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The case for Firmino in a Liverpool triple-up for Double Gameweek 24

Fantasy Premier League managers should consider Roberto Firmino (£9.3m) as Double Gameweek 24 edges closer.

That’s when Liverpool play two fixtures in one Gameweek, travelling to Wolves and West Ham in the space of six days – and many of us are still working out which type of triple-up to invest in.

Going into Gameweek 23, the worldwide ownership figures tell us that the offensive and defensive double-ups are likely to be given equal consideration at this stage:

  • Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m): 40.1%
  • Sadio Mané (£12.4m): 40.0%
  • Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m): 38.8%
  • Mohamed Salah (£12.3m): 25.4%
  • Andrew Robertson (£7.0m): 19.6%

The two prevailing options in the FPL community thus far are a Mané/Salah double-up or one involving both Alexander-Arnold and Robertson.

However, sitting at just 9.6% ownership, Firmino should not be overlooked as an alternative route into a Liverpool triple-up.

In this article, we are going to analyse the Brazilian’s underlying data from recent matches and compare him against other Liverpool options.

As this uses data from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area, only those with Membership can access it in full.

Do Liverpool’s fixtures warrant an attacking double-up?

Before comparing Liverpool’s attacking assets, it seems wise to examine the defensive data of their Double Gameweek opponents, if nothing else, to check that they are as brittle at the back as we need them to be.

As both Wolves and West Ham will be playing at home in Double Gameweek 24, we have assessed them over their last four matches played in front of their own fans.

Last four home matches

As you can see, we get quite mixed results from the two teams.

West Ham look considerably more vulnerable to Liverpool’s attack as they have conceded 30 shots in the box over their last four at home, only five sides shipping more efforts there.

However, by comparison, Wolves have allowed just 18 shots in their home penalty box over the same period, one fewer than Liverpool and bettered only Sheffield United (16) and Manchester United (13).

Last four home matches

When it comes to the quality of chances being given up by either defence, the gap is even bigger.

As you can see, only Aston Villa (17) have conceded more big chances in their last four at home than West Ham (13).

As for Wolves, their five big chances conceded is the third-best in the league and bettered only by Southampton (three) and Manchester United (two).

However, the expected data for Wolves’ last four home matches shows they should have conceded 3.12 goals but, let in five. Across the whole season, their expected goals conceded (xGC) figure sits at 25.31 but Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have actually let in 28.

That may be why Wolves have only kept two clean sheets from a possible 11 at Molineux.

This data seems to be consistent with the theory that Wolves are continuing to earn their reputation for clean sheet ‘nearly men’ i.e. a team that often boasts decent defensive figures but has a hard time converting these into concrete shutouts.

Furthermore, in four home matches against last season’s top-six in 2019/20, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have conceded 10 times.

It, therefore, seems likely that Liverpool will find a way to break through Wolves’ defence in Double Gameweek 24, even if they may not thrash them, which seems a fate they may spare for West Ham.

The Hammers may be in the early stages of a new (or perhaps, we should say ‘returning’) manager but, based on recent performances, they may have to work miracles to improve in time to face Liverpool, especially with their goalkeeper situation so uncertain.

Either way, it looks unlikely that West Ham will make life too difficult for Liverpool in Double Gameweek 24, especially as the Reds have scored four times in two of their last three Premier League visits to east London.

How does Firmino compare with his colleagues?

In short, the answer is very favourably.

For some time now, Firmino’s underlying statistics have been competing very nicely with both Salah and Mané which should turn the heads of Fantasy managers considering his cost.

We’ll start by looking at how Firmino has fared over the last four Gameweeks.

Last four matches

During this time, the Brazilian has shot 13 times in the box, more than any of his colleagues.

In fact, during this period, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m), Danny Ings (£6.8m) and Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) are the only players in the whole of the Premier League to have registered more efforts inside the penalty area.

As you can see, during this period, Mané has managed 11 penalty box shots in 339 minutes while Salah has just nine in 338.

Last four matches

Firmino has also been in a favourable position when it comes to the quality of his chances since Gameweek 19 too.

The five big chances he has been afforded in this time is the joint-best among Liverpool players, level with Mané and three more than Salah.

Furthermore, this total is the joint-second-best in the Premier League, only Jesus (nine) handed more big chances in his last four outings than Firmino.

Last four matches

Mané is the most accurate of the Liverpool options over their last four matches, registering six shots on target.

However, Firmino is only one behind the Senegalese international with five of his own, the same as Salah.

How does Firmino look on the road?

While the Brazilian has compared very favourably with his colleagues over the last four matches, he really comes into his own when we change the parameters to last four away matches.

It is a well-documented and bizarre fact that Firmino is yet to score a Premier League goal at Anfield this season.

However, he has still been finding the net on his travels, all seven of his league goals coming away from home – particularly pertinent considering that both of Liverpool’s Double Gameweek 24 fixtures are on the road.

Last four away matches

With the filter switched to last four away matches, Firmino goes further clear of his team-mates when it comes to the above goal threat statistics.

During this period, he has registered 13 shots in the box, six big chances and seven efforts on target. He has been converting too, scoring four goals in these matches, more than any other colleague.

Meanwhile, Mané has 11 in the box, four big chances and six shots on target and Salah sits further below that on 11 shots in the box, two big chances and five shots on target.

Last four away matches

When it comes to creativity, there is more parity between each member of Liverpool’s front-three during this period.

Over their last four away matches, Firmino, Mané and Salah have each played eight key passes, although the latter is the leader for big chances created (three).

Last four away matches

The expected data combines all of that information to tell us just how much consideration Firmino deserves compared to his colleagues.

Over the last four away matches, Mané has the best minutes per expected goal involvement (xGI) with a score of 108.3 but Firmino is not too far behind on 117.7.

That figure is good enough for him to be just ahead of Salah on 119.8.

Conclusion

Firmino stands every chance of matching Salah and Mané’s output in Double Gameweek 24.

With Wolves and West Ham looking likely to concede in their meetings with Liverpool, Firmino’s recent performances indicate he can be involved in making that happen.

Both over the last four matches and his last four away trips especially, the Brazilian has produced some incredibly encouraging underlying statistics.

For example, it looks as if he is just as likely to assist as Mané and more likely to score than Salah based on the numbers we have seen.

It must be said that the gap between Firmino and his two attacking colleagues is not necessarily that huge, especially as his goals are worth one less point and he cannot benefit from clean sheets either.

Therefore, it’s hard to say that he is necessarily the vastly better option regardless of cost.

However, Firmino’s valuation, at present roughly £3.0m lower than Salah or Mané’s, is the key factor here.

With the ownership figures of Salah and Mané somewhat intimidating, some Fantasy managers may feel the pressure to put their teams under major surgery to get both of them in.

Naturally, this will almost certainly result in some hits to accommodate the swapping of premium options and may, of course, mean sacrificing Kevin De Bruyne (£10.7m), who has averaged 8.8 points over the last six Gameweeks.

However, with Firmino offering an opportunity to match his more expensive colleagues, he presents a less painful route into a Liverpool attacking double-up.

For example, those in possession of Tammy Abraham (£7.8m) and some cash in the bank may find Double Gameweek 24 an ideal time to upgrade to Firmino – as Chelsea face a resurgent Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester United and Spurs between then and Gameweek 27.

Crucially, if opting for Firmino over Salah or Mané allows Fantasy managers to avoid a hit for Double Gameweek 24, when hits may well be quite common, it could even put them in an advantageous position before a ball has even been kicked.

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907 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Stram Dunk
      5 months, 29 days ago

      Do you think these are good moves for dgw24?

      Kelly/ Rico/ Traore -> Robbo/ Williams/ 4.3mid (-8)

      Already have Salah and TAA
      0FT |1.3 ITB

      1. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 2 Years
        5 months, 29 days ago

        Not really no. Can't you just get Gomez?

        1. DantheManinaPan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 months, 29 days ago

          Agree

          1. Stram Dunk
              5 months, 29 days ago

              How about Kelly/Rico/Traore -> VVD/ Williams/ Fleck?
              Sheffield with some good fixtures after dgw...
              Not fan of Gomez.

        2. Ancelotti XI
          • 10 Years
          5 months, 29 days ago

          Not at all, no.

          1. Stram Dunk
              5 months, 28 days ago

              thanks

        3. britzdubb
          • 3 Years
          5 months, 29 days ago

          exact money for aurier+zaha-> fanderson+Gomez

          1. yay
          2. nay

          1. Stram Dunk
              5 months, 29 days ago

              1

            • Soto Ayam
                5 months, 29 days ago

                Not for Anderson, any others?

                1. britzdubb
                  • 3 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  6.6 max

                  was tempted by DGW and he has previously thrived under Moyes, playedok vs Shef as well

                  1. Soto Ayam
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      He's mercurial to say the least. Worth a punt at least

                2. Fulchester's New Centr…
                  • 2 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  1, but not wild about Fanderson.

                3. Ancelotti XI
                  • 10 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Grealish perhaps?

              • Tabasco
                • 9 Years
                5 months, 29 days ago

                Grealish & Rashford to Salah & Maupay?

                Can't afford it if Salah rises and the first two have City & Liverpool, otherwise I'd think it's a bit rash!

                1. Cahill
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  grealish doesnt have city

                  must be rash so

                  1. Tabasco
                    • 9 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    True story

              • KingOllie
                • 4 Years
                5 months, 29 days ago

                Are these moves worth it to get Salah?

                Martial, Richarlison, Chilwell -> Salah, Doucoure, Williams

                Or i could go:

                Martial + Chilwell -> Grealish + Robertson (go with no Salah)

                1. Cahill
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  dont really like either - B at a push

                2. Ancelotti XI
                  • 10 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Leicester have West Ham in GW24... Nobody else you can shift? Also only really worth it if you have 2 FTs.

                  An 8pt hit really increases the risk you take a net loss on this, with a less balanced side to deal with in a fortnight.

              • Cahill
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                5 months, 29 days ago

                Look good for GW24?

                McCarthy
                TAA Sidibe Williams
                Salah (TC) KDB Martial Grealish
                Firmino Rashford Vardy

                Martin Lund Shelvey Rico

                1. Soto Ayam
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    If you're gonna TC and put firminio in, might as well captain him ya?

                    1. Cahill
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 9 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      would prefer salah, thanks though

                2. migas2k7
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Who for the next two GW's:

                  A) Abraham
                  B) Maupay
                  C) Calvert (got richarlison cover)

                  additional up front i have ings and vardy.

                  1. No MO limits
                    • 3 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    I'd say B

                  2. Fulchester's New Centr…
                    • 2 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    DCL

                3. Gazpilicueta
                  • 5 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  double game week to consider, whany thoughts appreciated

                  Foster, Button
                  Trent, Lundstram, Soyuncu, Sidibe, Tomori
                  KDB, Mane, Maddison, Wijnaldum, Dendoncker
                  Aguero, Vardy, Ayew
                  0.7 in the bank and 2 free transfers

                  Here are my thoughts so far.
                  1) 2 free transfers.... I'm thinking probably just use one this week, which gives me the most flexibility going into the dgw.
                  2) I am definitely up for a liverpool triple up gw24, out of all of the options I think I prefer Robertson, and could just keep him long term, although I could be tempted by Gomez/may have to cos hes cheaper.
                  3) Could happily bring in a west ham player for their double up, I quite like Felipe Anderson, although hes not very popular.
                  4) time to get rid of Vardy I think, not sure who to go to, or what price point though, maybe Rashford, but I'm not super excited by United.
                  5) Soyuncu has been great but leicesters fixtures scare me, sidibe is cool but expensive, and tomori needs to go in my opinion, not sure in what order to deal with these issues.
                  6)Maddison should probably make way for someone more exciting soon, but i dont think its a pressing issue.

                  to anyone that read this far, thanks, and i look forward to reading your thoughts!

                  1. britzdubb
                    • 3 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    currently considering number 3 myself , see above

                4. Wolves Ay We
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Anyone thought of a free-hit in DGW to take advantage of the other great fixtures as well i.e.

                  Aston Villa v Watford
                  Spurs v Norwich City
                  Everton v Newcastle United
                  Man Utd v Burnley

                  1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                    • 2 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Would consider if I wasn't such a coward.

                  2. pingissimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 1 Year
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    The big blank in 31 still to come. If Liverpool go on a cup run too then that will play havoc with squads.

                5. cjk17
                  • 3 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Anyone know anything about Adam Idah of Norwich? Need a 4.4 attacker to finish my team and he played 64 minutes for Norwich last GW. Will he start again? Worth a punt?

                  1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                    • 2 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Out when Pukki's back. Greenwood better if just going to be benched anyway.

                  2. Would Ed Woodward
                    • 1 Year
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    No, Pukki is back, just get Greenwood.

                    1. cjk17
                      • 3 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      Ah. Cheers guys.

                6. No MO limits
                  • 3 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  I'm kinda desperate to have 3 Liv players along with Martial, Alli and ideally triple Leicester for dgw 24.
                  Will appreciate your advice guys on the below options:

                  1) gw24: Rico Grealish Jimenez-> VVD Martial Greenwood for -4
                  2) gw24: Grealish Jimenez -> Fleck FIRMINO
                  gw25: Alli-> Martial
                  gw26: Maddison Firmino-> Salah Ayew for -4 (and rotate Ayew with Fleck)
                  3) Rico Jimenez-> VVD Maupay for free
                  4) Rico Alli -> GOMEZ Martial for free
                  5) Rico Grealish-> ROBBO Hayden

                  Currently squad:
                  McCarthy
                  Taa- Soy- Lundstram
                  Mane- Kdb -Maddison- Alli
                  Vardy -Ings -Jimenez

                  Grealish Rico Kelly

                7. Flynny
                  • 5 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Who to triple captain next week out of mane and Salah?

                  I'm at 450k - so thinking salah as he will be more of a differential....

                  Thanks

                  1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                    • 2 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Consensus when this was asked a couple of hours ago was Mo.

                  2. pingissimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 1 Year
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Mo - 3 double digit returns in last 6

                    But wary of two away games - one of which is fairly meh

                    1. Flynny
                      • 5 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      Cheers. Think I'm heading to mo

                8. fakelund
                  • 2 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Anything pressing needed here this week, or bank?

                  Guaita
                  Soyuncu, TAA, Doherty
                  Cantwell, Mane, Richarlison, KDB
                  Maupay, Rashford, Vardy (c)

                  Heaton, Grealish, Lundstram, Kelly)

                  1. Istanbul 05
                    • 4 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    G2G

                9. fachada
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 1 Year
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  which one of those 3 would you keep for upcoming gameweeks? Martial, Abraham or Richarlison?

                  1. Gazpilicueta
                    • 5 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Personally I like Richarlison, and his fixtures look pretty good too.

                10. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Anyone thinking of the Alli > Mahrez swap?

                  Mahrez will surely be tough for Pep to not give minutes to over the next few

                  1. Tsparkes10
                    • 1 Year
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Tempting but nah, like Allis next 2 fixtures and more nailed

                    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      Norwich good fixture for sure
                      Watford bad though, very bad at the minute

                  2. Christina.
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    sold for Martial last week

                  3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Rich looks a better bet possibly than Rich to be fair with fixtures & nailedness

                11. Gazpilicueta
                  • 5 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  What has your overall rank journey been like this year?

                  Mine has been kinda fun so far, jumping between 200k and 500k pretty much all year, averaging around 250k, then in the last few weeks I manage to get close to, and within 100k.

                  Last weeks Aguero Captaincy has shot me into the top 25k, hopefully I haven't peaked too soon, Let's see if I can reach the 10k target!

                  interested to hear your overall rank journeys

                  1. Christina.
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    90k...WC wk 2....273...91....73....last 13 weeks between 3k and 5k.

                    1. Gazpilicueta
                      • 5 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      does this mean you were 73rd in gameweek 4? congrats!

                      1. Christina.
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        5 months, 29 days ago

                        lol...no
                        gw 8

                  2. dbeck
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Cant kick on, two steps forward one back, somewhere around the 500k mark. Not a good season. Hoping the darkness will end soon

                  3. Fulchester's New Centr…
                    • 2 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Really well done.
                    Mine has been really bad start, pulled it back to about 300k, been there ever since.

                12. g40steve
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  5 months, 29 days ago

                  Do you think there will be a better DGW to come than the Pool in 24?

                  1. jacklfc88
                    • 9 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Yes probably. Depends really on FA Cup fixtures though.

                  2. Fulchester's New Centr…
                    • 2 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Probably not.
                    DGW with a week between fixtures is pretty unusual and Pool have won a frankly unbelievable 20 out of 21 games this season - they are that good.

                    1. jacklfc88
                      • 9 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      Yeah but it is FA Cup in between there. Shrewsbury away, granted, but it's a kind draw and all of a sudden you're in the last 16 with another trophy to go for.

                      Klopp has sent Phillips back to Stuttgart, there will be a stronger XI in the cup IMO than previous, perhaps one or two of the big hitters.

                  3. Jullepuu
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      Fixture wise probably yes but this double game week will have a smaller risk for rotation

                  4. jacklfc88
                    • 9 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Anyone thinking Abraham for next few as a differential, tough fixtures but decent form...

                    My season is done with leagues I am in, too many template sides, so I am just looking to play catch up and have a bit of fun.

                    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                      • 2 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      I'm sure he'll tick over, but wouldn't bother with Tammy if you are just looking for a laugh.

                      1. jacklfc88
                        • 9 Years
                        5 months, 29 days ago

                        Well, not just a laugh I still wanna finish as high as possible

                    2. KingOllie
                      • 4 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      Get Laca if you want a punt

                      1. jacklfc88
                        • 9 Years
                        5 months, 29 days ago

                        Not enough budget.

                  5. KingOllie
                    • 4 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Who would you rather have this gameweek?

                    A) Chilwell (bur)
                    B) Robertson (MUN)

                    1. mojoindojo
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 6 Years
                      5 months, 29 days ago

                      A

                  6. mojoindojo
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 6 Years
                    5 months, 29 days ago

                    Salah and Holgate likely to rise before deadline?

                    Have only .1 buffer to do Traore,Pereira -> Salah,Holgate next week .

                  7. TripleHHH
                      5 months, 28 days ago

                      Sitting at 145k overall with 1.8m ITB 2FT and this team:

                      Pope, Button
                      TAA, Sidibe, Lundstram, Soyuncu, Rico
                      Ali, KDB, Salah, Cantwell, Dendoncker
                      Vardy, DCL, Rashford

                      Thinking Ali to Son but not sure there's much point
                      or
                      Ali to Mahrez (rotation risk)
                      or
                      upgrade Soyuncu to VVD

                      Still have TC, bench boost and wildcard to play.

                      Any thoughts?

                    • pakornk
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 3 Years
                      5 months, 28 days ago

                      for those getting Firmino, arent you scared of rotation? surely Origi or Minamino starts one.

                      1. jacklfc88
                        • 9 Years
                        5 months, 28 days ago

                        no Origi and/or Minamino start the FA Cup along with one of Salah/Mane and Elliot/Shaqiri

                    • pakornk
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 3 Years
                      5 months, 28 days ago

                      would you rather have Firmino or Robertson?

                      1. mcsteely
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        5 months, 28 days ago

                        Robbo

                    • Sloths
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      5 months, 28 days ago

                      I think it's hilarious how many people are considering Salah for captain or TC in GW24. Do you know how many away goals he's scored this season?

                      1...… and that was against a terrible Bournmouth side.

                      I hope he gets the most captained. I really do 🙂

                    • chrisb182
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      5 months, 28 days ago

                      Hi all, I really need some help with these two options:

                      A) Salah & Calvert-Lewin
                      or
                      B) Mahrez & Firmino

                      Rest of my team is:
                      McCarthy (Henderson)
                      TAA, Lundstram, Dunk (Janmaat, Williams)
                      Mane, KDB, Cantwell, Trossard
                      Vardy, Ings

                    • Pépé Pig
                      • 1 Year
                      5 months, 28 days ago

                      Bench 1:

                      A) Grealish (bha)
                      B) Cantwell (BOU)
                      C) Jimi (SOU)

                      Thanks