Spot the Differential

Jesus allows FPL managers to exploit Aguero absence

Differentials continue to be the bedrock of success for Fantasy Premier League managers in 2019/20.

Even though Gameweek 14 saw the popular players deliver, the top three FPL points scorers of the round each had ownership of 3% or less.

It was also nice to see the column’s picks of Danny Ings (£6.1m) and Alexandre Lacazette (£9.3m) also joining in on the fun with more goals.

It just goes to shows that there is value still to be found in unexpected places. 

With that in mind, here are three differentials worth thinking about for Gameweek 14.

Gabriel Jesus

Aguero’s absence could unlock Jesus’ potential as a Fantasy asset

Price: £9.5m

Ownership: 1.9% 

GW14 Opponent: Newcastle United (away)

It’s not very often that Fantasy managers are treated to a striker priced at less than £10M becomes a credible starting option for the Premier League’s reigning champions. 

But with Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) out injured for a few games, the door into our teams looks to have been opened for Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m). 

The Brazilian has only scored three league goals this season and for the most part, he’s just made cameo substitute appearances but when he has played, he has delivered.

Jesus has started four matches this season and has attacking returns in each of them, while four of his five goal involvements in 2019/20 have come away from home. Both of those statistics bode well for Gameweeks 14 and 15 when Manchester City are on the road without Aguero, against Newcastle and Burnley.

The Magpies are without a clean sheet since Gameweek 8 while Burnley have so far conceded seven goals at home to opposition from last season’s top-six.

Some Fantasy managers might be put off by the fact that Jesus has only scored 10 times in his last 37 league appearances. However, he has still registered a Fantasy attacking return every 99 minutes during the same period. 

It certainly shows that Jesus has made the most of his limited game time.

Dele Alli 

Alli could seriously benefit from Mourinho’s arrival at Spurs

Price: £8.4m

Ownership: 1.4%

GW14 Opponent: Bournemouth (home)

Dele Alli (£8.4m) has made a fantastic start to life under Jose Mourinho at Tottenham Hotspur and can be a fantastic differential option moving forward.

Without a start in the first eight Gameweeks, the England international regained his regular spot in the team in Gameweek 9, before Mauricio Pochettino left, and since then he has three attacking returns in the Premier League.

Mourinho’s arrival has already had an impact on Spurs as Gameweek 13 saw them record a first away league win of the campaign with three goals in one match for the first time since September.

He then oversaw a dramatic comeback 4-2 win over Olympiakos on Tuesday night.

One of the players to have stood out in each of these matches was Alli who registered an assist against West Ham and scored Spurs’ first goal in the Champions League.

While we don’t have too much relevant data available just yet, and the likes of James Maddison (£7.6m) and Christian Pulisic (£7.5m) are currently cheaper, getting in on Alli now could be a rewarding move.

Tottenham as a whole, including Alli, have the potential to be reinvigorated under Mourinho for the foreseeable future, especially when considering they must get back to winning ways if they are to finish in a respectable position come May. 

Alli himself has been deployed in a number 10 role and, thus far, has looked comfortable and dangerous.

Tottenham have scored almost two goals per home league match this season and in Gameweek 14 host a Bournemouth team with just one clean sheet on the road in 2019/20.

Danny Ings 

Danny Ings cannot stop scoring but is still owned by less than 5%

Price: £6.1m

Ownership: 4.2%

GW14 Opponent: Watford (away)

We might sound like a broken record recommending Ings for a second week running but it’s hard to ignore him when he’s scoring goals. 

That said, the wider public are doing their best to overlook him because despite his recent form still just 4.2% own the Southampton striker.

Among all forwards over the last six Gameweeks, only Jamie Vardy (£9.7m) scored more goals than Ings. 

Players such as Teemu Pukki (£6.6m), Callum Wilson (£7.7m) and Diogo Jota (£6.1m) have had far more touches in the penalty box than Ings and yet, since Gameweek 8 they’ve all failed to score while the former Burnley man has found the net four times.

It just goes to show that Ings hasn’t been wasteful with his limited goal-scoring opportunities of late and is even capable of scoring away from home at Arsenal and Manchester City.

Right now, there isn’t another striker in the same price bracket displaying the same kind of form as him.

Having said that, Southampton have only won two league game this season and it’s not a huge surprise that they’re currently found in 19th place on the back of pretty derisory home form. 

On the plus side, it’s clear that when they do score Ings’ has an important part to play – he has been their main forward driving outlet. 

After all, he has been involved with 54% of the Saints’ league goals since August. 

They now have a good run of upcoming games that they simply must win to avoid a relegation dog fight from the New Year. 

Up first is a Watford team currently short of some key defensive personnel. Craig Dawson (£4.8m), Christian Kabasele (£4.3m), Sebastian Prödl (£4.0m) and Daryl Janmaat (£4.4m) are all injured for Gameweek 14.

Nominated for ‘Best in Fantasy Football – Editorial’ at the Football Content Awards 2020

Which FPL assets are on set-piece duties at their clubs? 1

VOTE FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL SCOUT BY
CLICKING HERE.

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £19.99. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

2,503 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Le Bluff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Crazy how Mane (c) could feel like a slight differential this week, and great if you're chasing. Just goes to show how well Vardy is performing.

    For me, though, Brighton have been generally appalling away from home (one of the lowest xGC). Liverpool are averaging 2/3 goals a game, Mane remains in great form, and you'd expect a reaction after their draw against Napoli. Also, Fabinho being out may mean that they have to go on the offensive even more.

    I think the extra point for a goal and clean sheet just swing it in Mane's favour for me.

    1. No Professionals
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Penalties swing it back to vardy for me.

      1. Le Bluff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        Very fair point. You can't go wrong with either tbh.

        I'm just hedging my bets that Liverpool will win more convincingly than Leicester, and so therefore I expect Mane to be involved in more goals.

      2. DannyDrinkVodka
        • 1 Year
        10 months, 25 days ago

        That and Salah will be taking points away from Mane....

        1. Annie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          10 months, 25 days ago

          doesn't work like that.

          1. DannyDrinkVodka
            • 1 Year
            10 months, 25 days ago

            Feels like a massive haul for Salah tomorrow

            1. Le Bluff
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              10 months, 25 days ago

              Salah back to hog that right touchline and create all the space for Mane to drift centrally and poach his goals 😉

    2. Link
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Comparing Brighton to Everton's defensive stats - I think I'm with you.

      Saying that, I can't see past Leicester easily beating Everton and condemning Silva. Tough one

      1. Le Bluff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        See my above comment - there's nothing in it really. I just think Liverpool will win more convincingly than Leicester will, and so that tips slightly more in Mane's favour for me.

        You're right with the stats; Brighton's away form/performances/stats have been awful. Everton have also been poor but the stats say that they've been unlucky with the amount of goals they've conceded (although Vardy doesn't need many chances to score!).

        1. Tamagotchi Massacre
          • 6 Years
          10 months, 25 days ago

          Is it bad luck? genuine question as I haven't looked into it. What's the difference now between a great and a poor defence, maybe about 6-7 goals? That's a fair bit of bad luck. Given quant stats are basically just a simple description of a complex qualitative context I'd be more suspicious that the stats aren't the right stats or aren't capable of telling the story, than just bad luck

          1. Le Bluff
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            10 months, 25 days ago

            Last 4 away matches:

            Big Chances Conceded:
            BRIGHTON: 17 - most in the league
            EVERTON: 4 - least(!) in the league

            Shots On Target Conceded:
            BRIGHTON: 33 - most in the league
            EVERTON: 16 - 7th best in the league

            There's most stats similar to those but make of those what you will. Maybe Pickford is just having a shocker?!

            1. Link
              • 10 Years
              10 months, 25 days ago

              Worth noting the difference in quality of opposition in these away games too... Everton have played Saints/Brighton/Burnley/Bournemouth

    3. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 6 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      2 penalty goals already for Vardy. Pretty meaningless stat but that translates to best part of a 20% chance of a spot kick. Pretty big deal I captain territory

    4. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      I'm with you.

    5. Qaiss
      • 4 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Yeah but can Mane play 90 minutes every single game?

      1. Le Bluff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        He's completed 90 minutes in the last 7 consecutive GWs.

        Don't think he'll be withdrawn before 90 if Liverpool need a goal against Brighton. Even if he is subbed, you'd think the game would be sewn up and Mane would have been involved.

        Also, I don't think Klopp can really afford to rest/sub him with Salah still finding his feet after his ankle problem. It's more likely Salah will be subbed IMO.

    6. El Lobito 10
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Got both, captaining neither. Captain Hurrikane

  2. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Too many good choices on my wishlist this week - the 3 above plus, Son, Kane & Aurier

    1. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      And Pulisic

  3. Am sorry to say again it�…
    • 2 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Predicting Salah & Sterling hauls this week.

    1. Covid Martial
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Mystic Meg over here.

  4. Goonerly
    • 2 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Team G2G for this week?
    Pope
    VVD - Soy - Lund - Aurier
    Mané - KDB - Sterling - Tielemans - Mount
    Vardy

    Got 1 FT, 0 ITB.
    Got any suggestions for a move or do I bank the transfer?

  5. No Professionals
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Struggling thanks to tammy. Obviously wait until press conference, but if he is out..

    Pope
    VVD Lundstram Kelly
    Mane Son Maddison Mount
    Vardy Abraham Jimenez

    Button Cantwell Otamendi Rico
    3.5m itb 0ft

    A) otamendi to TAA and bench Kelly
    B) abraham to kane

    1. Effe
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      A

  6. iL PiStOlErO
    • 1 Year
    10 months, 25 days ago

    What is the best thing to do here? If Tammy is out long term would you do Auba&Tammy&Maddison to Vardy&Rashford&Pulisic for -4?

    The team is:

    Pope Button
    TAA Lund Soyuncu Rico Guilbert
    Salah KdB Son Maddison Dendo
    Auba Tammy Mousset

    2ft, 0.1itb

    1. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      i wouldnt get rid of auba now, hoping for a new manager/no manager bounce

      1. iL PiStOlErO
        • 1 Year
        10 months, 25 days ago

        But then I have nothing else to do. Auba is the biggest problem. Also considered doing Auba Mousse to Vardy Ings.

    2. theoldgit
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Yes

  7. Andrew
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Hi guys I have 2FT and £0.8 ITB suggestions please, obviously Tammy is orange flagged:-

    Ryan (Button)
    Soyuncu Tomori Lundstram (Kelly Rico)
    Mane Sterling KDB Tielemans (Dendoncker)
    Abraham Vardy Jimenez

  8. Soto Ayam
    • 1 Year
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Bank it. Team looks solid

    1. Andrew
      • 8 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Was that a reply to me?

      1. Soto Ayam
        • 1 Year
        10 months, 25 days ago

        No sorry, it was to goonerly above.

        1. Goonerly
          • 2 Years
          10 months, 25 days ago

          Ahh, cheers then!

      2. Goonerly
        • 2 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        Or me?

    2. Amey
      • 2 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Thanks

  9. The Mighty Whites
    • 5 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    2FT, 2.2 ITB, thoughts?

    Pope, Button

    TAA, Pereira, Lundstram, Cahill, Rico

    Mane, KdB, Maddison, Mount, Nakamba

    Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez

  10. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Can I get some advice on what changes to make moving forward? I need a differential I think...

    Pope
    Tomori / Lundstrum / TAA
    Tielemens/ Mane / Martial / Sterling
    Jiminez / Vardy / Abraham*

    Bench: Button, Rico, Dendoncker, Kelly

    1FT 0.4 itb

    Maybe Abraham to someone? Or save?

    1. lindeg
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      save if abraham is somewhat fit, could do martial to puli

    2. Champ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Its not a differential in the true sense, but you could double up with Salah instead of Sterling, Ings for Tammy and upgrade Tiel to Pulisic,

    3. theguy69
      • 1 Year
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Sterling out

  11. andy85wsm
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    If you could choose 3 sides to play at home right now would you get much better than Watford, Norwich and West Ham?

    Can see why Ings is so popular. I guess key question as always is whether he can stay fit for the next 4

    1. Covid Martial
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Yeah and whether he'll be risked for all four. Would be a big surprise of he started all of the next three.

    2. Champ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Nice switch from Ings to Wesley for his turn of fixtures coming up could be an option

    3. Le Bluff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Ralph still seems to be managing his minutes quite well; he's regularly subbed early which, even as a new owner, I'm okay with. I'd rather he plays 70/80 minutes against these sides over the next few weeks.

      Also, Andy, have you seen Southampton's rests between games? It's actually pretty good:

      Sat 30 Nov 17:30 14 WAT (H)
      Wed 4 Dec 19:30 15 NOR (H)
      Sun 8 Dec 14:00 16 NEW (A)
      Sat 14 Dec 17:30 17 WHU (H)
      Sat 21 Dec 15:00 18 AVL (A)
      Thu 26 Dec 15:00 19 CHE (A)
      Sat 28 Dec 15:00 20 CRY (H)

      The only major concern there is their match away at Chelsea which you could feasibly bench him in anyway.

      Sat > Wed > Sun seem to be adequate rest for Ings. And then it's just weekly matches against poor teams (aside from Chelsea) anyway.

      1. andy85wsm
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 10 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        I was surprised to see last night that he'd started a good chunk of games in a row. The only one he played 45 mins in recently was the Leicester game and to be fair that was a freak result anyway.

        Maybe they're making some good progress with hit fitness, or maybe I'm clutching at straws? 🙂

  12. lindeg
    • 1 Year
    10 months, 25 days ago

    D. James > Alli?

    Bearing in mind that it would be a Tottenham triple up with Gazza and Aurier.

    Yay or nay?

    1. jtreble
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      No triple ups at all for me over the run from hell: GW14-21.

    2. Pukki Party
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Yay

    3. Atlas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      If you have the money go for it imo, Alli looks rejuvenated undir Jose

  13. Fernando Torres
    • 9 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Captain

    A) Kane
    B) Vardy
    C) Mane

    1. El Lobito 10
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      I'm on A but B is hard to resist

  14. Lionac
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Abraham to who?

    A) Jesus
    B) Laca
    C) Ings

    Already have Vardy and Jimenez

    1. DAZZ
      • 6 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Jesus

    2. jtreble
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Jesus for me.

    3. KingOllie
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      im going B

  15. Jay Jay Okocha
    • 7 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    If Abraham is out for 2+ games...

    A) Son + Mousset
    B) Pulisic + Ings

    1. LarryDuff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Tough one but I'd say A

    2. jtreble
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Consider Jesus.

      1. The Mighty I
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        What if your not the religious type?

        1. mattg
          • 3 Years
          10 months, 25 days ago

          It wouldn't worry you that Jesus isn't nailed on at City, then.

  16. DAZZ
    • 6 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Cantwell > Pulisic -4? Yay or Nay. Own Mount

    1. LarryDuff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Nay

  17. LarryDuff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Should Tammy be out for awhile and without losing any value, would Robbo and Tammy > Jesus and Aurier make sense after this week? 🙂

    1. jtreble
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Nice move imho. Hit?

      1. LarryDuff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        Planning for next week for free 🙂

  18. jb1985
    • 2 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    The last 2 game weeks i have gone from:

    2,082,732 > 1,066,557 > 680,429

    Hoping to break into top 500,000 would be nice but all relies on correct captain choice, Huge % will do Vardy but i just want to gamble on a differential like Mane or Son. I think i will stick with captain sensible and go with Vardy.

    1. LarryDuff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Mane for me

    2. DAZZ
      • 6 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Well done mate! Good work. I’d stick with Vardy. You can crack on with differential picks later in the season. Stick with the pack and stay safe for now.

    3. ElliotJHP
      • 8 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      I don't think Mane at home to Brighton will be a differential.

  19. Klopp it
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Pope
    Lundstram, taa, Pereira
    Pulisic, kdb, mane, Maddison, cantwell
    vardy, ings

    Bench, mcgovern, o'connell, cathcart, abraham

    1. LarryDuff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Is there a question you're trying to ask? Haha

  20. Klopp it
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    1ft 0itb what would you do with this?

    Pope
    Lundstram, taa, Pereira
    Pulisic, kdb, mane, Maddison,
    cantwell
    vardy, ings

    Bench, mcgovern, o'connell, cathcart, abraham

    1. LarryDuff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Hold I'd say

      1. Klopp it
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        Thanks 🙂

  21. Rinseboy
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    best striker up to 8.6?

    A - Ings
    B - Rashford
    C - Somone else?

    Got Jimi

    1. jtreble
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Rashford is currently the top forward in xA, xG and xGI. Worth a look imho.

      1. Rinseboy
        • 8 Years
        10 months, 25 days ago

        cheers may do KDB and Tammy to Son and Rashy

  22. Newsman70
    • 8 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Abraham out for -4 for Jesus? Going for mini league and monthly prize.

    Team
    Gazzaniga Button
    Söyüncü Lundstrom TAA Tomori Rico
    Mane KDB Zaha Tielemans Hayden
    Jiminez Vardy Abraham
    2.8 k itb

  23. Rhodes your boat
    • 4 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Struggling to choose between salah or son as my sterling replacement and feel all 3 could haul this week!

    Own mane and kdb if that’s helps

    1. BananaMan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Son
      Variety!

  24. BananaMan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    **Repost - bottomed out**

    Arsenal Fans.

    Will Emery departure result in instant performance boost as per Mourinho leaving Utd last season or is the problem deeper than the manager?

    What I'm really saying is do I hold Auba or swap him for Kane?

    1. KingOllie
      • 5 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      hold auba

  25. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Play Rico or Mings if Tammy out???

    Or a hit for Kelly??

  26. KingOllie
    • 5 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    La(C)a for me this weekend.

  27. Covid Martial
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Which one?

    A) Lys Mousset
    B) Lyse Doucet

  28. Holmes
    • 7 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Another week without Pulisic, sigh...

  29. PogBruno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Bench and Captaincy Right?

    Gazza
    TAA Robbo Soy
    KDB Mane (c) Son Mount
    Vardy Abraham Raul

    Button Lund Kelly Donkey

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Yep

    2. JoeSoap
      • 7 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Looks good

  30. FPL ElasticO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    10 months, 25 days ago

    Is it worth transfer in these players ??
    A. Dendoncker >>> Son & play 3-5-2
    B. Cahill >>> Aurier
    C. Abraham >>> 5.0
    D. All three for -8

    1. PogBruno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      10 months, 25 days ago

      Nah