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Early kick off time

FPL early kick off and performance

Let’s take a look at the players that were candidates for the armband and if an early kick off time had an effect on them, based on their returns.

Early kick off is 12:30 Saturday and 13:30 or earlier on Sunday. Return is either assist or goal from midfielders or strikers taking into consideration the captaincy and the fact that is less likely to captain a defender or a goalie.

Players involved

• Man City: Aguero, Sterling, Sane
• Liverpool: Salah, Mane, Firmino
• Chelsea: Hazard
• Spurs: Kane, Son, Eriksen
• Arsenal: Auba, Laca
• Man utd: Pogba, Rashford
• Wolves: Jimenez
• Leicester: Vardy
• Bournemouth: Wilson

In total 9 teams, 17 players all candidates for the armband in the biggest part of the season.

• 1st Gw Newcastle vs Spurs: None
Liverpool vs West Ham: Mane 16p Salah 8p. Firmino 5p.
• 2nd Gw Man city vs Huddersfield: Aguero 20p. Sane 14p.
• 3rd Gw Wolves vs Man City: None
• 4th Gw Leicester vs Liverpool: Mane 10p. Firmino 7p.
Cardiff vs Arsenal: Auba 8p. Laca 12p.
• 5th Gw Spurs vs Liverpool: Firmino 9p. Eriksen 5p.
Wolves vs Burnley: Jimenez 8p.
• 6th Gw West ham vs Chelsea: None
• 7th Gw West ham vs Man utd: Rashford 5p.
• 8th Gw Fulham vs Arsenal: Auba 15p. Laca 12p.
• 9th Gw Man utd vs Chelsea: Rashford 5p.
• 10th Gw Crystal palace vs Arsenal: Auba 8p.
Burnley vs Chelsea: None
• 11th Gw Bournemouth vs Man utd: Rashford 5p. Wilson 7p.
• 12th Gw Liverpool vs Fulham: Salah 8p.
• 13th Gw Bournemouth vs Arsenal: Auba 8p.
• 14th Gw Chelsea vs Fulham: Hazard 6p.
• 15th Gw Blank
• 16th Gw Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Salah 21p. Firmino 9p.
• 17th Gw Man City vs Everton: Sane 10p. Sterling 6p.
Brighton vs Chelsea: Hazard 13p.
Southampton vs Arsenal: None
• 18th Gw Arsenal vs Burnley: Auba 13p. Laca 5p.
• 19th Gw Fulham vs Wolves: None
• 20th Gw Crystal palace vs Chelsea: None
• 21st Gw Everton vs Leicester: Vardy 8p.
• 22nd Gw West ham vs Arsenal: None
• 23rd Gw Wolves vs Leicester: Vardy 5p. Jimenez 5p.
Huddersfield vs Man city Aguero 5p. Sterling 10p. Sane 12p.
• 24th Gw Blank
• 25th Gw Spurs vs Newcastle: Son 11p.
• 26th Gw Fulham vs Man utd: Pogba 16p.
Spurs vs Leicester: Eriksen 13p. Son 6p.
• 27th Gw Burnley vs Spurs: Kane 8p.
• 28th Gw Blank
• 29th Gw Spurs vs Arsenal: Laca 4 Kane 7p.
Watford vs Leicester: Vardy 8p.
• 30th Gw Liverpool vs Burnley: Firmino 13p. Mane 14p. Salah 5p.
• 31st Gw Spurs vs Crystal palace: Eriksen 14p. Son 10p.
• 32nd Gw Man city vs Fulham: Aguero 10p.
• 33rd Gw Blank
• 34th Gw Spurs vs Huddersfield: Eriksen 6p. Son 4p.
• 35th Gw Man city vs Spurs: Aguero 5p.
Everton vs Man utd: None
• 36th Gw Spurs vs West ham: None
Leicester vs Arsenal: Vardy 13p.
• 37th Gw Bournemouth vs Spurs: None
• 38th Blank

Teams involved

• Man city: 6 matches × 3 players = 18 Captain candidates.

Aguero 4/6 returns 40 points.
40 points out of 201 = 19.9% of his points in early games.
Sterling 2/6 16p. 234÷16 = 6.8%
Sane 3/6 36p. 156÷36 = 21.8%
Total 9/18 returns

• Liverpool: 6×3= 18
Salah 4/6 42p. 259÷42 = 16.2%
Mane 3/6 40p.231÷40 = 17.3%
Firmino 5/6 43p. 160÷43 = 26.8%
Total 12/18 returns

• Chelsea: 6×1= 6
Hazard 2/6 19p.238 l÷19 = 7.9%
Total 2/6 returns

• Spurs: 11×3= 33
Kane 2/11 15p. 160÷15 = 9.3%
Son 4/11 31p. 159÷31 = 19.5%
Eriksen 4/11 38p. 161÷38 = 23.6%
Total 10/33 returns

• Arsenal: 8×2= 16
Auba 5/8 52p. 205÷52 = 25,3%
Laca 4/8 33p. 166÷33 = 19.8%
Total 9/16 returns

• Man Utd: 5×2= 10
Pogba 1/5 16p. 179÷16 = 8.9%
Rashford 3/5 15p. 128÷15 = 11.7%
Total 4/10 returns

• Wolves: 4×1= 4
Jimenez 2/4 13p. 181÷13 = 7.1%
Total 1/4 returns

• Leicester: 8×1= 8
Vardy 4/6 34p. 174÷34 = 19.7%
Total 4/6 returns

• Bournemouth: 4×1= 1
Wilson 1/4 7p. 168÷7 = 4.1%
Total 1/4 returns.

Conclusion

2 players that have scored more than 25% of their points on the early kick off games.
• Firmino 26.8%
• Auba 25.3%.
2 players in between 20% and 25%.
• Eriksen 23.6%
• Sane 21.8%.
6 players in between 15% and 20%.
• Aguero 19.9%
• Laca 19.8%
• Vardy 19.7%
• Son 19.5%
• Mane 17.3%
• Salah 16.2%
1 player in between 10% and 15%
• Rashford 11.7%
5 players in between 5% and 10%.
• Kane 9.3%
• Pogba 8.9%
• Hazard 7.9%
• Jimenez 7.1%
• Sterling 6.8%
1 player below 5%
• Wilson 4.1%

What are your takeaways from this data?

5 Comments Post a Comment
  1. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    If we assume that a player's expected percentage of points in early games is (number of early games/38*100%), then the expected and actual percentages are:

    Aguero (MCI): expected 15.8%, actual 19.9%, delta +4.1%
    Sterling: expected 15.8%, actual 6.8%, delta -9.0%
    Sane expected 15.8%, actual 21.8%, delta +6.0%
    Salah (LIV) expected 15.8%, actual 16.2%, delta +0.4%
    Mane expected 15.8%, actual 17.3%, delta +1.5%
    Firmino expected 15.8%, actual 26.8%, delta +11.0%
    Hazard (CHE) expected 15.8%, actual 7.9%, delta -7.9%
    Kane (TOT) expected 28.9%, actual 9.3%, delta -19.6%
    Son expected 28.9%, actual 19.5%, delta -9.4%
    Eriksen expected 28.9%, actual 23.6%, delta -5.3%
    Auba (ARS) expected 21.1%, actual 25.3%, delta +4.2%
    Laca expected 21.1%, actual 19.8%, delta -1.3%
    Pogba (MUN) expected 13.2%, actual 8.9%, delta -4.3%
    Rashford expected 13.2%, actual 11.7%, delta -1.5%
    Jimenez (WOL) expected 10.5%, actual 7.1%, delta -3.4%
    Vardy (LEI) expected 15.8%, actual 19.7%, delta +3.9%
    Wilson (BOU) expected 15.8%, actual 4.1%, delta -11.7%

    Average delta: -2.5%

    However, if we take the number of early games and total games actually played by each player instead of the number of early games and total games played by their clubs, then the results would be different and perhaps more meaningful.
    Also, this is a fairly small sample, and there are many factors that it doesn't take into account.

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Average deltas by club:
      LIV (3 players): +4.3%
      LEI (1 player): +3.9%
      ARS (2 players): +1.5%
      MCI (3 players: +0.4%

      MUN (2 players: -2.9%
      WOL (1 player): -3.4%
      CHE (1 player): -7.9%
      TOT (3 players): -11.4%
      BOU (1 player): -11.7%

      But again, same caveats as above.

    2. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Nice analysis. Other than Firmino and Spurs though I am not seeing a significant difference in performance.

  2. FPL price manipulators are …
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    This is the real research only FPL addicts undertake

  3. circusmonkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    You could maybe take a conclusion like 'Kane doesn't like early kick offs, Firmino does' but it depends on the oppo (e.g Man City v Huddersfield, week 2), their form anyway, all sorts. I suppose the clearest conclusion is the reluctance to captaining early starters that the scoutcasters have (and Mark had as I recall) is based on how failing makes them feel rather than the likelihood of blanking.