Pro Pundits - Az

The dangers of taking hits to chase points in FPL

“It is by testing our ideas, subjecting them to failure, that we set the stage for growth.” – Matthew Syed, Black Box Thinking

Another Gameweek passes in the Fantasy Premier League, and it’s another hit for my team.

Greyhead’s constant nods to my transfer dealings in his ‘Great and the Good‘ series keeps reminding me of my aggressive approach to this season.

Using this article as a chance to reflect on my hits, it’s quite grim reading on first glance.

A -4 to bring in Dani Ceballos (£5.3m) in Gameweek 4 was a disaster. My second hit of the season involved me chasing the points of Kevin de Bruyne (£10.2m) who was promptly benched and scored 1 point.

I managed to resist the urge for further hits until Gameweek 10, where I again took a hit to dump the underperforming Riyad Mahrez (£8.3m) for KDB… who managed just a single assist. 

In Gameweek 11, another hit, as Mason Mount (£6.8m) left my team for Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.7m), to fund a move for Jamie Vardy (£9.7m).

My most recent hit involved taking out Ricardo Pereira (£6.4m) and Hudson-Odoi for Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.0m) and James Maddison (£7.6m). It’s quite painful to see just how much the carousel has been spinning.

Hudson-Odoi has been one of a few ill-fated punts in my team this season

What’s interesting (well for me anyway!) is how I’ve been going about making the hits.

My latest was the third time I’ve made a so-called ‘sideways’ move.

To fund de Bruyne initially, I downgraded Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) for fellow Liverpool player Joel Matip (£5.3m). After selling him for an ill-fated fling with Mahrez, I lost Mount for teammate Hudson-Odoi.

To then upgrade Hudson-Odoi, I lost Pereira for Söyüncü.  

To finally board the Vardy party, I even managed to swap Nicolas Otamendi (£5.2m), a non-playing defender, for Martin Kelly (£4.1m)… another non-playing defender.

On the whole, I think these were the right moves for my team, but in some ways, these hits felt like trading two players for one.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all but my latest hit have got me big fat red arrows.

Looking back on these moves, it’s also made me realise that I’ve been putting too much money in defence this season.

Out of the three hits I’ve just mentioned, they all involved downgrading a defender. This is despite a normal strategy of mine being to avoid paying a premium price for defenders unless they are playing at Wing Back or have set pieces in their locker.

Alonso, when playing regularly, is a premium option I am willing to pay for

I’ve never been afraid of making a hit, and I recently watched the brilliant Meet the Manager video with Joe and Mark, where Mark talks about his own strategy.

His fear of being £0.1m or £0.2m off transfers further down the line fuels his aggression, making him more likely to take hits, and also make earlier transfers.

My most recent hit didn’t pay off this week but it’s already helped improve my team value.

Hudson-Odoi has dropped twice, while both Söyüncü and Maddison have gone up £0.2m each.

That’s a massive swing – and my team is in better shape for it.

Just because people are saying I’m taking too many hits doesn’t mean I’m likely to slow down any time soon…!

And in true Black Box style, my hits are often correcting my mistakes, such as bringing in Hudson-Odoi, who I do feel I was a little unlucky with, damn you Christian Pulisic!

Pulisic’s burst into the team has closed down Hudson-Odoi as an option

In fact, this season would probably be even worse for me if I hadn’t set about correcting mistakes in my own team.

Losing de Bruyne on the Wildcard for Mahrez was rash. It cost me four points to bring him back, but he delivered this week with a goal against Chelsea.

Not leaving an extra £0.1m in the bank for Vardy was idiotic, but my -4 to bring him in and ship Callum Wilson (£7.7m) a few weeks ago has more than paid for itself.

I have no doubt that the upgrade of Hudson-Odoi to Maddison will reap rewards soon too. He is my boy after all – despite his questionable taste in backpacks.

As people around me are getting itchy feet with players like Anthony Martial (£7.8m), Mount, and Raheem Sterling (£12.0m) – I feel like I may finally be in a pretty strong position as we head into Christmas.

I’m banking the transfer this week, and then, barring a change in Arsenal manager or a monster haul, I’ll be looking at getting rid of Pierre- Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) and FINALLY bringing in the man they call Lord John Lundstram (£4.9m).

Yes, you read that right. I’m planning on losing last years golden boot winner to fund a move for a £4.0m defender… what a season this is.

So, while I do not have any hits planned in the near future, it seems inevitable that I will succumb to my cravings. When I do, let’s hope it comes from a position of strength, rather than to correct yet another mistake.

My Gameweek 14 bus team

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841 Comments Post a Comment
  1. dshv
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Anybody to think about Kane captain ??

    1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      By all means. Good choice. But Vardy and Mane are super options with Chelsea too so it's well spread.

    2. Totti
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      if i was an owner, i would have done it
      the obvious captain this week

    3. KGFC
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      I'm getting in him and making him captain

    4. dshv
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Thank you guys.. and yes have mane and vardy but wanna try that kane luck on saturday..

  2. Totti
    • 3 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    need your help guys:

    Pope Ryan
    TAA soyuncu tomori lundstram kelly
    mane KDB mount mcginn cantwell
    vardy jimenez abraham

    1 FT 4.5 itb

    A) mcginn-> maddison
    B) mcginn and mount -> maddison and pulisic (-4)
    C) other suggestion

  3. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Dangers? It's a free fantasy game on the internet, not some sort of war zone

    1. Totti
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      what the problem then? 🙂

    2. The Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Haha this

  4. Eric Banternaaa
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Pope Button
    TAA Soyuncu Lund Rico Kelly
    KDB Mane Maddison Mount Elneny
    Vardy Jimi Abraham

    2FT 0.3ITB.

    Save FT or Kelly to Taylor?

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Elneny?

    2. Totti
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      mount to pulisic and save the other FT

      1. Eric Banternaaa
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        See below

  5. Dr. Agabuse
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    2 Liverpool for the next 4 games
    is not enough!

    1. Totti
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      i think enough
      as they will blank on gameweek 18

  6. Berbs
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Nuno is the favourite to become Arsenal manager.

    1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Go away arsenal - Jimi is ticking over nicely!

  7. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    I'm so grateful for this website right now. Its the only place not trying to brainwash me with pro-government propaganda!
    Long live fpl!

    1. Berbs
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Well, some things are more important than FPL and the future of the UK is one of them.

      1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        I agree - but it's just one sided with constant slander and smear. Especially the BBC, what happened to them?

        1. Berbs
          • 9 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          Sad indictment when what used to be the most reputable news outlet has become agenda driven.

          1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
            • 4 Years
            7 months, 19 days ago

            Really is. I'm having real trouble getting news I can trust now but I'm guessing it's not just me. I'm cancelling the BBC. Really sad but they just feel like a mouthpiece. Anyway - sorry for ranting - just grateful this place actually feels relatively common sense!

            1. Tired and weary
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              7 months, 19 days ago

              Mouthpiece is the word, grim stuff

  8. liboo
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Richarlison + macgin out for
    A. Pulisic + barnes
    B. Willian + perez
    C. Willian + Tilemans
    ??

  9. Don Kloppeone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Morning fellow FPL obsessors!

    Tonight will hopefully be enlightening re minutes played and fitness but all things being good would you do either of these moves?

    A) Mount > Pulisic (FT)
    B) Maddison > Alli (FT)
    C) Save FT

    1FT 1.3itb
    Pope
    TAA, Lunds, Soy
    Salah*, Mané, Maddison, Mount*
    Vardy, Jimi, Abraham
    (McGovern) (Willems, Rico, Dendo)

    A is the "in" move this week and I see the appeal but risk of Puli being rotated still.
    B is puntier but could be golden as Alli seems to be finding himself again and I still have 2 other LEI
    C is playing the patience/ hope game.....

    Thanks 🙂

    1. Berbs
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      I like the look of B.

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Me too! Just realised I could do it and Alli looks a nice punt (which probably means he will now be awful :lol:).

        Mount is an annoying one. Pulisic clearly has been better recently but Mason is a quality player and you just know at some point their roles will reverse.

        1. Berbs
          • 9 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          I think Mount has 2 fixtures which are alright - giving you some time to assess other options in that price bracket. Palace fixtures become good so maybe Zaha/Mili.

          1. Don Kloppeone
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            7 months, 19 days ago

            Yep. Good shout re Palace.

            Will make a decision tonight. Just hoping Salah looks back to fitness and primed so I don’t need to make my decisions more complicated!

  10. KINGS
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Any mates here can help advise which GW Son will be missing due to EAFF Cup? TQ

    1. Would Ed Woodward
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 19 days ago

      He's not going according to people on here, only domestic based players will be used.

  11. Fernando Torres
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Pope
    Tomori Soy TAA
    KDB Pulisic Mane Maddison
    Vardy Kane Abraham

    Subs: Button/Lund/Rico/Donks

    Bench right and who to captain?

  12. FPL ElasticO
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    I have the enough ITB to do this transfer for free.... Is it worth doing now or later??

    A. Tielemans >>> Alli
    B. Cahill >> Aurier (though this is give me bench headache each week)

    1. Holmes
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Not sure. A can work.

    2. Eric Banternaaa
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      A if have no spurs cover?

      1. FPL ElasticO
        • 5 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        I have no Spurs players ..... but got Vardy & Soy....

    3. Maddamotha
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      B

  13. Maddamotha
    • 3 Years
    7 months, 19 days ago

    Feels like a big decision this, which Im struggling with. What would you do? A,B,C gives me a benching headache, which I really dont like.

    2FTS 0.9 ITB

    A) Sterling, Rico > Son, Robbo
    B) Sterling, Dendo > Son, Maddison
    C) Sterling, Greenwood > Son, Jimenez
    D) Sterling > Salah
    E) Sterling, Mount > Son, Pulisic

    Pope
    TAA. Soy, Lund, Tomori
    Sterling, Mane, KDB, Mount
    Vardy, Abraham

    Buton, Greenwood, Dendo, Rico

    1. mcginnntonic
        7 months, 19 days ago

        A

      • Eric Banternaaa
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        E

      • The Dogs Love Leeds
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        E for me, C if worried about Chelsea rotation

        1. Maddamotha
          • 3 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          Im more concerned with Mount outscoring Pulisic, if I make the move

      • KINGS
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 19 days ago

        C

        1. Maddamotha
          • 3 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          Even if it meant benching one of Lund, Soy and Tomori?

    2. Daniel S.
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Feccking price changes and CHO. 0.1 off Martial to Salah next week 🙁

      1. Holmes
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Blessing in disguise 😉

      2. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Similar block with Sons price rise (Martial to Son). Annoying huh.

      3. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Price changes are ruthless and clearly manipulated.

    3. Eric Banternaaa
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Pope Button
      TAA Soyuncu Lund Rico Kelly
      KDB Mane Maddison Son Elneny
      Vardy Jimi Abraham

      2FT 3.3ITB.

      Thinking Mount to Son. Leaves 0.3ITB.

      Save FY or Kelly to Taylor aswell?

      1. ResultatFar
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Awesome team! Save 1 ft for future upgrades

    4. FPL ElasticO
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Given the current template changing.... is it worth loosing City players for now & get 3 Spurs, Leicester & Chelsea??? Or am I thinking too early....

      1. Holmes
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        I think one attacking player from each team and then fill other spots with whatever you can afford.

        Man City are not playing well at the moment, so you can avoid, probably wont backfire.

      2. Gudjohnsen
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Triple up in midfield/attack is too much imo.
        So it would be Willian/Pulisic/Abraham, Maddison/Tielemans/Vardy, Alli/Moura/Son/Kane

        Think it's too much.

    5. Purse83
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Transferred Son for Sterling earlier this week to reduce price3 rise risk. Thinking the below with my second FT:

      1) Mount to Pulicic

      or

      2) TAA and Martial to Aurier and Salah (-4)

      Cheers

      1. The Dogs Love Leeds
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        1) transferring TAA out before next 4 fixtures would be madness

        1. Purse83
          • 2 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          Even for Salah who could erupt?

          Other option is to keep TAA and transfer Mount and Martial for Hayden (bench) and Salah and go from 343 to 433 (Soyuncu to come off of bench)

    6. Gudjohnsen
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Would you do Sterling to Son for free this week or have 2FTs for midweek games?

      1. The Dogs Love Leeds
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Yes there's a chance Sterling gets rested i think

        1. Gudjohnsen
          • 3 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          Highly unlikely imo with Aguero injured they need Sterling even more. Sterling also played only one international. It's all about which player gets more points imo not about minutes.

        2. Would Ed Woodward
          • 1 Year
          7 months, 19 days ago

          Far more concerned about him constantly blanking than being rested.

      2. KINGS
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Sterling no longer captain option for me. Will have to go

    7. FPL Panda
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      who scores more over mext 4 weeks ?

      A - R. Peirera + Son

      B - TAA + Martial/Maddison/ Pulisic

      cheers

    8. FPL ElasticO
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Which transfer worth doing ????

      A. Martial >>> Son
      B. Connolly & Martial >>> Kane & Dendoncker

      1. FPL ElasticO
        • 5 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Connolly & Martial >>> Kane & Dendoncker for -4

      2. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Why are you selling Martial this week when he has AVL?

        One blank and all of a sudden you've forgotten why you bought him...

      3. Maddamotha
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        I wouldnt lose Martial this week. One blank against Sheffield, which we knew would be hard, and everyone is selling him, before hes playing at home against Villa.

    9. Gudjohnsen
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      So which two would you get:

      A. Son
      B. Pulisic
      C. Martial

      1. Holmes
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Get? A and B

      2. Would Ed Woodward
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 19 days ago

        A and B.

    10. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      How many hits so far this season?

      -8 for me

      1. Gudjohnsen
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        -20 and worst season in FPL so far for me.

      2. Maddamotha
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        None.

        1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
          • 5 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          (clap)

      3. Holmes
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        -20pts, 16 in last 2 GWs

        1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
          • 5 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          really??

      4. ElliotJHP
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        -4 and that was to get Soy & Vardy before price rises, happy days.

      5. yakirh
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        4 hits
        -16

      6. KANTEnders
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        1 hit

      7. ResultatFar
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 19 days ago

        -12

    11. Totti
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      bench one:

      A) lundstram
      B) tomori

      1. yakirh
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        90% will say B
        I'm benching the lord.

    12. Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      The scenes on here when Son blanks this week ... 😉

      1. Holmes
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        And Mane and Vardy. Will be fun!

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          I’ll accept all that if Salah mega hauls 😆

        2. DantheManinaPan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          7 months, 19 days ago

          Very hopeful, you are...

    13. Danny Fischarge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Hi Guys GTG?

      Pope
      TAA, Aurier, Soyuncu
      Mount, Mane (C), Martial, KDB
      Abraham , Jimenez, Vardy (V)

      Button, H Barnes, Lundstram, Mings

      Any suggestions will be greatly appreciated.

      1. ElliotJHP
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Looks good mate, all set up for a Barnes haul

    14. fayons
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Hi all, need a bit of help I'm not faring too well in my ML at the min

      1FT / 1.0ITB

      Pope/Button
      Rico/Lundstram/Soyuncu/Trent/Williams
      Mane/Sterling/Mount/Yarmolenko/Dendoncker
      Auba/Jimi/Ings

      I'm considering:
      A) straight swap from Yarmolenko > Zaha
      B) -4 Auba > Vardy & Yarm > Pulisic
      C) -4 Auba > Abraham & Yarm > Son

      Any other areas I should be prioritising instead?

      Thanks

      1. The Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        C

    15. Whats the Mata?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Guaita or Henderson(double up with Lundstram) gw15 onwards?

      1. Would Ed Woodward
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Think Hendo will be a popular move, especially to try and get an advantage over everyone starting Lund.

      2. yakirh
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Guiata for me.

      3. ElliotJHP
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Im going Guaita as he has better fixtures for longer

    16. fpork
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      I feel like my team has no diffs. Any differentials I could add, and who to swap in that case?

      1. fpork
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Pope
        Soyuncu, Lundstram, TAA
        Son, KDB, Maddison, Mane
        Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez
        Button - Cantwell - Rico - Pieters

        1. Lindelol
          • 1 Year
          7 months, 19 days ago

          i have 100% same starting team but its good for this gw

    17. Atimis
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Almost made my moves to get Son but Sir showed some form too.

      Which one would you choose:
      Son and KDB, Kane and KDB or Son and Kane?

      1. Tshelby
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Kane and KdB could be really good imo

      2. Maddamotha
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        Son, KDB

    18. KGFC
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 19 days ago

      Best option from Spurs for next couple of matches?

      1. Kane
      2. Son
      3. Alli
      4. Aurier
      5. Stay away

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 19 days ago

        2