Spot the Differential

Jesus allows FPL managers to exploit Aguero absence

Differentials continue to be the bedrock of success for Fantasy Premier League managers in 2019/20.

Even though Gameweek 14 saw the popular players deliver, the top three FPL points scorers of the round each had ownership of 3% or less.

It was also nice to see the column’s picks of Danny Ings (£6.1m) and Alexandre Lacazette (£9.3m) also joining in on the fun with more goals.

It just goes to shows that there is value still to be found in unexpected places. 

With that in mind, here are three differentials worth thinking about for Gameweek 14.

Gabriel Jesus

Aguero’s absence could unlock Jesus’ potential as a Fantasy asset

Price: £9.5m

Ownership: 1.9% 

GW14 Opponent: Newcastle United (away)

It’s not very often that Fantasy managers are treated to a striker priced at less than £10M becomes a credible starting option for the Premier League’s reigning champions. 

But with Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) out injured for a few games, the door into our teams looks to have been opened for Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m). 

The Brazilian has only scored three league goals this season and for the most part, he’s just made cameo substitute appearances but when he has played, he has delivered.

Jesus has started four matches this season and has attacking returns in each of them, while four of his five goal involvements in 2019/20 have come away from home. Both of those statistics bode well for Gameweeks 14 and 15 when Manchester City are on the road without Aguero, against Newcastle and Burnley.

The Magpies are without a clean sheet since Gameweek 8 while Burnley have so far conceded seven goals at home to opposition from last season’s top-six.

Some Fantasy managers might be put off by the fact that Jesus has only scored 10 times in his last 37 league appearances. However, he has still registered a Fantasy attacking return every 99 minutes during the same period. 

It certainly shows that Jesus has made the most of his limited game time.

Dele Alli 

Alli could seriously benefit from Mourinho’s arrival at Spurs

Price: £8.4m

Ownership: 1.4%

GW14 Opponent: Bournemouth (home)

Dele Alli (£8.4m) has made a fantastic start to life under Jose Mourinho at Tottenham Hotspur and can be a fantastic differential option moving forward.

Without a start in the first eight Gameweeks, the England international regained his regular spot in the team in Gameweek 9, before Mauricio Pochettino left, and since then he has three attacking returns in the Premier League.

Mourinho’s arrival has already had an impact on Spurs as Gameweek 13 saw them record a first away league win of the campaign with three goals in one match for the first time since September.

He then oversaw a dramatic comeback 4-2 win over Olympiakos on Tuesday night.

One of the players to have stood out in each of these matches was Alli who registered an assist against West Ham and scored Spurs’ first goal in the Champions League.

While we don’t have too much relevant data available just yet, and the likes of James Maddison (£7.6m) and Christian Pulisic (£7.5m) are currently cheaper, getting in on Alli now could be a rewarding move.

Tottenham as a whole, including Alli, have the potential to be reinvigorated under Mourinho for the foreseeable future, especially when considering they must get back to winning ways if they are to finish in a respectable position come May. 

Alli himself has been deployed in a number 10 role and, thus far, has looked comfortable and dangerous.

Tottenham have scored almost two goals per home league match this season and in Gameweek 14 host a Bournemouth team with just one clean sheet on the road in 2019/20.

Danny Ings 

Danny Ings cannot stop scoring but is still owned by less than 5%

Price: £6.1m

Ownership: 4.2%

GW14 Opponent: Watford (away)

We might sound like a broken record recommending Ings for a second week running but it’s hard to ignore him when he’s scoring goals. 

That said, the wider public are doing their best to overlook him because despite his recent form still just 4.2% own the Southampton striker.

Among all forwards over the last six Gameweeks, only Jamie Vardy (£9.7m) scored more goals than Ings. 

Players such as Teemu Pukki (£6.6m), Callum Wilson (£7.7m) and Diogo Jota (£6.1m) have had far more touches in the penalty box than Ings and yet, since Gameweek 8 they’ve all failed to score while the former Burnley man has found the net four times.

It just goes to show that Ings hasn’t been wasteful with his limited goal-scoring opportunities of late and is even capable of scoring away from home at Arsenal and Manchester City.

Right now, there isn’t another striker in the same price bracket displaying the same kind of form as him.

Having said that, Southampton have only won two league game this season and it’s not a huge surprise that they’re currently found in 19th place on the back of pretty derisory home form. 

On the plus side, it’s clear that when they do score Ings’ has an important part to play – he has been their main forward driving outlet. 

After all, he has been involved with 54% of the Saints’ league goals since August. 

They now have a good run of upcoming games that they simply must win to avoid a relegation dog fight from the New Year. 

Up first is a Watford team currently short of some key defensive personnel. Craig Dawson (£4.8m), Christian Kabasele (£4.3m), Sebastian Prödl (£4.0m) and Daryl Janmaat (£4.4m) are all injured for Gameweek 14.

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2,503 Comments Post a Comment
  1. lindeg
    • 1 Year
    11 months, 4 days ago

    have got Jesus in for Abraham only so i have more incentive to watch the early game tomorrow and it doesnt feel good ...

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Newcastle are a b*tch at home.

    2. MarcusAurelius
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Ederson

      Cancelo Stones Fernandinho Mendy

      KDB Rodri Silva

      Mahrez STERLING Bilva

      Just sayin...

      1. lindeg
        • 1 Year
        11 months, 4 days ago

        wouldnt be surprised

        1. MarcusAurelius
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          Hopefully not. I want to do Tammy to Jesus too

      2. Stef rocks
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Waiting for cameo appearance and 2 goals 🙂

  2. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    these are the transfers i want to make this week

    A. Sterling to Son
    B. Mount to Pulisic
    C. Tammy to Jesus

    original plan was to do A and B but now the tammy injury means that i may have to do C.

    does anyone recomending saving one of these for next week? obv A is needed to fund B and/or C.

    i could just keep mount and do the move next week but really want pulisic for WHU.

    thought?

  3. BigBillyBass
    • 2 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Play one:

    A) Lundstram
    B) Soyuncu
    C) Tomori

    1. Liastro ⭐️
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      C

    2. MarcusAurelius
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Never bench Lord Lundstram!

    3. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Lundstram... And fix your team structure.

      1. MarcusAurelius
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        This!

      2. BigBillyBass
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        What do you mean??

        1. Yank Revolution
          • 9 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          Benching headache of your own creation.

          1. BigBillyBass
            • 2 Years
            11 months, 4 days ago

            Ahhh fair

        2. MarcusAurelius
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          He means if you have to make this decision then there is something wrong with your team. The only players you should be playing ahead of those 3 this week are Trent or Chilwell. And if you have those then you have a benching headache every week

        3. Brosstan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          You have too many viable defenders which means you are wasting money on the bench every week. Id downgrade one of them to complete fodder and upgrade somewhere else.

          1. Brosstan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            11 months, 4 days ago

            Or downgrade a mid/striker and change to 4 at the back

            1. BigBillyBass
              • 2 Years
              11 months, 4 days ago

              Here's my team:

              Pope (Button)
              TAA Soy Lund (Tomori Rico)
              Mane KDB Son Tielemans Pulisic
              Vardy Jimenez (Connolly)

    4. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      C

  4. aapoman
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    2ft and 0.6itb

    Pope
    TAA Soy Coady
    Salah Mane KDB Tielemans Mount
    Tammy* Jimenez

    4.0; Lundstram, Guilbert, Greenwood

    Tammy and Mount to Vardy and a max 5.1 mid? Who would the best 5.1 mid be?

  5. Liastro ⭐️
    • 8 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Pope Button
    TAA Tomori Soyuncu Mings Lundstram
    Sterling Mane Martial Mount Dendoncker
    Vardy Abraham Jimenez

    Thoughts on this using 2FTs?.

    Sterling + Abraham -> Son + Jesus (2FTs)

    1. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Looks decent.

  6. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Bottomed

    A) Janmaat to Taylor (and play him) and bench Abraham
    B) Abraham and Nakamba to Connolly and Pulisic (-4)

    Thanks

    1. Tshelby
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Can't field 11 players? I'm waiting for 2ft's and more news on Tammy to maybe remove him

      1. Stef rocks
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        It is confirmed hr will miss WHU game

        1. pumpkinhead
          • 5 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          Google

  7. pumpkinhead
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    I know Vardy is the 'obvious' captain... but something is pulling me to Son!

    1. TONY123
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      If something's pulling you to your son, you should see a therapist

  8. Tshelby
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Gtg or FT needed?

    1FT/0.2 ITB

    Pope
    TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Robbo
    Martial, KdB, Mane, Mount
    Jimenez, Vardy

    Hayden, Janmaat*, Tammy*

    1. TheDragon
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Wow - pretty much identical to mine below.

      Really not sure between save or Tammy -> Ings/ Mousset

      1. Tshelby
        • 5 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Ha true! I'm doing your B. Don't know if I want Ings or Mousset and it could be nice to play Soy/Lund and 2ft's give more space for next gw. Surely cause I want to get rid of Martial next gw.

    2. Krupinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      GTG, mainly cause I have the same team apart from Aurier and not Robbo 🙂

  9. TheDragon
    • 2 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Quite a basic question but would appreciate thoughts.

    1FT 0.5ITB

    Ryan
    TAA, Robbo, Soy, Lund
    Mane, KDB, Mount, Tielmans
    Vardy, Jimenez
    Button l Rico, Dendoncker, Abraham

    A) Abraham -> Ings and bench Soy / Lund (also gives me cover if Mount doesn’t play)

    B) Save FT and the 2 transfers next week for much more flexibility to deal with Abraham (& Mount) if need be.

  10. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Worth playing Willems or taking a -4 to get Abraham out?

  11. Tamagotchi Massacre
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    All those Watford injuries must have lucky lucky Daniel Ings owners licking their lips

    Disclaimer: Ings owner

    1. KingOllie
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Go on danny

    2. pumpkinhead
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Oh yes... enough to captain him?

    3. HashAttack
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      I'm hoping for lots of save points for Foster

  12. Gooner Kebab
    • 8 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Tammy to Ayew?? Yay or foolish?

    1. acidicleo
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Where is the cash going?

      1. Gooner Kebab
        • 8 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Can't afford Rashford. Either Ingsy or Ayew.

        1. The Big Fella
          • 4 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          He means where are you spending the difference

  13. FOO FIGHTER
    • 1 Year
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Everyone running to Jesus.

    He has not been that great...

    1. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Never been great but a Man City striker will always get goals. At 9.5 hes pretty good value.

  14. KINGS
    • 1 Year
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Who takes higher priority? Kane or Son?

    1. Hot Toddy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Jesus

      1. JustPark
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Not everyone 🙂

  15. Gunner1290
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Who scores more in the next 3 gameweeks:

    A) Jesus (new bur MUN)
    B) Firmino (BRI EVE bou)
    C) Lacazette (nor BRI whu)

    1. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      I'd choose b tbh

    2. KINGS
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      C

    3. OptimusBlack
      • 7 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      C

  16. acidicleo
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Sorry didn't see presser updates..
    Is tammy definitely out?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      yes

    2. FOO FIGHTER
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Yes

    3. Zim0
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Why would u trust us over the actual Chelsea football club website. Just Google it. But yes he's out

    4. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Great to hear about our first gay PL footballer!

      What, injured????

      Sakes

      1. La Roja
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Homophobic chants

  17. Ji-Sung Park
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Who is likely to score more points in GW13?
    A) Pulisic and Lundstram
    B) Mount and Jimenez

    1. Stef rocks
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      B but if Mount plays

  18. andres
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Pope
    TAA Soy Lund
    Mane KDB son tielemans
    Abraham* Vardy jimenez

    Pieters, Cantwell, Kelly 1.6 ITB 1FT

    A tammy to ings
    B kdb, tammy to kane, pulisic (-4)
    C kdb, tammy to jesus, pulisic (-4)

    I feel like I need pulisic as by selling tammy i would go with no chelsea..

  19. Sid07
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    1) Tammy to jiminez (-4)
    2) Sterling + tammy to pulisic + Kane (-4)

    1. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      2

  20. RedWolf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Best replacement for Tammy?
    Have Jimmy and Vardy already. No cash itb

    1. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Ings, Mousset, Wesley

  21. Jullepuu
    • 1 Year
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Should I do:
    A) Tammy to Jimenez/Ings
    B) Sterling and Connolly to Son and Ings for -4.Tammy would be on on the bench.

  22. fplking14
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Do Tammy > Ings/Rashford or Mount > Pulisic for free?

  23. Jurgen Flopp
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Play Creswell or do Tammy to Jimenez for -4??

    1. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Cresswell.

    2. Debauchy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Damn Cress on probable 0 tough 😆

      1. GreennRed
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        0 > -4

  24. Woy_is_back
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Mount to Pulisic and Abe to Ings/Mousset/Ayew

    or just the second one

  25. sovietrockettes
    • 1 Year
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Sterling>Salah, Digne>Taylor, Abraham>Lacazette for -4

    Y/N?

  26. iL PiStOlErO
    • 1 Year
    11 months, 4 days ago

    So with Tammy news is it mad to do Auba & Tammy & Madds to Vardy & Rash & Pulisic for -4?

    Or should I still keep Auba because of the fixtures and new manager?

    The team is:

    Pope Button
    TAA Lund Soyuncu Rico Guilbert
    Salah KdB Son Maddison Dendo
    Auba Tammy Mousset

    2ft, 0.1itb

    Cheers.

    1. TONY123
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Those look like great moves on paper. Impossible to say how Arsenal will react this weekend though, Arsenal and Auba could easily explode.

      1. Tamagotchi Massacre
        • 6 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        They're not an amazing team that has down med tools, he's been fired because he put together a hopelessly imbalanced team that can defend and can't transition from defence to attack. Odds on them 'exploding' seem not great

        1. Tamagotchi Massacre
          • 6 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          *downed tools

      2. iL PiStOlErO
        • 1 Year
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Thats my biggest issue with those moves. But then again if I dont sell Auba I can't do much with my team, he have funds needed and is blocking my moves. Also to not have Che cover for next two juicy fixtures is killing me.

        1. Tamagotchi Massacre
          • 6 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          Losing Auber won't harm you regardless of what he does. Lose him, get him back if it becomes necessary

        2. TONY123
          • 5 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          Yeah overall the moves make sense. I'd do them as well. Just don't get too angry if Auba scores a brace in a 3-1 win 😛

          1. iL PiStOlErO
            • 1 Year
            11 months, 4 days ago

            What can you do, it would be classic fpl, but Lacca back also makes me feel better if I do it.

  27. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Tammy & McGinn -> Jimenez & Maddison for a hit?

  28. PlayPercentage
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Jesus looks to be worth a punt.
    A Man City striker at less than 2% ownership who will get lots of game time.
    City have now qualified for the Champions League knockout stage and will focus on chasing down Liverpool in the league.

    No need to overthink who will replace Abraham.

    1. 1314
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      better than Jimenez who's doing well you reckon?

    2. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Guess what you need to ask yourself is would you pay 9.5m for a city midfielder who gets middling to good returns, because that's what Jesus is basically. He won't be hogging points, city just don't play that way. My guess is given they have sh1t fixtures and that there's no guarantee of minutes, he'll tick over and be a solid but unspectacular signing

  29. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    mcginn/aguero/abraham to pulisic/kane and ings for one hit ?

    thank you 🙂

    1. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Looks good

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 6 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        thanks

  30. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Evening lads, any ideas what to do here? Thanks! 2FT, 0.6ITB

    Heaton,Button
    TAA,Soyuncu,Chambers,Rico,Lund
    Salah,Sterling,Kdb,Mount,Cantwell
    Wesley,Jimenez,Tammy