As Fantasy writers and managers, many of us place a lot of emphasis on underlying statistics in our research and articles.
Be it penalty box touches, attempts on goal or key passes, the key performance indicators (KPIs) in both attack and defence can help form our judgements on certain players and teams.
Of course, there is a subculture of Fantasy Premier League bosses who think the whole thing is a load of mind-cluttering claptrap and prefer to rely on the so-called ‘eye test’, gut instinct or basic figures such as goals scored and clean sheets.
There is a statistic that unites the two approaches: goal conversion rate.
This is a KPI that deals in cold, hard fact and tells us how clinical players are with the chances they are afforded.
Being presented with a host of goalscoring opportunities is one thing but if Fantasy assets are not ruthless enough when seeing the whites of a goalkeeper’s eyes, then all the underlying stats in the world mean nothing.
One only has to look at poor Che Adams’ (£5.6m) KPIs – the Southampton striker had five big chances in the first six Gameweeks, an eye-catching statistic had it not been for the fact that he failed to convert any of them or indeed a single one of his 12 attempts on goal overall.
Is goal conversion rate something we should pay more attention to, then?
It is certainly relevant: eight of the current top ten in the Premier League sit in the top half of the table for goal conversion, underscoring the very obvious point that better quality players convert a higher proportion of their chances, no matter how many or few.
The rest of this article will look at the goal conversion rate of various key FPL assets, to see if their current output is sustainable or likely to regress/improve based on past figures.
Lessons learned from Gameweek 9
- Everton 2-0 West Ham United
- Aston Villa 2-1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- Bournemouth 0-0 Norwich City
- Chelsea 1-0 Newcastle United
- Leicester City 2-1 Burnley
- Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Watford
- Wolves 1-1 Southampton
- Crystal Palace 0-2 Manchester City
- Manchester United 1-1 Liverpool
- Sheffield United 1-0 Arsenal
Become a Member and access our data
Memberships for the 2019/20 campaign are now available for the price of £17.50.
Join now to get the following:
- Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
- Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
- Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
- Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
- Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
- Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
- Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
- View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
- Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.
Members can view goal conversion rates on the Goal Threat tabs under Players Stats.