Pro Pundits - Az

The dangers of taking hits to chase points in FPL

“It is by testing our ideas, subjecting them to failure, that we set the stage for growth.” – Matthew Syed, Black Box Thinking

Another Gameweek passes in the Fantasy Premier League, and it’s another hit for my team.

Greyhead’s constant nods to my transfer dealings in his ‘Great and the Good‘ series keeps reminding me of my aggressive approach to this season.

Using this article as a chance to reflect on my hits, it’s quite grim reading on first glance.

A -4 to bring in Dani Ceballos (£5.3m) in Gameweek 4 was a disaster. My second hit of the season involved me chasing the points of Kevin de Bruyne (£10.2m) who was promptly benched and scored 1 point.

I managed to resist the urge for further hits until Gameweek 10, where I again took a hit to dump the underperforming Riyad Mahrez (£8.3m) for KDB… who managed just a single assist. 

In Gameweek 11, another hit, as Mason Mount (£6.8m) left my team for Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.7m), to fund a move for Jamie Vardy (£9.7m).

My most recent hit involved taking out Ricardo Pereira (£6.4m) and Hudson-Odoi for Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.0m) and James Maddison (£7.6m). It’s quite painful to see just how much the carousel has been spinning.

Hudson-Odoi has been one of a few ill-fated punts in my team this season

What’s interesting (well for me anyway!) is how I’ve been going about making the hits.

My latest was the third time I’ve made a so-called ‘sideways’ move.

To fund de Bruyne initially, I downgraded Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) for fellow Liverpool player Joel Matip (£5.3m). After selling him for an ill-fated fling with Mahrez, I lost Mount for teammate Hudson-Odoi.

To then upgrade Hudson-Odoi, I lost Pereira for Söyüncü.  

To finally board the Vardy party, I even managed to swap Nicolas Otamendi (£5.2m), a non-playing defender, for Martin Kelly (£4.1m)… another non-playing defender.

On the whole, I think these were the right moves for my team, but in some ways, these hits felt like trading two players for one.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all but my latest hit have got me big fat red arrows.

Looking back on these moves, it’s also made me realise that I’ve been putting too much money in defence this season.

Out of the three hits I’ve just mentioned, they all involved downgrading a defender. This is despite a normal strategy of mine being to avoid paying a premium price for defenders unless they are playing at Wing Back or have set pieces in their locker.

Alonso, when playing regularly, is a premium option I am willing to pay for

I’ve never been afraid of making a hit, and I recently watched the brilliant Meet the Manager video with Joe and Mark, where Mark talks about his own strategy.

His fear of being £0.1m or £0.2m off transfers further down the line fuels his aggression, making him more likely to take hits, and also make earlier transfers.

My most recent hit didn’t pay off this week but it’s already helped improve my team value.

Hudson-Odoi has dropped twice, while both Söyüncü and Maddison have gone up £0.2m each.

That’s a massive swing – and my team is in better shape for it.

Just because people are saying I’m taking too many hits doesn’t mean I’m likely to slow down any time soon…!

And in true Black Box style, my hits are often correcting my mistakes, such as bringing in Hudson-Odoi, who I do feel I was a little unlucky with, damn you Christian Pulisic!

Pulisic’s burst into the team has closed down Hudson-Odoi as an option

In fact, this season would probably be even worse for me if I hadn’t set about correcting mistakes in my own team.

Losing de Bruyne on the Wildcard for Mahrez was rash. It cost me four points to bring him back, but he delivered this week with a goal against Chelsea.

Not leaving an extra £0.1m in the bank for Vardy was idiotic, but my -4 to bring him in and ship Callum Wilson (£7.7m) a few weeks ago has more than paid for itself.

I have no doubt that the upgrade of Hudson-Odoi to Maddison will reap rewards soon too. He is my boy after all – despite his questionable taste in backpacks.

As people around me are getting itchy feet with players like Anthony Martial (£7.8m), Mount, and Raheem Sterling (£12.0m) – I feel like I may finally be in a pretty strong position as we head into Christmas.

I’m banking the transfer this week, and then, barring a change in Arsenal manager or a monster haul, I’ll be looking at getting rid of Pierre- Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) and FINALLY bringing in the man they call Lord John Lundstram (£4.9m).

Yes, you read that right. I’m planning on losing last years golden boot winner to fund a move for a £4.0m defender… what a season this is.

So, while I do not have any hits planned in the near future, it seems inevitable that I will succumb to my cravings. When I do, let’s hope it comes from a position of strength, rather than to correct yet another mistake.

My Gameweek 14 bus team

Become a Member and access our data

Memberships for the rest of the 2019/20 campaign are now available for the discounted price of £9.99 or the monthly price of £2.99.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

Az Follow me on Twitter : @ffscout_az” Follow him on Twitter

841 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Mike-Kovic
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    2FT

    dendoncker->Son
    Auba-> Ayew

    good move?

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Auba to Ings or Mouset

      1. Mike-Kovic
        • 8 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        Palace fixture looks good

  2. Dr. Agabuse
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Who will score more over the next 4

    Salah
    Son

    1. Karan14 (Brazil Nuts)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      If fit and looks sharp tonight has to be Salah imo.

      1. SHOOTER MCGINN
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        This. If...

        1. Karan14 (Brazil Nuts)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 5 days ago

          We'll know today.

          Klopp has been saying he's fine just gotta see him on the pitch.

    2. J ⚒ Gimme your Mané…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Salah

  3. SHOOTER MCGINN
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Pope, Guaita or Dubravka from now until next year? Currently got Pope but getting bored of him now.

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Gustav

    2. DAZZ
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      getting bored of back to back 9 pointers are we. Downgrade to Gazza for them juicy 2 pointers

      1. SHOOTER MCGINN
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        On the hunt on those penalty saves innit. But nah feel like there are better options over the next few months.

    3. PlumaPiedra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Henderson.

  4. Stef rocks
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Just did my FT

    Anything you would change for a hit?

    Pope
    Taa pereira taylor ( lundi reid)
    Mane KDB sonny Maddison (Cantwell)
    Tammy Vardy jimmy

  5. balint84
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    captain

    A) salah
    B) son
    C) good ol' vardy

    1. DAZZ
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      probably going Vardy myself. Super Sunday is a factor for me aswell.

    2. DA Minnion
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Gov

  6. Karan14 (Brazil Nuts)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Anywhere I can find heatmaps and stats of the CL games from last night?

  7. DAZZ
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    would you rather a Chelsea triple up or Liverpool triple up this GW? Basically looking at Montoya to Robertson (TAA Mane) or Cantwell to Pulisic (Mount Tammy). Have 2.9 and 1FT. My front line is:

    Mane KDB Son Mount Cantwell
    Tammy Vardy Greenwood

    Would probably look to downgrade Mount in 2GW's

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Rob

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      What's your defense?

  8. Dr. Agabuse
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    KDB to Son in two

  9. STONEROSES
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Sterling -> Son
    Aurier -> Robertson

    These good moves? Still have KDB in mid

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Aurier has two assists and a goal under mourinho in two ganes

    2. istanbul05
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Just Sterling for me

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      I want Aurier. Keep him.

      Sterling > Son easily.

  10. Dr. Agabuse
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    No one here seems to have rheir WC left?
    I am only olanning until GW17

    1. Jarvish Scott Talent
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Are you WCing 18 rather than 19?

      1. Dr. Agabuse
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        I guess.
        Fixtures seem to change there.
        Pool blank, Leicester vs MCity.

        Gives me a chance to get a few punts.
        3Liverpool and Ings without horrendous fear of injury.

    2. DAZZ
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      i have mine. I'm playing mine the last day i can. Will load back up on Man City assets

  11. LC1
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Morning all.

    Am I good to save FT? Or should I bring in another Pool player;

    Pope
    TAA Lunds Soyuncu
    KDB Mane Mount Tielemens
    Vardy(c) Abraham Jimenez

    Tomori Rico Dendo.

    And should I start Tomori, and if so, who ahead of? Lund?

    1 FT and 3.5 ITB.

    Thanks

    1. LC1
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Could also do Mount > Son?

    2. istanbul05
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Save and play Tamori for me

  12. MoManeTaa
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    A) PVA in 433 - (Mount + Kelly ➡ Cantwell + PVA)
    B) Zaha in 343 (Kelly + Mount ➡ Ried + Zaha)

    A or B for the following team?

    Gazza
    TAA Robbo Soy/Lund (Kelly)
    Mane Son KDB Mount (donkey)
    Vardy Abraham Raul

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      A ruins your structure.
      B easily.

      1. MoManeTaa
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        Thank you

        Who do u think will score more points between those two, during the palace fixture run

  13. istanbul05
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Talk about a benching headache next week...which 2 would you bench?

    Pope,
    TAA, VVD, Soyuncu, Tamori, Lundstram,
    Mane, KDB, Martial, Mount,
    Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez.

    Currently benching Lundstram and Tamori....

    Thanks!

    1. puhd
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Yeah that’s right

    2. LC1
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Bloody hell that's tough.. Maybe Lund & Tomori?! Too tough to call.

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Ew. I might be tempted to bench someone Mount over Lundstram. Tomori sits for sure.

  14. IRBOX ⚽
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    12, 15, 9, 2, 7, 8 at home.. this man should be a lock for the captaincy. Who am I?

    1. Jarvish Scott Talent
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      You were T Box

      1. IRBOX ⚽
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        Everybody knows me as Irbox.

    2. jimmy.floyd
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Mo

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Salah.

    4. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      I know what I’d like to say, Salah?

    5. Dr. Agabuse
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Last 3:

      2 7 8
      Vs
      12 8 12
      who owns him?

  15. puhd
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Son or Pulisic?

  16. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    KdB out?

    Could do:

    A) KdB > Salah
    B) Cantwell > Pulisic

    If A, I'd start Tomori. If B, Tomori first sub.

    1. puhd
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Definitely B

    2. LC1
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      B

    3. Little Red Lacazette
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      B

    4. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      How come getting rid of KDB?

  17. prbaker1980
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Lord John of Lundstram is a 5.0 defender now not a 4.0 defender!

    1. Little Red Lacazette
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      He really is not a defender. FPL towers messed up.

    2. puhd
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Yes indeed

  18. Dr. Agabuse
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Need Mount to stay quiet tonight and then to start as a 10 with room to roam in front of Kante and Jorginho

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Frank is playing a 4-3-3 with WIllian and Pulisic preferred out wide to partner Abraham. I actually did Mount > Pulisic for a -4 which I expect to pay off handsomely

      1. Dr. Agabuse
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        Thx

      2. Dr. Agabuse
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        But he played 433 all season and scored every other game?
        What happend to him?
        He wasnt overachieving either

  19. dshv
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    Is it too risky to be with Kane captain?

    1. Fernando Torres
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 5 days ago

      I'm considering it

  20. Jurgen Flopp
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 5 days ago

    -4 point hit in GW7 saw me drop from 470k rank to 750k. 6 gameweeks on and after another -12 worth of hits I'm 36k overall.

    It's all about taking hits at the right time for the right players.

  21. Shark
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Interesting article. Taking hits is definitely an art form. I have taken no hits this season until last week. I had to shift Ota, Matip and Pukki. I also wanted Pulisic and Robbo / TAA back in so I cashed in on Mount too. This leaves me with
      Schmeical
      Robbo TAA Lund Tomori
      Martial Mane Sterling KDB Pulisic
      Tammy
      {Greenwood Connely Rico Button)
      Not quite as template and I was only a couple of ref descions away from my Sterling captain choice paying off, taking into account the Vardy pen incident. It just shows what fine margins can do. I have rode a major price swing wave however and do think a Vardy-less team is still an option just as a Salah-less team was at the start of the season. I am not convinced Vardy's current form is sustainable and the attacking defenders and value mids should be able to cover these points. I think getting some value players early is important. How much will Lund, Tammy Pulisic and even Rico be next season? So there is also a 'theoretical' team value to consider too.

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        I think not getting Vardy at this point is stubborness not patience. He has the underlying stats this season too with the most big chances. It is sustainable with those fixtures and no European commitments.

      2. PlumaPiedra
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        I still remember Vardy breaking the record for scoring in the most consecutive premier league games. Vardy can sustain it for as long as he likes 🙂

    • Chelsea91
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 5 days ago

      Pope
      Robbo,Lund,Soy
      Mane,kdb,son,pulisic
      Jimmy,rashford,vardy

      How the team looks mate? Any suggestion?

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 5 days ago

        very nice !

        1. Chelsea91
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 5 days ago

          Thanks mate

      2. Shark
          4 months, 5 days ago

          I like it. I would just be looking at keeping 2 free transfers ready to get form players or make repairs.

          1. Chelsea91
            • 1 Year
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Thanks mate

      3. FOO FIGHTER
          4 months, 5 days ago

          Captaincy headache...

          Salah, Mane, Son, Vardy, Abraham.

          1. TONY123
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Vardy. No headache needed.

            1. Christina.
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              4 months, 5 days ago

              +1

              ride the wave

          2. Ajax Hamsterdam
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Mane or vardy

          3. IRBOX ⚽
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Gotta be Salah. Loves Anfield as reflected by his FPL returns and super differential. Everton will frustrate Leicester

            1. Christina.
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              4 months, 5 days ago

              thinking out of the box

        • Azathoth
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 5 days ago

          Keep C.Wilson or bring in Jimi?

          1. Fulchester's New Centr…
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Let Callum go. He is a bit of a feast or famine type, but can't predict when. Jimi in contrast is a season keeper and in pretty decent form.

        • Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 5 days ago

          pick one

          A Kane
          B Son

          Thanks a lot

          1. Camzy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Son. He's cheaper. And gets midfielder points.

            1. Ajax Hamsterdam
              • 5 Years
              4 months, 5 days ago

              Thanks Camzy. Kane on pens though.

          2. Fulchester's New Centr…
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            I've already gone for Son - easier to do with my team structure - but would have gone Kane if on a WC.

            1. Ajax Hamsterdam
              • 5 Years
              4 months, 5 days ago

              thanks a lot.

        • Fernando Torres
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 5 days ago

          Pope
          Tomori Soy TAA
          KDB Pulisic Mane Maddison
          Vardy Kane Abraham

          Subs: Button/Lund/Rico/Donks

          Thoughts on this and who to captain

          1. Fulchester's New Centr…
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Team looks fabulous. I'd go Vardy, but Kane could be nice differential - 17% ownership, but I would imagine a lot of those are zombie teams.

        • Sarri-ball
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 5 days ago

          better combo for december xmas rotation etc

          a) Son/kdb (2 free swaps)
          b) alli/sterling (1 swap)

          1. TONY123
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            A

          2. Dr. Agabuse
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            A

        • Mike-Kovic
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 5 days ago

          kelly -> tomori or aurier?

          1. TONY123
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Aurier

            1. Ajax Hamsterdam
              • 5 Years
              4 months, 5 days ago

              is aurier nailed though ?

          2. Dr. Agabuse
            • 7 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            Kelly might come good. Ward injury

        • GunnerStorm
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 5 days ago

          Is there a way to look at past weeks captain pole results?

        • TaiwanHC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          4 months, 5 days ago

          Doherty or Van Aanholt?

          1. Ajax Hamsterdam
            • 5 Years
            4 months, 5 days ago

            PVA for me, fixtures great until gw30 apart from 22/23