Scout Picks

Gameweek 38 Scout Picks – Goals expected outside Man City and Liverpool games

We’ve included three attacking players from Liverpool and Manchester City for our final Scout Picks of the season.

The two title-chasing clubs may be the only ones with anything left on the line to play for other than proud, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be goals elsewhere.

Using the Scout Squad submissions by Paul, Neale, Az and Peter, and an analysis of the Fantasy Football Scout members data, we have come up with a XI for you.

For the last time in 2018/19, we line up in a 3-4-3 formation and at a total cost of £82.8m, we are £0.7m inside our budget.

Goalkeeper

Sergio Rico (£4.4m) finds himself in the Scout Picks at just the right time to make sure we didn’t go the whole season without including one of Fulham’s defensive assets. Name-checked by three of our pundits, and selected as the best option by Paul, the Cottagers’ shot-stopper faces a Newcastle attack that has managed just three big chances in their last six away matches, the worst of any team in that time. Meanwhile, no goalkeeper has more saves than Rico in their last six at home.

Defender

Aymeric Laporte (£6.3m) was an easy inclusion for the Gameweek 38 Scout Picks. Manchester City have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League outings and travel to Brighton on the final day of the season. The Seagulls are bottom of the league for shots on target, big chances and goal conversion over their last six at home. Laporte himself has added two attacking returns in the last six Gameweeks and his threat from set pieces is always in his favour.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£5.8m) is once again our chosen representative from the Liverpool defence. Price continues to be on the right-back’s side as well as his attacking potential. Compared to colleagues Andrew Robertson and Virgil van Dijk, the England international has the superior minutes per chance and minutes per chance created in the last six home matches. In that time, Liverpool are in the top two for fewest shots allowed in the box and big chances conceded.

Luke Shaw (£5.0m) completes our three-man defence ahead of Cardiff’s trip to Old Trafford. Manchester United may not be in the best form right now but the Bluebirds have been sufficiently poor on their travels this season that we believe a clean sheet at least is on the cards. In their last six away matches, Cardiff have been in the bottom two for shots inside the box and big chances. Meanwhile, Shaw himself has created more big chances than any other defender in the last six matches.

Midfielders

Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) should be back in the Liverpool side on Sunday afternoon for the visit of Wolves following his concussion and he comes into Gameweek 38 as the Scout Squad’s unanimous best midfield option. The Egyptian remains on an incredible run of form that has seen him get at least one attacking return in each of his last six matches in a row – his longest stretch without a blank all season. In those fixtures, no player has registered more shots on goal, efforts in the box or shots on target than Salah either. Wolves might have a good record against the top-six but considering they rarely keep clean sheets, Liverpool’s Egyptian star certainly has what it takes to reward his owners in Gameweek 38.

Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) is our chosen Manchester City attacker for the trip to Brighton. In the last six away matches, none of his colleagues has managed more shots in the box or efforts on target, while he also has the best expected goals (xG) score among Manchester City players in that sample. That has translated to 11 attacking returns on the road this season, more than any of his team-mates in 2018/19.

Sadio Mané (£10.3m) has been one of the most reliable attacking options in home matches this season. The Liverpool man has 12 goals in his 11 Premier League outings at Anfield, which have come from some encouraging underlying statistics. In the last four at home he has the second-highest number of big chances among all players, as well as the second-best xG too. Just as is the case with Salah, Wolves’ have asked tough questions away at top-six sides in 2018/19 but are yet to keep a clean sheet.

Nathan Redmond (£5.5m) looks like one of the most appealing budget midfielder for Gameweek 38 as Southampton host Huddersfield on Sunday afternoon. The Terriers are bottom of the league for shots allowed in the box over the last six away matches, as well as for their 18 goals shipped. Meanwhile, Redmond currently ranks fourth for big chances and third for xG out of all players in their last four at home.

Forwards

Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) looks set to enjoy the final day of the 2018/19 season. In the last four home matches, no player has registered shots inside the box, more efforts on target or more big chances. That has yielded five goals and an assist ahead of a meeting with Chelsea at the King Power Stadium. The Blues are still without a clean sheet on the road in 2019, will be without the injured N’Golo Kanté and Antonio Rüdiger while doubts hang over the fitness of Andreas Christensen too. Furthermore, Chelsea come to Leicester just a few days after playing 120 minutes against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League, which will have almost certainly drained them physically and mentally.

After Bournemouth’s troubles on their travels earlier this season, Callum Wilson (£6.8m) has all of a sudden become the king of football on the road in the closing stages of the campaign. In the last four away matches, no fit player has been afforded more big chances or a higher xG score. Furthermore, in such games, Wilson is also second-best for shots on target, so he stands a good chance of converting his opportunities. His Gameweek 38 opponents Crystal Palace are in the bottom four for goal attempts conceded in the box over the last four home matches, are without centre-backs James Tomkins and Mamadou Sakho while Scott Dann is now a doubt.

Shane Long (£4.7m) completes our Scout Picks team for Gameweek 38 as another option who gets to enjoy facing that travel sick Huddersfield side. We’ve already covered how vulnerable the Terriers will be when they come to Southampton, as Redmond also has decent points potential this week. Long himself has actually been afforded more big chances than the midfielder in his last four home matches, ranking third best in the whole league. His accuracy of 57% over that period suggests his chances of converted more big opportunities are quite high.

Substitutes

Budget man Yan Valery (£4.1m) gets a place on the bench for Gameweek 38 ahead of Huddersfield’s visit to Southampton. The Saints have not exactly been adept at keeping clean sheets under Ralph Hasenhüttl but their visitors on Sunday remain the division’s joint-lowest scorers on the road in 2018/19.

Like his colleague Wilson, Ryan Fraser (£6.3m) has been impressive on the road of late with six attacking returns in his last Premier League away trips. He will also get to play against a potentially makeshift Crystal Palace side who have struggled at home this season.

Marcus Rashford (£7.3m) is probably one of the few attacking Manchester United options we can be confident will get a start against Cardiff on Sunday afternoon. There is not a great deal of form to go on for the forward but given the Bluebirds are in the bottom three for shots conceded in the box over the last six away matches, he should get plenty of chances.

Community Champion

Representing the community against the Scout Picks in Gameweek 38 is Karan14. He has opted for a 3-4-3 of Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk, Kompany, Laporte; Redmond, Bernardo Silva, Pogba; Wood, Mitrovic, Zaha

The community member who beats our picks by the biggest margin over the campaign will win a £100 Amazon Voucher and a place in our Contributors and Moderators League for the following season.

It was a win for the Scout Picks over Greyhead in Gameweek 37 by a 46-45 scoreline. fclackless‘s winning margin of 33 points (77-44) in Gameweek 10 is still the current target to beat.

3,966 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Pras United
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Would appreciate some votes on my last 2 FTs for the season:

    A. Salah + Long
    B. Pogba + Vardy
    C. Pogba + Redmond

    Cheers!

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 9 days ago

      A

      1. Pras United
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Ta

    2. captainjilflex
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Tough one to call without seeing team

      1. Pras United
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Why should it matter? Asking who scores more this week.

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          you didnt ask that you asked about transfers

          1. Pras United
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 9 days ago

            How is that different 🙂

            I wouldn’t transfer a combo who scores less points

          2. Point-one short
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 9 days ago

            This, plus whether you have a reasonable sub is relevant if eg Long is benched.

            1. Pras United
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 9 days ago

              Ok cheers for responding

    3. Point-one short
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Rest of team?

      1. Pras United
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        See above

        1. Point-one short
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          See above

          1. Pras United
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 9 days ago

            See above

    4. Amey
      1 month, 9 days ago

      A

      1. Pras United
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Thx dude

      2. Amey
        1 month, 9 days ago

        You're a United fan too right ??
        What score are you expecting from Pogba ??

        1. Pras United
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          It’s the last game at OT and pressure is firmly off again. I expect 2-3 goals from Utd but of course depends if Pog gives a #%¥$. If yes, then a goal/assist.

          1. Amey
            1 month, 9 days ago

            Cool 🙂
            If you think pogba can get a haul, i like C option more than A

            1. Pras United
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 9 days ago

              Tbh I tend to agree. But doing Salah as a defensive transfer so I have 9/10 top owned players in 10k. Boring I know - but would quite like to stay near 5k.

              1. Amey
                1 month, 9 days ago

                Great OR & good choice
                Gives you solid © option too.
                GL mate 🙂

                1. Pras United
                  • 7 Years
                  1 month, 9 days ago

                  You too!

    5. Don Van White Jam
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Maybe figure it out for yourself if you're going to insist on being such a hole when people do reply to your mundane request...

    6. Yank Revolution
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      I would would want to have Mo over all of those, so A

  2. Bad Kompany
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 9 days ago

    How important is a full bench this week?

    1. Scotty B
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Quite

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Depends very much on who you have 🙂

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Robertson, valery, Cathcart, pogba, and long

        Would be fine if two are benched and I think they al should play.

        Have son but would rather get a forward and Laporte than a mid

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          You should be ok with two on the bench mate then if you want to keep son. Safest move is to replace son, though you’ll be very unlucky to need third bench.

          1. Bad Kompany
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 9 days ago

            Cheers! I know it sounds stupid to keep son but don’t think it’ll matter and slightly prefer a different player

    3. Pras United
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Could have unexpected rotation in 8/10 games so would be wise to have at least a good first sub (most have Jota/Jim which is fine)

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 9 days ago

        I’ll have 1 good first sub and a decent second one.

        Should be fine, right?

    4. Amey
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Really depends on players in 11 mate.
      I have Jimenez Doherty & ill Yoshida 😛

    5. Point-one short
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      "You don't need decent playing subs" I said last year before gw38. Only 7 players played and I slipped from 7.5k to 17.5k OR...

      1. Amey
        1 month, 9 days ago

        😮

      2. FPL Pillars
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Wow that’s brutal. Totally self inflicted however 🙂

  3. Kalju75
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Any news about robbo?

    1. captainjilflex
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Should be fine according to Klopp so I’m starting but making sure I have a decent sub

      1. Kalju75
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Ok thanks.i assume salah is starting too?tough choice captain salah or aguero?

        1. captainjilflex
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          Yeah pretty sure Mo is fine. He has served his concussion protocol. I’d captain Salah but the flag would put me off...

  4. Salah-lah-di-dah
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Chances of Eriksen starting? Would you get rid for a -4? Doherty will come on if au keep him and he doesn’t start. Thanks

    1. Pras United
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Keep

  5. Amey
    1 month, 9 days ago

    If you're chasing OR:

    A. Son Jimenez >> Redmond Vardy (-4)
    B. Son jota >> Redmond Mane (-4)
    C. Son Jota Aguero >> Salah Redmond Vardy (-8)
    D. Son Jota Hazard >> Salah Fraser Redmond (-8)

    Thank you !!

    1. Pras United
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      B for me. No way a -8 pays off in 1 week.

      1. Amey
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Thank you.
        On B exactly atm.
        Trying few things 🙂

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      I wouldn’t go hit crazy for one GW if chasing OR IMO. Taking out Kun for example for a hit is likely not a good idea for for OR

      1. Amey
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Cheers mate 🙂

        B looks better then

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          B is sold yeah. Gives you pool coverage and Redmond is understandable pick considering plum fixture.

          1. Amey
            1 month, 9 days ago

            Yeah

        2. FPL Pillars
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          Though you can get Mané for free? I would be ok with playing Jota and no hit.

          1. Amey
            1 month, 9 days ago

            Nope
            Out of cash in that case.
            Last gw o should have sold Son for Hazard 2/3 days before deadline instead of Mane to avoid hit this gw 😮

            Going to © Redmond so he's first name on the team sheet 😛

    3. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      wouldnt take a hit, simple as

      1. Amey
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Thank you 🙂

    4. Point-one short
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      A or B I think, probably B

      1. Amey
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Yep. Onto that atm.
        Was trying few things.

        Thank you !!

  6. Scotty B
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    De Gea
    Cathcart VVD Bednarek
    Salah Son Babel Mane
    Lacazette Jimenèz Wilson

    Gunn Richarlison Doherty Dunk

    Is Son & Jimenèz > Pogba & Rashford too obvious?

    1. Licky
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Redmond & Vardy?

      1. Scotty B
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        That is possible but I'd have £1.7m ITB left over

        1. Pras United
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          You will get that back as a cheque via Royal Mail

        2. Point-one short
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          Bumper starting budget next season. 🙂

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      the transfers you suggested are good

      1. Scotty B
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Or Moura & Vardy?

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          the ones you suggested are better than any other combination

  7. michudagawd
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Lloris
    Valery Laporte Robbo
    Mané JWP Babel Hazard
    Jimenez Rashford Aguero

    Foster - Doherty Masina Son

    1 FT, 1m itb

    Looking at doing either:
    A) Hazard + Son ➡ Sterling and Pogba/Fraser -4
    B) Hazard + Jimenez ➡ Sterling + Wilson -4

    Edging towards B. Or should I be looking at doing something else.

    Cheers.

    1. subhojit123
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      B

  8. Choupo Trap House
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Vardy or Wilson? Bournemouth's recent xG is insane.

    1. wernerhedgehog
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Did Wilson because he's explosive away due to his counterattacking style. But i've heard things like Solanke should play a game, King a threat etc.

      1. Forza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Solanke's out, according to the FFS team news.

      2. Choupo Trap House
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Solanke is injured. Can't really see Wilson not starting.

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      their xg is insane bc of brighton and soton games, palace away a diff prospect entirely

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Missing a lot of cbs and the ones playing are dreadful. Also Bournemouth scores a lot from counter attacks and palace concedes a lot from them

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          palace defend well as a unit, don't think scott dann potentially being injured is the end of the world

          1. Point-one short
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 9 days ago

            True, Tomkins and Sakho are decent at defending counter attacks.

            1. Bad Kompany
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 9 days ago

              Both are out...

              1. Amey
                1 month, 9 days ago

                Exactly !

          2. pingissimus
            1 month, 9 days ago

            Dann out is a big worry. There’s really no one left - I expect Ward to fill in there which means PvA back

            I’ve been very bullish about Palace defence at home but this switches things around. Still no goal fest but advantage Bournemouth

            They’re still better as a unit than Huddersfield Southampton and bombing Brighton but now I think Bournemouth could return better.

            1. CAPA
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 9 days ago

              Is Dann definitely out?

          3. Sessegnon Blanc
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 9 days ago

            But Speroni in goal??

        2. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          and no they dont, not at home

  9. subhojit123
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Guys... Any suggestion on the below team -
    Fabianski
    TAA WBA Shaw Kompany
    Mane Sterling(C) JWP Pogba
    Aguero Vardy

  10. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Last moves of the season done...

    Son>Redmond
    Duffy>Laporte

    Foster
    Valery Laporte Robbo
    Salah(c) Mane Eriksen Redmond
    Aguero Jimenez Gray

    Need a good one to finish in the teens. Good luck all!

    1. Pras United
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Nice moves- good luck!

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      You blotted your copybook in GW33 by taking hits - most unlike you! Well done for being so restrained in the other weeks. You should do well with that team but I hope that Roobo is OK to start.

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        quite like "Roobo" 🙂

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          scottish accent

        2. shirtless
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          Ha lol. I had to as only had 5/6 starters. It couldn't really fail as the -8 was really only a -2 if they all started and performed. I did Sterling, Pogba, Rashford > Salah, Tielemans, Vardy(c) for a 47(-8) gain! First and only hits for two full seasons!

  11. Greenbackbøøg…
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    What are the thoughts on Deulofeu on here? Think he could do well

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      watford are garbage (though so are west ham) and will have half an eye on cup

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        So they are garbage and yet have reached the FA Cup Final .........?

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          correct

    2. Brosstan
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      I have him but very concerned he might be rested for FA Cup Final

      1. Greenbackbøøg…
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Gracia's comments say he'll take it one game at a time though

  12. fr3ddy
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Jimmy to Wilson for a hit to have some fun? I expect 2 from Jimmy, and definitely possible for Wilson to haul

    1. Bad Kompany
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Yes. I’m probably going to do it

      1. fr3ddy
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Great minds 😆

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      obviously not a good move but if you want to "have fun" do whatever you want, why ask

  13. Nightf0x
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Loris
    Robbo taa valery doherty*
    Sterling mane redmond deulofeu
    Aguero rash
    (Foster - bednarek jimy son)

    Which?

    A- doherty to laporte, 442
    B- son to pogba/fraser/bsilva, 352
    C- jimy to wilson/zaha/wood, 343
    D- doherty son -4 to laporte pogba/fraser (or) shaw bsilva, 352
    E- doherty jimy -4 to laporte wilson/zaha/wood, 343

  14. FPLinho
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Rather have Salah or Mane this week?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      salah every single week?

  15. PMz
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Leading my ML by 19 points and my rival has taken an 8 point hit. He has Hazard but may have swapped him for Salah. I've got 2 frees and 0.0 ITB so not much to play with. I'm thinking Son + Jim > Redmond + Vardy. Thoughts? Team:

    Foster (Ryan)

    Laporte TAA Valery

    Pog Mane Son Sterling

    Jimenez Aguero Gray

    Subs: JWP Coady Duffy

  16. KUNingas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    A) Eriksen + Son + Jimenez -> Salah + Fraser + Long (-4)
    B) Son + Jimenez -> Pogba + Wilson

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      b assuming you have aguero/sterling to captain

      1. KUNingas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Yes Aguero

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          think that is wisest then

  17. SkeletONv01
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Rondon (C) lets do ittttt.

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      good if you hate points

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Not a good pick. Newcastle got one of the worst big chances created in the league away from home. Hence the Rico pick in the scouts picks

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        They might be in for a surprise.

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 9 days ago

          I mean I do not think Fulham are defensively great but Newcastle really not nothing to play anymore.

    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      I think Newcastle could be the dark horses of this week. It wouldn't surprise me to see Rondon and/or Perez do well.

  18. wernerhedgehog
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 9 days ago

    This is random but I developed my own prediction 'engine'. Just posting here to keep record and check if it's any good over GW36-38.

    GW38 Overperforming: Watford
    Underperforming: Bournemouth & Southampton

    Top 3 Matchups:
    1. Man Utd win (vs cardiff: Confidence 4, hi-scoring 3)
    2. Bournemouth win (vs palace: Confidence 4, hi-scoring 3)
    3. Tottenham win (vs everton: Confidence 4, hi-scoring 1)

    Notables:
    - City, Liverpool, Southampton wins (Confidences 3.5, hi-scoring 2)
    - Watford-West Ham (Even, hi-scoring 3)
    - Burnley-Arsenal, Leicester-Chelsea tight games
    - Fulham wins Newcastle (Confidence 3, hi-scoring 2)

    n.b: Hi-score means high total goals, not necessarily wins.
    ps: have separate data on weaknesses.
    Previous week: https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/20327585

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      you posted this a few weeks ago but without any explanation of how your "engine" works im not sure what we're supposed to read into it. not sure why you'd assume anything you could come up with is better than bookmaker probabilities

      1. wernerhedgehog
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 9 days ago

        it’s just my own practice tbh as above. practicing readability of my work, scraping data etc

        Detailed explanation is tough. Principle: find massive outliers in (1) expected rank vs observed rank of a metric within a team (2) head-2-head rank of a metric.

        Initial confidence score is the difference between the FDR of 2 teams; then add/subtract accordingly. For situation (1) - difference of >1 quartile (ie. 5 places) is significant. Situation (2) - difference of >2 quartile (10 ranks)

        Situation (1) eg - defence rank. Generated my own defence stats and expected defensive rank, then compared it to xGA rank. If team A xDef rank is lower than xGa rank by 5 - underperforming. Add/subtract from confidence score. https://i.imgur.com/q53cRBN.png

        Situation (2) eg - situational weakness. Compare team A’s set piece conceded rank (eg 12th) vs team B’s set piece scored rank (eg 2nd). Difference is 2 quartiles (>10 ranks), thus weakness, subtract from confidence. https://i.imgur.com/8xTrbah.png

        What to take from it, nothing. Just me trying to get close to bookies with my maximum effort, without using their derived stats like bookie odds. Posting here gives me an impetus to gather and present in a timely manner, is all.

        If someone wants an opinion on what player/team to take from a random internet bloke, its here I refer to.

  19. Pat Bonner
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Any Liverpool training pics from today? Robbo involves?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      no press dont have access every day afaik

      1. Pat Bonner
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        Cheers, hoping for some more info before the deadline!

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          dont think we're likely to get it. klopp said he should be fine but that was in the morning, and then he ended up not training. so wonder if he suffered some sort of reaction after klopps comments.

    2. Amey
      1 month, 9 days ago

      I read a comment on First page this Article that he was in training today.
      No link was present though

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 9 days ago

        I've seen comments both ways, none have a source.

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          1 month, 9 days ago

          people misinterpreting comments from yesterday

        2. Amey
          1 month, 9 days ago

          Yep
          Not selling for sure though

      2. EMBOLOFAN
        1 month, 9 days ago

        seen no evidence of this anywhere

  20. merin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Son -> Mili / Fraser the best transfer?

    Guaita Foster
    Robertson Laporte Doherty Yoshida Valery
    Sterling Mané Son Pogba Hojbjerg
    Aguero Jimenez Wilson

    1.1 ITB, 1 FT

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      difficult one because you already have pogba and 3 city. i'd rather have jwp than either of those, or you could take a punt on eriksen

  21. Waylander
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Play one, lads.

    A) Bednerak
    B) Jiménez
    C) Jota
    D) Wilson (-4)

    Thanks.

    1. Mork calling Orson
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      A

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      a not close

  22. Mork calling Orson
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Lloris
    TAA Laporte Valery Femenia
    Pogba Hazard Mane JWP
    Aguero Rashford
    (Ryan, Jimenez, Masina, Son)

    Would you rather
    A) Lloris > Ederson
    B) Hazard Son > Salah Maddison (-4)
    C) Hazard Jimi > Salah Long (-4)
    D) Something else ???

    Have been on A all week but worried about impact of Thurs on Hazard.
    B & C lets me bench Kiko.

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      son to bilva

  23. Hargo
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Foster Ryan
    Robertson Valery Shaw Doherty Cathcart
    Sterling Mané Jota Höjbjerg Son
    Aguero Jimenez Wilson´

    1FT 2.6 ITB

    Best Son replacement?

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      could punt on haz but pogba probably more sensible

  24. Nightf0x
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Loris
    Robbo taa valery bednarek
    Sterling mane redmond deulofeu
    Aguero rash
    (Foster - doherty jimy son)

    Which?

    A- doherty to laporte, 442
    B- son to pogba/fraser/bsilva, 352
    C- jimy to wilson/zaha/wood, 343
    D- doherty son -4 to laporte pogba/fraser (or) shaw bsilva, 352
    E- doherty jimy -4 to laporte wilson/zaha/wood, 343

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      son to pogba

  25. Bend It like Trippier
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Son To:
    a)Lucas M. b)Bilva (3-5-2)
    C)Kompany D)Shaw (4-4-2)
    ???

  26. Manani
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    SOn replacement?

    got 11.8m

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      sterling, pogba

      1. EMBOLOFAN
        1 month, 9 days ago

        mane

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Anything wrong with Sterling? Pogba could be a winner but then he might just stroll around waving goodbye.

  27. Benteke Fried Chicken
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Can Billva still haul if pushed into
    Midfield?!

    1. Amey
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Quite unlikely imho.

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      is this a poem

  28. aha_berg
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    This is the most unsure I've been on my transfers for quite a while.

    Foster
    Trent Valery Bednarek
    Sterling Salah Mane
    Aguero Jiminez

    Thoughts on the best combo to join them (have 2fts to make it happen)?
    A) Laporte + Redmond
    B) Laporte + Moura
    C) Redmond + Rondon
    D) Moura + Rondon
    E) B.Silva + Rondon

    1. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      e but prefer pogba and long or something

  29. Tmel
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Foster
    TAA Robbo Laporte Valery
    JWP Mane Sterling Pogba Son*
    Kun
    (Ryan Llorente Jimenez Doherty)

    a) Son > Fraser
    b) Son > Redmond
    c) Son & Llorente > Redmond/Fraser & Wilson (-4)
    d) Son & Jimenez > Redmond/Fraser & Vardy (-4)

  30. The Baby-faced Assassin
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 9 days ago

    Chasing 40 points in ML, is KdB too risky?

    1. Amey
      1 month, 9 days ago

      YES

    2. EMBOLOFAN
      1 month, 9 days ago

      he's trained in the past 2 days, if it's 40 points or nothing and replacing son, you could do worse

    3. Yank Revolution
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 9 days ago

      Pass