Spot the Differential

Doherty hinting at return to incredible debut season form

Differentials had a lot of success once again in Gameweek 21, so Fantasy Premier League managers need to keep an eye out for these sorts of options.

Of the eleven players who scored over 10 points last time out, seven had ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m), Gerard Deulofeu (£6.1m) and César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

In his last Spot the Differential article, FPL Hints suggested James Tomkins (£5.0m) was due another goal, and right on cue, he delivered in Gameweek 20, heading Luka Milivojevic’s (£6.7m) delivery into the net via the underside of the crossbar.

I’ve had a bit of success picking out differentials this season too, including Jack Grealish (£6.4m) back in October, and more recently Ismaïla Sarr (£6.2m).

Let’s see if I can follow it up, so here are three low-owned picks worth considering for Gameweek 22 and beyond.

Matt Doherty

FPL ownership: 4.9%

Price: £6.1m

GW22-26 fixtures: NEW | sou | LIV | mun | LEI

Matt Doherty (£6.1m), is a player I’ve liked as a differential for quite some time.

Having tipped him on the Scoutcast back in November, and here, the Irishman has since returned in three of Wolverhampton Wanderers last four home games, including one double-digit haul.

In fact, out of the 10 league games he’s played at Molineux this season, he’s provided returns in six of them.

Whilst Wolves have suffered back-to-back league defeats, they head into Gameweek 22 level on points with sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur and only a point behind Manchester United, who they restricted to no shots on target in last weekend’s FA Cup goalless draw.

The underlying stats further highlight Doherty’s appeal.

He’s taken more shots (seven) and importantly, more shots in the box (seven) than any other defender over the last four Gameweeks, whilst his four Big Chances over the same period is bettered by only Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) and Sadio Mané (£12.3m).

Up next for Wolves is Newcastle United, who have a poor defensive record on the road, conceding 21 away goals, second only to Aston Villa’s 23.

In terms of their attack, their forwards have just three goals between them this season, and are often having to rely on their defenders to bail them out.

This is a team low on confidence, with the lowest possession figure in the league, who have lost their last three league games.

Doherty can take advantage of those weaknesses, and could be a nice differential going forward.

Pablo Fornals

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Price: £6.0m

GW22-26 fixtures: shu | EVE | lei + LIV | BHA | mci

After a difficult start, Pablo Fornals (£6.0m) has been one of West Ham United’s best players in recent weeks.

Slowly but surely, the Spanish midfielder is beginning to show the level of performance many fans expected, delivering one goal and three assists in his last seven games.

Looking at data from the last two Gameweeks, only five midfielders have taken more shots in the box, which suggests further returns could be on the way.

The question is, can we trust the Hammers?

Generally, they have not been great in attack, and have struggled defensively this season, but David Moyes has been hired to try and fix these issues, and early signs are fairly positive after back to back wins over Bournemouth and Gillingham.

The real appeal, however, lies in their forthcoming Double Gameweek.

Taking their Gameweek 24 fixtures in isolation (lei, LIV), West Ham assets don’t look too appealing, but with home ties against Everton and Brighton & Hove Albion positioned either side, Fornals could be an intriguing option.

Available for just £6.0m, Fornals is coming into form at just the right time, and could be an effective differential for the crucial Double Gameweek.

Sead Kolašinac

FPL ownership: 0.6%

Price: £5.2m

GW22-26 fixtures: cry | SHU | che | bur | NEW

It is less than three weeks since Mikel Arteta took over at Arsenal but we are already starting to see clear patterns of play.

On paper, Arsenal are using a 4-2-3-1, but in reality, it’s a 4-4-2 without the ball, transitioning into a 2-3-5 in possession.

The approach against Manchester United involved Sead Kolašinac (£5.2m) pushing forward on the overlap to become a fifth forward, with opposite full-back, Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m) performing a more traditional full-back role.

Kolašinac looked dangerous throughout, with his deflected cross finding Nicolas Pépé (£9.1m) for the opener, whilst continually providing an attacking outlet on the left.

The Bosnian sits somewhere between a full-back and a winger, who can sometimes be a liability defensively, so this overlapping role suits him well.

Defensively, Arsenal are still a work in progress, putting up mid-table expected numbers, but it’s worth noting only Liverpool, Southampton and Watford have conceded fewer goals since the change of manager.

Their opponents this week, Crystal Palace, look vulnerable.

Their 19 goals scored is the second-fewest in the top flight, with their attack, outside of Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m), lacking imagination.

Add to that an injury crisis, with captain Milivojević also suspended, and Kolašinac looks an ideal gamble for Gameweek 22, and possibly beyond.

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1,047 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Abra Dubravka
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 17 days ago

    Have to bench 1 of my front 7... ?

    A) Ings
    B) Maddison
    C) Traore
    D) Mane
    E) Jimenez
    F) Vardy
    G) KDB ?

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Traore

    2. Cricket_Badger
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Djimi Traore

    3. antis0cial
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      That's tough, Traore probably

    4. J ⚒ Gimme your Mané…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Maddison

    5. Devo-McDuff
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Blimey! Who you playing in defence?!

      1. Abra Dubravka
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 17 days ago

        TAA, Lund and Gomez (or Aurier).

        1. Devo-McDuff
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Then why do you have to have to bench a mid/fwd?

          1. Abra Dubravka
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Sorry. I missed another attacker off that list that was yet to be made - still torn between Mahrez/Dilva and Martial as the final attacker.
            Alternatively, save the transfer and just bench Alli. And then play all of the above. Cheers.

  2. Berbinho's Forehead
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 17 days ago

    Best 2 week mid up to 9m?

    1. iL PiStOlErO
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Martial or maybe City boys Dilva/Mahrez

      • The 12th Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        I was considering Maddison > Mahrez for 2 weeks then onto Mane.
        Will probably hold Maddison and the transfer now that the news is positive.

      • Christina.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        mahrez?

      • J ⚒ Gimme your Mané…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Dilva

    2. iL PiStOlErO
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Who to cpt???

        Kevin

        Rash

        Party

        1. Cricket_Badger
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          KDB and hope he plays out of the centre circle, as others have put it.

        2. antis0cial
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Similar question below, really not sure. I'd usually say KDB but he's played rather defensive last couple of games.

      • afsr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Guaita
        Soy, TAA, Sidibe
        Mane, Martial, KdB (VC), Grealish, Maddison
        Vardy, Rashford (C)

        Button, Lund, Greenwood, Rico
        0FT

        G2G? Correct bench order?

        1. iL PiStOlErO
            1 month, 17 days ago

            G2G’ maybe consider playing Lund

          • antis0cial
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            I'd play Lund over Soy or Grealish

            1. J ⚒ Gimme your Mané…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              This

        2. antis0cial
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Cpt... who out of the three below?

          a) Salah
          b) KDB
          c) Vardy

          Currently on Salah C and KDB vc

          1. iL PiStOlErO
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Kevin

            • Zlatanzo
                1 month, 17 days ago

                C of those

            • BigPointDipper
                1 month, 17 days ago

                What ya recon?

                A) Mahrez to DSilva
                B) Get rid of Ali and keep Mahrez

                1. antis0cial
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  B

                2. J ⚒ Gimme your Mané…
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  B

              • Reinhold
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Considering Wolves' midweek fixture away to United, what chances in % would you give the following of starting this GW?

                A) Doherty
                B) Kolasinac

              • J ⚒ Gimme your Mané…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Salah captain it is for me.

                Think he’s going to tear Spurs apart!

                1. Zico Senna
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  If no Salah would you go mane (c)?

                  1. Zico Senna
                    • 8 Years
                    1 month, 17 days ago

                    Racking my brains it’s KDB or Mane for me can’t decide

                    1. Cricket_Badger
                      • 7 Years
                      1 month, 17 days ago

                      KDB or Salah for me.

                      Feel like captaincy could go really well or really badly this week

                      1. Zico Senna
                        • 8 Years
                        1 month, 17 days ago

                        Yeah they’re the 2 best choices i reckon. I think i’ll go with Mane

              • Charlie's Eagles
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Start Grealish or Tomori??

                1. J ⚒ Gimme your Mané…
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Grealish lol

              • damiang2233
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Any update on Madisson Injury?

                1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Fit

                2. aapoman
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Fit

              • aapoman
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                2ft and 0.6 itb. Any tips on what to do?

                Pope 4.0
                Aurier Soy Lundstram Guilbert Kelly
                Mane KDB Alli Richarlison Maddison
                Vardy Rashford Greenwood

              • Cricket_Badger
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                BR on JM: "He’s ok. He had a couple of tests but he’s trained the last couple of days."

                Still reason to doubt Maddison starting?

                1. Zico Senna
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 17 days ago

                  Nah he’ll start

              • Cricket_Badger
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Bench order correct?

                Cathcart - Rico - Dendoncker