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Will The Jamie Vardy Party Ever End in Fantasy Premier League?

It’s the question we’d all love an answer to. As one of those lucky souls who got Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) in before the ‘Miracle at Saint Mary’s’, I find myself falling deeper and deeper in love with the Leicester City front man every game week. He’s the gift that keeps on giving, and this week he yet again returned a double figure haul with two goals at Villa Park. For owners, the last eight weeks have been like an endless summer holiday from our childhoods, basking in the radiant glow of Vardy’s brilliance in front of goal. But we are haunted by the knowledge that one day, we will wake from our peaceful rest and the holiday will be over. The silent spectre that haunts our Friday evenings and Saturday mornings; will it be this week that Vardy stops scoring?

I’m in two mini leagues, and in both there is an increasing divide between three camps. There are those, like me, who have owned Vardy from early on in his magical spell (Gameweek 9 for me) and continue to stand by him as one of the true heroes of this season, along with Lord John Lundstram (£5.1m), Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.1m) and Teemu Pukki (£6.6m) (Yes, Pukki’s spell between Gameweek 1-5 has earned him a place on my list). Then, there are two other camps; those who have brought him in at some stage after his hat-trick against Southampton because he’s just somebody they feel they need to have in order to not drop points every week, and they’re going to ride this train of form for a little while. And then finally, you have those zealous fanatics who continually refuse to even consider bringing Vardy into their teams. In one of my mini leagues, two out of the nine entrants to the league fall into this category. Unfortunately, I live with one of them. And every day is a fresh back and forth over the Midlands Master that is Jamie Vardy.

‘He’s getting so lucky, he’ll regress so hard soon’ is probably the most common phrase I hear, in fact with the congestion of fixtures over the past week, I’ve probably heard it at least once a day. Okay, so maybe me singing ‘Vardy’s on fire, your defence is terrified’ incessantly is partly to blame. And sticking a life-sized picture of Vardy’s face on the bathroom mirror was asking for some trouble. But I’m top of the league thanks to him, and I know my friend can’t stand it, so I’ve got to milk it, right? Anyway, my childish Fantasy Premier League (FPL) antics aside, it is one of the biggest questions amongst FPL players right now. I hear it uttered quietly in darkened alleyways and quiet corners in pubs, for fears of inciting violent reactions from members of the two extreme camps (There’s a Brexit joke in here somewhere): When will Vardy’s run come to an end? And when it does, will he be able to pick it back up again?

Let’s start with the basics, and look at the man himself. There have been just five Gameweeks this season where Vardy hasn’t bagged a goal (or an attacking return, as he has yet to assist without scoring in the same game). Those games were Wolves (H), Chelsea (A), Manchester United (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), and Liverpool (A). These were in Gameweeks one, two, five, six and eight respectively. On the face of it, it would look like Vardy is a bit of a flat-track-bully, who loves terrorising the aging or inexperienced defences of the lower parts of the league. But Vardy has relished playing against the ‘Big Six’ historically, with him having scored (as of today) a whopping thirty five goals against them. I’ve struggled to get up to date information on other top strikers in the league, but as of January 2019, Aguero had scored 37 goals in 62 games against the big six, and Harry Kane had managed 21 in 41. With Jamie Vardy only having been in the Premier League since the 2014-15 season, we can estimate he’s played somewhere in the region of 65 games against the big six (Based on twelve games a season across the past five seasons and the five so far this season). 35 in 65 isn’t a bad record at all for Vardy, and puts him in the same sort of league as Kane and Aguero. So unless he’s suffering from a case of the yips, I think we shouldn’t be too worried about Gameweek 18 and 19 when he faces Manchester City away and Liverpool at home. Realistically, neither of these two sides currently have a defence which Vardy’s pace and intelligence would struggle to break down a few times in the game anyway. So, Vardy’s blanks aren’t showing a pattern yet, but if he was to blank against City and Liverpool (Which would more than likely be bad news for any non-Liverpool fans), then maybe there would be a case to answer.

So, what about the argument that he’s scored far too many goals so far this season? 16 goals, 16 games is simply a ridiculous record. The most goals in a thirty-eight game Premier League season is 32, held by Mohamed Salah (£12.2m) in 2017-18. Luis Suárez (2013-14) and Robin van Persie (2011-12) have both hit the 30 mark in the past ten years. Surprisingly, Vardy did not win the golden boot when he smashed the Premier League consecutive goals record in Leicester’s title winning year (2015-16), scoring in twelve games consecutively. He finished on 24 goals in 36 appearances. Last season he only managed 18 goals across the 33 games he played. These would all lean towards the probability that Vardy will at some stage regress, and this will be yet another little run of form that he enjoys most seasons. He certainly can’t keep up this sort of pace, or he’d be on for 38 goals for the season! Or can he?

The Jamie Vardy of today is a very different man than the one we saw when Leicester won the league. He’s more mature, with five full seasons in the premier league behind him as opposed to just the one. He has a top-class manager behind him in Brendan Rodgers, as opposed to Claudio Ranieri. Ranieri deserves the utmost respect for pulling off the greatest act the Premier League has ever witnessed in that season, but he’s a manager who has struggled to ever really enjoy continuous success and hasn’t ever lasted more than a handful of seasons at a club. And he arguably has the greatest service that he’s ever enjoyed, coming from a mixture of James Maddison (£7.7m), Youri Tielemans (£6.6m), Ayoze Pérez (£6.2m), and Wilfred Ndidi (£5.0m) in midfield. The service from Ricardo Pereira (£6.5m) and Ben Chilwell (£5.8m) in defence has helped too. Maddison and Tielemans are keys to this, two wonderfully creative and critical players who are the bed rock of the creative set up which has allowed Vardy to simply tap goals in this season. This service and his maturity is exemplified in the statistics, with Vardy’s Shots on Target percentage of 63% being far better than any other season, including his best ever season of 2015/16 when he managed 46% of shots on target. On top of this he’s averaging just 2.56 shots per goal, and of course he’s averaging 90 minutes per goals, having played every minute of Leicester’s premier league campaign this year.

Does this mean he’ll keep up the current rate and go on and whack 38 goals in? No, I’d be very surprised. Does it mean he can go on and potentially beat Salah’s 32? Well, the potential is there. I think those that are saying he’ll regress are probably being stubborn and refusing to admit he’s a quality striker with a hunger for goals. But it is a delicate situation, as I’ve outlined above. If Maddison was to get injured, I would worry for Vardy’s goal rate. Vardy’s minutes played could also catch up with the 32 year old at some stage, and I hope that wouldn’t be in the form of an injury.

I think my point is this – people like to chuck the word ‘regression’ around a lot, and use it quite negatively, especially in this case. They use it to suggest that Jamie Vardy is overperforming, that he shouldn’t be scoring that many goals, that he’s getting lucky. I think this is harsh, and there are actually two facts to consider before deciding if Vardy is, in fact, ‘getting lucky’. For one, Leicester are now the only top tier (Yes, they are) side in the Premier League to play a system with such a lone striker. Sure, Man City and Liverpool both play with just one striker. But Roberto Firmino (£9.4m) plays as a number ten as much as anything else, and has two of the best wingers in the world in Sadio Mané (£12.3m) and Salah to feed and feed off of for goals. Manchester City play with such attacking fluidity that any player out of six starters could score for them on any given day, and that’s not to mention the fact that they have about twelve players who could start for any Premier League clubs in Midfield or Attack. Tammy Abraham (£7.9m) and Chelsea could be considered the only other team in the league to play a lone striker in a vaguely similar way to Leicester. If people try and tell me about Harry Kane (£10.9M), then I would have to direct you to the recent Scoutcast and Joe’s lovely visual of Kane’s heatmap from Gameweek 15. I’ll give you a hint if you haven’t seen it; he seems to like the halfway line.

The second is that defenses just don’t seem to be what they used to be. Liverpool, who had such a fantastic defensive record last season, have just managed their fourth clean sheet of the season against a frankly pathetic Bournemouth showing. While they don’t often concede more than one, its still made games a lot trickier for them and wipes off those clean sheet points. Man City look lost without the guiding light of Aymeric Laporte (£6.3m), although as a Man United fan I’m certainly not complaining. Speaking of United, our £200m+ defence managed to concede two to Aston Villa and three to Sheffield United in recent weeks. Looking around the league, there aren’t many places where Leicester could go to tomorrow and Vardy would think ‘Oh dear, I’m going to struggle here’. Matches are ripe for goals up and down the country, and until one of the wheels comes off the Leicester bus, I’m certainly going to be backing Jamie Vardy.

luketownsend1997 First Season playing FPL seriously, after a very poor attempt last season cost me about £50! Twitter: https://twitter.com/FPLLuke (FPLLuke)

15 Comments Post a Comment
  1. andy85wsm
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    I wonder if your mini-league rivals and house mate will ever come to their senses? 😉

    It doesn't look like the party will stop against Norwich that's for sure.

    1. luketownsend1997
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I really hope they hold off for as long as possible!

      Certainly doesn't, makes the captaincy shout easy for another week... 😉

  2. 3 A
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Love his pace and technique. What a quality player.

    1. andy85wsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      But will the party end? 😉

      1. 3 A
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Hard to predict because its still a long way to gw38.

        If no injury for him and first eleven, he can get more than thirty goals imo.

  3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Didn't know Mr Sutherns was living with you....

  4. columbo
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Went without him until he netted two yet again this weekend. Got him in for a hit as somehow still doing OK but can't go without him! Apologies in advance..!

    1. luketownsend1997
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I'll forgive you, but if the party ends now i'll be blaming you!

  5. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    I am already preparing a statue for Vardy. The man mostly responsible for my inclusion in 10K.

  6. TiAgoFPL
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    One of my rivals got him just before the hat trick (I got him after) and he's now second and I'm 3rd the 1st has him since gw1 as captain .
    I think that without europeu games they wiil be fresh

    1. TiAgoFPL
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      And smashing *

      1. TiAgoFPL
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        We are 15 and he is now owned by +90% of our league

        1. TiAgoFPL
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Correction is now on 100% of our league

  7. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Feel sorry for Norwich, expect another brace
    25 goals in 26 games under Rodgers...

    I do feel he will finally blank at the Etihad

  8. El Lobito 10
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Got him for the hat trick, thank heavens. I hate captaining the boring captain option though. Alas, I shall be captaining the magnificent chav leading the Leicester charge v Norwich.