Spot the Differential

Three FPL differentials who carry points potential over the Christmas period

Whenever we draw closer to the midpoint of a Fantasy Premier League season, a standard template team tends to emerge.

This, in turn, means that it becomes more difficult to make up ground in our mini-leagues and places more importance on having a differential or two in our starting line-ups who can make a considerable impact.

In fact, last Gameweek saw three of the top seven FPL points-scorers of the round having ownership of 5% or less.

Rest assured, there’s still time to find some hidden gems. These players can be key assets, especially during this time of the season when there is a short turnaround time between games.

With that said, here are three low-owned players that may be of interest to you over the next four Gameweeks:

Lucas Moura

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £7.0m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: CHE | BHA | nor | sou

At this moment in time, when it comes to Tottenham Hotspur’s attacking assets from a Fantasy perspective, you will automatically think of Harry Kane (£10.9m), Son Heung-min (£10.1m) and Dele Alli (£8.7m). However, Lucas Moura (£7.0m) is flying under the radar and rivalling that trio for attacking returns.

Under Jose Mourinho he has become revitalised, having scored three goals in his last three Premier League appearances where he has appeared for more than 70 minutes.

Among midfielders priced at £7.0m or less, he is currently ranked joint-third for goals scored, which is all the more remarkable when considering that he has only played three full league matches since August.

While he has become a regular starter of late, it can’t be ignored that he is often substituted, as was the case with his playing time under Mourinho’s predecessor.

But when we quantify Moura’s output we can see that he is averaging an attacking return for every 120 minutes played since August, which is more than respectable for an inexpensive midfielder.

You would expect him to feature in all four matches over the festive period (whether it be from the start or as a substitute), which includes fixtures against teams that have struggled for clean sheets this season.

With Moura’s form, you wouldn’t put it past him to add to his Fantasy returns, even if he’s prone to missing out on bonus points.

Neal Maupay

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: SHU | tot | BOU | CHE

With three goals in his last three games, it’s still somewhat surprising that Neal Maupay (£5.8m) has single-digit ownership levels.

He may not have featured regularly at the start of the season but it’s fair to say that he’s now established himself as Brighton’s main centre-forward.

Seven goals in 17 appearances to date is more than respectable for a player that hadn’t played in the Premier League before August.

His credentials as a budget forward option are also commendable. During the last two Gameweeks, Maupay is ranked second for attempts on goal and joint-second for penalty area touches among forwards priced at £6.0m or less. In fact, he’s had more goal attempts than the likes of Tammy Abraham (£8.0m) and Raul Jimenez (£7.5m) since Gameweek 16.

To add to his viability, three of Brighton’s next four league games will be at home.

The Seagulls’ home record since Gameweek 1 is only 13th-best in the league at the moment, with Graham Potter’s side scoring less than two goals per game at the Amex.

But we shouldn’t read too much into that, as Brighton are, in fact, getting better with their finishing, having scored ten league goals in their last five matches on the south coast.

Maupay presents a very good opportunity to invest in a player that is performing well and doesn’t cost over the odds. He may not score in all of the Seagulls’ festive matches but the chances are that, when Albion do find the back of the net, he will most likely have some sort of involvement.

James Tomkins

  • FPL ownership: 0.5%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW18-21 fixtures: new | WHU | sou | nor

With the exception of a handful of must-haves in FPL this season, consistent returns from defenders have been somewhat lacking since August.

But with four Fantasy returns in his last four games, it’s surprising to think that James Tomkins (£5.0m) is still owned by fewer than 1% of FPL managers.

Tomkins has started every match for Crystal Palace from Gameweek 9 onwards, having missed the start of the season due to injury.

His form is impressive at the moment, with 85% of his points having been scored since Gameweek 14.

Crystal Palace’s next four games will be against teams currently placed in the bottom half of the table, which further enhances their chances of additional clean sheets in the short term.

However, it also remains to be seen whether Crystal Palace can cope over the busy period when stalwarts like Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m) are injured.

Furthermore, the chances are that most seasoned FPL managers have already signed Martin Kelly (£4.4m) at a cheaper price, which makes Tomkins less appealing (and explains his ownership levels). Understandably, many of us will have a limited desire to double up on the Eagles’ defenders, despite their clean sheet potential of late.

But it can be argued that Tomkins offers slightly more.

Kelly has only registered three attacking Fantasy returns since 2016/17, whereas Tomkins has seven goals and two assists to his name during the same period. Maybe he’s due another goal?

In any case, he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as one of the best performing budget defenders in FPL at present.

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1,302 Comments Post a Comment
  1. La Roja
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    I’ve just done Mane Mousset ➡ Kane(c) Grealish -4

    😎

    1. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      merry Xmas

    2. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Two forwards for two CMs? How did you manage that?

      1. La Roja
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        lol

    3. Ole Trafford
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      I’m considering Manè and Jesus to Kdb and Kane -4 myself. Good luck

    4. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      You can argue with fixtures IT could work.

    5. Pompel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Like that, best of luck!

    6. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Just reported this post.

      La Roja must have been hacked...

      😉

  2. FirMinaMiMo
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Lads 🙂
    New vs cry ...score predictions !!!!!

    Considering:- shelvey probably ll play

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Draw - 0-0 or 1-1

      1. FirMinaMiMo
        2 months, 7 days ago

        So shall i start
        A)) kelly (having guita)
        B)) cantwell

    2. BenjoBD
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      0-0 or 1-0 either way.

    3. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      No chance of a Palace CS...

    4. Zlatanzo
      2 months, 7 days ago

      1-2

  3. BenjoBD
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Do we expect a sub 50points average gw?

    If so is it time to captain a diff or less likely candidate like lund or Grealish!

    1. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Overall, yes.

    2. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      I expect 75 pts

      1. Trophé Mourinho
        2 months, 7 days ago

        what rank you on now?

        1. Christina.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          high enough

        2. BenjoBD
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 7 days ago

          200k have son, alli, rash, kdb, all the obvious picks. I'm in that period of becoming an also ran or nudging into top 100k. Tough decisions to make.

          1. Tamagotchi Massacre
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            That period can be as late as the last few games

            1. BenjoBD
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Maybe. hence the odd diff risk to make any difference. I'm only 64 points off top 10k so I still reckon I can make top 100k with any luck.

      2. BenjoBD
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Good luck.

  4. Playing_the_Numbers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Maguire or Doherty for a one game punt?

    1. I Member
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Doherty

  5. Tsparkes10
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    What to do LADS? 2FT 0.5itb

    Hendo
    Perreira Rico Lund
    KDB Mount Son Alli
    Vardy Mousset Connolly
    (Martin, Kelly TAA, Mane)

    A) Mount to grealish/james
    B) TAA, Mount, Connolly to Aurier, Grealish, Jota
    C) TAA, Connolly to Aurier, Jimenez

    Leaning towards B as obvs gives me best bench cover if some players don't play, got a feeling Mount is rested. May go James over grealish though?

    1. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      dont take hit

      1. Tsparkes10
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Surely it pays off though? TAA doesn't play and Mount may not also. Connolly just back from injury aswell and plays us 🙂

        1. Christina.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          nothing for sure in fpl. player starts with -4
          I cant see many CS for starters

          1. Tsparkes10
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 7 days ago

            True but bringing in 2 attackers. Hmmm

  6. Christina.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    are these Q's for real?
    lol

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Help above? 🙂 struggling

  7. Manani
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    is Connolly likely to play? got him as my 8th attacker, with Mane not playing might have to rely on him this week

  8. Herman Toothrot
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    How come so many people are selling Mane? I know he had a blank but surely you have somebody on the bench to take his place?

    Traore for me currently

    1. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      People want to cash out, get a Spud, then get Salah.

    2. I Member
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      I'm benching him but can understand why people are selling. Tough fixtures until GW25. Spurs and City mids can outscore him over that period.

    3. Tsparkes10
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Traore may not play

    4. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Mane is past it and Salah is the new essential. Get with the times gramps

  9. Gaddafi
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Wildcard team... Gtg??

    Ryan
    Rico, Aurier, Lundstram
    De Bruyne, Richarlison(V), Son, Alli
    Ings, Rashford(C), Vardy

    Bench: Button, Kelly, Dendoncker, Van Dijk

    1. Herman Toothrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Tjays my team minus Rich and Ings.

      I like.

    2. clempro
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Van Dijk really? No funds for Robbo/TAA?
      Otherwise similar to my WC, so looks good XD

    3. Jafoole_88
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      No Salah or Mane

  10. Ole Trafford
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Manè and Jesus to Kdb and Kane -4 worth it?

  11. OldBenKenobi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    GTG?

    Pope
    Femenia Rico Lundstram
    Son(v) KDB(c) Alli Mount
    Vardy Jimenez Mousset

    Henderson Dendoncker TAA Robertson

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Not great. No FTs?

  12. Hits from the Bong
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Who scores more this week?
    1. KDB + Ings
    2. Alli + Rashford

    1. OldBenKenobi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      2

  13. The Red Devil
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    A) Trent and Maddison to
    Aurier & Alli
    B) Tammy & Maddison to
    Rashford & grealish
    C) Trent and Tammy to
    Aurier & Kane

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Not fancy a punt on Dan James or Jota?

  14. Riggs
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    What do you think about Son IN - Mane OUT?
    And I can possible make second transfer Grealish IN - Maddison OUT for - 4?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Do the first one. Lots of people are.

  15. Zlatanzo
    2 months, 7 days ago

    TAA + Hayden --> 6.0 defender + Traore... Y/N? If Yes then which defender

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Traore might be injured.

      1. Zlatanzo
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Ahhh yup just seen it, cheers

  16. davidpaulaitken
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Why is no one picking ramsdale with their wild cards - go run of fixtures and cheap ?

    1. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Rico, not a great team to double up on.

      1. Deulofail
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Classic case of Irrational Mental Blockage, then. 😉

    2. Teomi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Everyone already got Rico as bou def asset

  17. andres
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    What villa defender is worth getting?

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      None

    2. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      zero

    3. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Guilbert and Targett both look a point for the next couple of games is you think getting a villa defender works for you

      I went for targett

      1. Tamagotchi Massacre
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        *punt, great Freudian slip

    4. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      The professionals fancy Targett.

    5. lindeg
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      targett if any, but i think he will be rotated with taylor during christmas

  18. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Do these injuries affect captain choices for you?
    A. Godfrey/Traore out (Jimenez)
    B. Dilva out (Kdb)

    1. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      A nearly, but outweighed by B!

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Too much information.
      A. Wolves could go back to 2 top, Godfrey a big miss for Nor.
      B. Maybe, but Leicester not Arsenal.

  19. Tsparkes10
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Thoughts on Dan James and Jota as punts?

    1. lindeg
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      decent punts

    2. tab.hashimi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      might be bringing in Jota as captain this week. This is the week to gamble i reckon

    3. claretparrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Seriously toyed with James myself, ended up going Grealish but don't think it's a bad move

  20. Sid07
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Suggestions please
    1) ings to rash
    2) Abraham to rash
    3) ings + mane to rash + son (-4)
    4) Abraham + mane to rash + son(-4)

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      4

  21. shearer9
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Other than Traore, who would you gamble on for 5.5?

    1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Shelvey, El Ghazi, Moutinho

    2. Deulofail
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Saka, Smith Rowe, Torreira, Willock

    3. Jafoole_88
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Aaron Mooy

  22. Daniel Son
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Anyone here captaining KDB and also forced to play Soyuncu?

    1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Not putting captaincy but I'm forced to play double LEI

      1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Pulisic vs Aurier
        Maupay vs Stevens
        Kevin vs Pereira/Soyuncu

        Thats my team for this week

    2. manu4life99
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      I'm captaining MDB (see below)

  23. Mortal.Swinbat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Anyone fancy James over Grealish? It sure if I trust Villa to score even if Grealish is more involved

    1. Zlatanzo
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Don't fancy James for fpl

  24. jdp219
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    I think maybe I may have narrowed it down...maybe? 2FTs, 0.3itb
    1) Tiel > Grealish/Zaha & roll
    2) Tielemans, TAA > Son, 3.9
    3) Jim, Tiel, TAA > Rashford(c), Grealish, Kelly (-4)
    4) Other?

    Pope
    Rico, Aurier, Lundstram
    KDB, Alli, Tielemans, Cantwell
    Vardy, Jimenez, Tammy
    (Button; Mane, TAA, Soyuncu)

    1. Zlatanzo
      2 months, 7 days ago

      1 for me

      1. jdp219
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        cheers!

  25. Zlatanzo
    2 months, 7 days ago

    If you had 2 FTs would you be getting rid of TAA? If so for who?

    Defence looks like this:
    TAA Soy Aurier Rico Lundy

    1. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      you have 4 playing def's
      so no

    2. jdp219
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Exact defense here. See right above for what I'm considering. It's a mixed bag, though.

    3. ONGO GABLOGIAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      I've got Chilwell Aurier Kelly and Lund and i'm getting rid of TAA.

      Are you confident of him getting points over the next 5-6 gameweeks? i'm not, so i'm upgrading mount instead 🙂

  26. manu4life99
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Bench 1

    Tammy (tot)
    Maddison (mci)

    Current team:

    Heaton
    Lund Aurier Kelly
    KDB(C) Son(vc) Grealish Alli
    Vardy Jiminez Tammy

    Hend Maddison Soy TAA

    1. ONGO GABLOGIAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      tammy

  27. DAZZ
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    After tinkering all week with my WC. I’d like some final thoughts please. It is designed to bring Salah back after the blank and the Leicester game. I’ll also make room for TAA.

    Guaita
    Aurier Lundstram Willems
    KDB Son Alli Richarlison Grealish
    Vardy Rashford
    (Button, Rico, Kelly, Greenwood)
    4.6ITB

    1. ONGO GABLOGIAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      no issues

    2. Jullepuu
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Could be better to have Tammy over Richarlison (3-4-3 then). Also Salah or Mane could be rotated against Wolves. Many alternatives for that Willems spot but not much in it. Great team imo!

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Good team but you would expect me to say that given almost identical to mine! What’s your plan to get TAA out of interest as I plan Richarlison to Salah after Leicester game and looking at how might also get TAA

  28. ONGO GABLOGIAN
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Still can't decide..

    A) Richarlison
    B) Martial
    C) Dele

    1. DAZZ
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      If money no issue long term probably C, a 2 week punt A

      1. ONGO GABLOGIAN
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        I already have Son. Richarlison is the more exciting pick for me

  29. Ole Trafford
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Score predictions for city v leicester

    1. ONGO GABLOGIAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      2-1 City

    2. jdp219
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      2-1. Could go either way.

    3. Manani
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      1-0

  30. Manani
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Maddison > Grealish
    or
    Soyu > Aurier