Pro Pundits - Simon

Are differentials always the most effective route to FPL success?

In his latest Pro Pundits column, former Fantasy Premier League champion Simon March talks us through how effective differentials can be for the season run-in.


If you spend any time on Fantasy Football sites and forums which, if you’re reading this, you do, you’ll have noticed people talking a lot about ‘differentials’.

A ‘differential’, is a low-owned player, be that in overall FPL terms or in the context of a mini-league. There is no universal definition of what constitutes a differential in overall FPL, but it usually applies to players with sub-20% ownership with a ‘true differential’ being a player with sub-5%. Within discussions of differentials, a player becomes ‘more of a differential’ the lower his overall ownership.

What I’ll call; ‘differential theory’ refers to the idea that, if a low-owned player scores well they will, by virtue of their low-ownership, have a positive effect on the ranks of those managers that do own them.

The inverse of this philosophy is the apocryphal ‘Template’ which argues that, if your team resembles too many other teams, you won’t be able to advance up the ranks, strengthening the case for differentials. 

Discussions of differentials intensify toward the end of the season when people are making last-gasp attempts to move up the overall ranks or win their mini-leagues. But does differential theory actually work in practice?

Do Differentials Work?

Differential theory can work. Logically, if you own an otherwise low-owned player who has scored well, the likelihood that this will, when looked at in isolation, translate into a net benefit for you rank-wise should be quite high. Everyone has, at some point, benefitted from a differential and FPL is littered with examples of them paying off, so it’s something we tend to believe quite strongly in.

However, owning even a high-scoring differential won’t pay off on its own. For this to happen, the higher-owned alternatives also have to score fewer points. In other words; if a 5% owned player and a 50% owned player both score 10 points, their ownership percentages become less relevant. The differential has to outscore the more popular alternatives to have a net-positive effect.

As bookies and weathermen will be all too familiar with, when formulating the probability of an outcome, the more variables that you have to insert into the formula, the lower the probability of that outcome occurring typically becomes.

Gameweek 32+ Scout Picks focus on Arsenal, Wolves and Man United

The likelihood of your differential delivering a net positive score is, therefore; the probability of your differential scoring offset against the probability of a higher-owned player also scoring. Given that highly-owned players often score well (which is often why they’re highly-owned) and low-owned players often don’t (which is often why they’re low-owned), this is not a formula you would expect to pay off regularly and, maybe, not even very often.

You often see mention of “high risk, high reward” options on FPL forums but you will sometimes get the impression that, actually, they’re looking at ‘risk’ and ‘reward’ as if more risk equals more reward. Of course more risk may result in more reward on occasion, but your expected payoff will always be reward divided by risk so, on average, more risk will equal less reward.

Of course, differentials may be differentials because they’ve just come into the team or come back from injury. In such cases, their prospects might be much better, though these types of players naturally carry their own inherent risks.

Does ‘The Template’ Exist?

 1

So how do you move up the ranks then? Surely you can’t do it just by owning the well-owned players? Well, yes and no. If you take a look at my current team below, there aren’t many players who you would call a ‘true’ differential. In fact, only Mason Holgate (£4.3m) and Todd Cantwell (£4.6m) are under 15% ownership (13% each). In other words, it’s fairly ‘template’.

It might surprise people to learn therefore that not a single other manager in the top 10k has the same combination of players. Even if you remove my three lowest-owned players from the equation (the above plus Ings at 21%) only 0.11% or 11 people have the same team as me in the Top 10k.

While this isn’t conclusive proof that the ‘template’ is, in fact, a myth, it definitely suggests that we exaggerate its significance. This, of course, is less likely to apply to mini leagues with relatively few entrants, but I’m afraid that scenario is for another article.

Impact on FPL Strategy

What does this all mean for FPL strategy? Well, to me it suggests that focusing on differentials and ownership percentages won’t be as beneficial to your success as focusing on which players will score the most is likely to be. So, yet again, however complicated we make FPL, it ultimately still comes down to picking the players who will score the most points. There is a potential benefit to a good differential, but it’s important to ask yourself; are they ‘good’, and not just ‘different’. Will they really outscore the more popular alternatives?

In conclusion, while I wouldn’t rule out the benefit of a good punty differential, and there is definitely a time and a place for them (e.g. when you’re desperate or when you’re a bit drunk), placing yourself at the mercy of them too frequently will almost certainly not pay off over time.

The better option, I believe, is not to focus on ownership percentages at all but, instead, focus only on expected points. Over the course of a season, consistency, I believe, will always be the best differential.

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1,031 Comments Post a Comment
  1. prbaker1980
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    9 days, 1 hour ago

    I don’t believe in differentials at all - I think they’re a complete waste of time. My focus is always on the template and incremental marginal gains.

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 5 Years
      9 days, 1 hour ago

      what is the template at the moment?

      1. prbaker1980
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        9 days, 1 hour ago

        Impossible to say 2 and a bit weeks into this nine week run. But generally the most owned players by active teams is the best place to start.

      2. Bobby Digital
        • 2 Years
        9 days, 1 hour ago

        Pope
        TAA WolvesDef Lascelles
        Salah KDB Bruno Son
        Jimi Rash DCL

        Thats pretty template innit?

    2. Pu-li-sick (sic)
      • 2 Years
      9 days, 1 hour ago

      So you play not to win then?

      1. prbaker1980
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        9 days, 1 hour ago

        Well .... I’m top of every mini league I’m in and 396 in the world, so doing ok thanks.

        1. Annie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          9 days, 1 hour ago

          Top 1k every season, easy...

        2. SADIO SANÉ
          • 5 Years
          9 days, 1 hour ago

          how did you determine the template in GW1?

          1. prbaker1980
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            9 days, 1 hour ago

            You can’t. You take a punt and plan to wildcard somewhere between GWs 4-6.

        3. Pu-li-sick (sic)
          • 2 Years
          9 days, 1 hour ago

          We've only got your word for that but still you're not gonna win it as I say. It seems to me you're possibly having a good season and you think therefore there's some universal truth in the way you've played it.

          1. prbaker1980
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            9 days, 1 hour ago

            There’s many ways of playing the game and being successful, but as the article says, there’s little value or benefit to differentials. All risk for very limited/unlikely reward.

        4. Lucy2019
            9 days, 1 hour ago

            Prove it and provide a link then.

            1. Lucy2019
                9 days, 1 hour ago

                https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/73609/event/41

                Not sure I believe this is you but either way your mantra isn't doing your history any favours.

                1. Annie
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  9 days, 52 mins ago

                  yeah, as I suspected. Best season by a mile.

                  1. prbaker1980
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    8 days, 22 hours ago

                    Do you disagree with my view on differentials?

                2. Tempestic
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  9 days, 48 mins ago

                  It is him, Paul Baker

        5. FOO FIGHTER
            9 days, 1 hour ago

            What is template?

            1. prbaker1980
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              9 days, 1 hour ago

              Do you mean in theory or in practice?

          • Ninja Škrtel
            • 6 Years
            9 days, 1 hour ago

            what is this? and article related comment?

            1. Ninja Škrtel
              • 6 Years
              9 days, 1 hour ago

              an*

              1. prbaker1980
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                9 days, 1 hour ago

                Yes - but also one of my key FPL mantras!

          • El Presidente
              9 days, 1 hour ago

              Some players can change, but I would say TAA, Doherty, 1 NEW def 1 WOL def in defence, KDB one of Salah/Mané one or 2 MUN and Son in midfield and than in attack Rashford + Jimenez and one of DCL/Ings.

              1. Andy_Social
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                9 days, 53 mins ago

                Seems to me the key point is being overlooked. Personally, I'm heading my ML and playing it safe. But if I were midtable, playing it safe would not take me to the top, so I'd have to gamble. This is where differentials come into their own. With, say, 4 differentials (eg Foden) hauling, I could gain say 40 points on those above me in a GW, especially if popular picks (eg De Bruyne) are rested. If it doesn't come off I go from obscurity to obscurity, but if it does come off a couple of times, I'm back in the running.

                1. prbaker1980
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  9 days, 4 mins ago

                  I would argue taking risks with captaincy picks and chips would be more effective still than differentials for that purpose.

            • Pep bites Kun
              • 3 Years
              8 days, 22 hours ago

              Link your team

          • sunnyh
            • 6 Years
            9 days, 1 hour ago

            Kind of at an loss to what to do here:

            Pope - Hendo
            TAA - AWB - Doherty - Lascelles - Stephens
            Salah - KDB - Bruno - Doucoure* - Mooy
            Auba* - DCL - Jimi

            Im currently thinking Auba + Doucoure --> Rash + Pulisic or Ings + Martial?

            Was initially leaning towards Ings + Martial but Ole's comments scaring me off Martial a bit as he talks about rotation with Ighalo and big upping Rash. Any other options im missing? Cheers in advance!

            1. sunnyh
              • 6 Years
              9 days, 1 hour ago

              Anyone?

              1. Whazza
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                9 days, 1 hour ago

                Both options looks great. Puli could be injured

            2. Hiddenpaw
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              9 days, 33 mins ago

              I have Auba too and seriously considering Kane if he looks good after this week.

            3. bench boost for every gamew…
              • 3 Years
              9 days, 31 mins ago

              well, Ighalo played in the cup so what was that you were afraid of?

              During this run from now until 26th of juli you have to just be prepared that anyone of your players will be rested/rotated. Martial starts tonight if nothing obscure happens in the lowry

          • FOO FIGHTER
              9 days, 1 hour ago

              Think I will start next season with two up top.

              Rashford and Timo Werner.

              1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
                • 5 Years
                9 days, 1 hour ago

                Before the prices, form or fixtures. OK then.

                1. Would Ed Woodward
                  • 1 Year
                  9 days, 1 hour ago

                  He's just better at planning than you, doesn't need any of that spoonfeeding nonsense like prices and fixtures.

                  1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
                    • 5 Years
                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                    Dude is operating at a god level.

                    1. FOO FIGHTER
                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                        Lol

                      • Would Ed Woodward
                        • 1 Year
                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                        Frantically tearing up his well laid plans once Rash is reclassified as a mid.

                        1. Tempestic
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 2 Years
                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                          ahah

                          1. Tempestic
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 2 Years
                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                            that'll cause complete chaos

                        2. FOO FIGHTER
                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                            That makes things easier in for midfield lol.

                            1. Would Ed Woodward
                              • 1 Year
                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                              Gonna be tough choosing between Bruno, Rashford and Sancho though.

                              1. FOO FIGHTER
                                  9 days, 1 hour ago

                                  Is Sancho moving to UTD?

                                  1. Would Ed Woodward
                                    • 1 Year
                                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                                    Sanchez* autocorrect sorry

                                    1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
                                      • 5 Years
                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                      I've watched Sanchez play for Inter a couple of times in the last week or so - I can confirm it's not exclusively Man U he is terrible playing for.

                                      1. Would Ed Woodward
                                        • 1 Year
                                        9 days, 59 mins ago

                                        I've watched him play for them too, he's completely finished, seemed to happen very suddenly, reminds me of Torres.

                                      2. bench boost for every gamew…
                                        • 3 Years
                                        9 days, 29 mins ago

                                        from half way into his last season in Arsenal something happened to Sanchez, it´s like he fallen off the wheels and never came up riding again.

                                    2. FOO FIGHTER
                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                        Sanchez is past his best.

                        3. FOO FIGHTER
                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                            No form involved at the start of the season. Timo Werner is a goal machine.

                            1. Pras Scott Talent
                              • 8 Years
                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                              Just like Morata?

                              1. FOO FIGHTER
                                  9 days, 1 hour ago

                                  Werner coming from Bundesliga. Not the 'oh my gosh my leg is broken' play acting La Liga..

                          • Young Lingard
                              9 days, 25 mins ago

                              If and probably I own Trent at him new price say £8m
                              I will have to set a captain on him baring knowledge of injury and/or leaked team news suggesting rest
                              That price added with his above 6 points a game average I feel would be sufficient.
                              Alternatively de Bruyne will rise and might have to do the same
                              It’s boring asf though if you stay displined the united fan in me will be looking at some sparkly new toy wanting to punt on them away to palace in December

                          • Kannbury
                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                              Any idea what is happening with Ngakia? Is he done with West Ham or can he just sign another contract and start playing again?

                              1. FOO FIGHTER
                                  9 days, 1 hour ago

                                  He is leaving at the end of the season.

                                  1. Would Ed Woodward
                                    • 1 Year
                                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                                    No, his contract expires today.

                                • Would Ed Woodward
                                  • 1 Year
                                  9 days, 1 hour ago

                                  He's done, he was offered a new contract and turned it down.

                                • Kannbury
                                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                                    Thankyou.

                                    1. Zogzeg
                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                      • 8 Years
                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                      I own Ngakia and am looking for a replacement.
                                      If Lamptey(4.0) gets another start for Brighton tonight, then I'll be tempted, with one eye on BB37 or 38 (NEW, bur).

                                      1. FOO FIGHTER
                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                          Yeah Lamptey or go Robinson.

                                  • UnitedRthebest
                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                      Man Utd- Brighton predictions?

                                      1. UnitedRthebest
                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                          Mine is 2-0 Man Utd.
                                          Rashford and Martial to score.

                                        • Annie
                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                          • 7 Years
                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                          1-0 Brighton

                                          1. prbaker1980
                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                            • 2 Years
                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                        • ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
                                          • 5 Years
                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                          1-1. Reports of Man U's sudden return to excellence is greatly exaggerated.

                                          1. SADIO SANÉ
                                            • 5 Years
                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                            like this

                                          2. maglia rosa
                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                            • 9 Years
                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                            Another positive performance with some overcome adversity thrown in will go some way to allay my fears.

                                        • Would Ed Woodward
                                          • 1 Year
                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                          0-12.

                                        • _sidney_will
                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                          • 3 Years
                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                          2-2

                                        • FOO FIGHTER
                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                            Hatties for both Martial and Rashford would be fantastic!

                                          • bencaraway
                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                            • 8 Years
                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                            The long awaited arrival of the Bruno assist onto Maguire's head from a free kick.

                                          • The Strokes
                                            • 1 Year
                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                            1-0 but would love 4-1

                                          • El Presidente
                                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                                              5-0 United

                                            • UnitedRthebest
                                                9 days, 59 mins ago

                                                Very interesting. Cheers!

                                              • Jack Burton
                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                • 4 Years
                                                9 days, 42 mins ago

                                                I have 3 attackers and Rashford captain so nil,nil written all over it

                                            • Stram Dunk
                                                9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                Patricio
                                                TAA Doherty AWB
                                                Son KDB Foden Bruno Mane
                                                Jimenez DCL
                                                ------------------------------------------
                                                Martin Fernandez Dunk Nketiah

                                                2FT and 0.0 ITB

                                                A) Mane -> Mahrez
                                                B) DCL -> Rashford
                                                C) A+B
                                                D) Save

                                                1. sunnyh
                                                  • 6 Years
                                                  9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                  Thoughts on downgrading Son if he play wide again?

                                                  1. Keeptrying
                                                    • 6 Years
                                                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                    Son to Mahrez or Martial

                                                    1. Stram Dunk
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        Cheers. Actually prefer Rashford over Martial

                                                    2. Stram Dunk
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        Yes, thought about this. Will see on Thursday (captained him) and then decide.

                                                    3. The Strokes
                                                      • 1 Year
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      b

                                                  2. stu92
                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                    Pope - 3.9
                                                    TAA - Saiss - Lascelles - Holgate - Taylor
                                                    Salah - KDB - Bruno - Traore - Foden
                                                    Jimi - DCL - Vardy

                                                    Vardy & Foden > Martial & Ings

                                                    Worth it for a hit? Gives me a choice of Traore v DCL for the bench, reckon I'll be sold on it if Vardy blanks again against Leicester.

                                                    1. sunnyh
                                                      • 6 Years
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      Id maybe do Vardy and Traore to Martial and Ings

                                                      Keep Foden

                                                    2. The Strokes
                                                      • 1 Year
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      Why selling Foden now, he is on mu buy list

                                                      1. stu92
                                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        He's a bit of a rotation risk, would never feel comfortable starting him.

                                                        1. The Strokes
                                                          • 1 Year
                                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                          If he doesn't play the week before then I guess you can start him the following week.
                                                          Or on matches before and after FA cup

                                                  3. El_Gigante
                                                    • 3 Years
                                                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                    A. Sarr + DCL > Mahrez + Nketiah
                                                    B. Sarr > Foden
                                                    C. Something else?

                                                    2ft, 0.4itb

                                                    Team:
                                                    Pope (Button)
                                                    TAA, Doherty, Aurier (Lascelles, Simpson)
                                                    Mane, KDB, Fernandes, Sarr (Guendouzi)
                                                    Jimenez, Rashford, DCL

                                                    1. sunnyh
                                                      • 6 Years
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      A looks nice

                                                  4. Real Socialad
                                                    • 1 Year
                                                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                    Wildcarding this week because my team is a total car crash at the moment and sliding in the rankings every week. Does this team look at least OK?

                                                    Kepa/Foster
                                                    AWB/VVD/Saïss/Mee/Holgate
                                                    KDB/Willian/Martial/Mahrez/Sarr
                                                    Rashford/Jiminez/DCL

                                                    1. Major League Shocker
                                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      Pope or Patricio in goal and probably change out Sarr, otherwise should be fine.

                                                  5. Dynamic
                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                    • 8 Years
                                                    9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53232171

                                                    Could this create a DGW?

                                                    1. SADIO SANÉ
                                                      • 5 Years
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      moving the game to another stadium seems like a pretty easy/obvious move, no fans anyway

                                                    2. Lucy2019
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        Already confirmed it will go ahead by Matty Hancock

                                                        1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
                                                          • 5 Years
                                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                          Daniel Rashford will be pleased

                                                    3. marzo
                                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                      • 8 Years
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      WC Team. Still have BB**
                                                      Which if these options would you choose?

                                                      4-5-1.
                                                      Option A.
                                                      Pope, Martinez.
                                                      TAA, Alonso, Aurier, Saiss, Lascelles.
                                                      KDB, Salah, Bruno, Mahrez, Pulisic.
                                                      Rashford, DCL, Nketiah.
                                                      0.0m ITB.

                                                      Option B.
                                                      Saiss-> Doherty.
                                                      DCL- Long (or other 4.9m or less striker, Connolly).
                                                      Long/ Nket will be bench fodder mainly except for the BB.

                                                      1. SADIO SANÉ
                                                        • 5 Years
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        Greenwood instead of Connolly and BB when it looks like he has a good chance of playing? you might get lucky

                                                    4. Ninja Škrtel
                                                      • 6 Years
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      sometimes you have to follow your gut.

                                                      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/21872275

                                                      1. The Strokes
                                                        • 1 Year
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        We will see what he does in the next three matches now

                                                        1. Ninja Škrtel
                                                          • 6 Years
                                                          9 days, 49 mins ago

                                                          but you would agree it was worth keeping him until now?

                                                      2. teneighty
                                                        • 5 Years
                                                        9 days, 40 mins ago

                                                        Nice pick!

                                                    5. HaffNanner
                                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                      • 2 Years
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      A. Martial
                                                      B. Mahrez

                                                      (already have Bruno, Rashford and KDB)

                                                      1. The Strokes
                                                        • 1 Year
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        a and b
                                                        But if you need to choose A

                                                      2. SADIO SANÉ
                                                        • 5 Years
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        if A blanks tonight then B 😀 😀

                                                    6. The Strokes
                                                      • 1 Year
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      For -4 Auba & Doherty to Jesus & Wan Bi
                                                      Yes or No ?

                                                      1. Keeptrying
                                                        • 6 Years
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        no

                                                    7. George James
                                                      • 5 Years
                                                      9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                      Best move?

                                                      A) Auba >> Kane / Rashford / Jesus

                                                      B) Auba + Kiko >> Jesus + AWB -4

                                                      C) Something else 0ITB

                                                      Pope
                                                      TAA • Holgate • Doherty
                                                      Martial • KDB • Bruno • Pulisic • Son
                                                      Jimenez • Auba

                                                      Stek / Eddie / Kiko / Williams

                                                      1. The Strokes
                                                        • 1 Year
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        Same team here (only differences Son, Kiko, Will => Saka, Alonso, Aurier)
                                                        And same question for me see message above
                                                        Auba to Jesus / Rash or Auba and Doh for Jesus and Wan Bi

                                                        1. The Strokes
                                                          • 1 Year
                                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                          At least we have identified the same weakenesses to our teams 😉

                                                      2. dunas_dog
                                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                        • 5 Years
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        A - see how Kane plays against SHU as signs of him being in more attacking positions than of late. If does not pass the eye test then Rashford

                                                        1. The Strokes
                                                          • 1 Year
                                                          9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                          Is it me or Spurs remainding calendar is against team that ar good at defending and not really good at scoring. (except Arsenal)

                                                      3. George James
                                                        • 5 Years
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        Cheers all.

                                                    8. GrandGaming
                                                        9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                        1) Mahrez, Rashford and Son

                                                        OR

                                                        2) Mahrez, Martial and Jesus

                                                        1. FOO FIGHTER
                                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                            1

                                                          • The Strokes
                                                            • 1 Year
                                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                            2

                                                          • Essential
                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                            • 4 Years
                                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                            2

                                                          • Tempestic
                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                            • 2 Years
                                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                            So just Rashford and Son vs Martial and Jesus...

                                                            Close but I'd edge 2

                                                          • maglia rosa
                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                            • 9 Years
                                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                            1.....cant be sure of Jesus starts.

                                                          • Zogzeg
                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                            • 8 Years
                                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                            Rashford and Martial

                                                            1. GrandGaming
                                                                8 days, 3 hours ago

                                                                I can't. Already have AWB and Fernandes so can only get 1 more Utd.

                                                          • stu92
                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                            9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                            A) Salah & Ings
                                                            B) Son & Vardy

                                                            1. Coys96
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              • 2 Years
                                                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                              A

                                                            2. Keeptrying
                                                              • 6 Years
                                                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                              A

                                                            3. FOO FIGHTER
                                                                9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                                A

                                                              • The Strokes
                                                                • 1 Year
                                                                9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                                a

                                                              • Essential
                                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                • 4 Years
                                                                9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                                A

                                                              • Fulchester's New Centr…
                                                                • 2 Years
                                                                9 days, 59 mins ago

                                                                +1 for A

                                                            4. Essential
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              • 4 Years
                                                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                              What would you do here?

                                                              Pope
                                                              TAA Robbo Doherty Saiss
                                                              Salah Bruno Martial KDB
                                                              DCL Jim

                                                              Martinez Sarr Ayew Ward`

                                                              1FT 0.0 ITB

                                                              A Save FT
                                                              B Sarr -> Foden bench Saiss(ARS)
                                                              C Something else?

                                                              Cheers

                                                              1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                                                                • 2 Years
                                                                9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                                B. Foden "essential"

                                                              2. Tonyawesome69
                                                                • 1 Year
                                                                9 days, 51 mins ago

                                                                B

                                                            5. Stejson
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              • 1 Year
                                                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                              What's a wildcard worth?

                                                              With the exceptional season resulting in everyone getting unlimited transfers with 8 weeks of the season to go, it got me pondering, how much is a wildcard worth?

                                                              Over the past decade of playing the game, I have usually gone with the strategy of happily taking a significant points hit (say -20) early in the season in order to preserve my first wildcard for use at Christmas. This usually lets me have a second wildcard for the back end of the season for the usual double gameweek / blank week shenanigans.
                                                              To me, 20 points early doors seems reasonable, you can make that back up and then some over the first half of the season.

                                                              This season, I went for a different approach. I wildcarded early and navigated Christmas with transfers, I then unfortunately wildcarded just before season shutdown. So I'm now in a position where I'd really love to have a wildcard available but sadly dont.
                                                              But how many points would I pay for for with not long left.
                                                              Given I'm at the business end of some H2H leagues, does 20 points still seems fair?

                                                              So, I throw open to the community, what is a wildcard worth to you in terms of points today?

                                                              Is 20 points too much, too little, just about right?

                                                              Would you have different values later in the season (i mean a wildcard for the final week surely isn't worth 20 points?)

                                                              One could extend the discussion to how much value does one assign to FH, BB & TC (my experiences this year of TC & BB combining to get me about 10 extra points)

                                                              1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                                                                • 2 Years
                                                                9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                                Very interesting. 20 points probably worth it, but hits always look bad.
                                                                Not sure I can put a points value on it, but can say that it never turns out as well as one thinks it will.

                                                                1. Stejson
                                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                  • 1 Year
                                                                  9 days, 57 mins ago

                                                                  Maybe that's an issue going early that there is so long to go that the feeling is there must be a benefit from doing it where as taking a 20 point hit for say the last gameweek you can clearly see no benefit over that time frame

                                                              2. Major League Shocker
                                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                9 days, 56 mins ago

                                                                I think a WC should be worth at least 30 points. I figure you gain about 15 points the week you play it, maybe 10 points the next week, 5 points the week after that. Also you potentially avoid taking any hits over that period.

                                                                1. Stejson
                                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                  • 1 Year
                                                                  9 days, 50 mins ago

                                                                  Seems a reasonable assertion. Would you start the season on -30 if you could have 3 wildcards?

                                                                  1. ManUnitedComeBack
                                                                    • 3 Years
                                                                    9 days, 37 mins ago

                                                                    Easily, -30 is basically

                                                                    1. ManUnitedComeBack
                                                                      • 3 Years
                                                                      9 days, 36 mins ago

                                                                      Easily, -30 is basically

                                                                  2. Major League Shocker
                                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                    8 days, 23 hours ago

                                                                    Maybe. The more wildcards you give out, probably the less valuable each one is, so a third one might not be as valuable. But I would definitely prefer the status quo over starting on +30 with only 1 WC.

                                                              3. Zogzeg
                                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                • 8 Years
                                                                9 days, 56 mins ago

                                                                I tend to do an early WC most seasons.
                                                                I can always take a 20pt hit around Christmas if I feel it's worth it.
                                                                There are some seasons when I'm happy with my team at that time of year, so I would have 'banked' the -20 and end up using the WC to tinker around the edges of my squad.

                                                                Many ways to play the game though.

                                                                1. Stejson
                                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                  • 1 Year
                                                                  9 days, 49 mins ago

                                                                  Indeed indeed, many a way to play.

                                                            6. Pep Roulette
                                                              • 2 Years
                                                              9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                              Mount to Pulisic/Willian for -4?

                                                              1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                                                                • 2 Years
                                                                9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                                Willian's last hurrah

                                                              2. Tonyawesome69
                                                                • 1 Year
                                                                9 days, 51 mins ago

                                                                I don't think it's worth it for a hit

                                                            7. NoSalah’d
                                                                9 days, 1 hour ago

                                                                What do you guys think of these two FH drafts?
                                                                DDG, 3.9m
                                                                TAA, Doherty, Azpi, Lascelles, 3.9m
                                                                Salah, Mane, Mahrez, Foden, Martial
                                                                Maupay, Rashford, 4.2m

                                                                OR

                                                                DDG, 3.9m
                                                                VVD, TAA, Doherty, Lascelles, 3.9m
                                                                Mane, KDB, Martial, Foden, Pulisic
                                                                Jesus, Rashford, 4.2m

                                                                1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                                                                  • 2 Years
                                                                  9 days, 59 mins ago

                                                                  The one with Kevin and without Maupay

                                                                  1. NoSalah’d
                                                                      9 days, 58 mins ago

                                                                      Yeah, I prefer that one. Not keen on targeting the first match of the GW, as they have been awful so far and Norwich did alright against Man U

                                                                  2. Tonyawesome69
                                                                    • 1 Year
                                                                    9 days, 52 mins ago

                                                                    Team 2

                                                                2. Wolves Ay We
                                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                  • 4 Years
                                                                  9 days, 56 mins ago

                                                                  DDG, Martin
                                                                  TAA, Doherty, Fernandez, Kiko, Simpson
                                                                  KDB, Son, Salah. Fernandes, Saka
                                                                  Jimenez, Rashford, DCL

                                                                  2 FT's
                                                                  Son--> Mahrez
                                                                  Saka--> Foden

                                                                  Worth it? Would have:

                                                                  DDG, Martin
                                                                  TAA, Doherty, Fernandez, Kiko, Simpson
                                                                  KDB, Salah. Fernandes, Mahrez, Foden
                                                                  Jimenez, Rashford, DCL

                                                                  1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                                                                    • 2 Years
                                                                    9 days, 53 mins ago

                                                                    You already had me at Son > Mahrez.

                                                                    Definitely

                                                                  2. Tonyawesome69
                                                                    • 1 Year
                                                                    9 days, 53 mins ago

                                                                    See how Son plays on Thurs, transfers look good

                                                                3. JohnRoss
                                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                  • 9 Years
                                                                  9 days, 52 mins ago

                                                                  So given they both have decent fixtures to season end, would you prefer Mahrez or Bruno?

                                                                  Mahrez more explosive but Bruno is no slouch and should see more minutes...

                                                                  But those city fixtures...

                                                                  1. Wolves Ay We
                                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                    • 4 Years
                                                                    9 days, 49 mins ago

                                                                    What about those waves of Cty attacks? Mouth watering.

                                                                    1. JohnRoss
                                                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                      • 9 Years
                                                                      9 days, 43 mins ago

                                                                      I know... Stuff of wet dreams

                                                                      1. Wolves Ay We
                                                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                        • 4 Years
                                                                        9 days, 39 mins ago

                                                                        You could summarise it as - Stuff of bodily fluids, 🙂

                                                                  2. Corgzzzz
                                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                    • 4 Years
                                                                    9 days, 42 mins ago

                                                                    Cant help to much other than to say I have both........

                                                                4. Jacky boy
                                                                  • 4 Years
                                                                  9 days, 49 mins ago

                                                                  madness ? or reasonable ?

                                                                  bruno + jesus + ngakia(4.0) to nketia + mane + maguire for -4
                                                                  surely when all matches are done.

                                                                  full team:

                                                                  patricio
                                                                  VVD Boly Saiss
                                                                  Salah KDB Bruno Martial
                                                                  Jesus Rashford DCL

                                                                  4.0 guendouzi Schletto Ngakia

                                                                  2 FT
                                                                  0.0 ITB

                                                                  1. Tonyawesome69
                                                                    • 1 Year
                                                                    9 days, 46 mins ago

                                                                    I think the team is fine as it is but if you want Salah and Mane then go for it.

                                                                    1. Jacky boy
                                                                      • 4 Years
                                                                      9 days, 39 mins ago

                                                                      thanks. don't know how to use 2 fts.

                                                                      1. Tonyawesome69
                                                                        • 1 Year
                                                                        9 days, 25 mins ago

                                                                        If you really want to use the fts then maybe Bruno to Foden and upgrade bench fodder defender to AWB

                                                                5. Bocaginge
                                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                  • 4 Years
                                                                  9 days, 47 mins ago

                                                                  I’m looking for that differential in my mini league to make a jump. Giroud or Pukki? Playing one up top with Mane, Salah, Bruno, Martial and Son in mid

                                                                  1. Tonyawesome69
                                                                    • 1 Year
                                                                    9 days, 44 mins ago

                                                                    If I had to pick then Giroud

                                                                  2. Trophé Mourinho
                                                                      9 days, 43 mins ago

                                                                      Giroud has always served me pretty well. Not sure I’d pick either of those tho. How about Ings, most people have ditched him, his fixtures aren’t nice but he is still doing good

                                                                      1. Bocaginge
                                                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                        • 4 Years
                                                                        9 days, 39 mins ago

                                                                        It just for my free hit in Gw32+ I can see Ings scoring against City but potential for a higher return from the other two. Norwich need goals and you’d like to think Pukki would be the man. Giroud has been on a bit of form the last couple weeks too though.

                                                                  3. Who are all Lukakus
                                                                    • 3 Years
                                                                    9 days, 45 mins ago

                                                                    Points prediction tonight?
                                                                    Mine:
                                                                    DDG 6
                                                                    Maguire 15 AWB 7
                                                                    Bruno 8 Martial 3
                                                                    Rashford 2
                                                                    You know what players I have 😉

                                                                    1. Wolves Ay We
                                                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                      • 4 Years
                                                                      9 days, 42 mins ago

                                                                      DDG 2
                                                                      Fernandes 1
                                                                      Rashford 2

                                                                      I have all 3. 🙁

                                                                      😀

                                                                    2. _sidney_will
                                                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                      • 3 Years
                                                                      9 days, 22 mins ago

                                                                      Would love a Maguire 15 pointer, was painful seeing AWB get 11 last week!

                                                                  4. JJeyy
                                                                    • 4 Years
                                                                    9 days, 44 mins ago

                                                                    10% of the top10k have Bruno, Rash, Martial.

                                                                    1. internal error
                                                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                      • 7 Years
                                                                      9 days, 42 mins ago

                                                                      As in all 3?

                                                                    2. Wolves Ay We
                                                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                      • 4 Years
                                                                      9 days, 41 mins ago

                                                                      90% don't. That's the stat I find most interesting.

                                                                    3. Trophé Mourinho
                                                                        9 days, 37 mins ago

                                                                        3 Man U attackers is just bad value imo. 2 and a defender or Ddg is a great deal. For 3 attackers going to need big scores every week really, the only time I remember this being a constant good thing is Spurs - Kane, Ali, Eriksen. And even if Man U are playing good at the moment they certainly don’t have the form that Spurs team did

                                                                        1. Wolves Ay We
                                                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                          • 4 Years
                                                                          9 days, 36 mins ago

                                                                          But which 2 attackers?

                                                                          1. Trophé Mourinho
                                                                              9 days, 35 mins ago

                                                                              Tricky yea, but I like Martial and Rashford personally. The goal scorers

                                                                          2. internal error
                                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                            • 7 Years
                                                                            9 days, 33 mins ago

                                                                            Patricio can match Ddg. Pope might even do better than DDG for the remainder of the season so DDG's value is not so important.

                                                                          3. Tonyawesome69
                                                                            • 1 Year
                                                                            9 days, 28 mins ago

                                                                            I agree with this, Rashford, Martial and AWB for me

                                                                          4. PrettyDick
                                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                            • 2 Years
                                                                            9 days, 20 mins ago

                                                                            You must have skipped the year Salah, Coutinho, Firmino and Mané played together 😉 or Suarez, Sturridge, Stevie, Coutinho, Sterling.

                                                                            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                              • 10 Years
                                                                              9 days, 15 mins ago

                                                                              Lampard, Drogba, Malouda too

                                                                              1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                                                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                                • 10 Years
                                                                                9 days, 7 mins ago

                                                                                Ronaldo, Rooney, Tevez did ok in 07/08

                                                                                Pretty sure Tevez & Adebayor were joined by one of Bellamy/Petrov at times for CIty in the same season a few years back

                                                                                Plus, with 3 man utd attackers from here out you dont need big scores every week - you only need big scores in 3 or 4 of:

                                                                                BOU, avl, SOU, cry, WHU, lei

                                                                                So whilst it's deifnitely not commonly effective - it can be lucrative at times, and with Pogba, Bruno, Martial OOP & Rashford, plus those fixtures - this couldpossibly be one of those rare times

                                                                                That being said I prefer AWB + Martial Rashford myself - Utd's defence is extremely statistically impressive of late, AWB in particular has been churning out points pretty consistently for about 6-10 GW's now

                                                                          5. Long ago I drew a walrus
                                                                            • 9 Years
                                                                            9 days, 5 mins ago

                                                                            The point of having all 3 is that if UTD get anything from their attack it's going to be from 1 or 2 of them, so you're almost 100% covered. If you only have 2 then it's hard to determine which 2, e.g. it was Rashford and Martial vs SHU but Bruno all the times before so you'll miss out.

                                                                        2. g40steve
                                                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                          • 2 Years
                                                                          9 days, 29 mins ago

                                                                          Only way to roll

                                                                      • Captain_Shirokov
                                                                        • 1 Year
                                                                        9 days, 38 mins ago

                                                                        People with FH left, what's the plan?

                                                                        1. Trophé Mourinho
                                                                            9 days, 36 mins ago

                                                                            Free hitting for 34 when all the big teams have gash opponents. Will load up on them, seen quite a few people saying 38 but I’m not doing that. 33 has not bad fixtures either tbh but I prefer 34

                                                                            1. PrettyDick
                                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                              • 2 Years
                                                                              9 days, 31 mins ago

                                                                              Not afraid of Liverpool and City rotation for that GW with both of them having played on the 2nd and the 5th before and with 'nothing to play for' ? Or are you rather targeting Spurs and Man U perhaps?

                                                                              1. Trophé Mourinho
                                                                                  9 days, 29 mins ago

                                                                                  Well cash is the problem with those teams, Man U triple for sure. 3 from pool, 2 from City. 2 From Spurs I think.

                                                                                  1. PrettyDick
                                                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                                    • 2 Years
                                                                                    9 days, 22 mins ago

                                                                                    Yeah, fair point. Or you could get away with a few cheaper options (Foden, Gomez, Origi maybe even perhaps as an 8th attacker depending on your set-up and what you see from previous games). I guess time will tell. Best of luck with your FH whenever you play it

                                                                            2. Wolves Ay We
                                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                              • 4 Years
                                                                              9 days, 35 mins ago

                                                                              38, 38, 38

                                                                              Reckon 90% of FH owners doing this,

                                                                            3. drughi
                                                                              • 10 Years
                                                                              9 days, 31 mins ago

                                                                              gw 38 for some fun

                                                                          • HaffNanner
                                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                            • 2 Years
                                                                            9 days, 37 mins ago

                                                                            Auba, Jota, Mooy > Rashford, Nketiah, Mahrez/Martial for (-4)?
                                                                            Would shift to a 3-5-2

                                                                            Current team:

                                                                            Henderson (McCarthy)
                                                                            TAA Doherty Aurier (Stephens Lascelles)
                                                                            Salah KDB Fernandes Barnes (Mooy)
                                                                            Auba Jimenez Jota

                                                                            1. Wolves Ay We
                                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                              • 4 Years
                                                                              9 days, 35 mins ago

                                                                              Yes

                                                                            2. Tonyawesome69
                                                                              • 1 Year
                                                                              9 days, 30 mins ago

                                                                              yes

                                                                            3. HaffNanner
                                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                              • 2 Years
                                                                              9 days, 29 mins ago

                                                                              cheers both

                                                                            4. PrettyDick
                                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                              • 2 Years
                                                                              9 days, 24 mins ago

                                                                              Yes and no, for me. This GW I'd do Auba -- > Rashford and hold the other transfer and do the other two for free the next GW for two reasons:

                                                                              I KNOW jota is just awful, but so i Arsenal's defence and I'd fancy *any* player to having a decent chance of getting a brace against them. (Question is if he still starts ofc)

                                                                              Second: (this is if you go with Mahrez) It will give you one more GW of info of which midfielder you should go for from City. Will Mahrez start again?

                                                                              And of course saving a hit in the process

                                                                              1. HaffNanner
                                                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                                • 2 Years
                                                                                9 days, 14 mins ago

                                                                                Didn't think about that, thanks for the idea

                                                                          • TeddiPonza
                                                                            • 9 Years
                                                                            9 days, 32 mins ago

                                                                            What changes would you make?

                                                                            Martinez (Martin)
                                                                            TAA Doherty CTaylor (Saiss Lascelles)
                                                                            KdB Salah Son Bruno (Guendouzi)
                                                                            DCL Jimi Rash

                                                                            0,0m in bank and 2FT

                                                                            Thanks

                                                                            1. Tonyawesome69
                                                                              • 1 Year
                                                                              9 days, 30 mins ago

                                                                              With 0itb and no urgent changesl I would burn the ft

                                                                            2. PrettyDick
                                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                              • 2 Years
                                                                              9 days, 29 mins ago

                                                                              Difficult with almost all the games still left but if everything stays as it is now I'd do Son - Martial and save the other FT

                                                                            3. Bobby Digital
                                                                              • 2 Years
                                                                              9 days, 24 mins ago

                                                                              Wait for the GW to end and make a decision then. Team is template and many are in a similar pickle.