Spot the Differential

Jesus allows FPL managers to exploit Aguero absence

Differentials continue to be the bedrock of success for Fantasy Premier League managers in 2019/20.

Even though Gameweek 14 saw the popular players deliver, the top three FPL points scorers of the round each had ownership of 3% or less.

It was also nice to see the column’s picks of Danny Ings (£6.1m) and Alexandre Lacazette (£9.3m) also joining in on the fun with more goals.

It just goes to shows that there is value still to be found in unexpected places. 

With that in mind, here are three differentials worth thinking about for Gameweek 14.

Gabriel Jesus

Aguero’s absence could unlock Jesus’ potential as a Fantasy asset

Price: £9.5m

Ownership: 1.9% 

GW14 Opponent: Newcastle United (away)

It’s not very often that Fantasy managers are treated to a striker priced at less than £10M becomes a credible starting option for the Premier League’s reigning champions. 

But with Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) out injured for a few games, the door into our teams looks to have been opened for Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m). 

The Brazilian has only scored three league goals this season and for the most part, he’s just made cameo substitute appearances but when he has played, he has delivered.

Jesus has started four matches this season and has attacking returns in each of them, while four of his five goal involvements in 2019/20 have come away from home. Both of those statistics bode well for Gameweeks 14 and 15 when Manchester City are on the road without Aguero, against Newcastle and Burnley.

The Magpies are without a clean sheet since Gameweek 8 while Burnley have so far conceded seven goals at home to opposition from last season’s top-six.

Some Fantasy managers might be put off by the fact that Jesus has only scored 10 times in his last 37 league appearances. However, he has still registered a Fantasy attacking return every 99 minutes during the same period. 

It certainly shows that Jesus has made the most of his limited game time.

Dele Alli 

Alli could seriously benefit from Mourinho’s arrival at Spurs

Price: £8.4m

Ownership: 1.4%

GW14 Opponent: Bournemouth (home)

Dele Alli (£8.4m) has made a fantastic start to life under Jose Mourinho at Tottenham Hotspur and can be a fantastic differential option moving forward.

Without a start in the first eight Gameweeks, the England international regained his regular spot in the team in Gameweek 9, before Mauricio Pochettino left, and since then he has three attacking returns in the Premier League.

Mourinho’s arrival has already had an impact on Spurs as Gameweek 13 saw them record a first away league win of the campaign with three goals in one match for the first time since September.

He then oversaw a dramatic comeback 4-2 win over Olympiakos on Tuesday night.

One of the players to have stood out in each of these matches was Alli who registered an assist against West Ham and scored Spurs’ first goal in the Champions League.

While we don’t have too much relevant data available just yet, and the likes of James Maddison (£7.6m) and Christian Pulisic (£7.5m) are currently cheaper, getting in on Alli now could be a rewarding move.

Tottenham as a whole, including Alli, have the potential to be reinvigorated under Mourinho for the foreseeable future, especially when considering they must get back to winning ways if they are to finish in a respectable position come May. 

Alli himself has been deployed in a number 10 role and, thus far, has looked comfortable and dangerous.

Tottenham have scored almost two goals per home league match this season and in Gameweek 14 host a Bournemouth team with just one clean sheet on the road in 2019/20.

Danny Ings 

Danny Ings cannot stop scoring but is still owned by less than 5%

Price: £6.1m

Ownership: 4.2%

GW14 Opponent: Watford (away)

We might sound like a broken record recommending Ings for a second week running but it’s hard to ignore him when he’s scoring goals. 

That said, the wider public are doing their best to overlook him because despite his recent form still just 4.2% own the Southampton striker.

Among all forwards over the last six Gameweeks, only Jamie Vardy (£9.7m) scored more goals than Ings. 

Players such as Teemu Pukki (£6.6m), Callum Wilson (£7.7m) and Diogo Jota (£6.1m) have had far more touches in the penalty box than Ings and yet, since Gameweek 8 they’ve all failed to score while the former Burnley man has found the net four times.

It just goes to show that Ings hasn’t been wasteful with his limited goal-scoring opportunities of late and is even capable of scoring away from home at Arsenal and Manchester City.

Right now, there isn’t another striker in the same price bracket displaying the same kind of form as him.

Having said that, Southampton have only won two league game this season and it’s not a huge surprise that they’re currently found in 19th place on the back of pretty derisory home form. 

On the plus side, it’s clear that when they do score Ings’ has an important part to play – he has been their main forward driving outlet. 

After all, he has been involved with 54% of the Saints’ league goals since August. 

They now have a good run of upcoming games that they simply must win to avoid a relegation dog fight from the New Year. 

Up first is a Watford team currently short of some key defensive personnel. Craig Dawson (£4.8m), Christian Kabasele (£4.3m), Sebastian Prödl (£4.0m) and Daryl Janmaat (£4.4m) are all injured for Gameweek 14.

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2,503 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Dynamic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Mane KDB Martial Mount Dendo
    Vardy Jimenez Ings
    1FT

    A) Save FT
    B) Mount -> Pulisic

    1. Me Spurs
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      B

    2. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      A

    3. Sicaholic
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      A

    4. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      A

    5. jtreble
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      A for me.

  2. Kroos Kontrol
    • 7 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    First time in a while I'm banking a transfer, the Tammy injury solves the bench headache. A bit concerned that most of my MF options are secondary/coverage picks, but it's been workign till now...

    Pope (McGovern)
    TAA Robbo Soyuncu Lundstram (Kelly)
    Mane KdB Mount Tielemans (Cantwell)
    Vardy Rashford (Abraham)

    1. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Have you given any thought to playing Cantwell. Lundstram has consistent blanks away at good teams

      1. Tamagotchi Massacre
        • 6 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        *and home to great ones. All hauls come v awful or very poor form teams

  3. mustafa mohamed
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    I'm on wild card.my rank is 730k so I need to take some risks.
    Is it too many differntials or it's worth it
    Schmeichel/mccarthy
    Doherty/chilwell/aurier/lundstrum/rico
    Salah/son/pulisic/özil/cantwell
    Vardy/jesus/mousset

    1. LarryDuff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Not at all, but regardless of new manager Ozil will be rested/rotated over Christmas period I'd think. Also Mane is in too hot form to ignore

    2. Sicaholic
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Do you have funds to upgrade Doherty to robbo/taa? Can consider schmeichel to Henderson. If you want lei def. Soyuncu is probably a better option at that price point

    3. Amey
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Ozil is a bad pick

      1. iL PiStOlErO
        • 1 Year
        11 months, 5 days ago

        This. Go Lacca or Pepe instead.

    4. wolvesmad
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Would do Ozil to Maddison Schmeichel to Cyrstal palace goalie and Mousset to Ings...

    5. JustPark
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Rest is fine but Ozil though..

  4. JustPark
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Tammy to Ings/Mousset for free?

    Ramsdale
    TAA Robbo Soy
    Mane KdB Maddy Mount
    Vardy Jimmy *Tammy
    (Button, Lundy, Hayden, Rico)

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      ings
      then nxt gw mount/maddy to son

    2. Calm
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      I think holding off until more news on Tammy & playing Lund would be a wise move.

      1. JustPark
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Contemplating that myself. Would have made it easier if we knew how long he's out.

  5. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    GTG?

    Gazza
    TAA Robbo Lundy
    Mane(C) Son Pulisic Perez
    Vardy Jesus Jiminez

    Button Rico Dendo Reid

    1. JustPark
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Yep.

  6. FPL FREAK
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Is it worth keeping Abraham for next gw....?? Cuz he is 8.0 in market and 7.6 in my team.. Can't get him back easily...........

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      he may miss 3 games

    2. TherryOnWii
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Depends on your other 2 forwards.

      1. FPL FREAK
        • 6 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Well my team is:

        Pope. Button.
        Tomori. Lundstram. Rico. Engels. Lescalles.
        Mane. Sterling. KDB. Mount. Maddison.
        Vardy. Abraham. Conolly.

        0.0 in bnk and 1 ft

        1. iL PiStOlErO
          • 1 Year
          11 months, 5 days ago

          Sell him cause you have Mount and upgrade that defence.

          1. iL PiStOlErO
            • 1 Year
            11 months, 5 days ago

            Tammy for Ings and use money to upgrade Rico or Lescalles

  7. Sicaholic
    • 8 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    A. Sterling to Salah, keep Tammy
    B. Sterling to Pulisic (have mount alr), Tammy to Firmino/Kane

    Tempted by Liv fixtures, but no data on firmino. Would be great if someone have insights. Thanks.

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      zaha and kane

    2. Basil1977
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      I have Firmino, been playing well, and pretty good stats, just not getting many returns, as in fpl points, hoping the goals start coming

  8. Nightf0x
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Pick team transfers with (itb 14.1) (343 or 442 this gw, mid. Mount son kdb mane)

    A) def. (Soy lund taa kely, lowton to ..)
    - chilwel aurier baldock robo lovren doherty

    B) fwd. (Vardy ings, tamy to ..)
    - boby jesus jimy laca bats ayew mouset or keep tamy for now

  9. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Repost sorry

    Evening lads, any ideas what to do here? Thanks! 2FT, 0.6ITB

    Heaton,Button
    TAA,Soyuncu,Chambers,Rico,Lund
    Salah,Sterling,Kdb,Mount,Cantwell
    Wesley,Jimenez,Tammy

    1. Jon Snow
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Drop Sterling or KdB and bring in Vardy imo

    2. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Plenty of options for change in the front 8

      1. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Vardy the obvious starting point.

  10. Boss Hogg
    • 11 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Abraham and Sterling OUT
    Jesus and Son IN
    (- 4 points)

    Yes or no?

    1. Sicaholic
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Have you considered firmino over Jesus? I'm considering a replacement at that price as well

      1. Slitherene
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Have you considered Lacazette over Firmino?

        1. Sicaholic
          • 8 Years
          11 months, 5 days ago

          Good shout. But I'm not sure how they will perform. Guess I just have an inclination towards Liv attack

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Yes

  11. S.Kuqi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Burned by early transfer.

    What to do?

    A) Play Lundstram

    B) Abraham -> Ings for -4 hit

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      A

    2. wolvesmad
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Play Lund

  12. Az
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 11 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Welcome to my team Danny Ings.

    I transferred you in around this time last season and it was a complete disaster.

    Just get me a couple of goals and all will be forgiven.

    1. S.Kuqi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      You already got Jimenez?

    2. TheDragon
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      why Ings?

      1. Dr. Mantis Toboggan
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Watford's entire defence is injured, he's got 5 goals in his last 7, over 50% involvement, and his fixtures up to GW19 are golden

    3. Dr. Mantis Toboggan
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Now that you mention it I think I remember doing the same thing.

      Last Christmas...

    4. fr3d
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      You already know he's getting injured during a penalty run-up in the 27th minute

      1. Amey
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Tbh next 5 fixtures are amazing.
        But yeah, he won't last in our teams that long 😀

      2. Aztec Kamara
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Didn't I see someone else is taking pens? It would be very unfortunate getting injured while someone else is running up to take it 🙂

    5. Amey
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Nice
      Same here
      Don't care about losing value on Tammy as my TV is 105+

    6. Tambling5
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Yes I am going to do the same. They say insanity is making the same wrong decisions over and over again. Got in Richarlison last game, captained and now got rid of. Did that last year too, I think. Ings is bound to come off! Law of averages, innit!

  13. Gudjohnsen
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Lucaa Moura now an option or are Son, Kane or even Alli better oprions?

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Still bad choice. Son is far better

  14. Jon Snow
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    A) Mane, Son, Pulisic, KdB, Dendoncker
    Vardy, Jimenez, Ings

    or

    B) Mane, Son, Pulisic, Tielemans, Dendoncker
    Vardy, Jimenez, Rashford

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      I like B if Tielemans > Maddison

  15. Lignja
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Kelly good enough to start for next few game weeks and keep Abraham?

    Pope
    Taa, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Kelly
    Kdb, Son, Mane, Pulisic
    Vardy, Jimenez

    Dendoker, Rico, Abraham

    0.0m itb on -4 already

    1. wolvesmad
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Yes

  16. mcgrejam
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Team is...

    Pope
    TAA, Soy, Robertson
    Pulisic, Mane, KDB, Maddison
    Vardy, Jimenez, Abraham

    Subs - Button, McGinn, Lord, Rico

    With Tammy out do I transfer out Rico/McGinn and bring in Traore/Aurier for -4?

    1. wolvesmad
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Hell no

  17. Gudjohnsen
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    KDB to Son?

  18. Gharvey
    • 2 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Dendoker or Cantwell?

    1. rokonto
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      U trollin

      1. Gharvey
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        First sub

        1. rokonto
          • 5 Years
          11 months, 5 days ago

          If ur not trollin then to me it's obvious.... Cantwell

          1. Gharvey
            • 2 Years
            11 months, 5 days ago

            Appreciate your input:) captain Kane, mane or Jesus?

            1. rokonto
              • 5 Years
              11 months, 5 days ago

              Yes... lol...
              That's too hard to call... toss of a coin... I would probs prefer Kane

              1. Gharvey
                • 2 Years
                11 months, 5 days ago

                I’m tempted triple captain Jesus. Huge gamble and differentiator:)

                1. rokonto
                  • 5 Years
                  11 months, 5 days ago

                  You're mad 😀

    2. rokonto
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 3 days ago

      Well? How did it go?

      1. Gharvey
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 3 days ago

        I chickened our and went mane captain. Didn’t work either:) did use Cantwell though:)

  19. BobbyDoesNotLook
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    0.0 itb and considering already upgrading next week my bench of Dendo, Janmaat, Greenwood (and Rico).

    a) Tammy -> Ings (1.7 itb), next week Greenwood -> Mousset (still 1.0 itb)
    b) Tammy -> Jimmy (0.3itb), next week Janmaat -> max 4.6 def

  20. drughi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    KDB or Son in for sterling to raise funds for abraham>Jesus ?

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Raz to KDB is awesome
      Not sure about Jesus though. As AZ mentioned in Scoutcast, it's a future transfer waiting to happen

      1. drughi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        I´m planning on making transfers in the future

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          11 months, 5 days ago

          Go on then

    2. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Son

  21. StayoutheSpiceZone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Sorry if it’s been asked a million times ...

    I bought Tammy for 7.0 and have 0.5m tied up in him.

    Have a 3-5-2 starting xi this week but don’t want to lose too much value. Thoughts appreciated for what to do

    1. drughi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      See it as a positive you brought a player in early and now can sell him for 0.5 more, dont get to attached

    2. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      When he drops tonight selling price will be 7.4, you can afford another drop midweek to allow you assess the situation.

  22. Coys96
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    With Tammy out, what is the best move(s)?

    1. KdB + Abraham -> Tielemans/Zaha + Kane (-4)
    2. Kdb + Abraham -> Pulisic/Moura + G.Jesus/Firmino (-4)
    3. Abraham -> Ings/Bats (free)

  23. Yank Revolution
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Abraham to Jimenez for a -8?? (Ive already done Mount and Dunk out for Son and Kelly)

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Who's on the bench ??
      I rate Jimenez highly tbh

      1. Yank Revolution
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Kelly, Rico, Greenwood

    2. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Would you do it for a -4?

      1. Yank Revolution
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Probably! I think Abe may miss 2 or more games. Also, Im going to lose value on him, starting tonight.

        1. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 11 Years
          11 months, 5 days ago

          Is it really a -8?

          1. Yank Revolution
            • 9 Years
            11 months, 5 days ago

            If they players I bring in perform, certainly not (in reality). But, I usually dont do hit transfers for immediate returns (I take a longer view of them).

  24. Hryszko
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Pick a captain out of these 3...

    Son - Vardy - Mane?

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      I'm going Vardy now

      1. Hryszko
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Can't help but think Mane could run wild!

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Sonny

    3. Hits from the Bong
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Vardy

  25. Rinseboy
    • 8 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Ok to ride out the Tammy exodus?
    Or switch to Ings or Raahford?

    Pope
    TAA Robbo Soy Lunds
    Son Mane Maddison Pulisic
    Vardy Jimi
    Button Cantwell Rico Tammy..

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Roll

  26. RED_ARMY
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    McGinn + Tammy to:
    a) Dele + Ings
    b) Son + Ayew

  27. Hits from the Bong
    • 2 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Pope Button
    TAA Lundstram Soyuncu Rico Kelly
    Sterling Mane Son Mount Dendonker
    Vardy Tammy Jimenez

    A. Mount + Tammy to Pulisic + Ings (-4)
    B. Mount + Tammy to Pulisic + Mousset (-4)
    C. Tammy to Ings
    D. Tammy to Mousset

    1. Ajaxeeding
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      I’m considering a or c. But for me it would be -8 or -4. So I’m leaving towards c for -4.

      1. Hits from the Bong
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Yeah I probably would. I’m leaning towards A, but I won’t be able to buy Tammy back as I got him at 7.2

  28. tiger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Such a bad time for Abraham to be injured...3 good fixtures in the week, and he could miss them all.

    I bought him for £7.4m, reluctant to transfer out now...but Ings looks tempting for his next few fixtures.

    What to do?

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      If you own Che cover then go Ings. If not bring some for next two fixtures.

    2. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Just assess your bench, factor in the user of two free transfers, the opportunity cost and stack this against ings predicted return. Couldn't be simpler!

    3. JustPark
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Please do tell us. Having hard time myself.

      1. tiger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        It's the value lost which is a pain too, because I won't be able to do a straight swap to get Abraham back in. Needs more thinking...

  29. Niho992
    • 2 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Would you sell Abraham for -8 to Ings/Jimenez?

    I have to play Lundstram if i hold Abraham but then i dont have players on the bench...

    1. Citizen Kane
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Same issue mate

      1. Niho992
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Lets do it together haha 😀

  30. Rhodes your boat
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 5 days ago

    Gtg guys? Many thanks!

    Pope
    Taa tomori soy Lund
    Mane(c) kdb son pulisic
    Vardy jimi

    Button dendo rico Abraham*

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 5 days ago

      Do you save transfer or have made ones?

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 5 days ago

        Made transfers for -4