Spot the Differential

Doherty hinting at return to incredible debut season form

Differentials had a lot of success once again in Gameweek 21, so Fantasy Premier League managers need to keep an eye out for these sorts of options.

Of the eleven players who scored over 10 points last time out, seven had ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m), Gerard Deulofeu (£6.1m) and César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

In his last Spot the Differential article, FPL Hints suggested James Tomkins (£5.0m) was due another goal, and right on cue, he delivered in Gameweek 20, heading Luka Milivojevic’s (£6.7m) delivery into the net via the underside of the crossbar.

I’ve had a bit of success picking out differentials this season too, including Jack Grealish (£6.4m) back in October, and more recently Ismaïla Sarr (£6.2m).

Let’s see if I can follow it up, so here are three low-owned picks worth considering for Gameweek 22 and beyond.

Matt Doherty

FPL ownership: 4.9%

Price: £6.1m

GW22-26 fixtures: NEW | sou | LIV | mun | LEI

Matt Doherty (£6.1m), is a player I’ve liked as a differential for quite some time.

Having tipped him on the Scoutcast back in November, and here, the Irishman has since returned in three of Wolverhampton Wanderers last four home games, including one double-digit haul.

In fact, out of the 10 league games he’s played at Molineux this season, he’s provided returns in six of them.

Whilst Wolves have suffered back-to-back league defeats, they head into Gameweek 22 level on points with sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur and only a point behind Manchester United, who they restricted to no shots on target in last weekend’s FA Cup goalless draw.

The underlying stats further highlight Doherty’s appeal.

He’s taken more shots (seven) and importantly, more shots in the box (seven) than any other defender over the last four Gameweeks, whilst his four Big Chances over the same period is bettered by only Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) and Sadio Mané (£12.3m).

Up next for Wolves is Newcastle United, who have a poor defensive record on the road, conceding 21 away goals, second only to Aston Villa’s 23.

In terms of their attack, their forwards have just three goals between them this season, and are often having to rely on their defenders to bail them out.

This is a team low on confidence, with the lowest possession figure in the league, who have lost their last three league games.

Doherty can take advantage of those weaknesses, and could be a nice differential going forward.

Pablo Fornals

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Price: £6.0m

GW22-26 fixtures: shu | EVE | lei + LIV | BHA | mci

After a difficult start, Pablo Fornals (£6.0m) has been one of West Ham United’s best players in recent weeks.

Slowly but surely, the Spanish midfielder is beginning to show the level of performance many fans expected, delivering one goal and three assists in his last seven games.

Looking at data from the last two Gameweeks, only five midfielders have taken more shots in the box, which suggests further returns could be on the way.

The question is, can we trust the Hammers?

Generally, they have not been great in attack, and have struggled defensively this season, but David Moyes has been hired to try and fix these issues, and early signs are fairly positive after back to back wins over Bournemouth and Gillingham.

The real appeal, however, lies in their forthcoming Double Gameweek.

Taking their Gameweek 24 fixtures in isolation (lei, LIV), West Ham assets don’t look too appealing, but with home ties against Everton and Brighton & Hove Albion positioned either side, Fornals could be an intriguing option.

Available for just £6.0m, Fornals is coming into form at just the right time, and could be an effective differential for the crucial Double Gameweek.

Sead Kolašinac

FPL ownership: 0.6%

Price: £5.2m

GW22-26 fixtures: cry | SHU | che | bur | NEW

It is less than three weeks since Mikel Arteta took over at Arsenal but we are already starting to see clear patterns of play.

On paper, Arsenal are using a 4-2-3-1, but in reality, it’s a 4-4-2 without the ball, transitioning into a 2-3-5 in possession.

The approach against Manchester United involved Sead Kolašinac (£5.2m) pushing forward on the overlap to become a fifth forward, with opposite full-back, Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m) performing a more traditional full-back role.

Kolašinac looked dangerous throughout, with his deflected cross finding Nicolas Pépé (£9.1m) for the opener, whilst continually providing an attacking outlet on the left.

The Bosnian sits somewhere between a full-back and a winger, who can sometimes be a liability defensively, so this overlapping role suits him well.

Defensively, Arsenal are still a work in progress, putting up mid-table expected numbers, but it’s worth noting only Liverpool, Southampton and Watford have conceded fewer goals since the change of manager.

Their opponents this week, Crystal Palace, look vulnerable.

Their 19 goals scored is the second-fewest in the top flight, with their attack, outside of Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m), lacking imagination.

Add to that an injury crisis, with captain Milivojević also suspended, and Kolašinac looks an ideal gamble for Gameweek 22, and possibly beyond.

1,047 Comments Post a Comment
  1. mcginnntonic
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    rashford and soyuncu -> ings and robbo

    or

    abraham and saiss -> ings and gomez

    cheers

    1. Maddamotha
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I wouldnt to either of them this gw

    2. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Wouldn’t do any of those moves this week - all 4 could do better than Ings & Robbo/Gomez.

      After this week I’d probably do the second. Rash still looks dangerous. Also consider DCL if it helps you get Robbo.

  2. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    A. Martial
    B. Alli
    C. Maddison
    D. Moura
    E. Richarlison

    1. Maddamotha
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      ?

  3. Daghe Munegu
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Pope

    TAA Robbo Aurier Rico Reid

    Best replacement for Aurier up to 5.5M ?

    A: Lundstram
    B: Soy/ Evans
    C: Sidibé:Holgate
    D: Kola
    E: Mendy

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Kola if you're feeling punty.

  4. Le Bluff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    https://twitter.com/LCFC/status/1215598768055377921

    Is that Maddison in the beanie applauding Vardy? Would indicate he's in full training.

    1. Maddamotha
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      He is fine mate. Looked at his insta as well, he looks fine. The incident didnt look that bad either. Would be surprised he is ruled out because of that.

  5. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What to do with this squad change things or leave it as it is?

    Ryan
    Hanley Lundstram VVD
    KdB ManeTrossard Willian
    Aguero (©) Ayew Vardy (VC)

    Subs:Button,Aurier, Dendonker & Willems

    2 FT any chance input is welcomed

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Aurier to Holgate?

  6. beetlejuice
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Cenk Tosun on loan to Palace

    1. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not even sure he's better than Ayew.

    2. applebonkers
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      someone has just said benteke to villa now which makes a lot of sense. would be interesting in tosun at probably any other team than palace, not sure he's quite as prolific as batshuayi who did make that same move work somewhat

      1. applebonkers
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        *interested in tosun

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Started pretty well under Fat Sam, but a deffo wait and see.

  7. theswallow1965
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    On W/C, dilemma.....
    Which do you prefer LONG TERM?

    A- TAA / ROBBO / MANE/ SON
    B- TAA / HANLEY / MANE / SALAH

    CHEERS

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

      1. theswallow1965
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah that’s what I’m on currently, just wondered if it was worth getting a fodder defender at the expense of Robbo to get Salah in.
        Cheers

        1. Fulchester's New Centr…
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          If Hanley buried 3rd on bench then a maybe, but Son up front could be huge.

          1. theswallow1965
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Yeah he would be permasub but I think I’ll go with Son option and keep Robbo.
            Cheers

  8. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Going to move Alli on.

    Best replacement? (2ft but want to roll one)

    Martial
    Son
    Maddison
    Moura
    Richarlison

    Ramsdale
    TAA Soyuncu Lund
    Salah Grealish Alli KDB
    Vardy Abraham Jimenez

    Gomez Kelly Romeu

    1. theswallow1965
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I’m on Son but Richarlison fixtures look great.

    2. Mr_Majestyk
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'm in a similar position looking to move Alli to a punt for 1or 2 weeks

      1.City mid Mahrez, Silva
      2. Sarr
      3. Maddison

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Why would you swap Alli to Moura? Maddi as he seems to be fit or Dilva if you don't mind playing Pep roulette.

  9. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Start cantwell or grealish?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      The brunette

  10. KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Play Rico or,
    Kiko > sidibe/Robertson / Doherty (-4) ?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Rico

  11. Arse Craic
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m) is food for thought

    1. applebonkers
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      do like him. did notice bellerin in training pics which isn't ideal but for that price why not, just bench/sell if and when bellerin gets his place back

    2. The_Fish
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Is he nailed? I've completely ignored Arsenal this season. Couldn't tell you who plays other than Leno and Auba.

    3. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Prefer Kolasinac

    4. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not nailed and poor defensive team... no thanks.

  12. The Ejiptian King
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Good article, Tom. I hope Doherty gives me a goodbye haul this weekend, gonna miss owning him, so much fun.

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Too far ahead of the game Ed

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks, can't believe I haven't owned him yet this season, been banging on about him for a while now.

      1. Mingo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        He's the same as Jimenez for me. Players that I definitely want but the stars haven't aligned correctly and neither have been in my team for the duration of the season. He's not had the stellar season of last year but still a great option.

  13. andres
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Hedno
    Sidibe TAA Soy
    Kdb Alli Salah Traore
    Rash Vardy Ings

    Cantwell, Lund, Kelly 2.5, 1FT

    A rash, alli => dcl, mane (-4)
    B do it for free next week, and play Lund ahead of Alli?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Easy B

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Play Lund

  14. Captain_Shirokov
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    A) Alli(LIV) to Grealish(MCI)
    or
    B) Burn ft

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Must be something else

  15. vityovics
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Chances of Otamendi starts?

  16. The Tinkerman
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Injuries to Maddison and Maguire, plus LLoris close to a return. What would you prioritise here (1FT)?

    Gazzaniga
    TAA, Soyuncu, !Maguire!
    Martial, KDB, !Maddison!, Lucas
    Vardy, Jiminez, DCL

    Button; Kelly, Dendo, 3.9

    I was thinking Lucas>Mane in prep for DGW. If I get 2 more games out of Gaz i'd be delighted. Thinking along the lines of:
    Gazzaniga, Maguire, Lucas > Alisson, 5.0, Mane with my 3FT before the DGW.

    Repost, first on an old article by mistake

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maguire - https://twitter.com/FFScout/status/1215576237432807424?s=19

      Maddison - Wait for presser at 1:30pm

      Ask again in an hour or so

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Madds seems fine too - training anyway.

    3. Ross Geller
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Answered on previous article...
      Maguire -> Holgate and then try to squeeze Mane and Salah in for Lucas and Martial. I know you’ll need to downgrade so somewhere to get the cash.
      If it’s impossible to do, then i would prefer to do Gazza -> McCarthy/Ryan and Maguire & Lucas -> Robertson & Salah/Mane

  17. Surfeit of Lampteys
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    I tell you what, with Kane out, having your choice of pretty much every striker available is actually just really annoying. I've got a shortlist of ten I think. Might just have to go random picker online. Proper selection headache.

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Tosun

      1. Surfeit of Lampteys
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Wasn't on the shortlist but yeah maybe he's in with a shout now.

    2. Do I Not Like Orange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I think it's a Godsend for fitting Salah, Mane & KDB in with minimal upheaval. Vardy, Ings & Jimenez are more or less set & forget for me now, don't think any of the other premiums offer enough for the added outlay (though Kun could conceivably change that in the coming weeks).

      1. Surfeit of Lampteys
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah could go Salah instead. Not convinced he's worth his price though.

        1. Do I Not Like Orange
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Have to spend the money somewhere. I was gonna hold off til the double but think Milner's injury & Salah nailed on pens adds value to him.

  18. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Is Alli worth replacing, if the replacement MID is for a -4?

    I'm not sure, providing I'll probably get Mané in for that spot later.

    1. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not worth a -4

      1. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        What if it is straight to Salah?

  19. Le Bluff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Good article.

    Always liked Kolasinac as an FPL asset. If Arsenal can sort out their defence even slightly then I think he's a good option.

    1. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks, yeah I can see one or two assists from him over the next few weeks.

  20. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Heaton, Kane and Alli to Fabianski, Wilson and Sterling (C) for -4 ?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      You seem to have accidentally put Wilson in there.

  21. aborg
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone agrees with me that Southampton are fresher then Leicester and that Southampton will not want to get humiliated again and will do everything they can to keep a clean sheet and try to take some sort of revenge?
    I am doubtful of Vardy’s chances.

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'm pretty sure that they didn't want to get mullered last time either, but freshness and improved form definite yeses.

  22. Joss Ackland’s Spunky…
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    who to captain?

    1 sterling/kdb
    2 Rashford
    3 Vardy

    If i knew Sterling was starting i'd probably go with him.

    On Rash currently

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      3-5-2 Raheem to be rested (source: a rumour I just made up).

      Rash?

  23. PapaWengzz
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Surprised to see Martial at just 2.6% in the Captaincy Poll. Probably the best week to captain him

    1. Niho992
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'm more suprised with Sterling/Aguero votes.

      1. PapaWengzz
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Lundstram too

  24. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Looking to downsize.

    Aurier to holgate safe enough?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Safe

  25. Captain_Shirokov
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Henderson
    TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram
    Mane, De Bruyne, Maddison, Alli
    Vardy, Tammy, Jimenez

    (Rico, Cathcart, Dendoncker)

    2 free transfers.

    A) Alli(LIV) to Grealish(MCI)
    or
    B) Burn ft

    I already (accidentally) burned a ft last week. Please tell me I don't have to do it again.

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      See what you mean.
      Alli to any punt or Donker down to Hayden? Hendo out?

  26. danlynch13
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Vardy or KDB for captain any thoughts?

    1. danishdynamite
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Depends on your rank, IMHO.

      if you're having around the 4-500k mark then perhaps it's time to look for a wee bit of a diff, which KDB will be this week. or Martial (not sure i dare do it though)

      1. danishdynamite
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        *hovering

      2. PapaWengzz
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        70K and I'm going Martial. Can see it being a high scoring game

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Vardy [+] consistent points so far before his few absences [-] SOU improve in defence; KDB [+] AVL bad in defending [-] Pep could do Pep

      1. PapaWengzz
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thoughts on martial?

        1. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Got him and may capt him

          1. PapaWengzz
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Same

  27. sneif4
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Start Soy (SOU) or Holgate (BHA) this week?

    1. aborg
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      It depends if you think Ings will score or not this time !

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Mason

  28. danishdynamite
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Rank is steadily falling, so it's that time of the year where I look for diffs. I was all set on Kelly > Kola, then along came this article

    With my current team, playing Kola would probably be at the expense of playing Maupay away to Everton

    Is 'swapping' one diff for another in my XI a wee bit self-defeating ? If so, who else should park their arse on my bench ?

    pope
    TAA / Soy / Lund / Kola
    Salah / Mane / KDB / Martial
    Vardy / Ings
    Maupay / Rico / Mooy

    1. PapaWengzz
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Tough one. I'd start Kola. Arsenal 2 cleanies on the bounce and Kola could easily get an attacking return. Everton quite solid at the back, would not be surprised to see a 1-0 win for them

    2. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No I dont think so, nice set up for this week. GL.

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Looks great Chrissie

    4. danishdynamite
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks chaps

  29. Purefection
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Guita
    TAA Lundy Soy
    Martial Alli KDB Maddison
    Abraham Rash Vardy

    Button Kelly Rico Dendoncker

    Who should I change? Or should I use a wildcard?

    1. JoeSoap
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maybe Ali/Rash to Ings and either Mane/Salah after this week. No need to WC.

  30. Goobo
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Why is David silva the hot pic of the week? I know he's good but yeah

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Good point 4.5% ownership

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      It's the new hair

    3. applebonkers
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      averaging 5.9ppg in starts so if you predict those starts he's interesting. do think he'll be rusty though and city have 2 league games in 3 days coming up so not sure it's worth the hassle for that price (1 week pre wildcard punt, maybe, although prefer mahrez there as he isn't rusty)

      1. applebonkers
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        *2 league games in 4 days

      2. Goobo
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah kinda agree when there's such a splendid amount on offer in midfield too. If you have maddison and martial etc you wouldn't want three at that price point as no big hitters