Spot the Differential

Man City injuries could allow Mahrez to reward Fantasy owners

With many of the highly-owned players failing to deliver in recent weeks, differentials are becoming more and more important to Fantasy Premier League managers.

In Gameweek 7, the top 10 points-scorers all had single-digit ownership levels, proving that many of this season’s top performers are still hiding away.

It was another good week for this regular column though. Andriy Yarmolenko (£6.0m) and Chris Wood (£6.2m) lived up to their billing by registering a goal each.

Let’s hope for more of the same this weekend. Here are three exciting players owned by 5% or less ahead of Gameweek 8.

Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez has been in exceptional form recently

Price: £8.6m 

Ownership: 4.9% 

GW8 Opponent: Wolves (H)

A player averaging 6.4 points per game is always hard to ignore in FPL, although Riyad Mahrez (£8.6m) is much more of a hidden gem right now because he plays for Manchester City.

Had it not been for their ‘Pep Roulette’ rotation system, the former Leicester man probably would have been an essential asset weeks ago.

However, a unique opportunity has emerged which makes Mahrez a viable option, at least for now. 

With fitness concerns over Kevin de Bruyne this weekend and the risk of Bernardo Silva missing out (perhaps long-term), Mahrez seems likely to be involved from the start against Wolves.

Despite only starting four league games since August, he has registered two goals and five assists – one every 57 minutes. 

Mahrez has the same amount of FPL points as Sadio Mané despite offering a saving of £3.0m, which shows how appealing his points per million is.

The Algerian’s underlying statistics almost seem too good to be true and some may say that they are skewed. But form is all that matters to me. 

Over the last two Gameweeks, among all midfielders, Mahrez has the most number of touches in the opponents’ half (127) and the most number of touches in the final third (90). 

For good measure, he’s also had 9 attempts on goal during the same period – only John McGinn has had more. That in itself speaks volumes and boosts his credibility.

Man City are due to face a potentially fatigued Wolves team this weekend that lacks the squad depth to effectively manage their Europa League and Premier League commitments. If Mahrez starts, it would be hard to say he won’t be involved in the goals.

Andriy Yarmolenko

Yarmolenko has been in good form recently and earns a recall to the differentials picks

Price: £6.0m

Ownership: 4.0%

GW8 Opponent: Crystal Palace (H)

For this first time this season, I’ve decided to repurpose one of my picks from last week. 

Yarmolenko’s wnership has increased by 2.7% but is thankfully still below the 5% threshold and capable of propelling his owners up the rankings.

The West Ham midfielder has now registered three goals in his last four league games. For all midfielders priced at £6.5m or less he currently has the best points per game average (5.5). 

Also, during the last two Gameweeks, Yarmolenko has registered the joint-fifth most amount of touches in the final third among all midfielders (54). 

This Michu-esque form shows that he’s getting in the right advanced areas and is being rewarded for his efforts.

It is clear that Yarmolenko’s minutes were being managed in August and early September, to ease him back in after his long injury lay off but he’s now beginning to play the entirety of games. 

For this campaign, he is currently averaging a goal for every 125 minutes played, which is very respectable for a budget midfielder. 

Provided he stays fit and can maintain good performance levels he could end up with at least a dozen goals by the end of the season. 

West Ham’s next opponents are Crystal Palace. The Hammers have scored 10 goals in their last five matches against the Eagles and I expect more from them with Yarmolenko at the helm.

Oli McBurnie 

McBurnie will probably enjoy playing against Watford’s poor defence

Price: £5.9m

Ownership: 0.1% 

GW8 Opponent: Watford (A)

If you’re short on cash up top and are willing to take a substantial risk on an uber-differential then look no further than Oliver McBurnie (£5.9m). 

The Sheffield United forward has started four consecutive Premier League games for his team and, since Gameweek 6, among players priced at £6.0m or less, he has the joint-third highest number of shots on goal.

That period has pitted the Blades against Everton and Liverpool, so there’s every reason to believe he can continue to provide threat against Watford.

 Of course, it’s a concern that he’s only scored one Premier League goal during his entire career, which includes an additional 16 appearances for Swansea City. 

But last season he demonstrated his ability to find the net regularly and seems to be gradually adapting to life as a top-flight centre-forward.

In the Premier League, he clearly won’t match his goal tally from last season but I expect him to gradually improve by each Gameweek. 

Vicarage Road on Saturday could serve as an ideal opportunity for him. The Hornets have been completely woeful recently, even after their managerial change. 

McBurnie and Sheffield United could cause them more trouble after having impressed against some of the league’s more established teams since Gameweek 1.

Lessons Learned from Gameweek 7

911 Comments Post a Comment
  1. JenkoJunko
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Evening all! Nightmare this GW!

    Current squad:
    Pope Button
    AWB VVD Digne Soy Lund
    Salah Sterling KDB Mount Yarmo
    Greenwood Pukki Jota

    Options: AWB & Jota to.... -4
    A. Ota & Wood/Barnes
    B. Rico & Haller
    C. Rico & Abraham
    D. Timori & Haller
    E. Timori & Abraham
    Orrrrr...
    F. Digne & Jota to Ota & Haller

    Any help would be great! Hard one this week. GL all!

    1. KingOllie
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      E is probably best.

      I have Haller and if he blanks this week im selling

      1. bigdip
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        agreed

      2. JenkoJunko
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Can see Haller scoring this week.... Good fixture, No Milivojevic and Lanzini is back which is good for him. Thanks though.

  2. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Hmmm with minutes doubts for Son and Mount I might just swap Aguero to Auba so I have some more certain 90 minute players this GW. Is this a good enough reason?

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Whats up with Mount?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Probably nothing but FPL scaremongering and a lot of minutes recently.

    2. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Will be interesting to see if Mount plays 90 or 87 minutes

    3. payetisgod
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Just raised a question about this on previous page ha! is there any substance to this?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Son yes, Mount probably less so

        1. St Pauli Walnuts
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          Just catching up, why is Son a risk?

    4. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      im not sure. do you have any other city player??

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Sterling

  3. bigdip
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Ryan (Button)
    Otamendi, TAA, VVD (Digne Lundstram)
    Mount Salah, Sterling (C) Cantwell (Dendocker)
    Abraham Haller, Pukki

    0.5 ITB.
    Save FTand do Digne & Pukki to Tomori & Vardy for no hit next GW?

  4. fr3d
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    KdB keepers, who's first on your bench this week?

    Salah for me

    1. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      LoL
      Guilbert here

    2. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Auba

      1. Tempestic
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Cant captain him if hes on ur bench

    3. Old and Slow
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Cantwell

  5. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    KDB to Mahrez worth it if means if Son gets benched I will get Lundtram off the bench?

    1. Flaming Flamingo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Son will get minutes off the bench even if he doesn't start

    2. teneighty
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      What's wrong with Lundstram against a goal shy Watford?

      1. Old and Slow
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        This... I'm starting him vs Watford

  6. Aftermath
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Select one for this week

    A. Cresswell
    B. Saka
    C. Rico

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Saka.

      Take advantage before Laca is back.

    2. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      saka didnt play in europe right? think he will play against bournemouth?

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Great frontline soon of Auboom Saka Laca

  7. rowdog24
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Tell me I’m wrong

    WC team

    Pope (Button)
    Tomori, Soyuncu, Diop (Lund, Rico)
    Salah, Sterling, Mount, Yarmo (Donk)
    Auba, Vardy, Abraham

  8. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Rp

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Fail

  9. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    KDB >

    A) Mahrez

    B) D Silva

    C) Son

    D) other

    1. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Pepe

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. Lecky Legs FC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Pepe

    4. payetisgod
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Im back and forth between A and B : Might be nice to have D Silva when Aguero bangs a hatty as a non owner as hopefully he would assist a few of them ha!

    5. CelticBhoy1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Hmmm Pepe could be a good shout

    6. Old and Slow
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      D... Hold... Unless you aren't going to want him back for gw9 and pay a premium to get him...I guess that depends on what you paid

  10. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Greenwood --> Ayew a decent one week punt against whu away?

  11. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Which is the better pairing?

    a. Mahrez and Haller
    b. Yarmolenko and Auba

    ???

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. L S P
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      B

    4. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      B

    5. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Would B be for -4 and A for free?

      I am weighing up exactly these 2 options vs just keeping Kev and having my bench come on

  12. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    KDB and Aurier to Mahrez and Otamendi -4?

    Current team

    Pope
    TAA Tomori xxx
    Salah Mount Son xxx
    Vardy Abraham Haller

    Button Cantwell* Soyuncu Hanley*

    Rp

    1. The 12th Man
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      There decent moves

  13. Dthinger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Okay people. I need a long-term replacement for Fabianski. I am leaning towards Leno, despite Aresnal's woeful defense because none of the other keepers I can afford are playable for more than one or two fixtures:

    1. Pope- has two decent-ish fixtures, but I can see Everton scoring a few, and then he plays Chelsea
    2. Guaita-Plays WHA, but then two rough matches
    3. Schmeichel-plays LIV next, but pretty good after that (maybe I bring in McGovern this week and Schmeichel next?)
    4. Heaton-Surely Pukki is due a goal

    So I can't see any option better than Leno. Or should I just pick one for the next two fixtures and deal with it later?

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      3

      1. Dthinger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        McGovern for one week and then Schmeichel? or just Schmeichel straight away?

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          Just get kasper

  14. That Fantasy Guy
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Calum Chambers - Nailed?
    Looking to use 1 of my 2 FT to bring him in for Lascelles

    1. Boss Hogg
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      No way nailed.

  15. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    My subs:

    Dendonker - Soy - Wickham (I have Kdb)

    Would you do Dendo —> Saka (free) or save the FT?

  16. Ask Yourself
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    KDB > Felipe Anderson done. Tell me i’m A naughty boy.

    1. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      You already know

    2. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      That's enough internet for today

    3. Gooner Kebab
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      What a hero

    4. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Sounds more like Hans Christian Anderson

    5. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      These are all just the responses I wanted thanks guys

  17. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Hi....any advice on what to do here please? 0itb. Plan to wildcard after deadline

    Pope
    Vvd ota guilbert (rico soy)
    Salah Sterling kdb James (cantwell)
    Haller abraham pukki

    A....kdb to Mahrez (I'll want kdb back on wildcard at a potential loss of a vital 0.2m)

    B ..Cantwell to saka at 1 week punt

    Thanks

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      I am in the same situation, I will likely do B. Loss of 0.2 isn't worth it imo

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Also Saka not playing EL is a positive sign he'll start on the weekend

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers. Tend to agree

  18. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    KDB replacement for this GW;
    Could this GW be finally a good one for Pepe? Bournemouth at home...and 100% nailed. Or do we trust Mahrez starts ?

    1. Boss Hogg
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Mahrez should start.

      1. CelticBhoy1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        I'm currently making the same call. I've got Otamendi & Sterling captain but no Arsenal players, so Pepe could be a better option to spread the risk

    2. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Mahrez is hot and should start

    3. Lecky Legs FC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      I'm one week punting on him this weekend will bring KDB back after IB if fully fit might aswell go for it BOU at (H) could be were be gets confidence and starts scoring goals

  19. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Best defender for 4.5m or less?

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Lundstram.

      1. Boss Hogg
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Apart from Lundstram!!

        1. Dr. Agabuse
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          Lundstram

    2. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Rico

    3. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Tomori?

      1. Boss Hogg
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        0.1 short of Tomori!

      2. Dthinger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        never mind. He's 4.6

  20. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Kane and Nakamba to Auba and Saka for a hit?

    Or just Kane to Auba and play Lundstram

  21. Al-Chemy
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Currently got KDB, Cantwell, Aurier and Hayden on my injury list with no free transfers. Should I

    A) get rid of Aurier (-4), and can get in Bardy after IB
    B) Aurier and KDB out for Tomori and Sterling?
    C) just wait and hope Cantwell plays

  22. Legohair
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Sorry guys i havent watch any news about kdb all week, how long is he out? Thanks and sorry...

    1. Pinturicchio10
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Until after the IB I think.

        1. Legohair
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          Ok, is it good move for maybe just one week to do kdb->pepe? I bought kdb 9.9 so no major loss there and he might even drop i guess...

          1. Pinturicchio10
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Really don't like the look of this Pepe guy to be honest. Good fixture I suppose but that's about all I can say.

              1. Legohair
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                Yeah its differential i think and yes hes been weak so far but he will start to score points sooner or later thats for sure.

      • joelsprylar
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        I was thinking of roll the FT but since KDB is out i feel like i need to make a move. What to to here guys?

        1ft, 0,1 itb
        Pope
        TAA, VVD, Mina, Lundstram,
        Mane, Sterling, KDB*, Mount
        Pukki, Abraham

        Ryan, Lanzini, Martinelli, Soyuncu

        Bought De Bruyne for 9.5

        1. De Bruyne to Mahrez
        2. Lanzini to Yarmolenko
        3. Something else tasty?
        4. Save and hope that Lanzini will play

      • Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Best captain this GW from:

        A) Auba (BOU)
        B) Kun (WOL)
        C) Sterling (WOL)

        1. Hits from the Bong
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          B if KDB was playing. Can’t decide between B and C now

        2. Dynamic Duos
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          A if chasing , C if good OR atm.

        3. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          Possibly in that order

        4. Alonso The Great Midfielder
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          auba

      • FPL Forward Thinker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        I’d suggested Foden was not part of Pep Roulette

        Sterling Aguero Mahrez
        Dilva Rodri Bilva

        Was my prediction with Gundog and Jesus on bench and that Foden was not part of the starting equation.

        However, Foden started the Premier league fixture the last time Man City played Champions League and Premier league double header at Etihad days apart (April v Spurs)

        So let’s not even rule out Foden from Roulette Equation

      • Pinturicchio10
          4 years, 6 months ago

          Anyone else confident of a good score but not so confident of a green arrow this week? Have that weird feeling about this gw.

          1. Ajax Hamsterdam
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            I never know what to expect in FL to be honest

            1. Pinturicchio10
                4 years, 6 months ago

                True. You know what I mean though.. like 50-60 might not be enough for a rank jump even though its a very reasonable score.

            2. Twisted Saltergater
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              Bournemouth to beat Arsenal 3-1
              Jesus to score a brace
              Maddison to ruin the Liverpool CS

              Its all bound to happen 🙂

              1. Pinturicchio10
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  I like the first bit 😀

                • Alonso The Great Midfielder
                  • 12 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  liverpool cs already ruin by absence of matip

              2. Pinturicchio10
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  Pope
                  Lundstram / Tomori / Otamendi / TAA
                  Salah v / Sterling c / Son
                  Pukki / Wilson / Abraham

                  Start at -4. See what I mean... its good but its not great....

                • Weasel Boy
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  Nope.
                  Too many injuries and red arrows since GW3.

                  1. Pinturicchio10
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      Oh dear. Tough run huh? 🙁

                • Hits from the Bong
                  • 5 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  Any chance Tomori survives tonight? 99.5% on fplstats

                  1. FPL Forward Thinker
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    4 years, 6 months ago

                    Was 95.3 earlier in the day

                    Personally think he’ll be 4.7 Tomori morning

                  2. Pinturicchio10
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      Highly doubt it. No reason for the trend to change at this time.

                  3. Alexis Nonsense
                    • 8 Years
                    4 years, 6 months ago

                    Play:

                    A) Lundstram (Clean sheet likely?)

                    B) Pereira (No clean sheet but attacking return vs. Liverpool is possible)

                    1. Dr. Agabuse
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      lundstram

                    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
                      • 9 Years
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      No point owning a 6 m defender of you don't play him imo

                    3. Alonso The Great Midfielder
                      • 12 Years
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      id play pereira ofc

                  4. Eytexi
                    • 5 Years
                    4 years, 6 months ago

                    best 5.5m mid? Hearing Saka's name thrown about a lot.

                    1. Twisted Saltergater
                      • 14 Years
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      Jorginho?

                      If you're maxed on Chelsea players, then Saka could be a good short term punt. Likely to play LW vs Bournemouth.

                    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
                      • 9 Years
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      Short term could be gold for his price actually

                    3. FPL Forward Thinker
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      4.5 (rested last night) looks really decent short term.

                      Just check that he wasn’t left out last night for any other reason

                    4. Alonso The Great Midfielder
                      • 12 Years
                      4 years, 6 months ago

                      saka but really short form until laca back

                  5. konrad.sygula95
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 6 months ago

                    Would You wildcard this team?

                    Pope
                    Zinchenko/Digne/Robertson
                    Salah/Sterling/Kdb/Mount/Cantwell
                    Pukki/Jota

                    Bench: Heaton/Lundstram/Montoya/Greenwood