Pro Pundits

Using xG data to identify the best low-owned options for Gameweek 28 and beyond

Six-time top 5k finisher Utkarsh Dalmia – aka Zophar –  talks us through some alternative FPL assets as we approach the second Blank Gameweek of the campaign.


The first truncated Gameweek of the season is upon us and the phrase “a hit is only a minus two this week” is being thrown about as usual.

There is some logic to this – if one of your players is going to score zero points this week, then selling him for someone who has a fixture should secure a minimum of two points for an appearance alone.

However, this not always the case, with rotation, yellow cards and conceding goals often having an effect. You also might end up, as Triggerlips used to say, “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” if you sell someone like Kevin De Bruyne (£10.8m)

For the purpose of this article, I’m focusing on identifying lesser-owned players who I believe can repay a hit this week as well as form part of your squad for the next three weeks leading up to Blank Gameweek 31. I’m ignoring goalkeepers as their ceiling is quite low.

First, I’m looking at the Custom Table for xGOT (expected goals on target) both for and against over the last four Gameweeks to identify the whipping boys, and then looking at the Season Ticker to see which teams play them.

As this piece draws heavily on stats from our Members Area, most of it is available only to subscribers.

In terms of my team, Barnes will likely come in for Riyad Mahrez (£8.5m). With Leroy Sane (£9.3m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) nearing fitness, I’m not confident of the Algerian’s prospects for the long term despite the rumours (and they are only that, for now) of a possible Double Gameweek 29 for the champions.

This will leave me with £4.2m in the bank. so I’m tempted to take a hit for Pereira or Doherty to sort out the Martin Kelly (£4.2m)/Diego Rico (£4.3m) problems but would also like to have some cash in the bank to make moves for City players if they do indeed have a double next week.

Bringing in Jota for Mason Greenwood (£4.3m) is also an option but after his display against Watford, I think selling him for a hit could potentially backfire.

All the Custom Tables used are accessible in the Members Area. Hope you enjoyed reading.


An FPL veteran of 10 seasons, Utkarsh Dalmia has been a member of the site right since 2009 and has finished in the top 5k in six of those campaigns, with a best finish of 17th in 2010. A Chelsea fan based in India, he relies heavily on statistics for his FPL decision-making process.

1,067 Comments Post a Comment
  1. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Kdb goal and assist in the Bernabeu and we think his fixtures are tough

    1. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      KDB steps it up against better opposition.

  2. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ziwho?

    1. Threat Level Midnight
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Guy should be banned for good. Too this site is only regulated when its beneficial for the Mods

  3. Smurf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    K DB finally officially on pens. Nicely taken by Kev.

  4. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    KDB on pens! Damn it! Sellers crying already!

  5. Je suis le chat
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I need to clean my jeans, Pep finally found his peno taker and my perma capper.

  6. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    City finally found their pen taker

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Hopefully, all the sellers gulping?

  7. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    "This game is proof that KdB isnt big game player. He never was."

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/21730300

    1. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      LOL. Apart from the numerous times he has come up with the goal or assist to win City games against Top 6 opponents or in the CL.

    2. Rover
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      This game is proof that KdB isn’t just a big game player.

  8. Fred54
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Peter Drury voice in my head: How they have turned this tie on its head!

  9. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    KdB and Niho992

    Both big game performers.

  10. Tinkermania
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    This is what Pep sees in Sterling. Non-football brains won't see it, or choose not to!

  11. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Massive for City

    That could be them through

  12. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    This Madrid team would be like grated cheese if LFC was playing tonight.

  13. BobbyDoesNotLook
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Was it a pen? Finishing was class from Kdb.

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yeah.

    2. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Clear one

    3. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Si

    4. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Okay. Was away for a bit and did not see the replays.

  14. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Kevin de Pen another million in value?

    1. Pras (FPL)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      12m next season

      1. Fred54
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        In League 2 Fantasy Football?!

  15. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Kevinnnnnn I love You!!!!!!!

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Steady on, put the beers down.

  16. J to the T
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    1FT 0.1 ITB
    Pope
    TAA Soy Stephens Saiss
    Salah (c) Martial Cantwell?
    Firmino Ings Vardy
    Button / Hogate? / KdB* Grealish*

    A) Bank FT play Cantwell v Leicester
    B) Bank FT play Holgate away at Man Utd
    C) Holgate-> Lascelles
    D) Grealish -> Barnes

  17. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    So City does not respect Brexit

  18. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Free kick city

    Ramos red

  19. CRO KLOPP
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramos red

  20. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Zidane looks so clueless.

  21. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Kdb not hopeless and on pens

  22. Yank Revolution
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    RC RAMOS!!

  23. ZeBestee
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Red Ramos.

  24. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramos red

  25. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Kdb absolute class

  26. ted mcnure
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Tarjeta roja!!

  27. Now I'm Panicking
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Sergio Ram-off

  28. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramos off. Comedy show!

  29. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramos

    LOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

  30. Annie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramos red, beautiful site in football