Douglas Luiz could unlock value in Aston Villa defensive assets

Aston Villa have confirmed the signing of Douglas Luiz from Manchester City for a reported £15m fee.

Luiz, 21, has never appeared for the Citizens despite signing for the club in 2017, spending the last two seasons on loan at Girona in La Liga; a part of the City Football Group.

The Brazilian, who has appeared for and captained his country’s Under-23 side, joins Dean Smith’s squad ahead of their return to the Premier League after a three-year absence, with Villa’s transfer spending having exceeded £100m in the current window.

A combative, defensive midfielder with leadership experience at an international level, Luiz is likely to play in a holding midfield role for Villa on their return to the English top-flight, shielding a combination of centre-halves Tyrone Mings (£4.5m), Ezri Konsa (£4.5m) and Bjorn Engels (£4.5m).

The 21-year-old has also been priced at £4.5m, offering scope for potential value in his debut season with Villa back in the Premier League.

The signing of Luiz yet again underlines the ambition of Villa for not only the upcoming campaign, but their intentions for re-establishing the club as a heavy-weight in the division.

The West Midlands side have made a serious statement of intent in the summer 2019 window, and Luiz’s addition to the squad yet again highlights how the club are set on ensuring that the B6 post code remains host to Premier League football.

Whilst central defensive midfielders have often been shunned by Fantasy managers for their inability to pick up clean-sheet points and unlikely chances of getting forward, it is perhaps the wider implications of this transfer that make for interesting reading.

If Luiz can deliver on the hype that has surrounded his arrival at Villa Park, but perhaps most poignantly, have a positive influence on Villa’s backline, then this could be a player with significant influence over Smith and his squad’s defensive solidity for 2019/20.

Upon signing, Luiz spoke of his passion for helping Villa on their return to the Premier League:

“I hope I can be a leader in the team. I hope I can help by bringing the ball out from the back. And although I don’t speak a lot of English, I hope I can help out by shouting orders from the back and live up to expectations as best I can.”

Smith was also enthusiastic about Luiz’s arrival at Villa Park:

“Douglas is an extremely talented young player with an outstanding pedigree who I am sure will fit nicely into our style and system of play.”

The History and Statistics

As the captain of Brazil’s Under-23s side, Douglas Luiz is a player with the potential to add leadership skills to Villa’s squad and who could play a pivotal role in commanding their defensive unit this season.

Having started his youth career at Vasco Da Gama in Brazil, Luiz rose through the ranks to earn his first senior appearance for his boyhood club at the age of 17.

26 senior appearances followed alongside three goals, but the scouting system of Manchester City had seen enough and made their move for Luiz, securing his signature on a five-year contract.

The Brazilian was initially loaned out to Girona where he impressed in his debut season, making 17 appearances for the club.

City and Pep Guardiola were impressed with Luiz’s adaptation to European football having made the step up from South America, and attempted to gain a work permit for a potential integration into City’s first-team squad.

However the Citizens’ plans were thrown into disarray as Luiz’s application was rejected, and a second loan-spell with Girona was sanctioned with a view to the player gaining more experience before a re-application to the home office.

Another successful season in Spain followed for Luiz, as he made 29 appearances for the club, but was unable to prevent their relegation from La Liga having finished 18th in the table.

This form from a 21-year-old Brazilian who had seemingly slipped under the radar alerted Villa’s sporting director Jesús García Pitarch, who is said to have been an admirer of the midfielder.

An enquiry from Villa led to extended negotiations, and it is the newly-promoted side under Smith who have secured the signing of this highly-rated prospect.

Comparisons

The Prospects

Central defensive midfielders are rarely top of the priorities list for Fantasy managers, yet the influence that Luiz could have over Villa’s backline in the 2019/20 campaign simply cannot be understated.

The club’s disposal of Glenn Whelan, released at the end of the 2018/19 campaign, has opened up a starting berth in Smith’s squad for a defensively orientated midfielder to shield the defence, and Luiz now has a chance to claim this spot for himself.

The underlying statistics attest to the fact that Luiz is unlikely to be charging forward and playing an influential role in Villa’s attacking efforts, ranking the lowest for minutes per key pass and second-lowest for minutes per shot from Villa’s four main central midfield options from last season in Whelan, Conor Hourihane (£6.0m), John McGinn (£5.5m) and Jack Grealish (£6.0m).

Yet in the spectrum of defensive solidity, Luiz ranks favourably – the Brazilian tops Villa’s midfield quartet from 2018/19 for minutes per interception (70.8) alongside being second for minutes per clearance (64.7).

Despite being relegated from La Liga in 2018/19, Girona placed ninth in the clean-sheet table, suggesting a considerable disparity in the attacking and defensive efforts of the Spanish outfit. Luiz’s contribution at the back certainly did not go unnoticed, and despite his club’s overall poor performance, Villa have certainly taken note of his defensive credentials as a holding midfielder.

This strongly supports the idea that Luiz is set to fulfil a role in Smith’s squad that is characterised by a combative, tough-tackling nature, but it is the wider influence of the 21-year-old that could be of serious interest to Fantasy managers in the upcoming campaign.

Villa’s opening fixtures are certainly favourable given their status as a newly-promoted side. Despite heading to the capital to take on Spurs in Gameweek 1, Smith’s side then face Bournemouth, West Ham and Everton at home in their next five fixtures.

The club’s defence has the potential to offer Fantasy managers an abundance of competitively-priced defensive options in 2019/20, with Konsa probably the favourite to start next to Mings in central defence while Matt Targett (£4.5m), Neil Taylor (£4.5m), Ahmed El Mohamady (£4.5m) and Frederic Guilbert (£4.5m) competing for full-back slots

The latter has been in fine form throughout preseason, registering three assists in separate performances to underline his credentials as a value-for-money full-back option for Fantasy managers. If Guilbert is able to combine this evident attacking ability with the propensity for clean-sheet points, which could be boosted by new signing Luiz, then there is even more appeal in investing in Villa’s defensive assets for 2019/20.

The specific example of Guilbert only points to a wider picture with regards to Villa’s assets and the potentially intrinsic influence of Luiz over their defensive prospects. Given City’s efforts to bring the Brazilian back to England, which were only thwarted by the refusal of a work permit from the home office, there is clearly a belief that this is a player with the capabilities to cut it in the English top-flight.

Villa remain confident that the increased wages offered to Luiz are likely to convince the home office of accepting his application for a work permit owing to increased taxation, and provided this is cleared prior to the start of the season then this is a player with a potentially huge part to play in the club’s return to the Premier League.

If Smith’s side can start strongly against Spurs in Gameweek 1, and follow this up with performances in the opening Gameweeks of 2019/20, then the form of both Luiz and Villa are certainly worthy of assessment for Fantasy managers in the upcoming Premier League campaign.

There is a huge amount of potential value in Villa defensive assets pricing, and the arrival of Luiz at Villa Park could be the key to unlocking that.