Pro Pundits - Lateriser

Quantifying the impact of FPL decisions with chip season arriving earlier

Fantasy Premier League managers should make themselves aware of how much impact each of their decisions have on their overall performance.

For 38 Gameweeks every year, we are all making choices, determinations and judgements about our teams, each of them affecting our success and/or failure.

I have done a little bit of research into how we can quantify the impact of each of these, with a specific focus on the captaincy and chips.

After all, the 2019/20 campaign will bring chip season to us much earlier than usual.

Liverpool and West Ham both have no fixture in Blank Gameweek 18 and could have a double-up of matches in a Double Gameweek very close to that.

Furthermore, the first-ever Premier League winter break in February will split one Gameweek across seven days, with five fixtures at one end of the week and five at the other.

Before I go any further, I just want to clarify that you should not take the numbers mentioned below as gospel, as there is only so much research that can be done on the subject.

I simply want to give my view and stimulating some interesting discussion for the Fantasy community to consider.

Playing FPL forces us to make several decisions each week, some of them high impact and others low impact.

For example, swapping a £4.5m defender based on upcoming clean sheet potential is a low impact decision, in my opinion.

You’d expect a 10 to 20 point swing on average over a period of four or five Gameweeks, I’d imagine.

Moving Mohamed Salah (£12.2m) to Sadio Mané (£12.2m) or Harry Kane (£10.8m) for a hit so that you can captain the Spurs man is a high impact decision.

This is where 10 to 20 point swings happen perhaps in one Gameweek alone.

I was recently talking about how this season has offered more big hitters than normal and setting your team up to switch through these by keeping set and forget players in your team could be a potentially good strategy. That way you are giving yourself the best chance to make high variance decisions week on week chasing the right captaincy hauls, although I appreciate this tactic is not for everyone.

In my opinion, the chips available to Fantasy managers are also of high impact across the course of the season, despite some disagreement on this issue.

I know some people who believe that the chips don’t matter too much as they influence only between two and three percent of our overall score at the end of the campaign.

However, I don’t see it that way, even if twice Triple Captaining Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) in a Double Gameweek, for a hat-trick each time, I might be guilty of bias in this area!

I will admit that it’s hard to disagree successful chip deployment only influences a small portion of your overall score.

Let’s assume that serious managers score somewhere between 2,200 and 2,300 points in a good season.

A great Triple Captain is probably worth 25 points (if you only choose to count the additional 25 points that the chip is giving you on top of a normal captain in a Double Gameweek).

A good Bench Boost should be worth around 20 to 25 points, so if you nail this chip and the Triple Captain that equates to roughly 50 additional points, admittedly a small amount numerically.

However, I don’t think assessing your Bench Boost and Triple Captain based on the percentage of your total score is the right way of looking at them, as you might unfairly downplay the importance of getting them right.

When you consider the concept of high and low impact decisions already discussed about strategy from week to week, you probably make a total of 140 to 150 of these in the whole campaign.

  • Initial team (15) + 2 Wildcards (30) + 1 Free Hit (15) = 60 decisions
  • 38 captains = 38 decisions
  • When to play your Wildcards + 3 Chips = 5 decisions
  • Transfers over the season = 35 – 55 depending on your hit taking appetite (I made 50 odd last year)

A lot of these decisions are low impact ones. The high impact ones, in my opinion, would be all 38 captaincy decisions (your Double Gameweek captains in particular) and your chip choices.

Perhaps a better way of looking at the points generated from these decisions is not about your overall season score, but the impact they can have on rank.

After all, finishing as high as we possibly can in the world rankings is the most important aim for many of us.

I spoke to several people in the Fantasy community about how they got on in 2018/19 so I could get a general idea of how points correlated with rank last season.

  • 2502 points – Rank 237
  • 2250 points – ~Rank 125k
  • 2150 points – ~Rank 500k

Each season, most of us hardcore managers will be aiming somewhere between the 2,250 and 2,500 point bracket.

That’s a difference of 250 points. This is the variance we should look at in my opinion.

On average, most seasons, the difference between all managers like us will probably be at a maximum of 250 points.

Keeping this in mind, let’s begin to attempt to quantify the impact of various decisions we make.

The first one we need to look at is captaincy. Last season, I scored 2,377 points, of which 573 of those were from the armband (24%). That’s quite a sizeable portion.

If you were to take these points out of the equation then I would guess that the difference between all serious managers would go down to about 150 to 200 points instead of 250.

So, to define the percentage impact a single decision makes, I think it’s better looking at it out of 250 points and not 2,300 points because that is the standard gap between most serious managers.

We had four Double Gameweeks last season, in 25, 32, 34 and 35. Here’s how I got on for the captaincy:

  • GW25 – Aguero TC – 57 points
  • GW32 – Aguero – 20 points
  • GW34 – Lukaku – 4 points
  • GW35 – Sterling – 16 points

So the remaining captaincy total was 476 points spread over 34 rounds, an average of 14 points per single Gameweek. The average captain score per Double Gameweek for me last season was 24.3 points.

My own scores aren’t going to give exact impact variance but I am attempting to get a range of variance possible.

It must be said that 14 and 25 points respectively are not huge number when looking at your overall points but when you look at the 250 point range that exists for most serious FPL players, we are looking at a variance of 6% impact for single Gameweek captaincies and a 10% impact on Double Gameweeks.

You might argue that you already have the player that you are captaining in your team anyway but if you look at big hitter chasing to try getting the best captaincy hauls week on week, you’re looking at an impact of 5-7% in single Gameweeks and 9-11% in Double Gameweeks.

If you think about it, we actually pick that captain for 42 matches and not 38 in a four Double Gameweek season like last year.

This further elevates my view of the Triple Captaincy chip as well.

It eliminates a lot of skill in the game and makes things very luck dependant for one single decision out of 150 decisions you make in an FPL calendar year and it is one that in my opinion has the potential to be the highest impact decision you’ll make all year.

Just last year, I the Triple Captaincy on Aguero while my main mini-league rival went with Leroy Sané (£9.3m), who failed to deliver.

That led to a difference of 50 points. 50 points in the space of seven days. I was trailing him by exactly that much before the Double Gameweek and took the lead after it.

This was 50 points out of the 250 points bracket, which was a 20% variance impact that I had on my FPL team.

Yes, you could that you’re only adding one additional player to your team with the Triple Captaincy, but if you play it in the right week, you’re potentially getting two of them if he’s playing twice.

Furthermore, if you’re chasing in your mini-league getting lucky with a Triple Captain differential in a Double Gameweek is a very very potent weapon as it can make that 20% impact out of the overall variance that exists between serious managers.

Your Triple Captain decision is a combination of two decisions which is the use of the chip itself and the choice of captaincy.

These two decisions, out of a maxiMum of 150 in my opinion, is roughly 1.3% of choices you have to make across the course of the season – and they have the ability to cause that 20% variance. That is huge.

Mini-leagues and extreme rank variances can be caused by these decisions. That 50 point impact can be the difference between 10k and 40k in a season.

So trying to revisit and tabulate these decisions, here is a summary (the variance could be a much higher range):

  • Captaincy decision – 5-7% variance amongst serious managers
  • Captaincy in a DGW – 9-12% variance amongst serious managers
  • TC in a DGW – 15-20% variance amongst serious managers

I think that is all I have to say on the matter for now. I don’t know if it’s right or wrong but I do find it interesting, enjoyed writing it, hope you enjoy reading it and look forward to discussing this with you.

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795 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Giggs Boson
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    El Capitano is looking great. (Lingard)

  2. theodosios
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Rose is nailed now since Davies will be out for a while?

    1. KingOllie
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      howd you know hes out?

      1. KingOllie
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        oh just seen, yeah rose pretty nailed now

    2. soup natsi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Seems that way but Jose is using him as 3rd defender with ball, not getting forward as much

      1. theodosios
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Thanks for that information! He is now too expensive if he doesn't go forward

      2. Is Stones nailed?
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        I was thinking he might use Vert at LB if that continues.

        1. EMBOLOFAN
          • 2 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          agree

      3. bench boost for every gamew…
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        yes might use verthongen when fit as a left back who sits

  3. Eriksen Maestro
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Bottomed:

    Hey lads which option:
    SV on Tammy: 7.6M

    A) Tammy => Jesus (-4)

    B) Tammy => Firmino (-4)

    C) Keep Tammy, start Hayden & Hope Tammy fit for Villa

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Wait a day seeing you you'd lost 0.4

    2. Captain Beefheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Defo save, i have same SV, so keeping for now

  4. Old Man
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    OMG Lingard scored. All my cynicism totally unjustified. (ish)

    1. pumpkinhead
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      ok boomer

  5. bigdip
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    WC Time? Thoughts?

    Current Team
    Ryan (Button)
    TAA / Lundstram / Pereira/ Rico/ Lascelles
    KDB/ Mane/ Maddison / Mount/ Dendocker
    Vardy / Abraham / Jimenez

    WC Team
    Ryan (Button)
    TAA / Lundstram / Pereira/ Williams
    SON/ Mane/ Maddison/BILVA or any 8.0 mid/ Mount
    Vardy / INGS / Jimenez

    1. Galza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Nothing terribly wrong with your current team that warrants a wildcard imo...

      1. bigdip
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        ok but i dont want to lose my WC so when should i use it

        1. Galza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          Don’t know, but I wouldn’t use it to get that team...

    2. theodosios
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Your current team is better then that WC team

    3. Zenith UK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      How many changes are making using that wildcard? If you really wanna use it before new year maybe wait for GW18 when Liverpool blank?

  6. Cahill
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    if you bought tammy for 7.0 is keeping the only option?

    1. pumpkinhead
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      3 gws in 7 days.. If it looks likely that he's out for two of those I'm moving him on (pp 7.4)

    2. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Love the irony that everyone celebrates price rises, but then it turns out it means that people are hesitant to sell players when they want to!

  7. FOO FIGHTER
    • 1 Year
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Stuck between deciding Salah or Vardy as captain.

    Leaning towards Vardy especially vs Everton defence.

    1. pumpkinhead
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      I was set on Tammy but too much uncertainty. Have both Vardy and Salah, I'm going Vardy.

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      go vardy

  8. Strchld
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Which one, cant decide.

    A) Salah and Jimenez
    B) Maddison and Kane

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      a

    2. Super salah
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      B

  9. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    which moves

    A aguero and mcginn to jimmy and son for free
    B aguero/abraham/mcginn to ings/kane/pulisic for a hit
    C aguero and abraham to rashford and kane for free

    thanks a lot 🙂

    1. theodosios
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      B out of those

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        thank you

    2. Amey
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      A

  10. bigdip
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    GTG? (0FT,1.2mn ITB)

    Ryan (Button)
    TAA / Lundstram / Pereira (Rico, Lascelles)
    KDB/ Mane(c)/ Maddison / Mount (Dendocker)
    Vardy / Abraham / Jimenez

  11. KingOllie
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    What combo is better do you reckon?

    A) Ings + Kane
    B) Rashford + Jimenez

    1. Galza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Close one.
      Do you own either of Son or Martial?

      1. KingOllie
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        i own Son, but i dont think that should sway my decision 😛

        1. Galza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 year, 1 month ago

          I suppose not.
          Jumping on a Spurs double up in attack now could pay dividends...

    2. korbendallas82
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      A.

  12. LM00091
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 year, 1 month ago

    G2G GW14?

    (3-5-2)
    Ryan / (Button)
    TAA, Söyüncü, Lundstram (Tomori, Rico)
    Mane, Son, Pulisic, Maddison, KDB
    Vardy (c), Abraham (Greenwood)

  13. Bruno Commando
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Guys, need some advice on the below 2 options. Which is a better option to replace Sterling and Greenwood? I will be keeping Sterling for this weekend against Newcastle and carry my FT over.

    A) Kane + Tielemans
    B) Kane + Perez
    C) Son + Jimenez

    Pope
    Tomori // TAA // Soy // Lunds
    Sterling // Mane // KDB // Mount
    Vardy // Tammy

    Skeletenburg // Rico // McGinn // Greenwood

    1. Bruno Commando
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Sorry I have Dendoncker instead of McGinn

  14. DandyDon
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Is there something about sterling’s stats being good with Jesus in the team? Of course was supposed to be the same with mendy and that hasn’t worked out recently. Might affect people’s decision looking to transfer him out this week?

  15. TimoTime
    • 1 Year
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Sure it’s already been asked but why no Rashford for United tonight?

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Rested

    2. Danno - Emre Canada
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      It’s a reserve team tonight.

  16. FPL Kaka
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Who is a better option?

    A) Lucas

    B) Alli

  17. Qaiss
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Is there anyone here who does not own Vardy? Trying to find some fellow madmen heheh

    1. mynameisq
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Me

      1. Qaiss
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Respect bro, he’ll blank the next two and ppl will go mad

    2. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Never heard of him - is he related to Rebekah Vardy?

  18. bigdip
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    WC with 6 changes to my team, thoughts?
    Current Team
    Ryan (Button)
    TAA / Lundstram / Pereira/ Rico/ Lascelles
    KDB/ Mane/ Maddison / Mount/ Dendocker
    Vardy / Abraham / Jimenez

    WC Team
    Ryan (Button)
    TAA / Lundstram / Pereira/ AURIER (or SOY)/ WILLIAMS
    ALLI/ Mane/ Maddison / PULISIC/ CANTWELL
    Vardy / JESUS / Jimenez

  19. Krafty Werks
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Which do you prefer?

    A - Salah & Jimenez
    B - KDB & Lacazette/Firmino

    1. Qaiss
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Prob A, I’m an Arsenal fan but Lacazette doesn’t score big often. Also, at least with A you can captain Salah

  20. Tomas_brolin
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    I have 2 FT, 0 ITB. So many issues but which transfers to prioritise this week?

    Pope
    TAA Lunds Rico
    Mane Sterling KdB Mount Cantwell
    Vardy Tammy

    button Hanley Reid king

    1. King and Hanley to Ayew/Mousset and Soy
    2. Mount and Tammy to Pulisic and Ings
    3. sterling and king to son and jimi

    Possibilities are endless. Need to upgrade bench and get an 11 out

  21. KGFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Tammy:
    "At the time I was fearful of the worst, obviously, but when I got in [to the changing room] I was able to walk again, move about. So [I'm] thankful. Hopefully it's not too long [out injured]."

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.football.london/chelsea-fc/players/injury-news-chelsea-tammy-abraham-17318014.amp

    Does it mean he is out for this week for sure??

    1. Klaren
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      That's from last night. I don't think anyone including him knew for sure at that point. He had a scan today so should have a better idea now.

  22. Giggs Boson
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Chong misses a tap in. He's had a terrible game.

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      He's leaving United. Sad thing as I'd really like to have a left footed winger in our team

    2. RECKLESS
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      He is so over hyped. Dont know why Juve want him

    3. HurriKane
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Worst miss ive seen in any of top 5 leagues this season

  23. Strchld
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Jimenez starting again, should we be worried that he will be benched weekend?

    1. DandyDon
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Nah he’s never benched. Just hope he doesn’t get injured like Tammy

    2. Amey
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      He's a monster.
      Heals like one at least !
      Relax 🙂

    3. Corgzzzz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Jimenez benched only once since March of this year !!!

  24. DandyDon
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Anyone else tempted to bring in Laca rather than Kane? Obvious price difference and like the look of their next two for goals at Norwich and Home to Brighton on Thursday. Lineup tonight may sway things. Kane should do well this weekend but not sure Mourinho revisiting ManU midweek is good for Spurs/Kane or not. To many good options midweek that will be benched behind him (can’t bench Kane obviously).

    1. Klaren
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      If Laca doesn't play today, I'd definitely get him over Kane. Son is the only Spurs attacker to get in my opinion.

  25. RECKLESS
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Manuyd playing coldest match in Europa at -16 deg! They not even wearing sweaters! How is it possible?!

    1. Fred54
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      **** is usually hot.

    2. Hooky
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      They said it was 8 degrees inside the stadium. Warmer than Stoke that is

    3. Amey
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      😮

    4. FC Astana
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      The roof over the stadium is closed, it's actually real warm inside here

  26. wattalowz
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Worth shifting Mount this week for a -4? Likelihood of starting?

  27. PogBruno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Worried as a non Pukki owner for this weekend

    1. Qaiss
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      I’m pretty worried as a non Vardy owner, how do u think I feel... :/

      1. Qaiss
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 1 month ago

        Nah kidding, he will blank prob

  28. Krafty Werks
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on this WC squad please?

    Henderson / McCarthy
    TAA / Aurier / Soyuncu / Lundstram / B.Williams
    Salah / Mane / Son / Pulisic / Dendoncker
    Vardy / Jesus / Jimenez

    0ITB.

    1. TB303
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Strong!

    2. D.Glynn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 year, 1 month ago

      Looks good!

  29. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Best combination for next few gw's

    A: Tomori + Mane + Mount + Rashford
    B: Tomori + Mane + Pulisic + Jimenez (-4)
    C: Tomori + Sterling + Son + Ings (-4)
    D: Robbo + Son + Mount + Rashford (-4)

  30. Corgzzzz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 1 month ago

    Good news about Tammy........Stand by your man....