Leicester differentials could reward investment in 2019/20

This. New budget options always emerge. Otherwise they'd need to raise the budget every few years

Average was about 3.4 for 4.5 last year

Plus Using the average for the entire bracket will way undercall things

There are 29x 4.5 keepers, we can with a fairly high degree of certainty isolate the likely top end of the bracket in terms of points - I.e. nearly ~25x of those 29 can pretty safely be ignored

It’s Heaton, Pope, Henderson where the action is at... there may be one or two more but those three are the likely stand outs

I was excluding goalkeepers who never played or only played a few games. Perhaps the most average specific example would be Lossl. Average 2.5 points.
But that raises another complication - many of the 4.5 keepers were rotated i.e. dropped by their managers - Hart, McCarthy, Begovic etc. Ederson will not be vulnerable to that.

Those lower scores can very safely be removed from the average by removing the poorer performing GK’s from the sample

Any FPL manager (imho) should be looking at Heaton, Pope, Henderson & seeing the *potential* 140-150+ points - and weighing it up against the *probable* 160-180+ that the Brazilians offer

There are no guarantees

2.5 PPG is less than 100 points in a 38 game season.... Heaton has 2x 150 point seasons under his belt already, Pope has 1x, Fabianski did it last season, Etheridge did it last season

Even simplistically giving those keepers 38 games and 8-10 clean sheets is 120-ish before getting a single save - 20-30 points of saves net of deductions isnt a huge stretch at all, which using this 2.5 PPG average completely misses

"Those lower scores can very safely be removed from the average by removing the poorer performing GK’s from the sample"

You sound like someone who prepares the data for Boris Johnson. Why would you remove the low scores if you want an accurate analysis? Why would any good fpl manager only look at the maximum potential points rather than the likely average? I don't see you jumping all over Joelinton as potentially the next Jimenez and rightly so.

What I'm saying is that at this time last year, people were not anticipating low scores from Begovic and Hart. For all we know, this year Henderson and Heaton at newly-promoted clubs could just as easily turn out to be this year's Hart and Begovic as they can this year's Fabianski or Etheridge. You can't reasonably say that about Ederson.

“Why would you remove the low scores if you want an accurate analysis?”

Because I have a brain? There are 26 of the 29 4.5 GK’s for whom it can (pretty safely) be said will not be a factor points wise

This isn’t rocket science 🙂

It’s interesting however, that you still haven’t shared your workings for this 2.5 PPG sample - don’t keep us in suspense - we’re all ears 🙂

"What you’re basically saying is “if you ignore all the 4.5’s that have done well in the past, it looks like 4.5’s won’t do well this season”... "

Oh dear oh dear oh dear. Basic comprehension disaster.
I clearly did not say that. I said if you ONLY consider the overachievers you get a skewed picture. To get a BALANCED picture you need to consider the underachievers equally.

But have it your way - every 4.5 keeper is the next Etherington. Let's forget Fulham had a goalkeeper too. Carry on.

Don’t panic - I wasn’t replying to you 🙂

My reply to you was the other post above - Using the average for the entire bracket will way undercall things

There are 29x 4.5 keepers, we can with a fairly high degree of certainty isolate the likely top end of the bracket in terms of points - I.e. nearly ~25x of those 29 can pretty safely be ignored

It’s Heaton, Pope, Henderson where the action is at... there may be one or two more but lets be honest - no one is considering Boruc, Begovic, Travers, Hennessey (or at least I hope they’re not 😉 )

Why not? In GW1 last season Begovic was popular - we were lured by Bournemouth's easy opening fixtures, hence Bego, Daniels and so on having high ownership. Hart was also popular due to Burnley's previous season. Hennessey - yup, him too. They all seemed very viable bargains before the season started. You're only judging them in retrospect which again distorts the picture.

Hart and Hennessey averaged 3.6 and 3.7 respectively which is much better value than Ederson offers. There always is some risk at that price your odds are fairly high

In terms of why not - the reasons will vary for each exclusion

Whilst I lack the desire to go through all 25x 4.5 keepers - let’s take Begovic, Boruc, Travers for example - who in their right minds will start with one of those three when none are nailed, and their defence conceded 79 goals last season?

Would you mind also sharing which keepers and which scores make up your 2.5PPG average? It’s feels a bit on he “low” side as pointed out above 😉

*70 goals

"Would you mind also sharing which keepers and which scores make up your 2.5PPG average? It’s feels a bit on he “low” side as pointed out above

keyboard fail 🙁

My examples: over 3000 minutes - the beloved Ryan and Lossl.
Fair crack of the whip at over 2000 minutes - McCarthy.
Dropped by their managers fairly promptly - Hart, Hennessey, Begovic.

All of these bargain gks were deemed viable options before GW1 last season. It's only in retrospect that they're rejected now. Henerson and Heaton at promoted clubs are just as likely to be this year's Hart or Begovic as they are this year's Fabianski or Etheridge.

Help me understand this correctly - are you saying your 2.5PPG average for 4.5 keepers from last season excludes Fabianski & Etheridge?

It would be helpful to see he exact players & points totals you’ve used to arrive at he 2.5 PPG

As intuitively speaking - a 95 points total and Heaton, Pope, Henderson’s prospects this season just shouldn’t be in the same sentence

I've listed the specific goalkeepers I'm referring to in the post above.
Re. Etheridge - be honest now, no one, absolutely no one had him in their GW1 starting line up.
For those who started with Fabianski or Patricio fair play, you chose wisely, although Patricio at just over 3 ppm wasn't great.

I think that covers all the starting 4.5s apart from the Fulham GK who I can't even remember, but who's below-average performance probably balances out Fabby. So my average of 2.5 points each stands.

If your GW1 choice turns out to be this year's Fabianski, you've done well. But you have a 1 in 10 chance of getting it right from the off.

I’m going to take a leaf from your book here and quote your previous post 🙂

“Look at the AVERAGE number of points accrued by a 4.5 keeper last season - it was around 2.5 points per match. That should be your base.”

Can you list the keepers, their scores, and how you’ve got to 2.5 PPG - as it’s starting to look ridiculous now as a representation of what we can expect from Pope, Heaton, Henderson bs. The brazilian 6.0’s.

Your GW1 choice doesn’t need to be this years Fabianski, or Etheridge, or Ryan/Pope from the prior year, or Heaton from both the years before, or any of the other 4.5’s that have broken 150+ 😉

I already listed the keepers and you can see their scores on the FPL site. I'm not prepared to get bogged down in minutiae and repeat myself for those who refuse to see. You're going off speculative expectations, I'm going off raw data from last season.

But if you like, I'll sign off with this speculation. Currently, there are 10 starting keepers priced 4.5-5m owned by over 3%. It doesn't yet include Henderson but let's add him to bring the total up to 11. Going by previous experience, 2 of those will turn out to be good value and worth keeping for the season. 9 will turn out to be misjudged punts.

Don’t sign off just yet - we’re close to getting to the bottom of this I think 🙂

Does your 2.5PPG include Fabianski & Etheridge?

Please tell me this was not the sample you used?

I refuse to believe anyone would use this to represent anything - so either you’ve made an error in listing the player’s above... or something else?

Ryan 104
Lossl 99
McCarthy 73
Hart 69
Hennessey 67
Begovic 63

I'm not pouring over spreadsheets, I'm going off the figures on the FPL site. I don't have the figures fro Cardiff and Fulham (fortunately Lossl's is to hand).
I didn't include them in the initial 2.5. If we add them alone maybe the average goes up a couple of spots. If we are fair and include Fulham, maybe it's back to where I started. But if you insist on ignoring figures that don't confirm your bias, we end up wherever you want to be.

I only included the top 3. The other 3 played insufficient minutes so I didn't use them to get to my average. However, I did stress that you need to consider how many 4.5 bright prospects get dumped by their managers to get a full and accurate picture.

I’m afraid I’m still exactly where I was an hour ago before you started this rat hole with a fictitious 2.5 PPG that we allegedly “should use as a base” when judging Heaton, Pope & Heaton’s prospects versus the 6.0 Brazilians

Your position seems to have no discernible basis in fact (or at least none that you’re willing to stand over & be transparent with), seems totally impractical (I.e. we should use but part/non-nailed 4.5 jeepers from last year rather than Fab/Eth/Pope/Other 150’s) and instead seems to be much more focused on capitalising certain words and repeatedly quoting sections of others posts 🙂

As I said to the OP - I’m All for (informed) opinions

And I think the point people were making here is that there is a flaw in the logic being used to support the opinion - that being that Only looking at the ‘’available 4.5’s’’ misses The fact that Pope & Heaton have already gotten 150 in the past... and that Etheridge & Fabianski both smashed it at 4.5 last season

Henderson, Pope, Heaton could all easily do the same this year, or they might not... Ederson & Allison might get 180, or even push for 200 if they saved a few pens... or they might not... it’s all ifs & buts

Whatever. I'm tired of politicians wilfully ignoring data due to their Brexit agenda and trashing the UK economy, and I'm tired of seeing the same confirmation bias when I try to switch to something more relaxing. If you are so sure you know who's the best 4.5 goalkeeper for next season because of your expectations, you just go with that. Sorry I tried to help.

Ah the old “whatever” defence 🙂

Bravo 🙂

Andy, just get a 4.5m GK, (Pope or Heaton, Pope for me), transfer to the best 4.5m after there is enough data/WC and use your extra 1.5m to improve elsewhere. Do not get Ederson or Alisson. Get Lloris if you're feeling saucy.

Always seems to be a simple solution to a complex problem

Loving your optimism but I’d disagree with that.

Cheers! Based on that are you concerned they might get battered by the top teams?

I'm more confident than our good spell under MON who I disliked long before he walked out on us