Pro Pundits - Simon

Are differentials always the most effective route to FPL success?

In his latest Pro Pundits column, former Fantasy Premier League champion Simon March talks us through how effective differentials can be for the season run-in.


If you spend any time on Fantasy Football sites and forums which, if you’re reading this, you do, you’ll have noticed people talking a lot about ‘differentials’.

A ‘differential’, is a low-owned player, be that in overall FPL terms or in the context of a mini-league. There is no universal definition of what constitutes a differential in overall FPL, but it usually applies to players with sub-20% ownership with a ‘true differential’ being a player with sub-5%. Within discussions of differentials, a player becomes ‘more of a differential’ the lower his overall ownership.

What I’ll call; ‘differential theory’ refers to the idea that, if a low-owned player scores well they will, by virtue of their low-ownership, have a positive effect on the ranks of those managers that do own them.

The inverse of this philosophy is the apocryphal ‘Template’ which argues that, if your team resembles too many other teams, you won’t be able to advance up the ranks, strengthening the case for differentials. 

Discussions of differentials intensify toward the end of the season when people are making last-gasp attempts to move up the overall ranks or win their mini-leagues. But does differential theory actually work in practice?

Do Differentials Work?

Differential theory can work. Logically, if you own an otherwise low-owned player who has scored well, the likelihood that this will, when looked at in isolation, translate into a net benefit for you rank-wise should be quite high. Everyone has, at some point, benefitted from a differential and FPL is littered with examples of them paying off, so it’s something we tend to believe quite strongly in.

However, owning even a high-scoring differential won’t pay off on its own. For this to happen, the higher-owned alternatives also have to score fewer points. In other words; if a 5% owned player and a 50% owned player both score 10 points, their ownership percentages become less relevant. The differential has to outscore the more popular alternatives to have a net-positive effect.

As bookies and weathermen will be all too familiar with, when formulating the probability of an outcome, the more variables that you have to insert into the formula, the lower the probability of that outcome occurring typically becomes.

Gameweek 32+ Scout Picks focus on Arsenal, Wolves and Man United

The likelihood of your differential delivering a net positive score is, therefore; the probability of your differential scoring offset against the probability of a higher-owned player also scoring. Given that highly-owned players often score well (which is often why they’re highly-owned) and low-owned players often don’t (which is often why they’re low-owned), this is not a formula you would expect to pay off regularly and, maybe, not even very often.

You often see mention of “high risk, high reward” options on FPL forums but you will sometimes get the impression that, actually, they’re looking at ‘risk’ and ‘reward’ as if more risk equals more reward. Of course more risk may result in more reward on occasion, but your expected payoff will always be reward divided by risk so, on average, more risk will equal less reward.

Of course, differentials may be differentials because they’ve just come into the team or come back from injury. In such cases, their prospects might be much better, though these types of players naturally carry their own inherent risks.

Does ‘The Template’ Exist?

 1

So how do you move up the ranks then? Surely you can’t do it just by owning the well-owned players? Well, yes and no. If you take a look at my current team below, there aren’t many players who you would call a ‘true’ differential. In fact, only Mason Holgate (£4.3m) and Todd Cantwell (£4.6m) are under 15% ownership (13% each). In other words, it’s fairly ‘template’.

It might surprise people to learn therefore that not a single other manager in the top 10k has the same combination of players. Even if you remove my three lowest-owned players from the equation (the above plus Ings at 21%) only 0.11% or 11 people have the same team as me in the Top 10k.

While this isn’t conclusive proof that the ‘template’ is, in fact, a myth, it definitely suggests that we exaggerate its significance. This, of course, is less likely to apply to mini leagues with relatively few entrants, but I’m afraid that scenario is for another article.

Impact on FPL Strategy

What does this all mean for FPL strategy? Well, to me it suggests that focusing on differentials and ownership percentages won’t be as beneficial to your success as focusing on which players will score the most is likely to be. So, yet again, however complicated we make FPL, it ultimately still comes down to picking the players who will score the most points. There is a potential benefit to a good differential, but it’s important to ask yourself; are they ‘good’, and not just ‘different’. Will they really outscore the more popular alternatives?

In conclusion, while I wouldn’t rule out the benefit of a good punty differential, and there is definitely a time and a place for them (e.g. when you’re desperate or when you’re a bit drunk), placing yourself at the mercy of them too frequently will almost certainly not pay off over time.

The better option, I believe, is not to focus on ownership percentages at all but, instead, focus only on expected points. Over the course of a season, consistency, I believe, will always be the best differential.

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 32+

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £17.50. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

1,031 Comments Post a Comment
  1. prbaker1980
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    I don’t believe in differentials at all - I think they’re a complete waste of time. My focus is always on the template and incremental marginal gains.

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      what is the template at the moment?

      1. prbaker1980
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Impossible to say 2 and a bit weeks into this nine week run. But generally the most owned players by active teams is the best place to start.

      2. Bobby Digital
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Pope
        TAA WolvesDef Lascelles
        Salah KDB Bruno Son
        Jimi Rash DCL

        Thats pretty template innit?

    2. Pu-li-sick (sic)
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      So you play not to win then?

      1. prbaker1980
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Well .... I’m top of every mini league I’m in and 396 in the world, so doing ok thanks.

        1. Annie
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Top 1k every season, easy...

        2. SADIO SANÉ
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          how did you determine the template in GW1?

          1. prbaker1980
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 3 days ago

            You can’t. You take a punt and plan to wildcard somewhere between GWs 4-6.

        3. Pu-li-sick (sic)
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          We've only got your word for that but still you're not gonna win it as I say. It seems to me you're possibly having a good season and you think therefore there's some universal truth in the way you've played it.

          1. prbaker1980
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 3 days ago

            There’s many ways of playing the game and being successful, but as the article says, there’s little value or benefit to differentials. All risk for very limited/unlikely reward.

        4. Lucy2019
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Prove it and provide a link then.

          1. Lucy2019
            1 month, 3 days ago

            https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/73609/event/41

            Not sure I believe this is you but either way your mantra isn't doing your history any favours.

            1. Annie
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 3 days ago

              yeah, as I suspected. Best season by a mile.

              1. prbaker1980
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 3 days ago

                Do you disagree with my view on differentials?

            2. Tempestic
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 3 days ago

              It is him, Paul Baker

    3. FOO FIGHTER
      1 month, 3 days ago

      What is template?

      1. prbaker1980
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Do you mean in theory or in practice?

    4. Ninja Škrtel
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      what is this? and article related comment?

      1. Ninja Škrtel
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        an*

        1. prbaker1980
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Yes - but also one of my key FPL mantras!

    5. El Presidente
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Some players can change, but I would say TAA, Doherty, 1 NEW def 1 WOL def in defence, KDB one of Salah/Mané one or 2 MUN and Son in midfield and than in attack Rashford + Jimenez and one of DCL/Ings.

      1. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Seems to me the key point is being overlooked. Personally, I'm heading my ML and playing it safe. But if I were midtable, playing it safe would not take me to the top, so I'd have to gamble. This is where differentials come into their own. With, say, 4 differentials (eg Foden) hauling, I could gain say 40 points on those above me in a GW, especially if popular picks (eg De Bruyne) are rested. If it doesn't come off I go from obscurity to obscurity, but if it does come off a couple of times, I'm back in the running.

        1. prbaker1980
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          I would argue taking risks with captaincy picks and chips would be more effective still than differentials for that purpose.

    6. Pep bites Kun
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Link your team

  2. sunnyh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Kind of at an loss to what to do here:

    Pope - Hendo
    TAA - AWB - Doherty - Lascelles - Stephens
    Salah - KDB - Bruno - Doucoure* - Mooy
    Auba* - DCL - Jimi

    Im currently thinking Auba + Doucoure --> Rash + Pulisic or Ings + Martial?

    Was initially leaning towards Ings + Martial but Ole's comments scaring me off Martial a bit as he talks about rotation with Ighalo and big upping Rash. Any other options im missing? Cheers in advance!

    1. sunnyh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Anyone?

      1. Whazza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Both options looks great. Puli could be injured

    2. Hiddenpaw
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      I have Auba too and seriously considering Kane if he looks good after this week.

    3. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      well, Ighalo played in the cup so what was that you were afraid of?

      During this run from now until 26th of juli you have to just be prepared that anyone of your players will be rested/rotated. Martial starts tonight if nothing obscure happens in the lowry

  3. FOO FIGHTER
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Think I will start next season with two up top.

    Rashford and Timo Werner.

    1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Before the prices, form or fixtures. OK then.

      1. Would Ed Woodward
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        He's just better at planning than you, doesn't need any of that spoonfeeding nonsense like prices and fixtures.

        1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Dude is operating at a god level.

          1. FOO FIGHTER
            1 month, 3 days ago

            Lol

          2. Would Ed Woodward
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 3 days ago

            Frantically tearing up his well laid plans once Rash is reclassified as a mid.

            1. Tempestic
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 3 days ago

              ahah

              1. Tempestic
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 3 days ago

                that'll cause complete chaos

            2. FOO FIGHTER
              1 month, 3 days ago

              That makes things easier in for midfield lol.

              1. Would Ed Woodward
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 3 days ago

                Gonna be tough choosing between Bruno, Rashford and Sancho though.

                1. FOO FIGHTER
                  1 month, 3 days ago

                  Is Sancho moving to UTD?

                  1. Would Ed Woodward
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 3 days ago

                    Sanchez* autocorrect sorry

                    1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
                      • 5 Years
                      1 month, 3 days ago

                      I've watched Sanchez play for Inter a couple of times in the last week or so - I can confirm it's not exclusively Man U he is terrible playing for.

                      1. Would Ed Woodward
                        • 1 Year
                        1 month, 3 days ago

                        I've watched him play for them too, he's completely finished, seemed to happen very suddenly, reminds me of Torres.

                      2. bench boost for every gamew…
                        • 3 Years
                        1 month, 3 days ago

                        from half way into his last season in Arsenal something happened to Sanchez, it´s like he fallen off the wheels and never came up riding again.

                    2. FOO FIGHTER
                      1 month, 3 days ago

                      Sanchez is past his best.

      2. FOO FIGHTER
        1 month, 3 days ago

        No form involved at the start of the season. Timo Werner is a goal machine.

        1. Pras Scott Talent
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Just like Morata?

          1. FOO FIGHTER
            1 month, 3 days ago

            Werner coming from Bundesliga. Not the 'oh my gosh my leg is broken' play acting La Liga..

    2. Young Lingard
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      If and probably I own Trent at him new price say £8m
      I will have to set a captain on him baring knowledge of injury and/or leaked team news suggesting rest
      That price added with his above 6 points a game average I feel would be sufficient.
      Alternatively de Bruyne will rise and might have to do the same
      It’s boring asf though if you stay displined the united fan in me will be looking at some sparkly new toy wanting to punt on them away to palace in December

  4. Kannbury
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Any idea what is happening with Ngakia? Is he done with West Ham or can he just sign another contract and start playing again?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      1 month, 3 days ago

      He is leaving at the end of the season.

      1. Would Ed Woodward
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        No, his contract expires today.

    2. Would Ed Woodward
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      He's done, he was offered a new contract and turned it down.

    3. Kannbury
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Thankyou.

      1. Zogzeg
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        I own Ngakia and am looking for a replacement.
        If Lamptey(4.0) gets another start for Brighton tonight, then I'll be tempted, with one eye on BB37 or 38 (NEW, bur).

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Yeah Lamptey or go Robinson.

  5. UnitedRthebest
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Man Utd- Brighton predictions?

    1. UnitedRthebest
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Mine is 2-0 Man Utd.
      Rashford and Martial to score.

    2. Annie
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      1-0 Brighton

      1. prbaker1980
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

    3. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      1-1. Reports of Man U's sudden return to excellence is greatly exaggerated.

      1. SADIO SANÉ
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        like this

      2. maglia rosa
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Another positive performance with some overcome adversity thrown in will go some way to allay my fears.

    4. Would Ed Woodward
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      0-12.

    5. _sidney_will
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      2-2

    6. FOO FIGHTER
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Hatties for both Martial and Rashford would be fantastic!

    7. bencaraway
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      The long awaited arrival of the Bruno assist onto Maguire's head from a free kick.

    8. The Strokes
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      1-0 but would love 4-1

    9. El Presidente
      1 month, 3 days ago

      5-0 United

    10. UnitedRthebest
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Very interesting. Cheers!

    11. Jack Burton
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      I have 3 attackers and Rashford captain so nil,nil written all over it

  6. Stram Dunk
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Patricio
    TAA Doherty AWB
    Son KDB Foden Bruno Mane
    Jimenez DCL
    ------------------------------------------
    Martin Fernandez Dunk Nketiah

    2FT and 0.0 ITB

    A) Mane -> Mahrez
    B) DCL -> Rashford
    C) A+B
    D) Save

    1. sunnyh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Thoughts on downgrading Son if he play wide again?

      1. Keeptrying
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Son to Mahrez or Martial

        1. Stram Dunk
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Cheers. Actually prefer Rashford over Martial

      2. Stram Dunk
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Yes, thought about this. Will see on Thursday (captained him) and then decide.

    2. The Strokes
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      b

  7. stu92
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Pope - 3.9
    TAA - Saiss - Lascelles - Holgate - Taylor
    Salah - KDB - Bruno - Traore - Foden
    Jimi - DCL - Vardy

    Vardy & Foden > Martial & Ings

    Worth it for a hit? Gives me a choice of Traore v DCL for the bench, reckon I'll be sold on it if Vardy blanks again against Leicester.

    1. sunnyh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Id maybe do Vardy and Traore to Martial and Ings

      Keep Foden

    2. The Strokes
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Why selling Foden now, he is on mu buy list

      1. stu92
        1 month, 3 days ago

        He's a bit of a rotation risk, would never feel comfortable starting him.

        1. The Strokes
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          If he doesn't play the week before then I guess you can start him the following week.
          Or on matches before and after FA cup

  8. El_Gigante
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    A. Sarr + DCL > Mahrez + Nketiah
    B. Sarr > Foden
    C. Something else?

    2ft, 0.4itb

    Team:
    Pope (Button)
    TAA, Doherty, Aurier (Lascelles, Simpson)
    Mane, KDB, Fernandes, Sarr (Guendouzi)
    Jimenez, Rashford, DCL

    1. sunnyh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      A looks nice

  9. Real Socialad
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Wildcarding this week because my team is a total car crash at the moment and sliding in the rankings every week. Does this team look at least OK?

    Kepa/Foster
    AWB/VVD/Saïss/Mee/Holgate
    KDB/Willian/Martial/Mahrez/Sarr
    Rashford/Jiminez/DCL

    1. Major League Shocker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Pope or Patricio in goal and probably change out Sarr, otherwise should be fine.

  10. Dynamic
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53232171

    Could this create a DGW?

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      moving the game to another stadium seems like a pretty easy/obvious move, no fans anyway

    2. Lucy2019
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Already confirmed it will go ahead by Matty Hancock

      1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Daniel Rashford will be pleased

  11. marzo
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    WC Team. Still have BB**
    Which if these options would you choose?

    4-5-1.
    Option A.
    Pope, Martinez.
    TAA, Alonso, Aurier, Saiss, Lascelles.
    KDB, Salah, Bruno, Mahrez, Pulisic.
    Rashford, DCL, Nketiah.
    0.0m ITB.

    Option B.
    Saiss-> Doherty.
    DCL- Long (or other 4.9m or less striker, Connolly).
    Long/ Nket will be bench fodder mainly except for the BB.

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Greenwood instead of Connolly and BB when it looks like he has a good chance of playing? you might get lucky

  12. Ninja Škrtel
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    sometimes you have to follow your gut.

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/21872275

    1. The Strokes
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      We will see what he does in the next three matches now

      1. Ninja Škrtel
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        but you would agree it was worth keeping him until now?

    2. teneighty
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Nice pick!

  13. HaffNanner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    A. Martial
    B. Mahrez

    (already have Bruno, Rashford and KDB)

    1. The Strokes
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      a and b
      But if you need to choose A

    2. SADIO SANÉ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      if A blanks tonight then B 😀 😀

  14. The Strokes
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    For -4 Auba & Doherty to Jesus & Wan Bi
    Yes or No ?

    1. Keeptrying
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      no

  15. George James
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Best move?

    A) Auba >> Kane / Rashford / Jesus

    B) Auba + Kiko >> Jesus + AWB -4

    C) Something else 0ITB

    Pope
    TAA • Holgate • Doherty
    Martial • KDB • Bruno • Pulisic • Son
    Jimenez • Auba

    Stek / Eddie / Kiko / Williams

    1. The Strokes
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Same team here (only differences Son, Kiko, Will => Saka, Alonso, Aurier)
      And same question for me see message above
      Auba to Jesus / Rash or Auba and Doh for Jesus and Wan Bi

      1. The Strokes
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        At least we have identified the same weakenesses to our teams 😉

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      A - see how Kane plays against SHU as signs of him being in more attacking positions than of late. If does not pass the eye test then Rashford

      1. The Strokes
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Is it me or Spurs remainding calendar is against team that ar good at defending and not really good at scoring. (except Arsenal)

    3. George James
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Cheers all.

  16. GrandGaming
    1 month, 3 days ago

    1) Mahrez, Rashford and Son

    OR

    2) Mahrez, Martial and Jesus

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      1 month, 3 days ago

      1

    2. The Strokes
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      2

    3. Essential
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      2

    4. Tempestic
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      So just Rashford and Son vs Martial and Jesus...

      Close but I'd edge 2

    5. maglia rosa
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      1.....cant be sure of Jesus starts.

    6. Zogzeg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Rashford and Martial

      1. GrandGaming
        1 month, 2 days ago

        I can't. Already have AWB and Fernandes so can only get 1 more Utd.

  17. stu92
    1 month, 3 days ago

    A) Salah & Ings
    B) Son & Vardy

    1. Coys96
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      A

    2. Keeptrying
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      A

    3. FOO FIGHTER
      1 month, 3 days ago

      A

    4. The Strokes
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      a

    5. Essential
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      A

    6. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      +1 for A

  18. Essential
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    What would you do here?

    Pope
    TAA Robbo Doherty Saiss
    Salah Bruno Martial KDB
    DCL Jim

    Martinez Sarr Ayew Ward`

    1FT 0.0 ITB

    A Save FT
    B Sarr -> Foden bench Saiss(ARS)
    C Something else?

    Cheers

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      B. Foden "essential"

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      B

  19. Stejson
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 3 days ago

    What's a wildcard worth?

    With the exceptional season resulting in everyone getting unlimited transfers with 8 weeks of the season to go, it got me pondering, how much is a wildcard worth?

    Over the past decade of playing the game, I have usually gone with the strategy of happily taking a significant points hit (say -20) early in the season in order to preserve my first wildcard for use at Christmas. This usually lets me have a second wildcard for the back end of the season for the usual double gameweek / blank week shenanigans.
    To me, 20 points early doors seems reasonable, you can make that back up and then some over the first half of the season.

    This season, I went for a different approach. I wildcarded early and navigated Christmas with transfers, I then unfortunately wildcarded just before season shutdown. So I'm now in a position where I'd really love to have a wildcard available but sadly dont.
    But how many points would I pay for for with not long left.
    Given I'm at the business end of some H2H leagues, does 20 points still seems fair?

    So, I throw open to the community, what is a wildcard worth to you in terms of points today?

    Is 20 points too much, too little, just about right?

    Would you have different values later in the season (i mean a wildcard for the final week surely isn't worth 20 points?)

    One could extend the discussion to how much value does one assign to FH, BB & TC (my experiences this year of TC & BB combining to get me about 10 extra points)

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Very interesting. 20 points probably worth it, but hits always look bad.
      Not sure I can put a points value on it, but can say that it never turns out as well as one thinks it will.

      1. Stejson
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Maybe that's an issue going early that there is so long to go that the feeling is there must be a benefit from doing it where as taking a 20 point hit for say the last gameweek you can clearly see no benefit over that time frame

    2. Major League Shocker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 3 days ago

      I think a WC should be worth at least 30 points. I figure you gain about 15 points the week you play it, maybe 10 points the next week, 5 points the week after that. Also you potentially avoid taking any hits over that period.

      1. Stejson
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Seems a reasonable assertion. Would you start the season on -30 if you could have 3 wildcards?

        1. ManUnitedComeBack
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Easily, -30 is basically

          1. ManUnitedComeBack
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 3 days ago

            Easily, -30 is basically

        2. Major League Shocker
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Maybe. The more wildcards you give out, probably the less valuable each one is, so a third one might not be as valuable. But I would definitely prefer the status quo over starting on +30 with only 1 WC.

    3. Zogzeg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      I tend to do an early WC most seasons.
      I can always take a 20pt hit around Christmas if I feel it's worth it.
      There are some seasons when I'm happy with my team at that time of year, so I would have 'banked' the -20 and end up using the WC to tinker around the edges of my squad.

      Many ways to play the game though.

      1. Stejson
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Indeed indeed, many a way to play.

  20. Pep Roulette
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Mount to Pulisic/Willian for -4?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Willian's last hurrah

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      I don't think it's worth it for a hit

  21. NoSalah’d
    1 month, 3 days ago

    What do you guys think of these two FH drafts?
    DDG, 3.9m
    TAA, Doherty, Azpi, Lascelles, 3.9m
    Salah, Mane, Mahrez, Foden, Martial
    Maupay, Rashford, 4.2m

    OR

    DDG, 3.9m
    VVD, TAA, Doherty, Lascelles, 3.9m
    Mane, KDB, Martial, Foden, Pulisic
    Jesus, Rashford, 4.2m

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      The one with Kevin and without Maupay

      1. NoSalah’d
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Yeah, I prefer that one. Not keen on targeting the first match of the GW, as they have been awful so far and Norwich did alright against Man U

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Team 2

  22. Wolves Ay We
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    DDG, Martin
    TAA, Doherty, Fernandez, Kiko, Simpson
    KDB, Son, Salah. Fernandes, Saka
    Jimenez, Rashford, DCL

    2 FT's
    Son--> Mahrez
    Saka--> Foden

    Worth it? Would have:

    DDG, Martin
    TAA, Doherty, Fernandez, Kiko, Simpson
    KDB, Salah. Fernandes, Mahrez, Foden
    Jimenez, Rashford, DCL

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      You already had me at Son > Mahrez.

      Definitely

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      See how Son plays on Thurs, transfers look good

  23. Champ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    So given they both have decent fixtures to season end, would you prefer Mahrez or Bruno?

    Mahrez more explosive but Bruno is no slouch and should see more minutes...

    But those city fixtures...

    1. Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      What about those waves of Cty attacks? Mouth watering.

      1. Champ
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        I know... Stuff of wet dreams

        1. Wolves Ay We
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          You could summarise it as - Stuff of bodily fluids, 🙂

    2. Corgzzzz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Cant help to much other than to say I have both........

  24. Jacky boy
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    madness ? or reasonable ?

    bruno + jesus + ngakia(4.0) to nketia + mane + maguire for -4
    surely when all matches are done.

    full team:

    patricio
    VVD Boly Saiss
    Salah KDB Bruno Martial
    Jesus Rashford DCL

    4.0 guendouzi Schletto Ngakia

    2 FT
    0.0 ITB

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      I think the team is fine as it is but if you want Salah and Mane then go for it.

      1. Jacky boy
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        thanks. don't know how to use 2 fts.

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 3 days ago

          If you really want to use the fts then maybe Bruno to Foden and upgrade bench fodder defender to AWB

  25. Bocaginge
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    I’m looking for that differential in my mini league to make a jump. Giroud or Pukki? Playing one up top with Mane, Salah, Bruno, Martial and Son in mid

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      If I had to pick then Giroud

    2. Trophé Mourinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Giroud has always served me pretty well. Not sure I’d pick either of those tho. How about Ings, most people have ditched him, his fixtures aren’t nice but he is still doing good

      1. Bocaginge
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        It just for my free hit in Gw32+ I can see Ings scoring against City but potential for a higher return from the other two. Norwich need goals and you’d like to think Pukki would be the man. Giroud has been on a bit of form the last couple weeks too though.

  26. Who are all Lukakus
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Points prediction tonight?
    Mine:
    DDG 6
    Maguire 15 AWB 7
    Bruno 8 Martial 3
    Rashford 2
    You know what players I have 😉

    1. Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      DDG 2
      Fernandes 1
      Rashford 2

      I have all 3. 🙁

      😀

    2. _sidney_will
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Would love a Maguire 15 pointer, was painful seeing AWB get 11 last week!

  27. JJeyy
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    10% of the top10k have Bruno, Rash, Martial.

    1. internal error
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      As in all 3?

    2. Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      90% don't. That's the stat I find most interesting.

    3. Trophé Mourinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      3 Man U attackers is just bad value imo. 2 and a defender or Ddg is a great deal. For 3 attackers going to need big scores every week really, the only time I remember this being a constant good thing is Spurs - Kane, Ali, Eriksen. And even if Man U are playing good at the moment they certainly don’t have the form that Spurs team did

      1. Wolves Ay We
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        But which 2 attackers?

        1. Trophé Mourinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Tricky yea, but I like Martial and Rashford personally. The goal scorers

      2. internal error
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Patricio can match Ddg. Pope might even do better than DDG for the remainder of the season so DDG's value is not so important.

      3. Tonyawesome69
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 3 days ago

        I agree with this, Rashford, Martial and AWB for me

      4. PrettyDick
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        You must have skipped the year Salah, Coutinho, Firmino and Mané played together 😉 or Suarez, Sturridge, Stevie, Coutinho, Sterling.

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Lampard, Drogba, Malouda too

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 3 days ago

            Ronaldo, Rooney, Tevez did ok in 07/08

            Pretty sure Tevez & Adebayor were joined by one of Bellamy/Petrov at times for CIty in the same season a few years back

            Plus, with 3 man utd attackers from here out you dont need big scores every week - you only need big scores in 3 or 4 of:

            BOU, avl, SOU, cry, WHU, lei

            So whilst it's deifnitely not commonly effective - it can be lucrative at times, and with Pogba, Bruno, Martial OOP & Rashford, plus those fixtures - this couldpossibly be one of those rare times

            That being said I prefer AWB + Martial Rashford myself - Utd's defence is extremely statistically impressive of late, AWB in particular has been churning out points pretty consistently for about 6-10 GW's now

      5. Long ago I drew a walrus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        The point of having all 3 is that if UTD get anything from their attack it's going to be from 1 or 2 of them, so you're almost 100% covered. If you only have 2 then it's hard to determine which 2, e.g. it was Rashford and Martial vs SHU but Bruno all the times before so you'll miss out.

    4. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Only way to roll

  28. Captain_Shirokov
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 3 days ago

    People with FH left, what's the plan?

    1. Trophé Mourinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Free hitting for 34 when all the big teams have gash opponents. Will load up on them, seen quite a few people saying 38 but I’m not doing that. 33 has not bad fixtures either tbh but I prefer 34

      1. PrettyDick
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Not afraid of Liverpool and City rotation for that GW with both of them having played on the 2nd and the 5th before and with 'nothing to play for' ? Or are you rather targeting Spurs and Man U perhaps?

        1. Trophé Mourinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 3 days ago

          Well cash is the problem with those teams, Man U triple for sure. 3 from pool, 2 from City. 2 From Spurs I think.

          1. PrettyDick
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 3 days ago

            Yeah, fair point. Or you could get away with a few cheaper options (Foden, Gomez, Origi maybe even perhaps as an 8th attacker depending on your set-up and what you see from previous games). I guess time will tell. Best of luck with your FH whenever you play it

    2. Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      38, 38, 38

      Reckon 90% of FH owners doing this,

    3. drughi
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      gw 38 for some fun

  29. HaffNanner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    Auba, Jota, Mooy > Rashford, Nketiah, Mahrez/Martial for (-4)?
    Would shift to a 3-5-2

    Current team:

    Henderson (McCarthy)
    TAA Doherty Aurier (Stephens Lascelles)
    Salah KDB Fernandes Barnes (Mooy)
    Auba Jimenez Jota

    1. Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Yes

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      yes

    3. HaffNanner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      cheers both

    4. PrettyDick
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Yes and no, for me. This GW I'd do Auba -- > Rashford and hold the other transfer and do the other two for free the next GW for two reasons:

      I KNOW jota is just awful, but so i Arsenal's defence and I'd fancy *any* player to having a decent chance of getting a brace against them. (Question is if he still starts ofc)

      Second: (this is if you go with Mahrez) It will give you one more GW of info of which midfielder you should go for from City. Will Mahrez start again?

      And of course saving a hit in the process

      1. HaffNanner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 3 days ago

        Didn't think about that, thanks for the idea

  30. TeddiPonza
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 3 days ago

    What changes would you make?

    Martinez (Martin)
    TAA Doherty CTaylor (Saiss Lascelles)
    KdB Salah Son Bruno (Guendouzi)
    DCL Jimi Rash

    0,0m in bank and 2FT

    Thanks

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 3 days ago

      With 0itb and no urgent changesl I would burn the ft

    2. PrettyDick
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Difficult with almost all the games still left but if everything stays as it is now I'd do Son - Martial and save the other FT

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 3 days ago

      Wait for the GW to end and make a decision then. Team is template and many are in a similar pickle.