Pro Pundits

My Free Hit draft for FPL Double Gameweek 30+

As the Fantasy Premier League Double Gameweek 30+ deadline edges ever closer, I am feeling more confident about my latest draft.

As you know, it has been a strange few months. So strange in fact I now own three Manchester United players but only two from Liverpool.

I made the most of the slow Wildcard over the last few weeks, bringing in players who had good overall fixtures left, although in hindsight the decision to play the fixtures in the same order was a pretty obvious outcome, and one I didn’t think much about.

With £2.0m in the bank my team is flexible enough, at least from Gameweek 31+ onwards.

andys-pp-article

The only chip I have left is Free Hit. While I’m quite happy with this side for Gameweek 31+ (as happy as anyone can be not knowing how teams and players are going to react to the long break, and who might be in form), I’m not so happy about it for Gameweek 30+. There are not enough Double Gameweek players for my liking.

As there aren’t any more Double Gameweeks planned I don’t see a great reason for holding the Free Hit chip with only nine Gameweeks to go and that’s why it will be activated before Wednesday’s 5pm deadline. Here’s how the current draft looks.

andys-pp-article 1

There’s some players that have been in every single draft so far, they’re the more obvious picks, lets get them out of the way first:

Sergio Aguero (£11.8m) has scored 16 goals already this season, that’s the same as Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) in 849 fewer minutes. There’s naturally concerns about the Argentinian getting two starts but I’m hoping the temporary five substitute rule may actually help teams like Manchester City have a more consistent starting XI that they can manage the minutes of easier. 

Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) was the first name in my team. From a pure FPL point of view he’s finally shown us what he can do while being fully fit for the season. He looks on course to smash his previous record season tally of 209 points and if anyone outside of Edersen (£6.0m) has a chance of starting twice, it’s De Bruyne. He’s top for minutes played by an outfield Manchester City player in 2019/20.

Aston Villa are not a team I’m looking to load up on players from. They’re very generous when it comes to conceding goals and I can’t get excited by many of their attackers. Jack Grealish (£6.4m) has to be in though. He’s had a good season with seven goals and seven assists and I’d expect him to continue as the main points scorer in the team. No midfielder at his price or under has scored more points, and he represents good value going into this week.

I see some concerns from people about having Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.m) in their teams, but he’s been so consistent again this season whether playing as a centre-forward, or in a wider position. I can’t look past him when he has two games, even if one of them is against Manchester City.

The bench is Emiliano Martínez (£4.2m), Matt Targett (£4.4m), Jamaal Lascelles (£4.3m), and Ondrej Duda (£4.7m). I’m hopeful that I won’t have to rely on it this week.

John Lundstram (£4.9m) is currently missing from the team mostly due to fears of him having not won his place back completely from Sander Berge (£4.8m). The two goals he scored during a behind closed doors game has piqued my interest again though. I’m really hoping for early teams news that will let me swap him for John Egan (£4.6m). Lundstram has five double-figure hauls already this season. That’s four more than all of the other Sheffield United defenders combined. One start and a bench appearance in the other game could be enough to see him outscore the other options, and I, for one, am sick of being punished by ‘The Lord’.

With 10 clean sheets already this season I see the appeal of triple Sheffield United defence. My slight concern is whether there will be some rustiness to shake off which may lead to a few more goals than normal as players get up to speed. Dean Henderson (£5.3m) is also the goalkeeper who has prevented the highest expected goals at 4.4. You can view that from two ways – he’s a great goalkeeper, or at some point, he may not be able to keep preventing the number of good quality chances that the defenders are allowing. The triple up is an all eggs in one basket approach and I’m currently looking to avoid.

My third Sheffield United slot goes to Oliver McBurnie (£5.7m). I’ll be honest, this is a hard sell and you’d probably be better off without him, especially considering he has just four goals in 1,428 minutes of football. Around Gameweek 22 he started getting regular starts and minutes, although in the seven game period until the end of the season still only managed one goal. But there were some encouraging underlying statistics in that time. 

Elsewhere in the side, Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) gets one of the midfield slots. For the first 29 Gameweeks, I think it’s fair to see he’s flopped considering his hefty price tag. He’s scored fewer points than Riyad Mahrez (£8.5m) having played considerably more minutes.

I am encouraged by the fact he has the second-highest expected goal involvement for all players this season. It hasn’t gone right for him in terms of actual points so far but at some point I’d expect it to click. The enforced break, and the potential return of Leroy Sané (£9.3m) could really help him too. This is a player with over 32 and 35 attacking returns in the last couple of seasons. This year he has 13 and if there’s anyone that is going to come back and be the opposite of the rest of the season I’m putting my money on Sterling. 

I’ll quickly touch on the single Gameweek players in the starting XI. As I mentioned for McBurnie and Sheffield United, I don’t think you can go wrong targeting Aston Villa’s defence for conceding goals and that’s why I’m looking at Chelsea players. It’s difficult to know exactly which side Frank Lampard will go with, but Mason Mount (£6.2m) has only failed to start three times in the league this season and with the ability to play centrally and off the left I’m hoping he’ll be given another start, although there is a lot of competition for places in that Chelsea team. 

Raúl Jiménez (£8.1m) is definitely a consideration up front instead of McBurnie but at the moment I’ve gone with Matt Doherty (£6.3m) for my Wolves player. When I look at single Gameweek fixtures in Gameweek 30+ a few stand out, and one of them is Wolves getting to play a poor West Ham side.

Jiménez is incredibly consistent and I don’t for one second think he won’t get some kind of return this week. But in a week when I’m using my final chip and am trying to improve on a poor rank I want to do something different. The Mexican has 19 attacking returns so far, but when you include clean sheets, Doherty isn’t far behind on 16. The Irish wing-back also has four double digital hauls vs Jiménez with three, so it’s not like he’s any less explosive on his day.

That trio of McBurnie, Mount and Doherty is about the only part of this team that’s now fully locked in. That could be any combo of Sheffield United, Chelsea or Wolves player, and I’d even be tempted by an Arsenal defender instead of Leno to go for something even more different.

But for now I’m trying not to overthink. I know the fixtures I want to target, and  I have a good core of Double Gameweek players I’m very happy with, alongside some calculated differntials.

We’re about to go into the unknown. We’ve heard the phrase “a new normal” a lot over the last few weeks and it’s going to apply to football as well. I’ve gone with what I know when picking this squad but the new normal could mean things are completely different, I just hope I’ve got at least some of it right. 

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4,183 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Thoughts? BB is my last chip.
    Should I BB this?

    Leno McCarthy
    Trent Doherty Lascelles Justin Lund
    KDB Bruno Martial D.Luiz Grealish
    Vardy Jimenez (K)un.

    1. LSK
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Might as well, but why not get Mahrez in for 1 of your Utd mids?

      1. FOO FIGHTER
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Could be that he does not want to be stuck with triple rotation City?

        1. LSK
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Could be. But he was asking for thoughts about his team so I gave him mine.

          1. FOO FIGHTER
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            He was asking about BB.

  2. LSK
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    How is this team?

    Pope
    Trent, Stevens, Egan
    KDB, Salah, Mahrez, Grealish
    Aguero, Jiminez, Tammy

    3.9, Lacelles, 4.4, 3.9

    No BB or Wildcard left unfortunately. Too risky to go with that bench?

    1. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      It's a good side and will probably do fine this week

      1. LSK
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks, I hope so.

  3. yer old da
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Which quartet?

    A. Ederson, Stevens, Saka and Samatta
    B. Reina, Targett, Mahrez and Nketiah?

  4. SADIO SANÉ
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    final decision will have to wait until deadline, but which do you prefer atm??

    Leno *Nyland*
    Doherty Alonso Lundy Egan *Robinson*
    Auba Jimenez *Jesus*
    OR
    Leno *Henderson*
    Alonso Doherty Lundy Egan *Ota*
    Auba Jimenez *Wilson*
    OR
    Leno *Reina*
    Alonso Doherty Lundy *Stevens* *Baldock*
    Auba Jimenez *Wilson*

  5. ZTF
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Think I might just have settled on a bench boost team... what do you reckon?

    Ederson Leno
    O’Connell Baldock Target TAA A.Smith
    KDB Martial Grealish McGinn Fleck
    Aguero Aubameyang Ings

    0.1m itb 🙂

    1. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Both O'Connell and Fleck rumoured to be injured acc to Sheffield United + reddit forums

      1. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        How reliable are they though? Lineups this GW will be unpredictable anyway. Wouldn't mind getting Fleck but not if there's any doubt.

        1. ZTF
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Cheers for the heads up. I guess we can wait for early team news & have a backup plan if they’re right

        2. goriuanx
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Not sure on reliability

  6. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    My final decision basically comes down to

    Nketiah + Sterling or Saka + Aguero

    I won't (C) either City player though.

    Watchya reckon?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      You thought of going for Sane perhaps, still have your WC?

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Could do that too

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Problem is you just do not know how Pep will line up his attack now that he has another attacking option back with Sane. It really reduces playing time for each one of them.

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero will play both games, not full games. Sterling too, maybe less time. Not fancying either of those Arsenal players to start either.

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers

  7. davies
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A) Leno

    B) Henderson (triple SHU)

    1. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. Scratch
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Went Leno as I'd need whichever one I pick to play GW32

    3. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

    4. MidTableFantasy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B, don't trust Arsenal defense

    5. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      b for 1 week

  8. Totti
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    anyone intending to get both aguero and jesus together with auba and KDB?

    1. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Briefly considered it but dont want to lose Jimenez (cash tied up)

  9. Scratch
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    I'm bored of tinkering, think i'm done. Gotta catch people in ML so i'm going all-in. Full duck or no dinner!!

    Ederson / Leno
    Stevens, Egan, Baldock, Targett, Doherty
    Grealish, El Ghazi, KDB, Ozil, Mount
    Aguero, Aubameyang, Jimenez

  10. E25
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    If Lundstram is confirmed this could change, but need help choosing the last 3 spots for BB - this week only:

    A) Saiss, PVA, Fleck
    B) Doherty, Lascelles, Norwood
    C) Saiss, Basham, Mount (triple shef def)

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      C

  11. Rodgers's CHARACTER
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Mcburnie or Samatta

    1. Totti
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      samatta

    2. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      probably sam but dont like either

    3. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      maybe see if you can get a peek of teamsheet which will make your decision easier if one is benched

  12. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Think I am going to just FH instead of BB this GW.
    Not happy with my BB drafts at all. Thoughts?

    Option A- BB this week.
    Squad will be spread out. Most people are going with this strategy though.

    Option B- FH this GW. Keep my current team for next GW.
    Good fixtures for most of my current team in GW 31 and plenty of players I am happy to keep atm.

    Current team- GW 31+ fixtures in brackets.
    Pope (WAT).
    TAA (CRY), Maguire (SHU), Saiss (BOU).
    KDB (che), Fernandes (SHU), Salah (CRY) (c), Barnes (BHA).
    Auba (sou) (vc), Jota (BOU), DCL (nor).
    Stek, Stephens, Holgate, Dendoncker.
    3.2m ITB.
    WC, FH, BB left.

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Yes same thinking.

      See my fh underneath

      1. Dr. Agabuse
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Good Team for the future esp wuth already 2 united and 2 wolves

    2. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'd probably do the same with your team

  13. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Thoughts? BB -Gw30, WC -Gw31

    Leno - Henderson
    Lundstram - Egan - Bellerin - Alonso - Doherty
    Mahrez - Kdb - Pepe - Grealish - Mount
    Aguero - Jimenez - Pukki

    1. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Really nice- I like the Alonso and Pukki differentials from the template

  14. cravencottage
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    For this week only:
    A) Bruno and cantwell
    B) El Ghazi and Mount

  15. Where dahoud at
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    How this team look?

    Leno
    Baldock, Lundstram, doherty
    D. Silva, kdb, Salah, grealish
    Dcl, Rashford, jimenez

    Bench, button, dunk, taa, cantwell

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      TAA on bench?

    2. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Need some context as to your situ... Dilva??

  16. John78
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Thinking of replacing Trent with Laporte or Alonso? Thoughts?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I wouldn't.

    2. moment
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Already done it. Will FH him back in for 31 most likely but don't see myself having any Liverpool after that.

      1. John78
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        This is what im thinking as well. 2 more games to the title, am not sure if i want their players after that.

    3. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Considered Otamendi over Laporte for the cash saving?
      I wouldn't lose trent tbh.

  17. Garam MOSALAH
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Have TC,BB,FH and WC

    UT team

    Leno
    Lundy, Boldock, Walker
    KDB, Özil, Fleck, Grealish
    Aguero, Auba, Vardy

    3.9; 3.9, Traore, Soyuncu

    TC KDB or Aguero ?
    WC in GW 31+

  18. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Wow

    Reina
    Egan Basham Lundy
    KDB Sterling Salah Greal
    Auba Aguero Nketiah

    Oitb with 3 3,9 and Guendouzi (4.2)

    1. Sz21
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Cheers for the post above regarding FH.

      Not a huge Nketiah fan (don't think he will get too many mins) but it seems you are making a kind of sacrifice with Salah in there so it could work out very well overall.

      Similar thinking here with the rest of your team- triple SHU defence.
      Leno, Doherty + Mount being my other differences for now.
      4-4-2 for me.

  19. SADIO SANÉ
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Mendy over a Sheff U defender or bad idea?

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Bad or maybe evil

      1. SADIO SANÉ
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        😀 I remember when Mendy was 'worth 7m' and the best value player in the game

        1. mixology
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          yes, it lasted only a few weeks though

          1. SADIO SANÉ
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            sure did

    2. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      not nailed

  20. I Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Link to the Fleck rumours?

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      hang on ill find it

  21. Totti
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    choose 2:

    A) bruno
    B) mount
    C) barnes

    1. Garam MOSALAH
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      A n B

      1. Totti
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        why mount over barnes?

        1. E25
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Better fixture and likely more mins

    2. MidTableFantasy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      AB

      1. Totti
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        why mount over barnes?

  22. JasonG123
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Any thoughts on this BB team (WC next week).

    Ederson (Leno)
    Lundstram Stevens Egan (TAA Targett)
    KDB (c) Grealish (vc) El Ghazi Saka (Fernandes)
    Aguero Auba Jimenez

    1. MidTableFantasy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Solid

    2. mixology
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      would you rather own el ghazi/saka + trent over something like mings/lascelles/target + mahrez? Unless you want to keep Ederson in goal for defensive returns

  23. MGMT
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Best Non-DGW defender to bring in for FH?

    1. mixology
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I currently own Alonso and Doherty and can't bring myself to get rid of them now even with the DGW and a WC in hand

    2. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      trent and doherty by far the best.

  24. MidTableFantasy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    How does this look for FH:

    Henderson
    TAA Basham Egan
    KDB Mane Saka Mahrez Grealish
    Auba Aguero

  25. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A) Ederson, TAA, Abraham
    B) Leno, Justin, Aguero

    Best option?

    1. Garam MOSALAH
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. Starky22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

  26. otisss
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Am I good to go? BB this week and WC’in next.

    Leno, Ramsdale
    TAA, Basham, Egan, Lundstram, Targett
    KDB, Sterling, Grealish, Mount, Cantwell
    Aguero (C), Auba, Nketiah

  27. CheesyZoot
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Whats better combo:

    A) Jota + Targett

    B) Samatta + Mustafi

    1. MidTableFantasy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      What about Sumatta and Targett? Or SHU def?

      1. CheesyZoot
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Already have Hendo, Egan, Lundstsram

  28. Garam MOSALAH
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    TC

    KDB or Aguero ?

    1. Starky22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      KDB

    2. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero

    3. E25
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      kun

  29. Starky22
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    BB Set?
    Leno
    Baldock Stevens Lundy
    KDB (c) Mahrez Grealish McGinn
    Samatta Aguero Auba

    Ramsdale TAA Mount Saiss

    ??

    1. otisss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Love it

  30. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    How's this for FH draft, GTG?

    Henderson
    TAA Doherty Stevens Lundstram
    Sterling KDB Grealish
    Aguero Aubameyang Jota

    Bench = Fodder

    Thanks