Pro Pundit Teams

Why I’m thinking of selling Raheem Sterling after another awful Gameweek

Let’s Talk FPL’s Andy reflects on another Gameweek to forget in his latest Pro Pundits piece.


Two weeks ago I scored 25 points in Fantasy Premier League. In my article I wrote: “It’s unlikely I’ll have a worse Gameweek all season”.

It got worse.

Gameweek 11 was brutal. While I scored eight more points than in Gameweek 9, the red arrow this week was huge and I fell nearly 700,000 places to 993,288. Where do I hand in my FPL badge?

Scoring 33 points in total, when John Lundstram (£4.8m) gets 21 on his own, is hard to take. It’s not even about benching him – I don’t even own him! I have no excuse.

My transfer was Nicolás Otamendi (£5.3m) to Harry Maguire (£5.4m). I don’t think many people were looking to bring in Manchester United defenders but I liked the look of the underlying defensive team stats, the next four fixtures and the potential for attacking returns. In hindsight I should have considered the fact that Man United don’t possess a player that can successfully deliver a ball into the box. Attacking returns look unlikely.

Tammy Abraham (£7.9m) was one bright spark. It feels as though the whole community is talking about Jamie Vardy (£9.4m) as a captain for Gameweek 12 but Abraham is only seven points behind the Leicester striker, with 175 fewer minutes played.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.2m) was the only other player I owned that didn’t blank. He did what he’s done all season: delivered attacking returns, but without a clean sheet. I’m just trying to imagine the huge scores once the clean sheets come.

When I look at my team for Gameweek 12 I don’t like what I see. 

I own too many players I want to get rid of, and not enough players I want for longer term. I feel like I’m behind on transfers already, and if I just look to patch the side up each week I’m going to be behind for some time to come.

Trying to be critical of my decisions so far this season, I’d say I’ve made too many short-term transfers. There was Kevin De Bruyne (£10.2m) to Son Heung-min (£9.6m), knowing I’d want the Belgian back as soon as he was fit. While I feel a bit unlucky not to have gotten points from Neal Maupay (£6.1m) this weekend, he was another player brought in knowing I’d want rid of him just two weeks later because of the fixtures.

That’s why I’m looking at taking my second points hit of the season and making it a -8. I want players I can potentially hold for six to eight Gameweeks so I can “reset” my team and not be forced to chase but instead can look for new opportunities over the next few weeks.

I’ve also got to look at priorities. Lundstram looks almost essential but ahead of a run against Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Wolverhampton Wanderers, I’m hoping the points will slow down before I have a spare transfer to use on him.

Looking at the Season Ticker in the Members Area, the fixtures for Leicester and Wolves over the next six to seven Gameweeks look great.

Raúl Jiménez (£7.2m) and Vardy have everything you could want from an FPL point of view: nailed-on, form, fixtures and penalties. 

Vardy is already highly owned and rising, but Jiménez is owned by 11.8% and dare I say it, still a bit of a differential?

They’re both picks you can rely on, and hopefully won’t give me needless headaches in the coming weeks.

We talk a lot about the underlying statistics and that Vardy can’t sustain them but the man is clinical, gets plenty of big chances and takes most of his shots in the box. My new front three would be Abraham, Vardy and Jiménez and, as you can see from the last four Gameweeks, that looks promising.

The tough decision for me is how to fund this move. A switch from a 3-5-2 formation to 3-4-3 requires three transfers and a lot of cash. It’s why I’m looking at removing Raheem Sterling (£12.1m).

It’s not an easy decision for me as I like the security blanket a player like Sterling provides and I’m certainly not taking him out thinking he’s not going to score plenty of points this season. If you look at the last four Gameweeks, he’s still getting plenty of chances and creating them, with an expected goal involvement (xGI) of around 3.4 over the last four Gameweeks.

The top reason I’m looking at making this move is captaincy. I don’t see me wanting to captain a Manchester City player until Gameweek 20, and even then Vardy plays West Ham and Liverpool face Wolves.

Instead of keeping one player at £12.1m who I won’t captain, I’d be spreading the funds to more value players, and also players who could be genuine captain options in the coming weeks.

With Liverpool’s fixtures looking extremely appetising over the Christmas period, a permanent Sadio Mane (£12m) captain could be ideal. Mohamed Salah (£12.3m) will have to show some serious form against Manchester City and Crystal Palace for me to not remove him in the next couple of weeks. The strategy would be to have one premium player who I can look to captain most weeks, with value players elsewhere. From there it’s just crossed fingers.

Captaincy this week however is going to be much more interesting and I’m looking away from Liverpool and Man City players. While it could be an open game, it also has the makings of a tight affair with Liverpool not wanting to lose their six-point lead and Man City not wanting to be nine points behind this early in the season.

If I bring in Jiménez and Vardy, then my front three are all contenders. Despite Aston Villa being middle of the road in terms of goals conceded they are still conceding a lot of shots in the box, the most over the last four Gameweeks with Palace a close second. That makes the Mexican a shrewd differential choice.

I think it’s very close between Vardy and Abraham: they’re posting good numbers, both are in good form and playing for teams scoring plenty of goals. The potential advantage for Vardy is that Arsenal are unlikely to either want to sit deep and defend or be able to, so that should leave space in behind. We saw against Crystal Palace some fantastic through-balls from James Maddison (£7.4m) and Youri Tielemans (£6.5m) which nearly had Vardy through on goal and I’m expecting to witness more of that on Saturday.

Choosing Abraham certainly isn’t a bad decision this week, but there’s something enticing about Vardy and that’s likely where I’ll place my armband.

I can’t help but wonder as I finish writing this if in two weeks time I’ll be back, wondering how I can get Sterling back in.


Andy is the face of Let’s Talk FPL, one of the leading Fantasy YouTube channels and has been a big part of the Scoutcast over a number of years. He has two top 10k finishes and an additional three inside the top 20k over nine years.

Lessons learned from Gameweek 11

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517 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ask Yourself
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    A) Bench Dilva and play Lundstram - Boring Tammy (C) + 2FTs next week

    B) Dilva > Martial and bench Lundstram - exciting super cool Martial (C) + 1FT next week

    1. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Oh boy this has made my day can’t wait for all the feedback, hope it isn’t split 50/50 again

    2. ElliotJHP
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Why is Martial cool? Definition of boring, is it going to be 5 points or 7 find out after the break.

      Go with A

      1. Ask Yourself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Lol thanks, fancy him to do well this week innit as Brighton’s away defence is pretty poo

        1. ElliotJHP
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          Haha just my opinion! Don't think the man is that explosive.

          But you are right, Brighton away is a nice prospect

          1. Ask Yourself
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 8 days ago

            I know mate I appreciate the input I need it. If only he’d have tucked that penalty away the other week the story might be different

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Myself being a helpless moth to the Martial flame it's B all the way there

      1. Ask Yourself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        There is just something about him isn’t there, it made so much sense at the start of the season and not a lot has changed but I can’t seem to block out the haters on this one

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          I'm totally behind Martial as an FPL pick - way too much going for him to not give him a crack of the whip

          He's not a 12.5 forward by any stretch, but he's sure as hell not a 7.5 midfielder either - well worth giving him as long as it takes for the next injury to kick in

          1. Ask Yourself
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 8 days ago

            Yeah those fixtures from an attacking perspective are so cool aswell. People are coming up saying their open play chances created is dangerously low, I’d be interested in seeing how that differs when martial plays vs when he was injured

            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              I just hope he for once makes it easy on us and goes out and gets an early goal or two to straighten his back & settle him a bit - he's an extremely dangerous forward when his head is on properly - Brighton are tricky these days though but should be a good watch

    4. NoWayJose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      The only way for me to fund Vardy is to in fact sell Martial this week and I'm actually strongly considering it

      1. Ask Yourself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Really? Interesting may I see your team and see if I can help you avoid this great loss x

    5. Garth Marenghi
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      A

      1. Ask Yourself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Thanks

    6. Bushman
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      I'm likely to do Dilva -> Martial providing he doesn't get injured tonight so B. Personally I wouldn't captain him but it could easily pay off with no standout skipper this week

    7. Devo-McDuff
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 7 days ago

      A for shiz.

  2. McSlu
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 8 days ago

    Little dilemma:
    A: Sterling, saka -> martial, maddison

    Or

    B: Sterling, greenwood -> maddison, jimmy

    Heaton
    Rico, soy, tomori, mguire, robbo
    Salah, Sterling, mount, KDB, saka
    Tammy, vardy, greenwood

    1. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 8 days ago

      Wouldn’t be selling sterling mate but surely Maguire and greenwood out if anything, your team is good

      1. McSlu
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Thanks mate! Have 2FT and 0,4 ITB, so I guess i have to do something

    2. redsallstars
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Maddison and jimmy great moves, nice fixtures coming up

    3. KDB4PREZ
        1 month, 8 days ago

        Sterling&KDB to Son& Mane/Salah for free? Own kun also

        1. ChelseaGuy
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 8 days ago

          Good moves since you have 2FT, you'll need to burn one at least

          1. KDB4PREZ
              1 month, 8 days ago

              Thanks man gl this week

          2. Amey
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 8 days ago

            Only Raz to Mane

            1. KDB4PREZ
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Fair mate but just felt like KDB sitting so deep and we all know son could explode. Safer option is as you say and then have 2FTs over IB again. Cheers pal

                1. Amey
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  KDB even if sit deep still created chances
                  Jesus wasted 1v1 assist from KDB (from 10 minutes i saw the match)
                  Son/Spurs on other hand, are sh.t atm

                  1. KDB4PREZ
                      1 month, 8 days ago

                      Very true mate was my feeling last week to but got a bit knee jerky there lol

                  2. Devo-McDuff
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 7 days ago

                    Rodri back soon so he may play further forward again. Getting rid of KDB will surely lead to regret I reckon.

            2. ChelseaGuy
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 8 days ago

              Sterling to Mane? Or save FT

              1. Ask Yourself
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 8 days ago

                Save imo his GW13 fixtures is way better

              2. FOO FIGHTER
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  For free absolutely.

                • Amey
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  Do it

                • ChelseaGuy
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  Ta for the responses. Will probably hold for now

                • Blame it on Traore
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  He's probably the only player I'd be inclined to make that switch for. I say go for it

                • redsallstars
                    1 month, 7 days ago

                    I would switch especially Liv at home

                • Amey
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 8 days ago

                  What are the fellow CHO owners doing with him ??
                  Not sure myself. Waste of FT to bring him in last gw 😮

                  1. KDB4PREZ
                      1 month, 8 days ago

                      Praying he starts buddy and re asses over IB

                      1. Amey
                        • 1 Year
                        1 month, 8 days ago

                        Cheers mate
                        I'm going to look for another punt (this or next gw) like Grealish/Trossard

                        1. KDB4PREZ
                            1 month, 8 days ago

                            Looking at both myself but even with fixtures I’m leaning towards trossard. Such a talent he is I had him from start and sold when Injured so will prob lean towards him personally

                            1. Amey
                              • 1 Year
                              1 month, 8 days ago

                              Exactly same 😀

                      2. TheDragon
                        • 1 Year
                        1 month, 8 days ago

                        I thought last week was his final chance but with Mount possibly a doubt and Pulisic having played 4 in a row, I think we’ve got to give him 1 more week (again!)

                        1. Amey
                          • 1 Year
                          1 month, 8 days ago

                          Yeah
                          Hopefully he starts & returns
                          Don't have a FT atm so would have to take a hit to replace

                    • TheDragon
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 8 days ago

                      Which do you prefer this week?

                      A) Pukki
                      B) Vardy -4

                      1. Hakim Ziyech
                          1 month, 8 days ago

                          I've got both & I expect a double party 😉

                          1. Hakim Ziyech
                              1 month, 8 days ago

                              So no need for a -4 imo

                            • TheDragon
                              • 1 Year
                              1 month, 8 days ago

                              Do you think Pukki can match Vardy this week?

                              1. Hakim Ziyech
                                  1 month, 8 days ago

                                  I think both watford & arsenal will lose so Pukki & Vardy should haul 🙂

                            • ChelseaGuy
                              • 3 Years
                              1 month, 8 days ago

                              B looks better longer term anyway
                              I'd go B

                            • Ask Yourself
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 3 Years
                              1 month, 8 days ago

                              Ah. Can you get B next week free? Who is your captain this week?

                              1. TheDragon
                                • 1 Year
                                1 month, 8 days ago

                                I can do it free next week.

                                Pukki, Abraham or Salah captain this week

                                I’m tempted to go Pukki captain (which is odd as I always play it safe with captain). Madness?

                                1. Ask Yourself
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  • 3 Years
                                  1 month, 8 days ago

                                  Hmmmm it’s tricky. Abraham can do a tidy job as captain. I’m not sure Vardy (c) + Abraham can safely outscore Abraham (c) + Pukki + 4

                                  I think A for now

                                  1. Ask Yourself
                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                    • 3 Years
                                    1 month, 8 days ago

                                    And don’t captain pukki lol

                            • Amey
                              • 1 Year
                              1 month, 8 days ago

                              Just get Vardy buddy
                              His ownership is getting higher now & he'll be rank killer if hauls

                          2. Malkmus
                            • 8 Years
                            1 month, 8 days ago

                            A'noon all. Which team is best? Differences in caps.

                            A- 352:

                            Pope (Button)
                            Robbo - Chilwell - Lundy (Rico - JANMATT/4.3)
                            Sterling - KDB - Mane - TIELEMANS - GREALISH
                            Vardy - Tammy - (Wickham)

                            B - 442:

                            Pope (Button)
                            Robbo - Chilwell - Lundy - TOMORI (Rico)
                            Sterling - KDB - Mane - MADDISON (DENDONKER)
                            Vardy - Tammy - (Wickham)

                            Ta!

                            1. Amey
                              • 1 Year
                              1 month, 8 days ago

                              A

                              1. Malkmus
                                • 8 Years
                                1 month, 8 days ago

                                Thanks !

                            2. redsallstars
                                1 month, 7 days ago

                                B. With A you be playing Grealish most weeks whereas B you have better defenders to rotate

                            3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 9 Years
                              1 month, 8 days ago

                              Any Salah captain considerers out there?

                              City minus Laporte & Ederson & with those merrgoround fullbacks... could be a perfect recipie for him to deliver the long overdue backlash

                              1. FOO FIGHTER
                                  1 month, 8 days ago

                                  I think Ederson will play but City defence is there for the taking.

                                  I have capped Salah 9 out of 11 GW's and got the armband on Vardy but with Salah being a slight differential I am pondering a switch. Wil see how I feel about it tomorrow.

                                  1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                    • 9 Years
                                    1 month, 8 days ago

                                    Vardy looks an overwhelmingly good choice this week allright

                                    1. Blame it on Traore
                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                      • 4 Years
                                      1 month, 8 days ago

                                      I RSVP'd to the party nearly a week ago with the armband

                                    2. FOO FIGHTER
                                        1 month, 8 days ago

                                        Yeah, I would not want to be an Arsenal defender at this point.

                                      • Bobby9
                                          1 month, 8 days ago

                                          But the gunners ll keep an eye against foxes ...cuz of the recent draw matches

                                    3. ChelseaGuy
                                      • 3 Years
                                      1 month, 8 days ago

                                      Thinking to get Salah instead of Mane actually. I know it seems odd but just have a gut feeling with Salah

                                  2. makaveli70
                                    • 5 Years
                                    1 month, 8 days ago

                                    1-TC Vardy
                                    2-TC Abraham
                                    3-none

                                    1. FOO FIGHTER
                                        1 month, 8 days ago

                                        3

                                        Keep for DGW.

                                      • Amey
                                        • 1 Year
                                        1 month, 8 days ago

                                        Could fly like anything this gw if it pays off (i think this is going to be a low scoring one)
                                        So go with your gut.

                                        C for me though as i don't trust any of them to get 10+ this gw

                                      • Corgzzzz
                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                        • 4 Years
                                        1 month, 8 days ago

                                        It's a gamble but I would say 70/30 in your favour....Vardy on fire and Arsenal worse than Barnet

                                      • Blame it on Traore
                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                        • 4 Years
                                        1 month, 8 days ago

                                        I'd save it for the doubles. Mane over two games for instance

                                      • ChelseaGuy
                                        • 3 Years
                                        1 month, 8 days ago

                                        3

                                    2. FOO FIGHTER
                                        1 month, 8 days ago

                                        How quickly things change.

                                        Just before KDB picked up an injury he probably was the player everyone should have had.

                                        Since his return he has been a bit uninspiring. You surely at this point would not say he is a must have until Rodri is back again and that probably will be around mid December then Rodri still needs to get back to match fitness.

                                        The fear of owning zero City should not be a fear when many teams on here only have KDB. Others only Sterling.

                                        Just like Andy, what will make his team more dangerous than yours only owning KDB 'if' you have no City?

                                      • Bishopool
                                        • 8 Years
                                        1 month, 8 days ago

                                        WC before or after International Break??!!

                                        1. Bobby9
                                            1 month, 8 days ago

                                            Aftr

                                        2. Bobby9
                                            1 month, 8 days ago

                                            Son or pulisic ????

                                            Any thoughts?

                                            1. Devo-McDuff
                                              • 1 Year
                                              1 month, 7 days ago

                                              Son, less competition and more proven pedigree. Though it does depend on what you’d do with the extra dosh.

                                              1. Bobby9
                                                  1 month, 7 days ago

                                                  Thanks for the advices mate!

                                            2. Zenith UK
                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                              • 3 Years
                                              1 month, 7 days ago

                                              Soo...
                                              I've already done Ota > Lindelof & Haller > Vardy (no hit)
                                              I'm tempted to do Auba to Jimi but that leaves me with 5.0M ITB.

                                              Thoughts?

                                              1. Bobby9
                                                  1 month, 7 days ago

                                                  Auba -> (tammy)* or kane

                                              2. FantasyFooty01
                                                • 2 Years
                                                1 month, 7 days ago

                                                Into week 6 of last man standing who should I pick next. Comment below. So far picked-
                                                Arsenal
                                                Man City
                                                Leicester
                                                Man United
                                                Liverpool.

                                              3. POLSKA GOLA
                                                • 6 Years
                                                1 month, 7 days ago

                                                Which is best:
                                                A) Sterling to Mane
                                                B) Dilva to Martial
                                                C) both for -4

                                                1. zhiren
                                                  • 5 Years
                                                  1 month, 7 days ago

                                                  B

                                              4. Taa very much
                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                • 9 Years
                                                1 month, 7 days ago

                                                You’ll get him back and regret letting him go

                                              5. zhiren
                                                • 5 Years
                                                1 month, 7 days ago

                                                Hi everyone! Is my team g2g? Not sure if benching Lunds will come back and bite me..Too many city and pool players but I'm not sure who to bench!

                                                Pope
                                                TAA // Tomori // Rico // Soyuncu
                                                Mane // Sterling // KDB // Mount
                                                Tammy // Vardy

                                                Skeletenburg // Lunds // McGinn // Greenwood

                                              6. Sancidino
                                                • 3 Years
                                                1 month, 6 days ago

                                                Did Mark leave FFS?

                                              7. KAPTAIN KANE
                                                • 3 Years
                                                1 month, 6 days ago

                                                Yes Janmaat, lovely little surprise!