Pro Pundits

How the sunk cost fallacy can influence Fantasy managers’ decisions

In his latest Pro Pundits column, former Fantasy Premier League champion Simon March looks at how future decisions can be influenced by past ‘investments’.


We’re at that stage of the season where the decisions we FPL managers are facing are becoming ever more difficult, so I think it’s a good time to consider a cognitive bias that may well be affecting how we make those decisions; ‘sunk cost fallacy’.

A ‘sunk cost’ is essentially any cost that has already been incurred and cannot be retrieved. For example, the £200 I gave those men in a van outside the student union for some dodgy speakers back when I was 18, that money has gone, I can’t get it back. I really should stop thinking about it… 

The ‘sunk cost fallacy’ describes the way in which our future decisions are influenced by such past ‘investments’. Now, if we were being entirely rational and logical about things, all future expenditures would be based on maximising future gains but, because of the sunk cost fallacy, we often continue with an endeavour or ‘throw good money after bad’ in order to psychologically justify past decisions.

In FPL, sunk cost fallacy manifests itself in a few different ways, perhaps the most literal of which being when we have a lot of money tied up in a player due to them having increased in price during our ownership. We’re often less inclined to sell such players, even when we probably should, because we are overly influenced by what we’ve already invested.

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For example, I, like many, bought Leicester’s Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) when he was much cheaper so I have a lot of money tied up in him right now.

Of course, it’s easy to say in hindsight following his one-pointer and potentially significant injury that I should have transferred him out but, even before this Gameweek, there were objective arguments for doing so.

Vardy’s fixtures weren’t brilliant, his form was seemingly even worse and he looked to be dropping in price. Meanwhile, I could have flipped that investment to purchase Liverpool assets who have great fixtures, largely great form, a Double Gameweek and many of whom will increase in price.

On a purely logical, cost/benefit decision basis, such a move made a lot of sense, and I knew this, but I still didn’t do it, in part, because I didn’t want to lose the money I’d gained from Vardy’s previous price increases. Two other cognitive biases; loss aversion and status quo bias may also have been at play here, but those are for a different article.

Another, more abstract, manifestation of sunk cost fallacy comes from our desire to justify past decisions, often to our detriment. For example, in Gameweek 22, I was faced with using or losing one of my two free transfers so, with extreme reluctance, I sold Watford’s Ben Foster (£4.9m) and bought in West Ham’s Lukasz Fabianski (£4.9m).

Of course, Fabianski was infamously injured after 14 minutes, thus scoring one point, while Foster, naturally, scored six. Since Fabianski was my only playing goalkeeper, I was then forced to use yet another transfer to make up for the transfer that, you recall, I didn’t want to make in the first place. Foster was still the goalkeeper that I really wanted but did I buy him back? Oh no. I had to mentally ‘justify’ my previous (wrong) transfer and so I made another (wrong) transfer and bought in Southampton’s Alex McCarthy (£4.4m), who scored one point compared to Foster’s nine (…nine!).

Anyway, thank you for coming to my therapy session… wait, sorry, I was writing an article wasn’t I. The moral of this story is that, were I not influenced by sunk cost fallacy, I might have reversed my goalkeeper decision but, instead, I lost out even more because, instead of focusing my decisions on maximising my future potential gains, I made decisions with the intention of trying to justify my past decisions.

Sure, maybe I’m being a little hard on myself and these decisions may still pay off (McCarthy kept a clean sheet in Gameweek 24) but, you know, I’m trying to make a point here… and that point is; while it’s hard to accept when you’ve been wrong, it’s even harder to later accept being wrong multiple times in an effort to mentally ‘correct’ past wrong decisions which, by virtue of being in the past, physically cannot be corrected.

Sunk cost fallacy is a pretty deep-rooted bias and, as you’ve seen, I still commit it despite being well aware that I’m doing it but, ultimately, FPL only has 38 Gameweeks and every Gameweek counts so we don’t have the luxury of living in the past. Literally, the only thing that matters in this game are the points you score going forward so we’d do well to ensure that we make our decisions on that basis, no matter how loudly our past decisions might continue to echo in our ears.


Simon March is a member of our Pro Pundits initiative, a team of Fantasy managers here to bring you regular advice and updates on their teams. Simon won the FPL title in 2014/15 and has become a fixture on the punditry circuit ever since.


1,352 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Woy_is_back
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    83 points from the OR leader. Can I still win it?

    1. Party time
        4 years, 2 months ago

        With that trap in your team, I don't think so

        1. Woy_is_back
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          You tricked me :'(

          1. Party time
              4 years, 2 months ago

              😆

        2. Maddamotha
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Hva faen, syk rank mann!!

          1. Woy_is_back
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Tack 🙂

        3. Now I'm Panicking
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          500/1

      • Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        A. Jimmy & Traore
        B. Jimmy & Fleck

        1. Abra Dubravka
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          A

        2. Party time
            4 years, 2 months ago

            A

          • Karan14
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            A

        3. kime67
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Imagine the rank swings if salah get a hatty and mane misses out.

          1. Woy_is_back
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Don't excite me

          2. kime67
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            sorry

        4. have you seen cyan
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          people playing Ings vs Pool? And what about Alli vs City? Got to play both I guess?

          1. kime67
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            this is why i sold ings

            1. Woy_is_back
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Dem fixtures after pool

            2. have you seen cyan
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Its just one red tho in a sea of green, who did you sell him for?

            3. Jarnathan
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              That was a silly decision. Look at the fixtures afterwards

          2. Yome
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I think I will play him. Playing against his old club, he will up for it!!

            1. have you seen cyan
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              yea he desrves a start tbh, served me so well

        5. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          United have made an enquiry for Slimani, could cost up to £4m

          1. Party time
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Ole's at the wheel man!

            • kime67
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              where can i wommit

            • Le Bluff
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Saw a stat that Southampton have scored in every away game (I think).

              They perform so well away from home that I think they can cause Liverpool problems.

              Leaning towards playing Ings but might have to regardless depending on Mane and Vardy's injuries.

              1. Le Bluff
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 12 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                *Reply fail to TROPHÉ MOURINHO (above re. Ings)

                1. have you seen cyan
                  • 4 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  thanks I got it, yea I have a feeling Ings will score, and very early. First 5 mins 😀

            • El Presidente
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Not a bad backup player but they really should be going for a lot more IMO. Cavani for example

            • Now I'm Panicking
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              There's been a communication error - they actually have made an enquiry for Slimfast - must be for Luke Shaw.

          2. Maddamotha
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Who would you chip first (if any?) assuming they are all cleared fit?

            A) Abraham
            B) Vardy
            C) Maddison
            D) Martial

            1. GreennRed
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              C

          3. Woy_is_back
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            If Vardy is fit, are you keeping?
            He has to score soon again and Chelsea defence is garbage

            1. Yome
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Tempted to ship him, he is not delivering.

              1. Woy_is_back
                • 6 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                If Auba leaves I will bring in Martinelli and invest in midfield

                1. Vlad Tepes
                  • 7 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  When will the transfer window close?

                  1. Woy_is_back
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    1 week

                2. Johnny Drama
                  • 7 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  You really think he will leave?

                  1. Woy_is_back
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    No 😀

            2. GreennRed
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Depends on how fit the remainder of team are.

            3. Top Lad Dakes.
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Should’ve been able to score v BUR and WHU, among others...

              Struggling to keep

            4. El Presidente
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              If fit yeah keeping for now. Lot of fires to put out.

          4. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Best defender for 4.8 or under?

            1. GreennRed
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Lascelles.

            2. antis0cial
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Stephens or a Sheff Utd Def?

            3. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              newcastle are decent at the back so someone like lascelles or fernandez and upgrade elsewhere, cause there arent really an great options and newcastle have great fixtures

            4. FDMS All Starz
              • 8 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Watford have been immense

          5. chilli con kone
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Does anybody know how many games Luiz is banned for?

            Not flagged in FPL

            1. Top Lad Dakes.
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              3 if it was straight red?

            2. GreennRed
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Just Bournemouth cup game?

            3. Now I'm Panicking
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              1 game ban as was a "technical" RC - will be served in FA Cup.

            4. chilli con kone
              • 10 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Perfect thanks all

          6. Top Lad Dakes.
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Bit stuck for what to do here. Could WC (Kelly Soyuncu Rico Mane Martial Vardy, maybe DCL soon potential problems), could take a hit or two over a few GWs...

            McCarthy Martin
            TAA Soyuncu Lundstram Rico Kelly
            Mane* Salah KDB Martial Hayden
            Vardy* Ings DCL.

            1FT 0.2 ITB only. Traoré, Jimenez, Son, Auba, Lascelles, Robbo/VVD on watchlist

          7. tibollom
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            1 FT and 0.7 ITB.. bit of a mane issue.. what to do?

            Hendo Button
            TAA Rico Lunds Cathcart Dunk
            Mane KDB Grealish Doucoure Cantwell
            Ings Kun Bobby

            1. Top Lad Dakes.
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              If Mané is out, Son maybe.

            2. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              if mane's out id go auba cause of great fixtures and lower tsb now and opt for someone cheap like perez in midfield depending on your budget.

          8. KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I want bloody differential wildcard at this stage so currently leaning towards A.
            But think B will win
            So,suggest me the best one:

            A) Mahrez + Auba
            B) KDB + Ings

            1. CheesyZoot
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              You should be looking to have all of these players, minus Mahrez, stick Grealish in there or Traore and build the rest of your team out

            2. Karan14
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              B

            3. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              if i had to choose one b, but kdb terrible fixtures same with mahrez and rotation issues. id get auba and ings cause they both have amazing fixtures.

          9. have you seen cyan
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Im considering Grealish captain next week, he has the Cherries away, his recent away returns are:
            Bur away = 13 points
            City home = 1 point
            Bri away = 10 points
            Wat home = 2 points

            Based on his returns this season Bournemouth away is a likely team he will haul against. In their last meeting he only got an assist tho.

            Its either him or Salah and I think Saints wont be conceding as freely as Bounemouth do

            1. Do I Not Like Orange
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Overthinking it IMO. 12M midfielder on pens for the best team in the league at Anfield, got to be Salah.

              1. have you seen cyan
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                yea maybe

            2. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              when thinking that sou wont concede as freely, chances are aston villa are only gonna score 1 or 2 goals and liverpool definitly will score 1 or 2 with opportunity for more

              1. have you seen cyan
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                that Cherries game could be a thriller, both desperate for the win. Cilson and Grealish both haul I reckon

          10. Champions League Varane
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Wildcard..thoughts?

            Henderson Button

            Lund TAA Gomez Lascelles Reid

            KDB Grealish Traore Salah Hayden

            Auba Sergio Ings

            Trying to squeeze Jimenez in but 0.4 off Ings to Jimenez!

            1. CheesyZoot
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Looks good to me

            2. Karan14
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Button, Reid, Lascalles, Hayden?
              How will you use BB?

            3. antis0cial
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Liverpool have great fixtures and will want to win the league ASAP, not worried going with no pool attacker?

              1. have you seen cyan
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                he has salah

                1. antis0cial
                  • 7 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  My bad didn't see!

            4. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              wouldnt get gomez cause the only reason he's playing is cause lovren / matip were injured but theyre both coming back now. if youre really tryna get jimenez then change hendo to mccarthy

          11. CheesyZoot
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Already done a -4 this week so keeping mane for now...

            Who to play instead?

            A) Rico
            B) Greenwood
            C) Söyüncü

            Getting quite bored of ole not starting greenwood...

            1. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              ik you might wanna play greenwood but he's not gonna pop off against wolves. id say rico, soyuncu dont get too many attacking returns and leicester have struggled with cs's recently

          12. Eleven Hag
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Who are your ideal front three going fwd?

            1. have you seen cyan
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Auba, Jimmy and Ings (probably)

            2. Holmes
              • 10 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Aubameyang, Jimenez, Ings

            3. Eleven Hag
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Vardy is done for u guys?

              1. andres
                • 12 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Assuming he will be out for a while

              2. have you seen cyan
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Took him out for Bobby so yes for now. I could get him back at some point but rather not, had Vardy since 8.9 buying him back for 10mil will be a fail, only going to get him back if his form properly returns but I dont see it happening.

            4. antis0cial
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Auba Aguero Jime - can't afford though!

            5. Bury94
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Ronaldo, Messi, Mbappe

              1. El Presidente
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Out of this world

            6. Snevitz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Aguero, Ings and Vardy/Jimenez

          13. kysersosa
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Mane to Salah for a hit worth it for Southampton at home? Assuming mane isn’t fit?

          14. Over Midwicket
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Thoughts on this WC?

            Foster. McCarthy.
            TAA. Gomez. Baldock. (Stephens. Williams).
            KDB. Salah. Son. Grealish. (Hayden).
            Auba. Jimmy. Ings.

            0.1ITB.

            Thanks all.

            1. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              dont get gomez, his preffered defending collegues are upon return and he wont get the same game time. as mccarthy has great fixtures i dont see a point in having foster and watford arent a very secure choice. id say : foster for a 4.0, grealish for someone like perez and you can get vvd or traore and you can upgrade to robertson. it can be any player but those are my recomendations
              (i try way to hard on these replies)

          15. andres
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            If you already have salah and kdb who are you bringing in for Mane?

            1. Nailed Jesus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              traore

            2. GreennRed
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Grealish

            3. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              perez or traore in and get a forward like auba or aguero

          16. BNMC
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            If Mane's injury is serious, would it be sufficient to just go with TAA and Firmino from LIV, or should I just do a straight swap to Salah?

            1. Bury94
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Straight swap

          17. KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Triple pool defence & triple city attack
            Will be differential ?

            TAA Robbo VVD
            KDB Mahrez Aguero

            1. BNMC
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Very differential.

            2. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              do not get mahrez, bad fixtures and citys rotation method screws him over

          18. Salah_Fingers
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            50 points behind top of my ML - 1FT 0.8Itb - Should I WC?

            Guiata* - Button
            TAA - Robertson - Soy*- Kelly*-Lund
            Maddison*-KDB-Mane*-Richarlison*-Grealish
            Ings-Vardy*-DCL

            7 players that ideally i'd like to change. I've always WC'd for DGW's however i've not been this far behind in ML before.

            Or wait and see how my Trent TC goes in the final game? He has Salah TC

            1. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              id go for hendo or mccarthy instead of guiata and lascelles or fernandez instead of kelly. crystal palaces fixtures are good but theyre not the best defensively

          19. Bucket Man
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Season was going well till this GW. Brought in Mane with Greenwood and feel team in a poor state now after this week. At least I didn’t triple captain him Mane, I feel even more for those who did.

          20. fachada
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            do we have any press conf today ahead of tomorrows FA cup games?

            1. Warby84
              • 8 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              A few happening on SSN, midday Arteta possibly regarding Aubameyang!! Who I just bought in...

              1. fachada
                • 5 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                what is SSN?

          21. FDMS All Starz
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Which combo?

            A) Son - Traoré - Dcl

            Or

            B) Ings - Martial - Grealish

            1. BNMC
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              B, just barely.

            2. Bucket Man
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Would say A of those

            3. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              a but son for perez and dcl for auba (might be afordable idk)

          22. BNMC
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I'm nervous for the WHU game, fully expecting Salah to haul and leave my OR in tatters. At least I have Firmino...

            1. Philip Jones's Diary
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Should be a good match for the Liverpool defenders as well. If anyone looks like hauling atm its TAA.

          23. have you seen cyan
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            My gut says that Bournemouth Villa game will be like 2-3, 3-3 or something. Deulofeu>Cilson a bad move? Deulo has Eve at home

            1. Jarnathan
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              3 nil Villa

          24. wulfrunian
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            If Vardy is fit what would you do with this team?
            Ramsdale
            Rico/Gomez/Sidibe
            Maddison/Martial/Greaslih/Salah
            Vardy/Wilson/Firmino

            Button/Hayden/Aurier/Reid
            1ft 2.4itb

            a)Maddison->Pepe
            b)Aurier->Fernandez
            c)save

          25. BigBillyBass
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Would love to hear your thoughts on this WC. What do you reckon chaps?

            Pope (Button)
            TAA Laporte Lund (Stephens Tanganga)
            Salah KDB Grealish Traore (Fleck)
            Aguero Firmino Jimenez

            1. have you seen cyan
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Not bad, I wouldnt go Bobby tbh, and not convinced on Kun either. I would probably go Auba and punt on Cilson, but Cilson I cant recommend its just my gut saying that.

            2. Fizgard
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              do not get laporte

              1. BigBillyBass
                • 5 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Why not?

          26. FDMS All Starz
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Worth holding Mané since there is a long break after the Southampton game? Or just sell since he is 12+?

            1. CheesyZoot
              • 4 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Sell it it enables Auba or Aguero, hold it you can weather the storm, people will clamber to get him back soon

              1. CheesyZoot
                • 4 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Sell if*