Spot the Differential

FPL differential Antonio has form and fixtures heading into Gameweek 34+

Once again differentials had a lot of success in Gameweek 33+.

Of the 14 players who registered 10 points or more, seven had an ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Leandro Trossard (£5.8m), Ross Barkley (£5.6m) and James Tarkowski (£5.2m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

There’s no shortage of differential candidates to consider this week, either, and this time we’re focusing on three low-owned picks who we like the look of for Gameweek 34+ and beyond.

Michail Antonio

  • FPL ownership: 1.0%
  • Price: £6.9m
  • GW34+ – 38+ fixtures: BUR | nor | WAT | mun | AVL

We’ve been big on Michail Antonio (£6.9m) for a while now, having included him in Spot the Differential ahead of Gameweek 28.

Now, having emerged from the restart as one of the league’s form players, we think he’s worth talking about again.

Since Gameweek 30+, Antonio leads the way amongst midfielders for shots in the box, whilst his three big chances is only bettered by Anthony Martial (£8.3m) and Sadio Mané (£12.4m). The expected data is also encouraging – the versatile forward sits top for xG (2.88) and xGI (4.03).

At Newcastle United on Sunday, Antonio was in the right place at the right time when another of our column favourites, Jarrod Bowen (£6.4m), squared it across the face of the goal. It was the former Nottingham Forest forward’s fourth goal of the season and the first time he’s scored in back-to-back games since April 2019.

With a point gained at St James’ Park, West Ham United are edging closer to Premier League safety and are starting to pick up some form with four points in their last two games. Interestingly, only six sides have registered more big chances than the Hammers since the restart, with two of them (Manchester City and Arsenal) playing an additional game.

With matches against Burnley, Norwich City and Watford up next, you’d expect the club to now push further clear of the drop zone.

Antonio has thrived as a lone forward for West Ham this season and is an in-form differential ready for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

Benjamin Mendy

  • FPL ownership: 1.5%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW34+ – 38+ fixtures: NEW | bha | BOU | wat | NOR

Having started four matches for Manchester City in all competitions since the restart, including the last three in a row, Benjamin Mendy (£5.5m) was rested in Gameweek 33+, and should be raring to go when Newcastle visit the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.

Mendy’s time at City has been hampered by a persistent knee injury, but he has recently started showing flashes of his best form, providing width and energy on his flank.

Against Liverpool in Gameweek 32+, the French defender was superb. In fact, no player from either side could match his 37 opposition half touches, whilst he also provided several enticing crosses for his teammates.

Man City will be looking for a reaction against the Magpies, having now lost three consecutive away league games, and will want to secure a Champions League place for next season as soon as possible – providing the club are successful in their appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Mendy, owned by just 1.5% of managers, adds creativity to Guardiola’s team and has perhaps been a little unfortunate to earn just two assists this season. With some promising fixtures to come, Mendy has the potential to earn points at both ends of the pitch and could be an effective differential for the run-in.

Ismaïla Sarr

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £6.1m
  • GW34+ – 38+ fixtures: NOR | NEW | whu | MCI | ars

Ismaïla Sarr’s (£6.1m) inclusion in this column is all about fixtures, rather than form.

Defeats against Burnley, Southampton and Chelsea have left Watford in a precarious position, just one point above the relegation zone, whilst they’ve found the back of the net on just two occasions since the restart.

Now, they have back-to-back home games, against Norwich and Newcastle, which will surely define their season.

It really does feel like it’s all or nothing for the Hornets now, and if they are to come good, Senegal winger Sarr will probably be central to it.

Since Nigel Pearson took charge back in Gameweek 17, Sarr has eight goal contributions in 14 appearances, which is a good return for a debut Premier League campaign in a struggling side, and ranks second amongst teammates for shots in the box and big chances over that period.

This is a player who has shown he has big performances in his locker. He was pivotal in ending Liverpool’s unbeaten run in February by scoring two goals and providing an assist in his side’s 3-0 win, and also contributed a goal and assist in Watford’s 2-0 victory over Manchester United back in December.

If Sarr can return to the kind of form he showed before the season was suspended, Watford have a chance of Premier League survival, whilst FPL managers have the opportunity to purchase a potentially explosive differential.

It just depends on which type of FPL manager you are: form or fixtures?

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 33+

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624 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ruinenlust
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Sterling has started 4 matches in 10 days. Are we sure that he will start against Newcastle?

    1. Holmes
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Tough to say, early substitution Vs Southampton plus Jesus playing full game should help

    2. jtreble
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      I suspect KDB, Foden, Mendy, Walker and Ederson have a very good chance of starting.

  2. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Anyone know if Haller fur back soon and is this a threat to Antonio?

    1. Holmes
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Won't be a threat, will play alongside him

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      I honestly think Haller might struggle to get back in right now.

      The new setup with Fornals, Lanzini, Bowen and Antonio seems to be working.

      1. FPL Bielsa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        Very interesting article as it mirrors my thoughts on my team. I’ve sold Lunstram this week for Walker (nearly went Mendy but in the end thought Walker safer for more starts) both rested for Saints so I expect both will start this week.

        I have Sarr and giving him this week then straight swap to Antonio who I’ve been watching since restart and looks great value to me with those fixtures.

    3. Rinseboy
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      How's your team coming along mate?

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        No changes yet- I do need differential and will move out Salah but not sure yet who to- Sterling and captain still top of list!

        1. Rinseboy
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 4 days ago

          could be gold! Salah feels like he is becoming a differential to be honest

  3. Powers106
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Antonio is a good differential, but I'm more intrigued by Soucek, especially at 4.8

    1. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Good shout that, Soucek looks a threat from set-plays.

      1. Christina.
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        Soucek could be gold next season to balance the budget

    2. jtreble
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Agree.

  4. as33
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Patricio
    TAA, Lascelles, Basham, Robinson,Williams
    KDB, Son, Mane, Fernandes, Luiz
    Rashi, Jimmi, DCL
    Moves would b: DCL >Greenwood and Williams>Jonny

  5. BobbyDoesNotLook
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    New idea regarding City and Man United spots:

    1) Mendy & Martial
    2) Awb & Mahrez

    1. Kuzser
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      1 is riskier, but depends who else you have from those teams?

    2. DAVESAVES
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      1

    3. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Bruno, KDB, Foden and Greenwood at the moment.

      1. BobbyDoesNotLook
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        I would say that Mahrez is also quite risky choice due to the playtime issues but taking that chance first time this season is tempting. Only really bad thing about Pep roulette in midfield is that almost always they get some minutes and 1-pointers which is much worse than the 0-pointers at this point when most of us have ok benches. If I knew Mahrez would start or get 0 minutes I would easily go for him since I have now quite a good bench.

        1. Kuzser
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 4 days ago

          have some fun then and enjoy the game, go A

          1. BobbyDoesNotLook
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 4 days ago

            Thanks mate.

  6. Kuzser
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Is anything worth a hit here?
    0.3 itb.
    1) gtg
    2) Lund-> Kiko or any 4.9def and play him instead of Baldock

    Krul
    TAA - Doherty - Baldock
    KdB(C) - Fernandes - Martial-Mahrez - Sarr
    Rashford - Jimenez

    1. Prison Mike
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Gtg, wouldn’t take a hit

  7. Prison Mike
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Best move(s) this week?

    A) Salah -> Mahrez

    B) Salah & Nketiah -> Foden & Kane (-4)

    C) Save FT

    1. Kuzser
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      A

    2. Bruno Commando
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      C

    3. Soto Ayam
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 4 days ago

      C

  8. DENZ
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    A) Auba > Jesus
    B) Save

    Pope
    TAA VVD Egan
    Salah KDB Bruno Mahrez
    Auba Jiminez Greenwood
    (Button, JackRob, Lascelles, Hayden)

    1. Bruno Commando
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      A

    2. IRBOX ⚽
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      B. Jesus likely benched

      1. DENZ
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        Who else could play his position?

        1. IRBOX ⚽
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 4 days ago

          Sterling, Bernardo have both played as false nine for City

    3. DENZ
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      0 itb, 1 FT

    4. Limbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Hold.

    5. DENZ
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Thanks all

  9. Smokey_Lowkey
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Pick one to bench from:

    A) Foden
    B) DCL
    C) Jimenez

    1. Bruno Commando
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      C

    2. Limbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      No.

    3. Dybala10
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      I'm benching DCL

  10. Bruno Commando
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Bench 1:
    1) Jimi
    2) Egan
    3) Saiss

    1. Smokey_Lowkey
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Saiss - Just about!

  11. Tmel
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    KDB or Bruno captain?

    1. Oggle22
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Same dilemma behind in my ML by 13 points hell defo captain a united player play it safe or go for it

    2. DENZ
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      I'm going with KDB, only because he's playing home

  12. EWH2020
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Start who?

    a) Martinez
    b) McCarthy

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      B

    2. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      b

  13. Iceball
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    DDG
    TAA Azpi Doherty Aurier
    KDB(C) Salah Bruno(V) Mahrez Foden
    Greenwood
    Button Jimenez Nketiah Lascelles
    GTG?

    1. Soto Ayam
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Nice

  14. Pickle juice
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Is Mahrez nailed to start ????????????

    1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Absolutely not

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      No one is nailed there but he should do

    3. Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Pep doesn't use nails.

      1. Pickle juice
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        screws ?

  15. Miguel Sanchez
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Risky benching Jimenez but need to do something different, GTG?

    McCarthy
    TAA Doherty Maguire Aurier
    KDB (c) Mahrez Bruno Martial Pulisic
    Ings

    Jimenez DCL Fernandez

    Money in the bank for Vardy next GW

  16. Wolves Ay We
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Seriously considering GW36 instead of GW38 for the Free Hit. What are the Pros and Cons?

  17. migas2k7
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Mendy to keep is place for more than a gw?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Hard to say

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Always a risk with anyone at City aside from Ederson, but he's started four of the last six since the restart, and Zinchenko didn't exactly cover himself in glory at Southampton.

  18. Winter_is_coming
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Have next team for BB this gameweek, looks solid? Running out of ideas how to beat rival (have 12 points lead, but he have a FH left for 38)

    Foster - Henderson
    Stevens - Boly - Azpilicueta - Digne - AWB
    Bruno - Son - Mahrez - Foden - KDB (c)
    Jimenez - DCL - Rashford

  19. Chelsea91
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Kdb or Bruno for captain ?

    1. Limbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      KDB edges it for me. Newcastle at home is plum, regardless of their 'new formation'.

      1. Chelsea91
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 4 days ago

        thanks mate

  20. EWH2020
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    One week punt.

    A) Salah to Sterling
    B) Salah to Foden

    Already own Mahrez and KDB

  21. nevins84
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Benching headache.... Which 2 do I bench

    A)Doherty
    B)DCL
    C)Traore
    D)Saka
    E)Aurier
    F)Greenwood

    1. Soto Ayam
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 4 days ago

      B, c

    2. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      cd

  22. Pickle juice
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    got to be foden

  23. Hybrid.power
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Best defender for 5.3 or less?

    1. caldracula
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Aurier or Magurie

    2. Hybrid.power
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      I'm thinking Aurier

    3. Chelsea91
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Aurier

      1. Hybrid.power
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        Yep, you're right.

  24. caldracula
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    Pope
    TAA Doherty Stevens
    Salah Sterling KBD Fernandes
    Jimenez DCL Greenwood

    Button, Saka, Fernandez, Hanley.

    Which do you think is the best upgrade

    A) DCL > Ings
    B) Fernandez > Wan-Bissaka (Bench Stevens)
    C) Saka to Foden (Bench DCL and then have a possible headache most weeks or get lucky with rotation)

    Thanks

  25. popey
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    2ft 1.2 ITB

    Inability to pick captains have lost me ground in ML despite decent WC a few weeks ago

    Foster
    Doherty, Saiss, Aurier (lascelles, Ngakia)
    KdB, Mahrez, Martial, Bruno, Salah
    Rash, Jimi (Connolly)

    Was hoping for more from Kane last night so I could do A, now thinking B due to bench being terrible

    a) Rash/Jimi > Greenwood/Kane for free and captain Kane (chasing 37pts in ML)
    b) Lascelles > Mendy for free and bench Saiss

  26. lordkippe
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 4 days ago

    2 GWs slight below the 10k average now. Need to get my captaincy right. 1 FT an 2.3 ITB. I know I should be getting KDB, but not keen on getting rid of Mahrez or Salah I think. And would be much more fun to use the ft to get someone differente. Thoughts ?

    Martinez ( Button )

    TAA - Maguire - Doherty ( Kiko, Lascelles )

    Salah - Mahrez - Fernandes - Pulisic ( Guendouzi )

    Rashford - Jimenez - DCL

    A : Save FT
    B : Salah > KDB
    C : Mahrez > KDB
    D : Guendouzi > Foden
    E : Salah > Sterling
    F : Other suggestions ?

    1. lordkippe
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      or ar really risky one : Salah > Sterling & Fernandes > KDB for a hit :O

    2. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      d and bench DCL. Captain Salah, vc Bruno

    3. Chelsea91
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 4 days ago

      DCL to Greenwood

    4. yosim
        1 month, 4 days ago

        KDB can hurt you if you don't have him, that's the dilemma

    5. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Who to bench:

      1) Ings (eve)
      2) Vardy (ars)
      3) Greenwood (avl)
      4) Foden (NEW)

      1. Chelsea91
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 4 days ago

        Ings

      2. lordkippe
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        Greenwood

    6. Mikei
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      What is the best time for FH and TC?
      Henderson (Leno)
      Digne TAA Doherty (Lascelles, Cathcart)
      KdB Bruno Martial Saka (Cantwell)
      Auba Jimenéz Rashford

      Thank you.

      1. Chelsea91
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 4 days ago

        TC on 36 and FH on 38 or TC on 38 and FH on 36

      2. BobbyDoesNotLook
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 4 days ago

        I would TC KDB this week. Last one or two weeks might be harder to predict regarding XIs and KDB just rested and fixture is good.

    7. Hybrid.power
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Play Martinez or Patricio? I'm playing Doherty and playing double Wolves defense bit me last week.

    8. Saulus_maximus
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 4 days ago

      Now you've told everyone my differential 🙁 . Pope > Ederson for a hit? Don't usually take hits but over the remaining fixtures it should pay off...