Scout Notes

Free-flowing Liverpool display bodes well for Newcastle trip

Liverpool 5-3 Chelsea

  • Goals: Naby Keïta (£5.8m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.7m), Georginio Wijnaldum (£5.4m), Roberto Firmino (£9.3m), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (£6.1m) | Olivier Giroud (£6.7m), Tammy Abraham (£7.4m), Christian Pulisic (£7.4m)
  • Assists: Sadio Mané (£12.2m), Mohamed Salah (£12.5m), Alexander-Arnold, Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) | Willian (£7.3m), Pulisic, Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.1m)
  • Bonus Points: Alexander-Arnold x3, Firmino x2, Robertson x1

Fantasy Premier League managers were treated to a preview of Gameweek 38+ as the goals flowed in Liverpool’s 5-3 win over Chelsea on Wednesday evening. 

It was a night where each side’s defences went on holiday and the floodgates opened up, usually the hallmark of the last day of the season.

On the basis of this performance, there will be plenty of interest in Liverpool attackers as they travel to Newcastle on Sunday, but Fantasy managers may have to ask some important questions as they prepare for the closing weekend of 2019/20.

Firstly, for all the Reds’ free-flowing football, which could punish an injury-stricken Magpies squad, they will be travelling to St. James’ Park in the wake of celebrating lifting the Premier League trophy. The last time they played after a big party they were soundly beaten 4-0 by Manchester City. While Newcastle are unlikely to be as punishing as Pep Guardiola’s men, there are sure to be concerns of a Liverpool performance akin to that defeat on Sunday…

But provided Jurgen Klopp can encourage a stronger focus on the next match than we saw with that heavy Etihad loss, there were a lot of encouraging signs about his attackers against Chelsea.

Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) is sure to go into Gameweek 38+ with a bee under his bonnet after he was unfortunate to miss out on a goal for the third match in a row. The Egyptian was, as ever, the most threatening Liverpool forward in terms of shots produced and chances created for him, while Sadio Mané (£12.2m) did not shoot once.

Despite a heavy involvement in the regular forays into Chelsea’s territory, Salah could muster only an assist for Georginio Wijnaldum’s (£5.4m) first-half goal. And when the premium midfielder was replaced by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (£6.1m) in the 79th minute, he was positively thunder-faced.

With just one match left of the season, Salah sits four goals behind Jamie Vardy (£9.7m) in the race for the Premier League Golden Boot. While clinching the award seems unlikely at this point, it will almost certainly be on the Egyptian’s mind on the final weekend of the campaign. If Liverpool can replicate the free-flowing display of Wednesday night, and Salah keeps up his involvement in those attacks, a big haul is hardly off the cards. He may have to work on his finishing in the next few days though, especially after spooning a golden chance wide in the second-half when he was clear through on goal.

After recording just one attacking return between Gameweeks 30+ and 36+, Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.7m) was back to his scintillating best against Chelsea, becoming the first defender of the season to go past the 200-point barrier. Currently sat on 209 for the campaign, he is just five points off breaking the record for most points in a season for a defender, set last year by colleague Andrew Robertson (£7.0m).

Against Chelsea, the right-back struck home a routine direct free-kick in the first half before throwing up a trademark cross in the second, nodded home by Roberto Firmino (£9.3m). Both of those events bode well for a Gameweek 38+ meeting with Newcastle, the Magpies sitting inside the bottom three for headed goal attempts allowed and set-play attempts conceded since the Premier League restart.

Those statistics may also be of a benefit to Robertson who continues to have a hand in Liverpool corners, nearly earning an assist for a Salah goal in the second half against Chelsea, a previous corner also leading to Wijnaldum’s first-half strike. The left-back got the attacking return his crosses deserved in the 84th minute when his ball sailed through the middle of the Chelsea defence to be turned in by Oxlade-Chamberlain. That made for Robertson’s fourth assist of the restart period, double the number recorded by Alexander-Arnold.

Obviously, the Reds were helped by continual issues with Chelsea’s defence. They have now gone an entire Premier League campaign with just one clean sheet on the road and only four sides have conceded more goals from set pieces than Frank Lampard’s men. While they have managed seven clean sheets at home, their susceptibility to corners may convince owners of Willy Boly (£4.9m) or Romain Saïss (£4.8m) to start them for Gameweek 38+. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s general issues with defending, made worse by continued poor performances from Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.4m), is sure to be enough evidence to hold onto Raúl Jiménez (£8.1m) for one last hurrah.

That said, as much as Chelsea struggled at the back, they offered plenty of attacking threat at Anfield. Liverpool’s defence has not been at its best since the restart, keeping just three of their 15 clean sheets since Gameweek 30+, but owners of Christian Pulisic (£7.4m) should feel particularly encouraged ahead of the final round of fixtures. 

Despite only playing 31 minutes, the American managed a goal and assist for a nine-point score. During this time on the pitch, Pulisic looked unplayable, exploiting the space behind Liverpool’s defence to cross for Tammy Abraham (£7.4m) to tap-in and net an excellent swivelled finish of his own. Whether he will get as much of freedom against a compact Wolves side remains to be seen, but the mid-priced midfielder has now delivered attacking returns in all but one match since the Premier League restart, averaging 6.8 points per game during that period.

Liverpool XI (4-3-3): Alisson; Robertson, van Dijk, Gomez, Alexander-Arnold; Wijnaldum (Milner 66’), Fabinho, Keïta (C Jones 66’); Mané (Origi 87’), Firmino (Minamino 87’), Salah (Oxlade-Chamberlain 79’).

Chelsea XI (3-4-3): Kepa; Rüdiger, Zouma, Azpilicueta; Alonso (Emerson 88’), Kovačić, Jorginho, R James; Mount (Pulisic 58’), Giroud (Abraham 58’), Willian (Hudson-Odoi 58’).

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2,555 Comments Post a Comment
  1. LLoris
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 29 days ago

    What transfer should I make?
    A) Foster to Pope
    B) Saiss to Tarkowski
    C) Doherty to Robo

  2. Hitmonlee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 29 days ago

    I’m most tempted to do A but it could be a trap?

    A) KDB > Sterling (c)
    B) Saiss > Robbo (KDB c)

    Current team:
    ———————Pope—————————
    —-TAA———-Saiss———Tarkowski——
    —Salah—KDB—Bruno—Martial—Pulisic—
    ————Greenwood—-Jesus————-

    Thanks

    1. Zenith UK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Saiss out, purely because Chelsea are going to throw everything at Wolves and they're not really playing for anything - plus he was left out last game

  3. Zenith UK
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    Bottomed: Time to talk money...

    ML1 - 1st: £300, 2nd: £150, 3rd: £80

    1st - 2208 (has TC) with:
    Pope* (Button)
    Trent, AWB, Fernandez* (Taylor, Saiss)
    Salah*, KDB, Bruno, Foden, Willian*
    Vardy*, Ings, (Jimi)

    2nd (me) - 2178 with:
    McCarthy (Patricio)
    Trent, Cresswell, AWB (Doherty, Egan)
    Mane, KDB, Bruno, Foden, Antonio
    Ings, Greenwood (Jimi)

    3rd - 2160 (has TC) with:
    Henderson* (McCarthy)
    Robbo*, Doherty, Aurier*, Baldock* (Otamendi*)
    KDB, Dilva*, Martial*, Traore, (Mount)
    Auba*, Jimi (Ayew*)

    I'm dead right?
    2FTs and 0.2 ITB.
    Was thinking AWB, Doherty & Jimi > Pieters, Bardsley & Kane/Auba

    Any other thoughts/suggestions welcomed.

    1. Sandesh_
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Mane to sterling??

      1. Zenith UK
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        I started to contemplate this after I posted!
        Along with Jimi & Doherty (total -4) to bring in Kane and bench fodder (Tanganga)

        1. Barnes Owl
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          You'll be hurting if Mane scores but sterling has such a high ceiling and along with Kane you could really give yourself a shot. Who do you think they will TC and who will you C?

          1. Zenith UK
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            I've been waiting for Mane to bang in the past few weeks and it's cost me Sterling's hauls, 0,2,8,5 in his last four, not impressive for 12M player.

            I'd probably Capt Kane. No idea who they're both going to TC.

            I'm also leading a second ML by 22 points and they have Sterling so that would be good cover!

    2. Bob Vrabkab
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      I'm thinking can I join this league next season?

      Also, Mane to Sterling and get a better keeper

      1. Zenith UK
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        Unfortunately it's a work money league.
        Not wasting a transfer on GK purely because of the goalscoring nature of this GW.

  4. Old Gregg
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 29 days ago

    FH 38.
    Too much in defence?.
    Get Auba?.

    Martinez
    Taa-Aurier-Digne
    Dilva-Sterling-Salah-Mahrez
    Kane-Ings-Greenwood

    1. Ëð
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 29 days ago

      If you could redistribute a bit I'd probably try and push more money up top. Traditionally a very high scoring GW with few cleansheets.

  5. Vazza
      2 months, 29 days ago

      Bit Silly?

      Bruno & Rashford --> Antonio & Kane (-4)

      1. Ëð
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        I think that could pay off

      2. LOLarov
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 29 days ago

        did you copy and paste my comment and change the Silva to Antonio?

        HAHA love you work

        1. Vazza
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Yes I did mate. Lol

            1. LOLarov
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              I like those subs lad, could really pay off

              1. Vazza
                  2 months, 29 days ago

                  Thanks mate. Basically I need to decide whether I do one of the following -

                  Doherty to VVD for free

                  Or

                  Bruno + Rashford to Antonio + Kane for a hit

                  Do you still think the second option is better out of the two? Thanks

                  1. LOLarov
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 28 days ago

                    yes

        2. maclrc
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          Any changes worth making for hits?

          Ederson
          TAA Doherty Tarkowski
          Salah Bruno Martial KdB Silva
          Jimmy Greenwood

          0 FT 0.9 ITB

          1. maclrc
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Worth noting I have TC active, currently on Dilva

          2. Ëð
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Not for hits I don't think, I'd be quite happy with that

          3. Shatner's Bassoon
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            I don’t think so no. Decisions done for the season then! Good luck!

        3. Ëð
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          What do you think of this FH team? Gone for Auba over Kane. No spare money.

          Martinez (3.9)
          Pieters, Branthwaite, Long (Lamptey, 3.9)
          Salah, Sterling (c), Dilva, Martial (Guendouzi)
          Auba, Jesus, Ings

          1. Shatner's Bassoon
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Looking at almost identical myself but I’m an xG fan + Auba gets utterly destroyed by Kane on that front.

            Also considering Ben Johnson over Branthwaite if Fredericks remains out.

            1. Ëð
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              Thanks, I have been struggling to decide between Auba and Kane!

              1. Shatner's Bassoon
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 29 days ago

                It’s not easy to be fair. Folks saying Watford have to “go for it” but their version of that will probably just be staying in the game as long as possible and then going for the winner from 70 onwards.
                I don’t know where people get this idea that teams who “have to win” will just be gung-ho from minute 1!

          2. Camzy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Kane much better imo.

            Palace are a worse team, have injuries, Kane in better form, better stats, better xG. Spurs also have had longer rest.

            1. Ëð
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              Thanks you've swayed me 🙂

        4. Shatner's Bassoon
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 29 days ago

          Special message for the (copious) managers ahead of me:

          Sell Salah! He missed some chances & is therefore a rubbish fraud.

          0% chance of a haul against Newcastle IMHO. Sell him!

          1. Vazza
              2 months, 29 days ago

              Does the same apply to Mane?

              1. Shatner's Bassoon
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 29 days ago

                Yeah although didn’t see him even get any chances to miss...

          2. matiakez
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Pope
            TAA Boly Egan
            Salah Bruno Martial KDB
            Greenwood Vardy Ings

            KDB and Bruno to Sterling and Dsilva or Bruno to Silva and Vardy to Kane??

          3. Sterling Archer
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Views on City questions I see popping up;

            Sterling is not going to win the golden boot
            They played on Tuesday, fatigue wont be an issue playing 5 days later
            Don't play in UCL till 7th August - no one needs rested, if anything they need minutes
            Will likely be 3/4 up by around 60 mins, expect all 5 subs to be used early

          4. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Doherty and Vardy to Digne and Kane with 2 FTs, GTG?

            McCarthy
            TAA Digne Aurier
            Sterling (c) D.Silva Bruno Martial Pulisic
            Kane Ings

            Krul Jimenez Maguire Fernandez

            1. Ëð
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              Yes I'd do those moves.

            2. Rinseboy
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              I assume Doherty funds Kane in?

              Great moves!

              1. Miguel Sanchez
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 29 days ago

                Yeah - can also go via Maguire to a 4.9

            3. ElliotJHP
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              G2G Miguel, great side

          5. Bubz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 29 days ago

            Dilva set to rise tonight? Means I have to decide whether its KDB or Jesus getting the chop today. Very difficult decision

            1. Rinseboy
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              think I slightly prefer Dilva over KDB

            2. Vazza
                2 months, 29 days ago

                I’d keep KDB if I were you.

              • St Pauli Walnuts
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 28 days ago

                Chop Jesus over KDB, for sure.

            3. Rinseboy
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              Leading ML by 20 for £500.

              Rival has - Ings,Jimi, KDB and Foden vs
              My - Vardy, Jesus, Sterling and Dilva.

              I have no FTs but would you take a hit for
              Vardy to Ings to cover? Or gamble on Kane or Auba? or stick?

              Pope
              TAA Doherty Aurier
              Sterling Dilva Martial Bruno Pullisic
              Vardy Jesus
              Martinez Greenwood Diop Fernandez.

              1. Toby Lerone
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 29 days ago

                Be tempted to do kane for vardy

              2. ritzyd
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 29 days ago

                Get Kane if for free

              3. GoingUpUpUp
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 28 days ago

                What change did you make for 38 so you don't have a FT this week?

                At 20 points, with a high scoring final week usual, captain choice will be more important and the bigger differential. I'd keep the 4 points in your pocket.

                Your front lines are a toss up and likely yours has more upside (Jesus v Norwich and Vardy at home for final game and hanging on for golden boot). Chelsea will defend deep against Wolves as they just need a draw and SU are always hard to break down.

                Midfield - I think Dilva will start ahead of Foden - they will substitute for each other. I also think both KDB and Raz will start. Personally I'm going for a Raz captaincy as he will likely be scoring on the end of the kdb assist.

                Good luck!!

            4. Toby Lerone
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              Which would you do when leading ML by 26points with 1.2itb?

              A) Jesus > Kane (have sterling and kdb)
              B) Doherty > Robertson (rivals have TAA and I have no liv)

              Thanks all

              1. GoingUpUpUp
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 28 days ago

                B

            5. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 29 days ago

              Last decision of the season now is Dilva or Sterling for Triple Cap??

              - Dilva surely guaranteed start, and has also gotten 90 minutes in his last 3 league starts
              - Sterling waaaaay more upside - but probably less minutes?

              I'm really thinking the aim of the game should be maximising minutes vs. that Norwich side... which would still lean towards Dilva...

              1. Ëð
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 29 days ago

                Hopefully might get some team news ahead of the game? If not I think you've got to go with Dilva, chance of Sterling not starting is very risky for a TC.

                1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  2 months, 29 days ago

                  Yeah thinking similar - teamsheet would be extremely helpful

                  But even if Sterling starts, what's to stop Pep hauling him off early again (even though he should have enough time to do damage mind you)

                  Something tells me Dilva will get an extended 70 minutes + which would be much more comfortable to watch

              2. Toby Lerone
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 29 days ago

                Pep said he would focus on personal milestones this week
                Sterling to 20+ goals and kdb 20+ assists. Sterling easily

                1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  2 months, 29 days ago

                  Then Pep is a liar - He took Sterling off while he was on hattrick 2 days ago

                2. Miguel Sanchez
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 29 days ago

                  Sterling to 20+ is just one more goal

              3. Vazza
                  2 months, 29 days ago

                  Sterling could score more points in 60 mins than Dilva in 90 mins IMO

                  1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 29 days ago

                    Yep, he's been doing that a lot lately

                    1. Vazza
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        I have a question for you please.

                        Which combo is better -

                        A. VVD, Bruno, Rashford

                        B. Doherty, Antonio, Kane (-4)

                        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          That's tough! I'd always err on the side of avoiding the hit - but B could do very well also for sure

                        2. Camzy
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          B. Don't much like United for this last game.

                          1. Vazza
                              2 months, 29 days ago

                              Thanks both.

                    2. Camzy
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      2 months, 29 days ago

                      Sterling and I don't think it's close.

                      He's going to be gunning for goal at every chance. He's had a short rest, he's looking sharp and he could be deployed up front if Jesus doesn't start/goes off early.

                      Silva has a guaranteed start, and the prestige of playing his last game of the season but that's it. Again, I don't think playing his last game will somehow make him more likely to get points. He's a selfless creator and not a goal scorer, to think for some reason this will change for this one game I think is misguided.

                      There's also no stats to verify that a legendary player playing their last game results in above average results. Gerrard blanked in his last home game at Anfield in a 3-1 defeat by Palace. Ronaldo's last home game was a 0-0 draw at Arsenal.

                      1. Vazza
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          You have a great football mind pal. Can you please advise me on the query above?

                        • Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Don't get hung up on the last game thing, or misinterpret how it impacts his FPL chances - the fact that it's his last game is irrelevant (directly) to his scoring

                          What it's NOT irrelevant to though is - his certainty of start

                          And his certainty of start is then *very* relevant to his FPL output - which has been nothing short of fantastic this season - 18 attacking returns in 20 starts this season playing better defences that this current Norwich will put out

                          A guaranteed (?) start in this fixture for a guy who has been churning out attacking returns for fun this season looks like a fantastic opportunity for points

                          1. Camzy
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 10 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            Does it matter who's nailed on if we get team news (I'm 90% sure we'll get it)?

                            Also Sterling is equally nailed on to start imo. The points speak for themselves.

                            Sterling - 196 total points, 6.1 PPM, 9.7 form
                            Silva - 136 total points, 5.2 PPM, 4.9 form

                            I think you're actively picking a worse option by going David Silva but again, just my opinion. One game, anything can happen.

                            1. Long ago I drew a walrus
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 10 Years
                              2 months, 29 days ago

                              Precisely. Anything can happen in one game and if someone's got a hunch for a certain player they're welcome to go for it but in a game of probabilities the objective situation is that Sterling has the higher probability of getting the higher score. He might not, but he's the most likely, and that's not debatable.

                            2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 10 Years
                              2 months, 28 days ago

                              *If* we got team news (which Rockstar has said we won't!), and *if* both were starting (which isn't a guarantee at this point) - then that tips things more towards Sterling - but there's a lot of ifs in there though is the point 🙂

                              Also I don't see it as being simply "going for an actively worse option" in Dilva - i really wish it was... but Sterling's scores since the restart have been:

                              10-0-2-16-1-10-21-1-17 = 5 hauls & 4 blanks

                              If you hit one of the blanks (i.e. almost half of that sample) then you are absolutely goosed on triple captaincy

                              Now I now the instant kneejerk corollary to that is "BUT BUT BUT DILVA HAS GOTTEN 6 BLANKS IN HIS LAST NINE HE'S AN ACTIVELY WORSE OPTION THAN STERLING AAAARRGGGHHH" but that's where Dilva's certainty of start *combined* with his unbelievable FPL record this season come into play (18 attacking returns in 21 starts playing better defences than he'll face on Sunday??)

                              As I say - I really wish it was as simple as "Sterling is better lol"

                              But it's really not, even given Sterilng's unbelievable prolific performances since the restart - its a more complicated situation that needs to be treated as such

                              And on balance at the minute (in the absence of teamsheets!) Dilva has the edge for me as I said above - lots can happen between now & then though so we'll have to see

                      2. Long ago I drew a walrus
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Maximising minutes is not a thing. You wouldn't TC Ederson. In all likelihood we will know for sure whether Sterling starts. He was taken off at 60 last time because he'd played the full 90 a couple of days earlier. 5 days gap to Norwich with CL far away. No reason he wouldn't stay on for the distance

                        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 28 days ago

                          I don't really agree with that - for a Man City attacker (bizarre to choose Ederson as a comparator), in a turkey shoot like Norwich hopefully will be, minutes are quite important

                          Sterling has 4 blanks in his 9 games since the restart - why? Minutes (in 3 of them)

                          Dilva has 6 returns in 5 starts since the restart - why? Minutes

                          In a Man City attack at home to relegated Norwich - minutes are going to be crucial!

                          1. Long ago I drew a walrus
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 10 Years
                            2 months, 28 days ago

                            You're also cherry picking statistics. Sterling has 4 blanks in 9 games, but Dilva has 6 blanks in 9 games. Dilva has 6 returns in 5 starts, Sterling has 10 returns in 6 starts as well as a further 2 off the bench.

                            Were Sterling's 4 blanks due to minutes? Against Burnley yes, he played 0 minutes and got 0. But his other 3 blanks were against Chelsea (lost), Southampton (lost), and Bournemouth (lost 1-0 in the half he played). Hard to get points when your team isn't winning. Conversely he hauled this week despite only playing 60 minutes and also got a double-digit score in 29 minutes against Newcastle. In fact Sterling has been remarkably consistent since the restart in that he has blanked in 4 games and returned 10+ in the remaining 5. So for GW38 the question isn't whether Sterling will play 60 mins or 90 mins or anywhere in between, rather will City win and will it be a big win? And we seem to agree on that.

                            I bring up Ederson because he is the only City player guaranteed to play 90 mins. Pep has said he wants all his players to get minutes and he has 5 substitutions to make so nobody outfield is guaranteed the full 90 and that includes Dilva because he is the oldest and least fit, and City do in fact have other (more important) games remaining. Therefore between 60 and 90 minutes I don't see Dilva as having any sort of major advantage over Sterling in terms of minutes and even if Sterling goes off at 60 (don't see it happening) and Dilva plays the full 90, my argument is that those 20-30 mins won't be the key factor in deciding who scores the most points.

                            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 10 Years
                              2 months, 28 days ago

                              Still think you're missing the point - you could easily reverse my statement above and say Sterling has 5 hauls in 9 games due to the minutes he got, and Dilva has 6 blanks in 9 due to the minutes he got

                              The point isn't that Sterling is a worse FPL player than Dilva - because he's clearly not - in a situation where Sterling & Silva both start, and both play equal minutes - 9 times out of 10 you'd probably expect Sterling to score more (given his current form - earlier in the season, not so much)

                              The point is that we're *not in* that situation unfortunately... we're in a situation where it's widely acknowledged that Dilva will start and gets minutes (because it's his last league game as a club icon - still not guaranteed though) and Sterling's start and time on the pitch is (imho) far from guaranteed

                              Where we seem to disagree is that you're obviously extremely bullish on Sterling's chances of starting, and getting significant minutes, whereas personally I'm not certain of that - Pep is a maniac (which is why I take what he says with a pinch of salt where possible) and if it wasn't Dilva's last game, he probably wouldn't be safe either, albeit 0 minutes last time out is yet another tick in the "Dilva minutes vs. Norwich" box

                              Minutes versus Norwich are the attacker's Holy grail - maximise a player's minutes, and you'll maximise that player's probability of points - with the information we have to hand, I'd see Dilva as having the edge over Sterling in that department - but it's not by a landslide, and I don't want to be relying on Raheem pulling another wonder-performance out in a reduced-minutes appearance, he's good at it, but it's not something I really want to risk

                              1. Long ago I drew a walrus
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                • 10 Years
                                2 months, 28 days ago

                                OK yeah I've seen where the point of contention is now. Which is fair enough. The way I see it however, people seem to think Pep Roulette is this completely random thing where absolutely anything could happen (which is true, but only to an extent) but logically, there are only a limited number of possibilities:

                                - Sterling and Dilva both play 90. Then the minutes point is moot and I hope you would agree Sterling has the higher ceiling.

                                - Sterling and Dilva both play 60+, but less than 90. Ditto above.

                                - Sterling and Dilva both start but one is taken off early. If we work with the assumption that they both start, would you still think that Dilva holds the advantage? I see no reason for Sterling to come off before 60 if he starts and chances are the game is well and truly over by that point, and my point previously was that Sterling can do more damage in 60 than Dilva in 90. I also made the point that Dilva could come off himself as his last game at home as a club legend guarantees him some nice game time but I don't see anything wrong with taking him off at 75 or so with an ovation from the players/staff to keep him wrapped up ahead of CL.

                                - Sterling and Dilva both start but one is hooked off at half time, or before 60m. I just don't see this happening, unless for some reason City are struggling to break through or chasing the game. In which case we're screwed anyway.

                                - Sterling starts, Dilva doesn't - this won't happen.

                                - Dilva starts, Sterling doesn't. In this case then obviously Dilva is the better choice. If I understand correctly you believe that Dilva's guaranteed start puts him at an advantage over Sterling who is less than 100% to start. Again, that's fair enough. But I think that it's very likely that someone will leak the team news before the deadline and if we have confirmation of who is starting, then Dilva's advantage is either set (Sterling benched) or no longer relevant (Sterling starts).

                                Just want to say btw that I realise this conversation has dragged on which is perfectly fine for me as I am bored at work but others including yourself might not see the point of why I'm trying so hard to convince you to TC Sterling. So just want to clarify that I'm not, I'm just trying to make my own point and hope you see where I'm coming from. That might help you or it might not but it certainly helps me to arrange my thoughts and hear your views.

                                1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  • 10 Years
                                  2 months, 27 days ago

                                  Yep I'd agree with most of that - and i think that's exactly what it boils to - I think the net probabilities of Dilva's minutes + a repeat of his generally excellent FPL form (slightly) outweigh the net of probabilities of Sterling's minutes and a repeat of his generally excellent(er!) FPL form

                                  If we get a teamsheet and both are starting, then that changes things, which I've said all along to be fair - but y thoughts there are still the same as they were previously

                                  i.e. FPL Rockstar has always been the go-to source of early teamsheets & he's said he isn't doing them this time around, which leaves the new guy - FPL scarface, who apparently got the UTD benching AWB call right midweek, but apart from that not sure he has a real track record...

                                  Hence doubtful of the early teamsheets which reverts things to their current status i.e. Dilva TC until or unless we get more info to the contrary! 🙂

                    3. ShaunGoater123
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 6 Years
                      2 months, 29 days ago

                      28 points ahead in cash ML, go into full defensive mode and replicate the majority of his team?

                      or do the fun FH team I was thinking of which means we'd only have 2 or 3 players the same!? FH team would be

                      Martinez

                      Pieters / Bardsley / Long

                      Salah / Sterling / Antonio / KDB / Dilva

                      Kane / Auba

                      Button / Nketiah / Williams / Branthwaite

                      1. GoingUpUpUp
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 2 Years
                        2 months, 28 days ago

                        you got in front by doing your own thing; why stop now??? Good luck

                    4. La Roja
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 8 Years
                      2 months, 29 days ago

                      No idea what to do lol, pls hlp chaps

                      DDG
                      TAA Fernandez Doherty
                      KDB Bruno Mahrez Willian
                      Kane Wood Trashford

                      3.9 Saka Ward Kiko

                      1 FT and 0.5 ITB

                      A) Willian ➡ Dilva
                      B) KDB Bruno ➡ Sterlo (c) Dilva -4
                      C) KDB Doherty ➡ Sterlo (c) Pieters -4
                      D) Trashford Willian Ward : arrow: Greenwood Sterlo Pieters -8

                      1. Toby Lerone
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 5 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Depends if chasing and you fancy a gamble. b could be that gamble

                        1. La Roja
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 8 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          I am only leading by 9 points, gulp

                      2. Kuzser
                        • 3 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        A

                        1. Vazza
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            A looks good.

                            How do you enter these funky blue arrows by the way..

                        2. GoingUpUpUp
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 2 Years
                          2 months, 28 days ago

                          A and captain Kane. 9 point lead will come down to points in hand and the right captain more than likely. To be this close teams around you are likely similar

                      3. Salah'd Fingers
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 5 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        How's this FH team looking? 2nd in the ML and have a 50 points clear of 3rd, but 50 short of 1st.

                        Pope (Martin)

                        Bardsley Pieters Lamptey (Williams, Simpson)
                        Dilva Salah KDB Martial Sterling(C)
                        Kane Rashford (Nketia)

                        Defence could be a total blowout, or a full house.... concerns me a bit!

                        1. Bubz
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Nice although not sure Id want Trashford on FH

                        2. ShaunGoater123
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 6 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          i'm thinking similar with the burnley triple up in defence. ultimately if you are chasing you need to do something like that and it to pay off so i like it.

                          midfield and strikers are nice, although not so sure about the united double up with rash and martial. who could you afford instead of rash?

                      4. tucaoneo
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 2 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Not that anyone would care but how did Mane manage zero shots in this game?

                        1. drughi
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          made good runs but salah only sees goal

                      5. Sulk
                        • 10 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        10 point ML lead is too small to use my FH to mark out his team right? Just in case he transfers in a good’un and captains him.....

                        May as well just ignore his team and pick the best I can?

                        1. Andrew
                          • 8 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Yes 10pts is basically one goal for a captain, I'm in the same boat with a 12pt difference. Pick the team you think will score the most points and forget his team

                        2. ShaunGoater123
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 6 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          tough one. i'm debating the same with a 28 point lead.

                          personally 10 points is minimal, i woudl look to get the team you want and see how that compares to his. if its massively different then look to swap a few to the same to minimise it to 3 or 4 differentials so the odds are reduced

                      6. cheekumz
                        • 6 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        A. Ings and Digne.
                        or
                        B. Wood and TAA.

                        I have been locked on A for a while, But i think TAA just has such a high ceiling and whilst i think Ings is going to score, i cant see him going too crazy against a tight SHU, so Wood probably has as good a chance at nabbing similar points.

                        1. TheLord
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 3 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          B

                      7. Eastman
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 3 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        If you could pick one striker for this gw who would it be?

                        1. Bubz
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Kane

                        2. HurriKane
                          • 8 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Kane

                        3. drughi
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          If I knew 100% he would start I would say Jesus

                          1. HurriKane
                            • 8 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            Not for me. Scored just 3 out of mancity's last 29 pl goals

                            1. drughi
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 10 Years
                              2 months, 29 days ago

                              Just think that Norwich side is perfect for atleast 2 goals from him if he starts

                          2. Bubz
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 7 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            Problem is even if he starts he almost definitely gets hooked around 57-65 minutes

                            1. drughi
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 10 Years
                              2 months, 29 days ago

                              fair point, kane plays 90 always so yeah

                        4. Miguel Sanchez
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 4 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Kane

                        5. Wild Rover
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Aubameyang

                        6. La Roja
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 8 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Auba and I am a Kane owner

                        7. Zim0
                          • 2 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Jimenez

                      8. Kuzser
                        • 3 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        I'm 20pts behind ML leader so need a fantastic performance from the team.

                        With 2ft and 0itb what would be the best moves here?
                        1) Vardy KdB Taa -> Kane/Auba Sterling Pieters for -4
                        2) Vardy KdB -> Wood/Ings Sterling
                        3) Vardy Willian Doherty -> Wood Sterling Pieters for -4
                        4) Vardy Willian -> Kane/Auba Dilva

                        McCarthy
                        TAA - Doherty - Baldock
                        KdB - Mahrez - Fernandes - Martial - Willian
                        Jimenez - Vardy

                        Subs: Greenwood Lascelles Lund. Krul

                        1. GoingUpUpUp
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 2 Years
                          2 months, 28 days ago

                          What are your differentials in your current side to the ML leader side? That would be useful to know

                          In the absence of that 4 or 2 look best to me at the moment (in that order and captain Kane). You're currently behind, no point starting the week a further 4 points down. Suspect ML leader may be looking over their shoulder as well and take a hit for security, so it makes a difference

                      9. PattBrofield
                        • 2 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        For those on FH, are you going with any Man Utd players? If so, who and why?

                        1. drughi
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Have martial atm but might ditch him too

                          1. PattBrofield
                            • 2 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            Yea they looked tired.. only have greenwood right now

                          2. PattBrofield
                            • 2 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            What’s your current FH?

                        2. Werner Brothers
                          • 5 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Martial & greenwood... To anticipate lei dismal defence. Bench greenwood atm

                          1. PattBrofield
                            • 2 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            Yea the game looks like it should have goals ..

                          2. PattBrofield
                            • 2 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            What’s your current FH?

                      10. Better luck next year
                        • 1 Year
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Which swap combo looks best?

                        A) Salah + Foden > Sterling + Dilva
                        B) Bruno + Vardy > Sterling + Ings
                        C) Salah + Vardy > Sterling + Kane

                        1. TheLord
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 3 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          B. I would not sell Salah before Newcastle

                          1. Better luck next year
                            • 1 Year
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            Cheers. Have Martial and Greenwood as united cover anyway, 3 united last GW seems like overkill. Itll probably be B

                        2. Tonyawesome69
                          • 1 Year
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          B

                      11. suddenorgan
                        • 9 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        really wish Pulisic hadn't looked so good last night so could just get rid of him for Silva

                        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          I did that move last night anyways - Wolves don't ever really get tanked - but Puli is scary to sell

                        2. Better luck next year
                          • 1 Year
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          The Pool defence was on the beach sippin on a drink last night. Have a feeling that Chelski Wolves will be a close game.

                      12. TheLord
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 3 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Start one:

                        A) Foden: probably benched but 20-30 minutes against a tired Norwich could be enough?
                        B) Wood: Assured starter, in form but ceiling seems to be one goal

                        1. Bubz
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          B

                        2. Tonyawesome69
                          • 1 Year
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          B

                        3. Werner Brothers
                          • 5 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Foden

                        4. GoingUpUpUp
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 2 Years
                          2 months, 28 days ago

                          Foden

                      13. Tonyawesome69
                        • 1 Year
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Chasing 25 points in cash ML. I need some thoughts on the transfer suggestions below. Midfield is a stalemate!

                        a. Foden to D Silva
                        b. KDB and Jimenez/ Wood to D Silva and Auba (-4)
                        c. Foden and KDB to D Silva and Antonio or Son (-4)

                        My team
                        1ft 2.5itb and no chips
                        Pope Martinez
                        TAA Doherty Saiss Aurier Taylor
                        Martial KDB Bruno Sterling Foden
                        Jimenez Ings Wood

                        ML Leader - 1ft 0.7itb and no chips
                        Hendo Martinez
                        TAA Boly Egan Targett Tarkowski
                        Martial KDB Bruno Sterling Hayden
                        Jimenez Kane Greenwood

                        1. rnrd
                          • 6 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          you need to go all-in there and be play maverick

                          I would do B and Aubameyang (C)

                        2. GoingUpUpUp
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 2 Years
                          2 months, 28 days ago

                          Bruno looked frustrated last night.

                          If it's a full roll of the dice, as much as i hate advocating a hit whenever possible, especially when chasing, maybe dump Bruno for Salah and downgrade Doh to Tarkowski or Pieters as think you will need the additional funds to get Salah. Suspect your ML leader will captain Sterling or Kane - captain choice will be the biggest changer for a 25 point deficit, Salah is the only viable option (IMO) against what they have

                          Pope
                          TAA Pieters/Tarkowski Aurier
                          Martial KDB Salah (c) Sterling Foden
                          Ings Wood

                      14. Old Man
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        Sterling's last four weeks: 10, 21, 1, 17
                        I have had him for just one of those weeks when he was my FH captain. You can guess which one. Imagine what a difference those other three scores would have meant, especially if he was (c). Now I am wondering whether to bring him in for a hit. Sterling owners beware.

                        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Its the "1" that has me doubting his triple captaincy credentials over Dilva who'll almost certainly start & probably get a lot of minutes

                        2. Better luck next year
                          • 1 Year
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          Had the same experience with captaining Sterling at his bottom scores. Had him last GW last season when I think he got only one assist against a weak Brighton. Think he’s more of a chasers captain, but could of course major damage on Sunday.

                          1. Better luck next year
                            • 1 Year
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            Do*

                        3. Mortal.Swinbat
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          2 months, 28 days ago

                          Exact same for me, only owned him one week since restart and it was FH36 (C). Annotingly my ML rival has had him since restart and now he's only 6 points behind me

                      15. eamonhegg
                        • 3 Years
                        2 months, 29 days ago

                        3.2k OR!!

                        Cash league Im 2nd and 6 points behind. But 50 points clear of 3rd.

                        Question > In the money but obviously want first, i have my FH and wanting to go totally opposite of rival sitting first.

                        A - Stick with current team which are similar and hope (C) is good enough
                        B - Go opposite with the likes of stirling / kane / Auba etc... No united or salah or ings
                        C - put my head in the sand

                        1. eamonhegg
                          • 3 Years
                          2 months, 29 days ago

                          FYI Rival has Bench Boost

                          1. rnrd
                            • 6 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            if rival has BB, then I'd advise to go 80% differential

                          2. cheekumz
                            • 6 Years
                            2 months, 29 days ago

                            If he has bench boost then you have NO idea what team he fields next week so A and B are redundant. Only option given that is to FH and put together whatever team you think scores the most. Would be different if he didn't have FH as well.

                            1. cheekumz
                              • 6 Years
                              2 months, 29 days ago

                              Oh he has BB... disregard haha, misread

                              1. cheekumz
                                • 6 Years
                                2 months, 29 days ago

                                Then cover his players with the highest ceilings, Sterling etc. then go differential with the rest. Hopefully he is missing one of the more promising candidates, Kane for example and chuck your C on that player... is what i'd do.