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Fantasy Football Scout Memberships for the 2020/21 season are now available at the pre-season rate of £17.50.

That works out at an equivalent of less than £1.50 a month (or 5p a day!) as, instead of expiring on June 1 as was previously the case, these rolling annual subscriptions now cover a full 12-month period.

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Our Flat-Track Bully tool was a new addition this season, with subscribers now able to identify Fantasy assets with good records against specific clubs.

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Our Projections and Rate My Team tools (below) were both refined for 2019/20, with RMT’s Professor – aka Chris Atkinson – elaborating on the changes in a Hot Topic.

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760 Comments Post a Comment
  1. JabbaWookiee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Which player is a given for your GW1 team next season, regardless of fixtures? For me, Fernandes.

    1. Costa Nostra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Most likely TAA, Salah and one of KDB or Sterling depending on who comes in cheaper.

    2. Berbs
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      TAA and KDB.

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        This

    3. Our Tiny Servant
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      When you say regardless of fixtures, if City and Utd don’t actually have fixtures I won’t be buying their players.

      Otherwise KDB is my first pick. This year he’s my permanent captain. Sick of the headache.

      I also am considering Salah Mane Trent which is expensive but means I always have three Pool and never have to move them. Two Pool defenders is a more affordable option.

      1. Sanchit
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        If KDB is your permanent captain, then no point getting Salah and Mane.
        Getting all 3 means you'll have to pick cheap players elsewhere.
        Rather have 4-5 attackers who all are decent in 8-9million range

        1. Our Tiny Servant
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Yes most likely I will have to change my mind when the prices avail. But my aim is still to find a rigid spine of a team to build and move around.

    4. noquarternt
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      It has to be TAA.

      1. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        How much would you pay for him? With only three players in all positions outscoring him last season, I can even see him starting at £9m.

        1. noquarternt
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          You’ve got to pay any price really. He’s a winger with huge clean sheet potential, on free kicks in the best team. I think he’ll be 8.0 but can see 8.5 at a push. 9 seems a bit too far but not out of reality.

        2. Trophé Mourinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          TAA at 9mil lol?
          He will be 7.5 or 8 max, 9 mil is ridiculous

          1. Whiskerz
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            If TAA comes in at 9 and robbo is 2m cheaper id have to seriously consider going robbo instead.

            1. Trophé Mourinho
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 29 days ago

              I wouldn’t get TAA for 9 but there is no chance he is 9

    5. NIKO.
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Salah

    6. bennyp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      RMT

      Pope
      Ake - Leeds UTD - Sheffield UTD
      Pulisic - Bruno - Salah - KDB
      Mitrovic :O - Ings - Greenwood

      auto complete - auto complete - auto complete - auto complete

      1. Trophé Mourinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Woeful defence

    7. Stram Dunk
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Bruno, KDB, TAA

    8. scubasmithy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Kdb, TAA, Fernandes

    9. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Regardless of fixtures: TAA, KDB, Bruno, Ings

      Regardless of price*: TAA, KDB, Bruno

      *WITHIN REASON 🙂

      I wouldn't pay 9.0 for Ings for example

    10. Goonsquad245
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      If they're priced as I'm expecting, Salah and Sterling are likely locks unless they have blanks/a truly ridiculous run of fixtures (MCI, mun, che or something similar). Maybe Bruno too as I think he'll likely be underpriced.

  2. Berbs
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    The stats behind Pulisic are absolutely unreal. And the eye test confirms as much. Anything that's not a premium price and he's a no brainer for me.

    Chelsea's new Hazard by the looks of things.

    1. noquarternt
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Reckon he comes in at 9/9.5?

      1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Yup. I’m guessing 9-9.5. It would be tough to get him at 10+

        1. Berbs
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Anything between 8-9 is a snip. Realistically 9.5

    2. The Rumour Mill
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I completely agree. And yet he's also the most fickle pr*ck in the entire league, I still haven't forgiven him for the 4 consecutive blanks against west ham, villa, everton and bournemouth. On that basis he really is the heir apparent to Hazard!!!

      1. Goonsquad245
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Christian Trollisic

    3. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Beginning to wonder if Guaita might be the keeper pick to be on next time possibly - especially if fixtures fall kindly early on to make him a more natural pick

      The talk of his moving back to Spain seems to have cooled

      1. He will come in 0.5 cheer than Pope anyway
      2. He was only ten saves behind Pope with substantially fewer minutes played - missed 3 matches (including City and Liverpool which would have increased saves surely)
      3. Palace with him in goal have a tidy cs record and that history includes 2018/9. If you look just at non top ten fixtures it rises to not far off 50%. He's a good man to have in favourable fixtures
      4. Value history is good - I never tired this time last year of pointing out he actually started last season as the best value keeper in the game on season value
      5. Palace spent most of the season with around half their first choice defence out - reason to think there was a degree of underperformance?

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Highjack 😀

      2. Berbs
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I posted about him the other day. I have a sneaky feeling he's dropping to 4.5m, along with a few others, to help us accommodate the big hitters.

    4. Amey
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      He's a tease ...
      I took a -12 to bring him in vs WHU & ©
      Not went all right tbh 😛

    5. Giggs Boson
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Agreed Berbs, I love watching him play.

      1. Berbs
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        It's like watching Hazard all over again. Let's hope FPL aren't too harsh with pricing!

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Totally agree - I think he's actually already better than Hazard at generating FPL returns from open play (someone shouted at me the other day saying how dare I say hes better than hazard - but what I'm saying is a very specific "type of better")

          The run against Liverpool was like George Best - and he's been doing that quite regularly throughout the season

          Fantastic little player

          Fun Fact: on NBCSN after the Burnley hattrick I think it was - Arlo White referred to him as "an annoying little mouse" of a player - still one of the best descriptions I've ever heard in commentary 🙂

    6. Trophé Mourinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Puli is definitely in my team from GW1. Haven’t owned him once yet
      Any chance he could get pens with Willian going? Unlikely right?

      1. Giggs Boson
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I'm expecting Werner to get pens.

        Can't wait to see what his price is...

      2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        One of himself or Werner look pretty logical from the start, almost regardless of fixtures

        Pulisic may only be 9.0 whereas Werner might get stuck with a 10.0

        But to be honest that could turn into a very lucrative double up depending which way things go

    7. ramunas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Agree about the eye test. Aside from price, my other hesitation would be that he seems incapable of getting bonus points even when he's getting attacking returns..

    8. scubasmithy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Yeah I really like him, not owned him but watching him play he looks class. Totally agree anything under 10 and he is a shoo in in my team

  3. The Overthinker
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    I captained Salah 19 times, Sterling 10 times. Out of the remaining 9, I've captained Alli twice xD

    Captain Score : 540

    1. drughi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      Captain score 471 Points

      Salah 12
      Vardy 8
      Sterling 6
      Mane 5
      KDB 3
      Son 1 (-2)
      Rashford 1
      Kane 1
      Foden 1

    2. scubasmithy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 28 days ago

      How do you find your captain score total?

  4. WALOR
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    UEFA Champions League fantasy:
    https://gaming.uefa.com/en/uclfantasy/create-team
    They have a separate league set up for the post-Covid segment, so you won't be disadvantaged by starting now.
    Deadline Aug. 7

    1. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Is there a template?

      1. WALOR
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I have Messi and Ronaldo, Gnabry and I forget who else.
        The site will post predicted lineup and suggest likely high scorers.
        Check it out.

    2. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Correction - the post-shutdown minileague starts August 12th, with the quarterfinals.
      Unlimited transfers at that point:
      https://gaming.uefa.com/news/025f-0fda51a879b3-e7cfe1bcb827-1000?loc=stories

  5. Champions united
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Do we have any Deadline to create team for next season
    Fixtures are out

    1. Nickemon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Before the season start.

      It'll be a couple of weeks (probably) until the game is even open.

      Stay cool.

  6. bennyp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Who's keen for the return of Mitrovic?!

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I am actually. What not to like about a proven PL talent.

      1. Giggs Boson
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        His price, probably...

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Maybe this is one thing. We need two 6/6.5m ish Strikers tbh to afford all the firepower

    2. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      The yellow card manufacturers are jumping for joy!

    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      He has to get there first - not a gimme.

  7. Trophé Mourinho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Spurs are so ambitious.
    We are signing hojbjerg, and some fans want us to add Solanke and Deeney to our ranks.
    FML

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Hojbjerg will definitely be an upgrade over Winks Sissoko IMO

      Solanke Deeney ... Well no comments

      1. Trophé Mourinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        yea I dont have an issue with Hojgjgerg really, but other suggestions 🙁

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Tbh Don't except big name to come only to sit on bench behind hurricane

          1. Trophé Mourinho
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            maybe Callum Wilson, i'd take him

            1. Amey
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Won't expect him to cost less than Ake

    2. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      You have got a stadium to repay, you got a massive Bank of England bailout and you have some obligation to pay it back rather than spuff it all on players and agents as if nothing happened.

    3. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I think that, under current budget situation, they are looking for squad players. I can imagine that Hojbjerg may even get starting spot alongside Sissoko. Deeney or Calum Wilson will be back - ups for inevitable Kane's injury

    4. El Presidente
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 28 days ago

      From teams going down I like Nathan Ake, Stanislas, Cantwell, Sarr.

      Maybe Callum Wilson, maybe Buendia, maybe Doucouré.

  8. Amey
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 29 days ago

    What do you think club's you follow needs this summer from transfer market ??

    For Man United, i think they need:
    A. Genuine Right Winger (ahem ahem Sancho ?? 😉 )
    B. CDM (Matic is old & McTomnay needs a competition, maybe an upgrade too. Ndidi/Doucoure/Verrati hopefully)
    C. CB (less I talk about Maguire Lindelof as a pair better. Not expecting a big name signing here. Will get a unknown giant CB from la Liga i guess)
    D. Finally if Pogba leaves use his ££ to buy Jack Grealish or Savic or Madison. All of these would cost fortune. So only happening if Pogba leaves.

    Can't see many big money transfers overall this summer with global economy taking a battering thanks to COVID19

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      An auxiliary Full Back can also do tbh. Just as a backup to AWB & Shaw/Williams.

      As per outgoing players, I'm expecting Lingard, Periera, Joel Pereira, Jones, Chong to leave this summer. Maybe Sanchez to Milan too if United pay off some of his astronomical wages

      1. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Think one area United lack in pushing on is in the wing backs - there's precious little threat there imo.

        Posted this a while back but AWB looked a awkward fit to me towards the back end of the season. He had plenty of ball in the oppo half but perhaps because teams were happy to leave him free given his inability on the ball.

        He's a terrific player in defence of course but if you're judging him by the standards of other wingbacks at top tier clubs he's way off in terms of attacking threat. Might even rate him as the least of all in that aspect.

        Not so sure about Shaw - less interested 😉 - but if you compare wingbacks from Chelsea Spurs Wolves Leicester Pool City and even perhaps Arsenal I think United are back in the pack - not out ahead where you want to be.

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          I agree with that. But having invested heavily over that area recently in AWB I don't see ed Woodward pouring money there again.
          Maybe something for next summer

        2. Amey
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Shaw is pathetic tbh. 😀

        3. baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Not everyone is TAA...

          1. Amey
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Agreed.
            Sadly

        4. Silver_and_Gold
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 29 days ago

          If it comes to AWB, I have a feeling Ole will work on his final third improvement. The raw material is there imo. He's a skilled technical player and I tend to disagree with his "inability on the ball". He was pushed more forward post restart - seems to be a sign, that Ole wants AWB to get more involved. I wouldn't be surprised AWB adding to his assists tally next year (4 this season).
          On the other hand, his defensive game quality dropped in recent games - wrongly timed tackles resulting in YC, he was being tackled at times (not the player we knew from first half of the season). He needs to get back to his best here.
          Overall good prospects ahead of him. I'd be surprised, if Woodward would consider buying anyone for this position. CB and DCM are much more important for them. Maguire being bought at that price is still a mystery to me 🙂

    2. Trophé Mourinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I was hoping Spurs would have gone for Ake and Grealish, but clearly not. If we sign some players I think they wont be from the PL

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        PL players are always overpriced. I won't blame levy to look outside for transfers

    3. amitmishr
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Centre-back, they are chasing sau Torres and verthongen is available.

      Don't think we will invest in defence beyond that. If dalot goes, a sub might come in.

      Savic possibly, to cover for matic, but I think that will be handled next year as matic has the legs for 1 more year.
      Cover for Pogba and Bruno needed. James is a no brainer at 30 mn, so is Thiago, if we can get him. Else grealish around 60 is also good option
      We need one striker and one right winger. Cavani, auba, Raul and Wilson/ perisic or sancho

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Savic is box to box. Not CDM by nature IMO.

        I see jack/savic as a replacement for pogba if he leaves than for Matic.
        Ndidi Doucoure or Thiago (alongside a brute box to box guy) can work out too.

    4. Berbs
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A fourth choice CB either experience or a young talent who is ready to play some games.

      An understudy to Robertson.

      Thiago Alcantara.

      Versatile forward who is better than Shaqiri, Origi and Minamino.

      How many do I think happen? Maybe 1 😆

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Ha ha
        Perks of being successful i guess 😉

        Agree with most of that yes. Gomez Matip would need a backup. So will Robbo with Milner getting old (is that a thing ?)

        Thiago would be amazing 😮

        1. Berbs
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          If Gomez and Matip weren't so injury prone, I'd be OK not signing a 4th CB as Fabinho could cover them - but they're bound to miss almost half the season between them.

          I honestly hope we get an understudy to Robertson. Miller tries his best but is more value off the pitch than on it in my opinion.

          And on Thiago, we have no excuse not to sign him. Top 5 CM, upgrade on Wijnaldum whose contract expires next summer, 30m€ and he's waiting for us to bid. I'd be very disappointed if we didn't sign Thiago, absolutely disappointed.

      2. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Is it true that Kelly from BOU is Liverpool transfer target? That may be answer for your points 1 and 2:)

        1. Berbs
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          According to Neil Jones (tier 2), he's an option. As is Jamal Lewis and a LB from Olympiacos whose name is too difficult for me to spell lol!

  9. pingissimus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Sorry I'll try again - posted in wrong place

    Beginning to wonder if Guaita might be the keeper pick to be on next time possibly - especially if fixtures fall kindly early on to make him a more natural pick

    The talk of his moving back to Spain seems to have cooled

    1. He will come in 0.5 cheer than Pope anyway
    2. He was only ten saves behind Pope with substantially fewer minutes played - missed 3 matches (including City and Liverpool which would have increased saves surely)
    3. Palace with him in goal have a tidy cs record and that history includes 2018/9. If you look just at non top ten fixtures it rises to not far off 50%. He's a good man to have in favourable fixtures
    4. Value history is good - I never tired this time last year of pointing out he actually started last season as the best value keeper in the game on season value
    5. Palace spent most of the season with around half their first choice defence out - reason to think there was a degree of underperformance?

    1. SackWenger
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      You’ve put forward a good argument there. I guess the key will be if they get their defenders back fit and ready given the short turnaround until the start of the season.

      1. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Actually there's a chance of double 4.0 full backs!

        PvA is almost certainly out and Mitchell is almost the favourite to start there. He's not a bad player and in his only two matches had Traore/Doherty and Son to deal with.

        On the other side we've signed Ferguson from WBA. He's unlikely to start perhaps but he's a probable 4.0 starter later in the season as Ward is not great competition in truth - more longstanding servant as the one remaining carry over from our promotion team

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Thanks for this. Are you expecting 4.5 this time, or 5.0?

      1. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        4.5 could happen I guess given late season beaching but feels very unlikely. Guaita is still up in the top end of the gk charts in most respects

        My biggest doubt is that there's a fin de siecle feel about Palace nowadays. It's a really old squad and high wages doesn't give any financial leeway for major upgrades ( see WBA and Stoke when they went down). RH has also steadily decreased our threat on the break by crowding out central midfield. The decline in Zaha is probs down to this tactical shift. That failure in attack pits more pressure on defence maybe

        Felt fairly confined this time last year - much less so now. Big danger also that we'll slump in trying to renew the side by injecting more youth. Tricky season ahead

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Zaha is overrated. He's playing like what he has always been.

          1. pingissimus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Disagree

            He's a heck of a player imo. Key point for me is how in the brief period he had Bats alongside him in 2018/9 he took off and that was just Bats - good but not scintillating

            The big fish in small pond idea fails to take into account this. He's funnelled the ball in almost every situation more or less by default. Given the tactical shift under RH (see above) most of the time his function is merely to take pressure of defence by running it out.

            Overpriced of course in the market but unfair to put any weight one his United year. Moyes was a mess and United was a mess and he didn't even get to play.

            1. Amey
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 29 days ago

              For large part of last few seasons, i have seen him diving shouting Moaning.

              Not what you expect from your talisman. I think palace should have let him go when he wanted to arsenal. But since they overpriced him it's a never ending loop of sh.t performances combined with glimps of potential he has.

              He is 27 !! Should be in his prime. His output where it matters is very bad though.

              I'm not saying that because his United move didn't went well mind you. Just what i feel whenever i watch Palace play.

              1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                He had a good last couple of seasons - but a massive downturn in output this year... 5 goals & 5 assists is way below what he’s capable of

                Palace’s attack is genuinely relegation level - they seriously need to get a striker in or risk getting sucked closer & closer towards the plug hole - maybe with a striker there to score goals Zaha gets back up to 10G 10A....

                But Woy isn’t getting any younger either - he’s not going to be there to work miracles forever - and they need to be very wary of getting another Frank De Boer in after him

                1. Amey
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Whatever formation, whatever sh.t around him. His direct output is bad !
                  Not what I'd expect from my talisman.

                  If i had 70m£ this summer I'd get Grealish than Zaha (know both aren't same type but still)

                  One is a drama queen & other one is hardworking, ever running, young talismanic boy 🙂

                  And i have nothing but respect for RH for keeping them in PL. PL is a best !!

                  1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    The silver lining - At least if Palace don’t sign a striker we know who to target for our defence to keep clean sheets against next season 🙂

                    Especially at Selhurst Park - worst home attack in the league by quite some distance

                    The prior season - only Huddersfield scored less home goals than them (And that was buffered by 5 goals on the final day vs Bourenmouth) so it’s nothing new either

                    1. Amey
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 29 days ago

                      Ha ha ha
                      You're right. 0-0 shower

                    2. pingissimus
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 29 days ago

                      If you analyse matches pre lockdown and before beaching Palace were scoring at home more often than naked stats perhaps suggest. They did score at home against

                      Villa
                      Norwich
                      Wolves
                      Liverpool
                      West Ham
                      Brighton
                      Bournemouth
                      Arsenal
                      Newcastle
                      Watford

                      The blanks came against

                      Everton
                      City
                      Leicester
                      Southampton
                      SU

                      I'm guessing that's pretty standard. There's a distinction here between cs and goals conceded perhaps.

                      Palace do of course specialise in defensive anomalies. You're understating what happened in 2018/9 at Selhurst. That was the worst goal scoring home record of any team that wasn't relegated as was this year's effort in never scoring more than twice.

                      1. pingissimus
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 1 Year
                        1 month, 29 days ago

                        Whoops lost track there - not cs and goals conceded: goals scored.Just checked

                        SU and Burnley who feel like natural comparisons also failed to score 4 times at home pre lockdown. It's not a big difference.

                        Fixtures and post lockdown may add to your argument possibly

                      2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        1 month, 29 days ago

                        Yeah its difficult to put lipstck on the pig of Palace's attacking record - it's been shambolic for two seasons now (particularly at Selhurst!) - something they really need to address urgently or risk getting sucked ever closer to that dreaded plug hole

                        But as I say, the silver lining is that if they don't strengthen in attack, we at least know where to look to get our FPL defences matched up with a struggling forward line

                      3. pingissimus
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 1 Year
                        1 month, 29 days ago

                        It's the home one that is so consistent as you say.

                        Away last season iirc the attack was top 6. That was presumably an anomaly 🙂 Sadly I find it hard to see any particular change in the current trend. 40 goals in the season max.

                        TAA captain again next season against them likely for me 🙂

                      4. Trophé Mourinho
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 1 Year
                        1 month, 29 days ago

                        Ayew has done all right for Palace but yea they need to sort it out. Zaha, Benteke and Townsend haven’t been exactly proflic for them

                      5. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        1 month, 29 days ago

                        The prior season's away attacking record was soooooo bizarre

                        They scored 32 goals away which was actually top 6 as you rightly say - but almost half (15) of those goals actually came in just 5 games - against Liverpool, City, Leicester, Arsenal, Wolves of all teams - literally averaging 3 goals per game away to some of the best defences in the league (arsenal excepted lol)

                        Then in their other 14 away games they reverted to type with only 17 goals...

                        Obviously those "bigger" teams underestimated their strength on the break & stupidly allowed them to counter attack, something teams have gotten much wiser to that this season which has just choked off what little away attacking progress there may have been last year

                        It's a tough one for them to try to navigate for sure

              2. pingissimus
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Not disagreeing about the move and it has clearly affected him - as it has others

                It was never going to happen but actually wouldn't have minded last year if it had. Also fair point on moaning etc but again that hardly puts him in a category of one.

                You fail to account for Palace and RH when you think output. A semi sympathetic manager would get way more output imo. That needn't involve making him the focus of everything - actually a bit of the opposite -allowing him to play off someone else whilst getting through his share of defensive work

                1. Amey
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Well you aren't giving much credit to the old man IMHO bro 🙂

                  He has done very good job with limited budget he had. I'd much rather grind it out to stay in pl than die along the sword like Norwich for example.

                  I agree positional shift, lack of urgency amongst other players, less embassies on scoring goals than defending CS. But when i see Ayew scoring assisting more than him throughout the season despite playing on wing tracking back, or up top alone holding up ball, i don't like it !!

                  I have learned one thing after watching PL so many seasons which you'd agree too. Teams with goalscorers always tend to survive. Hence I'd always want my big players to score or assist goals. Hopefully he pulls up his socks and does well though. Have nothing against him personally. Just saying what i feel as a third person (not a fan of palace or zaha)

                  1. pingissimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    Oh I give him credit and I'm happy to have him - I'm one of the most RH positive Palace supporters around.

                    I'm making quite another point, RH is poor for Zaha and Palace wing play. Townsend has fallen off a cliff too. There's no doubting the Townsend workrate etc. Clear pattern imo.

                    RH is a dilemma because he may well give us one more season but his player legacy will be a real problem. We've flourished by picking up players for nothing (check sut the outlay under him) who can work his system. No one who comes in is likely to fancy them much and they're nearly all very long in the tooth anyway.

                    1. Amey
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 29 days ago

                      I take your point regarding wing play. You watch them week in week out.
                      This season will be interesting yes 🙂

            2. Amey
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 29 days ago

              I'd have Ayew over him in team for effort he puts in day in day out !

        2. baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          He is certainly at least 5.0 The only thing that could happen is 5.5

        3. Old Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Has to be +1 for anyone including "fin de siecle" in a post! 😀

    3. Amey
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      He will come at 5 m
      Somewhat awkward price i guess.
      I'd rather get lloris for 0.5 more & one of your cheap FB's

    4. FOO FIGHTER
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I want to get in Lloris.

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Maybe start by buying him a nice bunch of flowers

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          And a bottle of whiskey alongside driving manual 🙂

        2. FOO FIGHTER
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          For his other half yes.

      2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Better have a backup for him also then
        He's always missing games for sickness and various other reasons.

  10. amitmishr
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    pope
    taa chillwell
    bruno kdb mane/salah mahrej
    raul

    Aplanning this as a draft right now. Problem with top sides, city, Chelsea and United would be too many options and goals may be spread around. Liverpool probably will still play the same front 3.

    Problem is that this would take significant chunk out of team value. Thoughts?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      You wont have enough money to complete your team.

      1. amitmishr
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Raul, mahrej and chillwell then may need to be sacrificed. Pope also, if he comes at 5.5. Ryan at 4.5 would then be juicy

    2. Make Arrows Green Again
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Mahrez is the weak link so will be replaced for budget reasons with someone suitable from the Mount/Perez price bracket

      1. amitmishr
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Mount might come above 7.

        And yes budget will be an issue, in that case, will move mahrez and Raul out. Chillwell also, in case Chelsea don't get a good keeper

        1. Make Arrows Green Again
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Sorry I mean this year's Mount bracket (6 - 6.5)

  11. Lindelol
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    What should be the price of these players next season
    1. KDB
    2. Greenwood
    3. Bruno
    4. Foden
    5. Werner
    6. hakim ziyech
    7. Trent Alexander Arnold
    8. Pope
    9. Salah
    10. Sterling

    (I know it’s been asked many times already)

    1. amitmishr
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      . KDB 11
      2. Greenwood 6.5
      3. Bruno 9.5
      4. Foden 6.5
      5. Werner 9
      6. hakim ziyech 7.5
      7. Trent Alexander Arnold 7.5
      8. Pope 5
      9. Salah 12
      10. Sterling 11.5
      11. Mane 11

    2. FOO FIGHTER
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Let me have a swing

      KDB 11.5 to 12
      Greenwood 6 to 6.5
      Bruno 10.5 to 11
      Foden 7.5
      Werner 8.5 to 9
      Ziyech 8
      TAA 7.5
      Pope 6 to 6.5
      Salah 12
      Sterling 12.5

      1. Lindelol
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Greenwood would be in every team with that price

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Look out for Brewster. If he goes out on loan to another PL club he will probably be 5.0. Max 5.5. Starting fwd at that price with his talent straight into my team!

          Scored 10 goals for Swansea since January. Kid is going to go big and has the right attitude to succeed. Hoping he is an FPL asset next season!

          1. Trophé Mourinho
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            I wonder where Harry Wilson will go? Back to Pool or loaned out again

            1. FOO FIGHTER
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Either sold or out on loan.

              1. Trophé Mourinho
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Klopp likes him, won’t be sold imo

                1. FOO FIGHTER
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  He is not in Klopps plans.

    3. diesel001
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      1. KDB - 12.5m
      2. Greenwood - 8.5m
      3. Bruno - 11.5m
      4. Foden - 8.5m
      5. Werner - 10.0m
      6. hakim ziyech - 10.5m
      7. Trent Alexander Arnold - 8.5m
      8. Pope - 5.5m
      9. Salah - 13.0m
      10. Sterling - 12.0m

      1. amitmishr
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        If this happens, god help us in fitting a few premiums in our teams. Knowing these buggers, very much possible

        1. diesel001
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Perfect. Why should it be easy to get 9 players from Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd?

          FPL should, IMO, be trying to make the pool of viable picks as big as possible. So making it tough to get players from the top 3 sides in the PL and forcing managers to think about Arsenal, Brighton, Leeds, Palace, Sheff Utd etc.

          1. SHOOTER MCGINN
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Exactly this. Sometimes it feels like there are so few players to pick from and most likely from a pool of 5-6 teams, everyone has similar teams. Of course there are still millions of options, but forcing people to look further down the league for cheaper options could only be a good thing.

      2. circusmonkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Agree with these higher prices.

      3. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Gordon Bennett! If the prices come out as you predict then my team will be full of Buttons, Cathcarts, Guendouzis and Nketiahs.

        1. Trophé Mourinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 28 days ago

          The dirty dozen, literally

        2. diesel001
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Nope. You will have to far greater consideration to players like Maupay, Trossard, Grealish, Trezeguet, McGinn, Tielemans, Maddison, Barnes, Perez, Bowen, Antonio, Barnes, Wood, McNeil, Ceballos, Saka, Wijnaldum, Henderson, Barkley, RLC, Mount, Moura, Lamela, Bergwijn, Traore, Jota, Zaha, DCL, Richarlison, Almiron, ASM, Ward-Prowse, Redmond, Armstrong, plus options from Leeds etc.

          So with slightly more defensive pricing of top players I have just opened up the game by increasing the pool of viable picks significantly.

    4. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Kdb 12
      Greenwood 7.5
      Bruno 10
      Foden 7.5
      Werner 10.5
      Ziyech 9
      Taa 7.5
      Pope 5.5
      Salah 12
      Sterling 11.5

      1. Lindelol
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Bruno 10?

      2. Amey
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Bruno can be 10.5/11
        Him being there for half season may let us get away with 10m tag though yes.
        Imagine if he's cheaper than Tony 😮

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          If Tony is 10+ and classed as a fwd then I will be give him a miss. For him to reach his points tally as a fwd he will need to get more returns compared to this season as well as bonus points which he seems to struggle with heavily!

          1. Amey
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            He'll get 6 more bps as a striker per goal though

        2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          I've a funny feeling we might get Bruno at 10.0 or 10.5

          Don't think we'l be lucky enough to get 9.5 - but you never know - Pogba avoided a massive hike after his purple patch... a patch he exited with Pens, DFKs, an advanced role and a better career minutes per G/A than Frank Lampard!

          11.0 is possibly fairer, but hoping that 14 games on from being 8.5 will just be too far to soon for the handicapper to catch up with him

          Another season of that & he's 11.0+ though, no doubt - the sky's the limit for him as an FPL asset he is perfect

          1. Amey
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Definitely.
            I won't bother about his price. He can be 15m 😀
            If that's the case United would be doing great invariably ...

    5. Flaming Flamingo
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      KDB - 12.5
      Greenwood - 8
      Bruno - 11
      Foden - 7.5
      Werner - 10
      Ziyech - 9.5
      TAA - 8.5
      Pope - 5.5
      Salah - 12.5
      Sterling - 12

    6. Berbs
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      KDB 12.5
      Greenwood 7.5
      Bruno 10.5
      Foden 7.5
      Werner 9
      Ziyech 8
      TAA 8
      Pope 5.5
      Salah 12
      Sterling 12

    7. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I think ffs could make a competition out of this. Lowest total difference to real price. Case of beer to the winner, or an Amazon voucher.

    8. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      They should all be 4.5m

  12. amitmishr
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    What are the best additions to united squad according to you. Assuming a budget of 130-140 mn? Sales may raise around 50 more, smalling, alexis, lingard, Jones, dalot

    My picks:
    Defence: sau Torres (25)
    Fallback, verthongen (free, but high salary)

    Mid:
    Savic (60) or James (30). I would prefer James as it would offer rotation option to Pogba and Bruno. Both will be a luxury

    Forwards
    Sancho (80-100), Willian (free), Jimenez /auba (both around 50). Perisic (swap for Alexis. Cavani

    Sancho probably disturbs the budget too much.

    Auba or cavani, perisic/Willian, Savic (if Cavani is taken), James, verthongen would be the best situation as per me

    Grealish for Savic is also a decent option

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Smallling is out on loan with compulsory buy option at the end of the season for 15m€
      Sanchez if goes would take 10/15mM£ as compensation for his definitely reduced wages over next club.
      Lingard/Periera/Joel periera/Jones/Chong can get 40/50m€ yes.

      I don't want FB or a striker over a RW CDM for the sale of budget.

      We need a proper right winger. Greenwood isn't one. He's a #9 also so young harsh to expect him to stay first choice over long season. Sancho may disrupt the budget but will make United attack as good as anything in PL. Maybe less potent than Pool. But effective as hell for OGS style of play.

      One CDM is a must with Matic getting closer to 100 years old.

      Grealish or Savic would be welcome but after RW CDM comes.

  13. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Are any of these new GK's coming up from the Championship penalty save specialists...

    It's about time we had another Neil Etheridge at our disposal, especially after Hendo kept the "promoted keepers" flag flying high this season 🙂

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I'd be keen to hear some more on this myself 😉

  14. 03farmboy
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Who do we think scores the most points in the fa cup final?

    1. Azathoth
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      David Luiz (cs + g)

      1. Our Tiny Servant
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I have money on him getting a card and conceding too so I hope you’re wrong

    2. mynameisq
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Pulisic

  15. Exxtreme
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    I'm not sure where to ask this, so I'll just put it here:
    Eliteserien fantasy question:
    - next round, double Molde week, what's going on in attack, who to buy, Ohi or James?

  16. Trophé Mourinho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 29 days ago

    I think Grealish will be in my team at Villa, depending decent fixtures. At Arsenal I’d maybe have most of the season. Could he reach close to 200 points at Arsenal? Probably

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Chances of anyone buying grealish from Villa went down after them staying up 😉

      1. Trophé Mourinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I reckon Arsenal will pay it

        1. Trophé Mourinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Either way he will still be a great fantasy asset no matter where he is. Just not fixture proof Ofc, going to Arsenal kinda makes him somewhat more fixture proof. He would be a bargain in that case. I expect he will be 8mil maybe 7.5

    2. FOO FIGHTER
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I am not sure Grealish is going to be worth 7.5 to 8 to be honest.

      Is he going to increase his points tally to go with the price increase?

      1. Trophé Mourinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        8 goals and 7 assists / 149 points in that Villa side. At Arsenal o reckon he should reaches 200 points. And stats more like 10-12 goals, 10 assists.
        You’d think anyway, anything more then 8mil is too high and even 8 on the surface seems high. But if he registers returns like that, then at the end of emfx season we will be like what a bargain he was!

        1. Trophé Mourinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          His goal tally could drop a bit tbh, but assists up

    3. Nickemon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      David Silva never reached 200 points playing for Man City all these years.

      191 points (12 g + 12 a) was his best season.

      Just sayin...

      1. Amey
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Maybe that has something to do with his age when Pep took over. Now way he's not get a 200 in his prime under Pep

      2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Kun has similary counter intuitive career points deficiencies

        In 9 seasons he's failed to break 200 points in 6 of them - and never gotten to 220!

        (Hes obviously great on points per game though)

      3. Trophé Mourinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Yea I’m probably reaching a bit far but his return this season was good for his price. Hoping for him to become an FPL legend. But whoever buys him need to add a clause in his contract stating this his socks must be pulled up

  17. Dybala10
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    What was the pre-season price for membership last season?

    1. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      £15 I think?

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I renewed via PP & it set up a long term DD, this is getting cancelled.

      2. Dybala10
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Sounds about right.

    2. Mr. Sitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      It was £12.50

      1. Dybala10
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Ouch, that is an increase.

    3. Our Tiny Servant
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      What other options are there? FFS say they’re the best value. Wondering how it compares.

    4. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Don't start this again tightwads

  18. jtreble
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    What is Paulinho‘s price going to be?

    1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Don't know

    2. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      7M?

  19. Xanthorpe
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I think Bruno will be a trap next season, especially with the projected increase in price. Man United won a relatively fair amount of penalties this year but it's not sustainable. I would at least expect the opposition to be smarter about handling United attackers in the box now. His non-penalty expected stats are not particularly impressive at 0.4 xGI per 90.

      1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        He'll be playing for the champions though 😆

      2. mynameisq
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        They won plenty, however he only took a few. Also I think they'll continue to get lots of penalties anyway but with decent rest and 6 months of settling into the league I expect his open play goal threat to come to the fore

        Don't write him off is all I'm saying

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          The way United play - counter-attacking, speedsters into the box - they'll continue to win more than their fair share of pens. Can see him being De Brunye-lite with pens in his arsenal.

          1. mynameisq
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Pretty much this, add Sancho to the mix and Bruno is basically kdb when he gets to play in CAM and we all know how well he does when he's in that position. Opposition too worried about Jesus sterling Mahrez which leaves him all the space in the world, gonna be a similar story with Bruno.

            People are underestimating the fact that he played 90 almost every game since return so while yes every team had fixtures that were condensed not every team had to use pretty much the exact same players for every game which did affect the team and fpl points

      3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        You know that excluding penalties he got 12 attacking returns in 14 games, right?

        Does a set piece monopolist who shoots on sight & has a laser guided assist range really sound like "a trap"?

        1. Xanthorpe
            1 month, 29 days ago

            He's actually overperforming in general. According to Understat, he has registered 7 assists from 2.76 xA. I'm not saying he's a bad option, I just don't think he'll be worth the projected price.

            1. Zim0
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              De Bruyne overperformed as well by like 6 goals

              1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 28 days ago

                Exactly - KDB another example of where you just have a player with such ability that he can't help but perform above averages over certain periods of time

                1. Zim0
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 28 days ago

                  Yes thankyou. You're better at explaining things than me

            2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              Yeah but that "overperformance" you keep citing from Bruno is *versus the average*

              You know that over long (and sometimes short!) periods of time, above average players will tend to perform above the average, right?

            3. Zim0
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              Also think his expected assists were lower because he assisted greenwood a few and those goals weren't expected goals. But greenwood has that kind of shot that expected goals can't tell the whole story. I'm presuming thats how the expected stats work.

              1. Zim0
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 28 days ago

                And not juat greenwood. Martial has been really clinical as well.

              2. Goonsquad245
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 28 days ago

                Greenwood is due some wild regression though. 10 goals from an xG of just over 3 is incredible overperformance however much stock you place in xG/stats.

                For context, if he were to continue at that rate for his entire career he would be roughly a 10x better finisher than Messi in terms of xG overperformance (~20% vs ~200%)

                Do agree that Bruno is more likely to *slightly* outperform xA than the average because he's playing with better players than the average, but not by the amount he has done so far.

                (DISCLAIMER - Bruno is a very good option and will likely be in my team GW1 price dependant)

                1. Zim0
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 28 days ago

                  His expected goals are low because an average player can't score the type of goals he scores

                  1. Zim0
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 28 days ago

                    It doesn't mean he'll outscore messi. Just that he can score from chances that aren't expected to go in

                  2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 28 days ago

                    This - he looks a freak of nature when it comes to generating power from low backlift snapshots taken quickly off either foot - a defender's worst nightmare

                    The fact that he has lightning pace into the bargain is another string to his bow that's he's yet to really capitalise on/unlock

                    1. Zim0
                      • 2 Years
                      1 month, 28 days ago

                      Exactly! 🙂

                  3. Goonsquad245
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 28 days ago

                    I mean, if he scores 35 goals from an xG of 12 next season, then I'll admit I'm wrong. Can't see it myself though.

                    It's more likely that (as pointed out below) he improves his game in other areas and starts getting on the end of more chances - so he could maintain/improve his actual output in that way.

                2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  1 month, 28 days ago

                  Check out Tammy Abraham for a wild example of a similar phenomenon

                  7 goals from 2.0 XG in GW3-5 - followed by desolation either side of it

                  For my money over the long haul Greenwood in points terms should continue to deliver though

                  (Whether he gets there via a progression in his XG, Big Chances, SOT's - or via maintaining his current XG deltas won't really matter from a points/output perspective)

                  His first touch and quality/power off both feet in particular is just otherwordly and extremely hard for any defender to contain - that touch of his is just that good that it fashions chances out of nothing

                  Really hope he develops on the same trajectory because at 18 its terrifying to think how good he can get

        2. FOO FIGHTER
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Bruno's problem as an FPL asset is his points per game. Unlikely to keep it up when KDB's was less followed by Salah, Mane and Sterling.

        3. Berbs
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          His numbers were similar at Sporting. He looks like a player who will look quite poor in large spells but haul with points. FPL is about points, it doesn't matter how you get them and whether you're an aesthetically pleasing player or not.

          He reminds me of Coutinho - he'll lose the ball, he'll shoot erratically, but he'll get points.

      4. SHOOTER MCGINN
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Do you play any other FPL alongside the main game? Was looking at Sky and Fanteam for next season too, but don't want to spend an excessive amount of time covering them all.

        Are relatively transferable in terms of player analysis? I know Sky has more points for tackles etc. and Fanteam has extra points for playing 90, that sort of thing. But in terms of key goals/assists/clean sheet metrics presume it's similar. If you play more than one, are your teams similar to do they vary a lot due to the slight rule changes?

        I like FPL, but I also like the idea of winning some cash... so these other games have an edge on that.

      5. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Just got in, sorry if it's been discussed:

        Jimenez to Man U - how that gonna work? Will he rotate with Martial?
        At Wolves he''s nailed on in my squad; at United probably not.

        1. mynameisq
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          I don't believe the rumours tbh but you'd think IF he moves he's gonna be main striker, and then maybe martial rashford fight it out on the left. Would be very harsh on martial but Jimenez is a proper striker and better at hold up/link play

          1. Andy_Social
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            At Wolves, esp if not in EL, he'll play every PL game; I doubt he will with United. If he is the main striker and is flanked by Rashford and Martial, that knocks Greenwood out. Depressing all round. Or at least all 4 will get reduced minutes, making all of them less attractive in FPL.

            1. Andy_Social
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Oh, and if Sancho is added, shheesh, Pep roulette will get a run for its money!

        2. FOO FIGHTER
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          And going to UTD will see his price hiked up...

        3. SHOOTER MCGINN
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Would put Jimi/Martial in the Aguero/Jesus camp. Don't really want either for the money.

        4. jtreble
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          “... how that gonna work? ...”. Not very well I suspect. Paulinho at WOV on the other hand ...

        5. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Jiminez would be a fantastic signing for Man Utd - he just wouldn't be fantastic signing for FPL

          In fact, the FPL ramifications would possibly be quite a negative domino effect

          He himself would instantly become a less attractive prospect (price hike plus less certainty of start/more compeition)

          Same with Tony Gloves & Greenwood - an extra body in there competing with the for minutesdriving more POO situations

          But as United look to enter a 55-60 game season across league & champions league - having a player of Jiminez's quality on board would be a massive positive for them

          1. jtreble
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            “... in fact, the FPL ramifications would possibly be quite a negative domino effect ...”. I suspect you might be right about this.

            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              We need to monitor Utd's trasnfer activity very closely - An attacking treble up with them was so goddamn lucrative since the restart, it would be a shame for them to "ruin" it by getting in a load of extra bodies - one big marquee signing like a Sancho or someone though & they could be gold again

              1. jtreble
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 28 days ago

                I had planned to put Greenwood in my team. That no longer makes sense any more imho ...

      6. Lucky Z
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Guys,

        Is there any football game on mobile, like old school ones with real teams, squads where you can choose team and vs other teams, partici0ate in cups etc?

      7. Trophé Mourinho
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Given the prices rises next season, I’m for sure going 4 at the back. It should afford TTA, KDB, Salah, Puli, Bruno and Jimi imo and hopefully Grealish.
        I’ll be happy with those

        1. Trophé Mourinho
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 28 days ago

          If can’t afford then Grealish>5th at the back. But actually thinking about it prefer Ings over Grealish so we will have to see.
          Don’t want or need Doherty.
          I’m thinking TTA, Aurier, Tierney and then Robbo/Boly or some 4.5/5.0

        2. Zim0
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Still too expensive imo. You'll need to get rid of 1 of them at least

        3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          I still think 3-4-3 could be epic

          4.5, 4.0
          TAA, 4.5, 4.5, 4.5, 4.5
          KDB, Bruno, Pulisic, ____, 4.5
          Ings, ____, ____

          Leaves 21.5-ish for three starting attackers - find a 5.0/5.5 gem or two & that allows 16.0 for two starters

          Can be 10.0/6.0, 8.0/8.0, 9.0/7.0 etc

          Lovey balance - we need a good crop of 4.5 defenders, preferably with nicely rotating fixtures, to enable though

          1. FOO FIGHTER
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 28 days ago

            You going to get that many playing 4.5 defenders?

            1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              I think we'll surely have 2-3 straight away from the promoted sides, not hard to find another 2-3

              Who knows - we might eve get 4.0's at palace with PVA out...

              1. Major League Shocker
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 28 days ago

                Yes, I expect all of the bottom-half sides to have at least one starting 4.5 defender, except maybe Everton. I could be wrong, but I don't expect dramatic, across-the-board price increases. There will probably be around 15-20 players across the league that get dramatic price increases, largely from Man Utd and Chelsea, plus a few other big outperformers like KDB, Foden, Ings, and Pope.

                Out of the bottom half teams, the only defenders that I think will definitely be more than 4.5 are the Everton full-backs, Fernandez, Dunk, and the Leeds full-backs.

          2. scubasmithy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Kdb - 12
            Bruno - 11
            Pulisic 10
            Ings - 8.5
            TaA - 8
            49.5 mill, plus your 31 mill

            Assuming 442, you got 19.5 for two starters and a sub striker

            So 15 mill for starting striker and mid.... Not too bad

            1. Karan14
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              Pulisic won't be more than 8.5-9.
              Bruno 10-10.5.

            2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              I assumed Bruno 10.5, Pulisic 9.0, Ings 8.0

              I don't think those three will cost more than 27.5-ish between the three of them whichever way they land indivudally (hopefully!)

          3. FALSE PROFIT
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            It might but points per million should still sit with defenders.
            (Pope 5.5) 4.0 9.5
            (TAA 8.0) 6.0 5.0 4.0 23.0
            (KDB 11.0) (BRUNO 9.5) (PULI 8.0) 9.0 5.5 43.0
            (INGS 8.0) 12.0 4.5 24.5

            My type of balance.

        4. FALSE PROFIT
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          pricing is a bit hopeful

      8. The Hobbit
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        If Jimenez to United rumours turns out to be true then FPL will reclassify Martial as a forward and he will go back on the wing next season.

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Rashford Jimenez Martial = way too many points being shared.

        2. Zim0
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Transfers not gonna happen and even if it does martial won't be displaced as first choice. So I'm 99% sure the rumours are fake.

          1. jtreble
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            :).

      9. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Hey Mods till what date is the discounted membership being offered?

      10. 3 A
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Last year Fabianski was so popular..

      11. Make Arrows Green Again
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        I saw a comment earlier about De Bruyne outperforming expected goals and expected assists. I suspect the implication here being that he will revert to the mean next season, but it's got me thinking about XG/XA/XGI and what that really means. Forgive me for not replying directly to the thread but I think this line of thought might warrant separate discussion. I am sure that the conclusion, that the best players have to significantly perform XG for them to be the best players, isn't new, but it's food for thought when thinking about stats, and when trying to avoid statistical traps. For the sake of argument here, I will use XG for all expected involvements unless context dictates otherwise.

        Expected goals is explained in great detail here, for background:

        https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431

        It is clear, in case we didn't already know, that these expected metrics are derived from historical data based on what other players tend to have done in similar situations. So a chance where the ball which has hit both posts with the keeper beaten and is sitting on the line ready for any sort of contact is nigh-on a 100% XG, whereas, say, a wind-assisted goal kick going all the way in the other end is for the sake of argument a 0.0001% XG.

        So XG is based on what other players do/have done. But we read a lot about a player outperforming HIS XG. This is where I'm wondering whether, when it comes to the absolute best players in the game, whether we can trust these metrics at all. We too often allow ourselves to believe that that player is doing better/worse than what he is capable of, rather than what could be expected of a random player in the same situation.

        Let's go back to someone like KdB, who scores a lot of goals from long-range shots and FKs. I'm sure we all agree that his accuracy and power from range is almost unparalleled in the PL; as a result, he scores far more 'difficult' goals than other players: if he scores 50% of the time in situations when the average player could only achieve a 25% success. If he scores from only those shots all season then he outperforms the (not his) XG by 100%. Many of those looking at just the stats would assume that he is due to revert to the mean, but the mean is for other people. The mean is literally the middle of the road, based on an average of all attempts by everyone in the same position.

        It works the other way around too. Some players are simply not clinical enough, despite the quality of the chances that their other skills, or those of their teammates, create for them. Shane Long is I think a classic example - he seems to lack the composure and scores, say, the inverse of the example above, perhaps half of the chances the average player in that position might.

        So what I am thinking is that for certain players for certain metrics, XG is a red herring. The best players have to outperform their XG in order to be the top players. Aguero has to slot home those shots from the impossible angles, the instinctive chips, the impudent backheels, because being able to do better than the average player in the same situation makes him one of the best players in the world. To look at his data and say “he scored x and he should only have scored 2/3x, I don't think he’ll keep it up” might be the wrong way to look at things. In fact, it might be the opposite, if you know that a player is performing at XG level and you know he's a top player, you can probably bet on there being better yet to come.

        I think XG is often best used as an indicator of what the quality of chances which the player is being presented with, by which I mean, if a striker has an XG of 10 over 5 games, there is a very good chance that he is being presented with excellent chances by his teammates (or the opposition) regardless of whether he scored some, all, or none of those chances in that 5-game spell.

        1. Make Arrows Green Again
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Aaaand I see that Maximus Bonimus Pointimus made a similar point above whilst I was writing this post. Oh well, here it is in more detail anyway....

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            I prefer the way you said it tbf 🙂

            1. Make Arrows Green Again
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              Ha! you're too kind 🙂

        2. 3 A
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Agree with this. The best in the world can outperform all players by dribbling from his own half . Thats what Messi did.

          Top players always have to overperform the usual XG.

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Yeah we all knew that one kid at school who could take on an entire team single-handed. Those kids probably outscored their XG by a factor of 10!

        3. Goonsquad245
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          "I think XG is often best used as an indicator of what the quality of chances which the player is being presented with, by which I mean, if a striker has an XG of 10 over 5 games, there is a very good chance that he is being presented with excellent chances by his teammates (or the opposition) regardless of whether he scored some, all, or none of those chances in that 5-game spell."

          Nail on the head with this last paragraph - it's exactly what it's a measure of.

          It's obviously very important to take into account career under/over-performance (to a point) - but it's also very important to understand what's sustainable and what isn't.

          Messi overperforms xG by roughly 20% over the past 6 seasons - that feels like a pretty good upper limit to me given his obvious ability. Aguero for example is at roughly 5% (and I think we can all agree Aguero is a pretty decent finisher...).

          I don't think anyone thinks KDB will revert to the mean next season - he's a quality player and will likely always overperform xG in some capacity unless he is unlucky - but it remains to be seen whether he can sustain the *same* level of overperformance.

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Thanks, wish I had proof-read my post better btw!

            That's really interesting by the way about Aguero. Without recourse to data at all I would have assumed he would be at around 15% 'overachievement ' and Messi would be on around 25%. I suppose that shows a.) how good Messi really is and b.) just how good players are at the top level - Aguero consistently 'only' performs at 5% above the base rate and yet his goal record is excellent. Again, in this case, it would kind of suggest that most decent players would be able to score most of the opportunities he is being presented with, but I suppose that this doesn't factor in movement off the ball and the work he does to ensure that he gets on the end of good chances.

            Finally, if the best players in the league can only outperform the league average by 5% over several years, it does make you wonder if you can read anything *at all* into their short-medium term performance against expectations.

            1. Goonsquad245
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              Kane is actually around 20% too (which kind of makes sense to me, as I do think Kane is an unbelievable finisher) - but the point kinda stands in terms of that being an upper limit.

              With Aguero - I absolutely agree that a lot of his output is due to his movement and the quality of the players around him (which can be borne out in the stats - BC/xG etc).

              It is very very hard to read into short-medium term performance - all we can do is get an indication of the reason/justification for the increase/decrease in performance (more/less chances per game, change of position etc). If there isn't one, it's likely just variance - but sometimes that variance can last for an entire season!

              1. Make Arrows Green Again
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 28 days ago

                Actually the thing with Aguero and his movement has got me thinking some more: Again this is an exaggeration but it bears consideration: imagine if your pace, anticipation and movement off the ball as a striker means you only ever get 2 yard tap-ins. You don't need to attempt any other kind of shot because you know your teammates will provide and you will keep scoring them. If a 2-yard tap-in is a 90% XG, it would be impossible to exceed expected goals by more than around 10%, no matter how good you were.

                It's not too much of a stretch to say that in some senses this is Aguero at City, with the quality of service he is given. Great player, limited by how far he could exceed XG by his own (and his team's) brilliance.

                1. Goonsquad245
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 28 days ago

                  Really really good point/illustration - and I guess this is why it's so hard to outperform xG sustainably over a decent sample of goals/xG (i.e whilst maintaining a good level of output in real terms at the same time)

                  The opposite to that example would be if someone only took free kicks and was very good at them - you'd likely see a very good level of xG overperformance, but the xG/goals would still be low in absolute terms...

        4. pingissimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Excellent post

          Certain players defeat XG surely. But the Shane Long point is equally relevant to me. Any single metric taken in isolation is only going to really apply fully if the player in question is average for that metric. More or less by definition every player is somewhere on a spectrum for any given metric and only by chance average.

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Cheers! re the Shane Long point too, an important thing to add is that we as experienced FPL managers carry an informal mental model in our heads about certain players and what they are capable of. It would by now take a sensational scoring streak from Long to make me consider him, ditto, Redmond, Lamela, Willian to an extent etc etc, because they have been around long enough for us to know what their ceiling is. We know they won't explode and, if they do, that it won't last for long.

        5. Netley Lucas
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Exactly. Even some experts are saying Kev is lucky and Bobby unlucky because they're over/under the stats but they don't understand (what they're talking about). Good post.

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Yes, re Bobby, I don't watch much if any football weirdly, I tend to go more off stats, radio commentaries and FFS chatter ( 🙂 ) but my understanding is that he is an outstanding link-up player and that he does a lot of good work for the team. That means a.) he doesn't need to be a good finisher but gets close enough to the action to always have a chance of a low-grade attacking return and b.) because of his main role as advanced provider, perhaps he mostly takes on shots as a last resort when a move is breaking down and there is no teammate in space, limiting his own chances against XG. There are so many factors at play other than just the record showing that a shot was taken and it did/didn't result in a goal.

            1. Greek Freak
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              Firmino is an interesting example because he outperformed his xG in his first three years at Liverpool.

              Then in 18/19 he underperformed just a little bit, and this past season by a lot. This coincides of course with Liverpool becoming almost unbeatable, which leads me to think it might be something to do with a change in style, along with the emergence of Mane as an elite goalscorer. (that last part is pure speculation of course, it could be just correlation)

        6. Boywiththesoupdragontattoo
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Makes sense to me, consistent over / underperformance of xG is to be expected on some level as the particularly clinical or wasteful players will be in the tails of the distribution (on which they base the “average” players who faced those opportunities in the past).

          Related to my question below, to be vastly different in xA is a little more surprising (unless you are consistently setting up players in the tails of the distribution which seems less likely).

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Yes whilst I said XG incorporated XA and XGI I don't really think I thought about that very much in my post. There are similar factors at play, certainly: if you have a player on the team who can beat the opposition's defence on his own then you have a good chance of an assist every time you make the most routine pass to him, but that's a bit of an exaggerated example to be sure.

            Taking Bruno's low XA rate against actual, it comes down to having good finishers ahead of him, and particularly the mercurial Greenwood (as discussed above) to tuck away half-chances. But I wonder whether big chances created isn't a better indicator of assist potential over the long term. Actual assists are IMO some of the most erratic statistics because an assist could be a perfect slide rule pass for a round-the-keeper tap in, or it could be a lumped clearance, or a simple pass in the assister's own half to a goalscorer who does all the work themselves (Son in the 5-0 vs Burnley for example).

            1. Make Arrows Green Again
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              Actually the more I think about expected assists the more I think they might be fairly meaningless across the board from a fantasy perspective for precisely this eccentricity of what actually constitutes a fantasy assist, compared to a goal which is much more defined and can only reliably be attempted in certain areas of the pitch. Any random pass could end up being an assist, but a lot more intent has to go into shooting on goal, especially as it will likely end up losing possession. When I renew my membership I will have a look at how accurate expected assists really worked out for 2019-2020.

              1. Boywiththesoupdragontattoo
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 28 days ago

                Totally agree. There feels like a lot more caveats to the xA numbers to the point they become almost meaningless.

        7. Sgt Frank Drebin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          I think xG models should be corrected for player's historical performance. And maybe some are, but the free one from understat is probably not. Even the best players in the world do not overperform xG that much, for example Auba before this season never actually overperformed xG (according to Understat). Aguero historically overperforms xG but not that much, 1 or goals per season. There are only couple of players who massively overperform regulary, Kane, Messi, Coutinho before he moved to Barca...

      12. Boywiththesoupdragontattoo
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        Two Man City questions, is Sterling’s xA (-6.2) primarily the Jesus effect (xG -7) or is there something more complicated at play do we think?

        Also, do you expect Aguero take pens back from KdB?

        My intuition says that Aguero playing shares the points more widely, but I wonder if (related to the first question) his overall impact is to boost certain players points by more than he “takes”.

        1. Flaming Flamingo
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          In answer to your first question, I'd say it's a mix of bad luck and probably to some extent the Jesus effect. Although xA is a lot more volatile and unpredictable than xG and is less robust a measure in general IMO.

          My expectation is that KDB will keep pens as long he keeps scoring the majority of them. I actually think in spite of Jesus' terrible finishing that his playing style actually enables Sterling to score more goals. KDB on the other hand, being primarily an assister, may benefit more from Aguero being on the pitch. That's just a gut feeling though, no stats to back it up.

          1. Boywiththesoupdragontattoo
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Interesting though on Jesus’ playing style. Somehow I didn’t consider that. Cheers for the reply. The first couple of City pens this season will be interesting to follow.

        2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          If you look at Sterling's split of his XG & Particularly Big Chances in away games vs. home game it was absolutely mental going into GW30

          Prior to the restart i remember posting the details - it's probably lost now, but long story short he had something like 23 big chances away from home, compared to 3 big chances at home - and his XG followed suit (His XG deltas were still bad in both blocks of data, because he had been just wasting so many of those big chances regardless of whether they were home or away)

          But I honestly can't remember ever seeing such a stark *improvement* in a players performance away from home (Maybe some of the palace guys had similar last season to be fair)

          So logically he went and got 36 points in the 3 home games immediately after that 🙂

          A total contradiction of his trailing home XG/Big chances numbers leading into those 3 games

          1. Boywiththesoupdragontattoo
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            That’s a helpful reminder! One of my takeaways from this season was “more stats needed” but I can see myself going the other way towards “past performance is a perfect predictor of future performance”.

      13. Berbs
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        On the face of it, it seems like there will be a wider range of premium assets next season and those nearing premium prices.

        Tier 1 - Premium players who will be in nearly all teams.

        TAA, KDB, Salah, Bruno.

        Tier 2 - Premium players who are viable alternatives to the above.

        Robbo, Sterling, Mane, Kane, Aubameyang, Aguero.

        Tier 3 - Players on the cusp of premium.

        Pulisic, Mahrez, Rashford, Werner, Jimenez, Vardy, Ings.

        So my question is how can FPL adjust the game to allow us to pick players from tier 2/3 to go with tier 1?

        Here are my suggestions:

        - Alisson, Ederson, DDG, Kepa, Lloris, Leno, Pope, Patricio, Henderson 5m.
        - All other starting GKs 4.5m.
        - A wider range of defenders at 4.5m. We saw a fair few defenders, including CBs, bumped up to 5m this season.
        - Premium cap. No player above X amount; I think 11m would be ideal but 12m would be fair.
        - Not pricing players on potential. I file the likes of Pulisic and Werner in this category.

        One thing I wouldn't want to see is a budget increase, keeping it 100m is fine. I would like to be able to choose from a wider pool of players and incorporate players from tier 3 into my team.

        1. Flaming Flamingo
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Might be an unpopular opinion, but I don't think FPL should find ways to help managers accommodate premium players. I'd even go as far as saying that not being able to afford many of the players we want is a good thing for the game. It leads to more diversity in teams and requires managers to resort to options from teams lower down the league.

          1. Greek Freak
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            I don't think it's an unpopular opinion at all - lots will agree with this.

            All teams would be the same if people could afford premium goalkeepers and those tier 2 and 3 guys to go with the tier 1 premiums.

          2. Berbs
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            How many managers do you realistically going Sterling over KDB for example? Or not having a Salah to accommodate a Pulisic + Jimenez double up? Of course you may be right, I just don't think the hardcore active players would do that tbh.

            1. Greek Freak
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 28 days ago

              I think quite a few? Sterling over KDB was a great choice post-lockdown for example. Similarly, Pulisic and Jimenez would have a great shot at outscoring Salah and a 6.5 attacker. (as long as you nail the captain, but then again Salah was an overrated captain this past season)

            2. Major League Shocker
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 28 days ago

              If this is the case, and Salah is say, 90% owned in the top 10K, it indicates that Salah's price is not high enough. Or the price difference between him and lower-tier players is not large enough.

              If it takes pricing some players at 13.5 or 14m to stop them from being 90%+ owned in the top 10K, then do it. This should also promote ownership of Tier 3 players because, for example, people could not own all 3 of KDB, Salah, and Bruno and have to own Tier 3 players instead.

          3. JJO
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Exactly this

        2. Powers106
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          Out of curiosity, are there any of those highlighted players that are currently expected to miss the Sep.12th start?

          1. Berbs
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 28 days ago

            Potentially City, United and Wolves assets depending upon their European progression.

      14. Powers106
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 28 days ago

        This is not exactly an FPL question, but do any of you have recommendations for books about football strategy and tactics? (Note: audible books preferred, but kindle is fine too). They might even be very basic "starter" level - I've been watching WHU since 1996 - but I grew up in the USA so American football is the sport I know the most intricately and I think it would be interesting to dig into some of the main tactics such as why certain formations are better for certain teams, and even more obscure strategies and rules - that sort of thing (and hopefully in an entertaining book)! I listen to a lot of podcasts like the one from here and also the Guardian podcast, and sometimes Football Daily, etc, but rather than just Google it, I thought I'd ask you guys first! Thanks for any suggestions! Cheers!

        1. Make Arrows Green Again
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 28 days ago

          It's not a book but I literally just this morning discovered this website and it looks really interesting:

          https://totalfootballanalysis.com/