Pro Pundits - Mark

How I’ll try to keep pace with the new smart thinkers in FPL this season

When I returned to Fantasy Football in 2006, a statistics fetish and the quest for one-upmanship over my rival Granville inspired this website and underpinned some high ranks in Fantasy Premier League. I got myself a flying start, an early advantage.

Almost fifteen years later, the pitch has been levelled. 

I have to admit, when Fantasy Football Scout became my universe, I buried my head and shut out the social media powered community that grew up around me. I built walls and obsessed about protecting what I had, forgoing likes and subscribers to keep my roof intact.

Now free of those concerns, I was shocked when I reared my head to look around. Both the depth and breadth of the FPL community is extraordinary, the amount of information and data being shared openly overwhelming. 

Eight million managers make a high rank that more difficult to achieve, but the explosion of new voices spraying knowledge and opinion far and wide raises the bar with each passing season. 

Metrics

Back in the day, I was among a few hundred who wandered trance-like down supermarket isles deliberating a four-point hit. Now there are thousands extending loo breaks to unfeasible lengths of time while they compare Sadio Mané (£12.0m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) for touches in the box. Like myself all those years ago, they have spreadsheets, irritated partners and an insatiable drive to succeed: a triple threat.

I need to raise and change my game if I’m to remain in their company. 

Too long in the tooth and arrogant to be told the latest do’s and don’ts or ten tips for success, I know the mechanics of the game and how to bend them to my advantage. To really improve, I need to look hard at myself, analyse my methods and learn from mistakes. 

I’ve always hurried away from FPL failure. I’m almost ashamed that dismal Gameweeks spark family tension in garden centres, so why would I ever dwell on every error? I bury mistakes to maintain an equilibrium. Forget that bad transfer, move on, greet the next deadline as a liquor to quickly drown my sorrows. 

That changes now. I should see my mistakes as an opportunity to learn more about how I play, to identify my favourite error traps and the bias at play when I run my eye over Match of the Day highlights or Goals Imminent tables.

Thanks to an almost catastrophic campaign in 2019/20, I have plenty to pick apart. I’ve learned to enjoy looking back and attempting to fathom my thought process behind each bad decision. But that’s just a post mortem; I need to attack this new season with this same analytical mindset. 

I have to be more inquisitive as each Gameweek rolls by, question and challenge each decision I make and develop methods that reveal a clear choice that I’m happy to take, not just one I’ve convinced myself is correct by brute-forcing fuzzy numbers and rose-tinted eye tests.  

You might have noticed that psychology is a popular buzzword right now, an emerging theme in the community that can be conveniently tucked away in a bulging box file labelled “overthinking”. 

But I’m convinced that something is afoot. When Magnus Carlsen, the world’s finest Chess player, hits the FPL top 100, we need to stop in our tracks and consider that there could be a new breed among us. 

I reckon your average Grandmaster spends more time pondering King to G7, rather than King to centre forward. So I might have the edge on Magnus when it comes to thinking time, I may even have more knowledge and data at my disposal. 

But does Magnus employ a logical method to his decisions and keep bias and emotion in check? Does he indulge in bouts of introspection and analysis of his judgement calls? Does he read all those psychology threads on Twitter with a knowing smile?

He’s the best chess player in the world. He does all the above and has a team of advisors doing it for him while he sleeps. 

These days everyone can get a glut of knowledge, information and data in their timeline with relative ease. But to work out how best to process it, how you learn to separate luck from skill and focus on improving the input, not dwell on the output, that might just be the new marginal gain. A fresh route to success.

After last season, I’ll give anything a go. 

Magnus must be petrified.  

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Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.”

1,076 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Flair
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Today's Matches

    Chelsea vs Brighton - Free to watch on the Chelsea FC website, with the amount of players out for Chelsea we're likely to see more starters today - most notably, Ziyech and Werner. Will be very useful to see how the Chelsea attack is shaping up, though I expect I'll be going with the two no matter how Chelsea play but it's nice to gain confidence early. Also going to be interesting to see how Brighton shape up, a 3 ATB with White, Lamptey wingback, and Trossard anywhere could be very intriguing. They also, unusually, face each other GW1.

    Arsenal vs Liverpool - In the CS, already been discussed but Arsenal's formation and tactics will be very intriguing here: 3-4-3, 4-3-3 could make an appearance. Auba at striker, Willian in the #10? From Liverpool we'll want to see how sharp they're looking or if they're still struggling without Henderson. Both teams should treat this as a competitive fixture.

    Both matches are 2 1/2 hours away from each other so you should be able to watch them back to back if you wish. Anything else people are looking for?

    1. Shark
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Yes, Zyech and Werner will be interesting.
      I just watched the Ipswich v Hammers highlights...
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbWiZOzXnz4
      Haller's hat trick goals were all sitters. The other chances 1 v 1 were tame efforts. Having said that, WH looked decent and Yarmalenko is one to monitor.

    2. Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      What I'm not looking at is form and fitness. I don't expect players to play at all well at this stage. I'm not even swayed by starters. It's formations and positions I'm looking at.

      1. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Exactly

      2. Sharkytect
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Why not form? If someone unexpected is looking super sharp, won't that catch your interest?

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Not really. Happens every pre-season with someone like Brewster going crazy pre-season only to never make the pitch. And if eg Ziyech looks great versus a half-fit, 0ff-the-pace Brighton side, what have you learned?

  2. pmletch
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Best 5.5 attacker?

    1. Lukakus Unit
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I asked this in a previous forum.

      Main candidates are ASM, Armstrong & Saka. Ritchie might be a good shout as well.

      1. pmletch
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Sorry attacker not midfielder

        1. Houldsworth Hatter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          The best is probably Connolly of Brighton but very little choice as most aren't nailed and Bamford couldn't bit a Cow’s backside with a banjo.

          1. pmletch
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            5 in midfield it is then

        2. Lukakus Unit
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Whoops! Misread that. Unless Brewster gets a loan, realistically, they're all garbage. K Davis and Bamford should be good for the odd point or two, but that's all you're likely to get at that price.

          1. pmletch
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            5 in the middle of the park then

            1. Andy_Social
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              Really nothing below 6.0
              5 in the middle, as you say.

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Keita

      1. No Professionals
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Really struggle with keita as a pick, will be rotated, subbed early, and blocks a pool spot.

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Bamford if you mean forward but he’s awful

      1. Carlton P
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Theyve just signed Rodrigo

    4. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Find the extra .5 plenty of options

  3. Tamagotchi Massacre
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    I'm finding this such a difficult season to settle on a basic structure. Generally the best value players according to least season priced for 2020/21 are ings, jiminez, martial and the four big hitting defenders. Everyone is focusing on midfielders but they've now taken over as the worst value, but the most essential re big hitting and captain hauls. Lots of little are talking about packing the midfield but at the moment the most sensible structure to me looks to be to have two definite big hitting mid captain options, even three is a push. And to spread the money out across premium defenders and 2/3 reliable strikers. Acknowledging that the 6.5 ish strikers COULD smash this to bits, but probably won't

    Am I imagining this odd paradox with the midfield swinging into focus while being the worst place to put your money

    In the old days we rarely would have played 3 massive strikers, usually even not 2. But we're trying to force it in midfield, despite the fact that big mids aren't really scoring any more than big strikers used to

    1. Houldsworth Hatter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      With the midfield having high scoring striker reclassified it suggests that will change. Auba and Rashford will get or be close to 20 goals each.

      1. Klaren
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Rashford scored 11 excluding penalties last season. Of course he could score more this season but I wouldn’t take it as a given that he’ll score close to 20.

        1. Houldsworth Hatter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          True it's not a given. I feel he improved after Bruno arrived but not looked at stats so I may well be wrong!

          1. Goonsquad245
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            The beauty is at 9.5 he doesn’t have to score 20 goals to be decent value 🙂

            1. Tamagotchi Massacre
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              He does look to be a reclassification that will genuinely be pushed up into a definite spot. IF he repeats his season he'll hit 200, and that's decent for 9.5

    2. Goonsquad245
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Good post - I posted something similar the other day.

      I’m considering 4-3-3 with my cheapest regular starting mid being 9m, but I have 2x 6-6.5m strikers in that because I think it’s important for balance and I think they’ll wipe the floor with midfielders at a similar price.

      1. Tamagotchi Massacre
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        It's the agony of choice. From browsing a lot of posts and teams i'm getting the sense that more people this year are going to fall foul of 'wanting them all' because of the glut of midfield options in the 10-12 range. There's six of them and all look to be at worst good choices, at best crucial.

        Auba being reclassified would just bring his total up to what should really be expected of a 12m player. He's not suddenly become essential.

        If Liverpool start slow but strong, grinding them out, big midfields will be shattered by defensive value

        I'm at a bit of a loss

        1. Goonsquad245
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Calculate your expectations and back yourself.

          I’m excited about this season, but also apprehensive because it’s the first time in a while my thoughts have strongly differed from the ‘consensus’. Could go one of two ways. Don’t think I’ll die wondering though.

    3. Le Bluff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I'm having similar issues with structure.

      But what I've thought about it is how I always seem to revert to a cheap defence by GW 4/5 after the form MID/FWD players have shown themselves.

      Therefore, I'm looking at something like this:

      4.5 / 4.0
      TAA / Dier / 4.5 / 4.5 / 4.0
      Salah / Auba / Alli / Soucek / 4.5
      Werner / Martial / Mitrovic

      By keeping my money further up the pitch, I feel that I'll be able to react to the bandwagons easier, and I've realised that it's harder for defenders to punish you. For instance, I have easy moves to the likes of Pulisic/Greenwood with Alli, and Jimenez/Ings with Werner or Martial.

      Last year, I started with a defence of TAA, Robbo, Zinchenko and Digne. And I basically had to wildcard out of that to react to the likes of KDB, Pukki etc.

      1. Good Times
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Similar situation last season wit. Taa van dijk double up

      2. Lukakus Unit
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Always good to have a (semi-)big hitter in D, M & F to catch form players without 2 transfers.

        1. Le Bluff
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          In defence, I like to have a premium (TAA) and then a low-mid priced player who I can play every week for the foreseeable (Dier). And then rotate between the 4.5s/4.0.

          History has told me that it's difficult to spot defensive form players and teams early doors, whereas it's easier to see attacking players who are hitting form. That's why I like to be able to react quickly to this season's Pukki/Ashley Barnes/Mason Mount etc.

    4. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Love this, well said. All this midfield focus is blinding people to the excellent striker options we've got available along with their higher prices restricting quality investment elsewhere. I'm playing a 4-3-3 with 1 premium mid, 3 premium strikers and couldn't be happier with it. Plenty of captaincy options across the board and an excellent defense to supplement it.

    5. Jay Jay Okocha
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Agree 100%. I wish I could fit in Werner, Martial, Ings, and Jimenez.

      Of course this is all moot when Messi arrives.

    6. Sharkytect
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I'm finding this. Every time i "tweak" my team i am taking money out of the midfield

  4. Lukakus Unit
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Which of these two?

    a. Bavies & Willian
    b. Doherty & Barnes

    1. Good Times
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      A

    2. Brooksy86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      B

  5. Good Times
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    How's this for a one/two week team, usually do an early WC

    McCarthy
    Taa Justin saliba
    Auba Salah Son Armstrong
    Werner Ings Mitrovic

    1. Lukakus Unit
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Looks good all around, although I'd keep tabs on whether Saliba will start. Leicester's D might be a bit ropey at the beginning of the season with Chilwell gone and no Evans/Pereira.

      1. Good Times
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Cheers, yeah saliba is monitored. Good call on Justin but in that 4.5 bracket I feel going into gw 1 he still is the best bet for any returns

    2. gunthourinho
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I'm not convinced by Werner at all

      1. Jay Jay Okocha
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Have you ever seen him play?

  6. pmletch
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    A) Son
    B) Ziyech

    I already have Werner

    1. Houldsworth Hatter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      A

    2. Good Times
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      A

      1. Lukakus Unit
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        A

    3. gunthourinho
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I'd be avoiding both ziyech and werner

  7. Fernando Torres
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    A) Salah + Vinagre + Mitro
    B) Ziyech + Ings + Doherty

    1. Houldsworth Hatter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      a

    2. Good Times
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      A

    3. dshv
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      A

    4. Our Man Charlie
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      B looks exciting 🙂

  8. beastie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Anyone know the likelihood of Brewster going to Sheffield United? If he does he's essential for me.

    1. Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      They want him; Klopp's reluctant to let him go. Might hinge on how he performs today.

      1. beastie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I'd love him to stay at Anfield as he is a brilliant goalscorer but he won't get much gametime. At Sheffield he's guaranteed minutes and will score a few. For 4.5m he could be the bargain of the FPL season.

  9. Red Red Robins
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Good morning all, time for a dilemma, been thinking about this last night and can see both benefits

    I was - KWP, TAA, Doherty, Davies and MItchel with a cheap 4.5 midfielder
    Im now
    KWP, TAA, Robertson, Mitchel. Vinagre (or another 4.5 depending on signings) with Soucek in midfield

    Which do you prefer? I like the idea of keeping TAA and Robbo as set and leaves and alternating my 4.5s, plus gives me Soucek as a better bench player.
    But i do think Spurs will be better defensively this year, and also am i going overkill with TAA and Robbo?

    1. UnluckyXI
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      I currently prefer what you had, mainly because of fixtures.

      I think soucek will be a steal at 5.0 but other than his opening fixture he's got an awful run of games which means you'll probably not risk playing him so may as well have a 5
      4.5 mid

      The other option is to play B with a 4.5 mid over soucek then use that 0.5 elsewhere or on some some new signings when added to the game

      1. Red Red Robins
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Thanks for your response, yeah i agree. Just finding a 4.5 that is any good is quite tough

  10. Houldsworth Hatter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 22 days ago

    Leeds have completed the signing off Rodrigo according to sky.

    1. Lukakus Unit
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Wonder what his price will be. If it's 6.0, he could be an option.

      1. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Must be. He's supposed to be an upgrade to 5.5 Bamford. He's not going to be more expensive than Mitrovic. I'd still avoid - his reputation as a deadly striker isn't much greater than Bamford's as far as I can tell.

        1. Ron_Swanson
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          He scored 4 goals in 27 matches last season...

        2. Sgt Frank Drebin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Doesn't he have an awful scoring record? Like he only scored more than 10 goals in a season once? I suspect he is more of a Firmino like striker than a goalscorer.

    2. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      https://youtu.be/UEKsB5kv7K4

      Lots of FPL potential

      1. Lukakus Unit
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I'm generally leery of Spanish strikers though. Morata, Soldado and Sandro have all been massive flops in recent years.

        1. Jay Jay Okocha
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Counterpoint: Agueri, Torres, Costa. And don't forget the immortal Michu

          1. Jay Jay Okocha
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Aguero *

            Fat fingers, tiny phone

          2. Lukakus Unit
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Aguero's Argentine, Costa is Brazilian and Michu was a midfielder.

            1. Ron_Swanson
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              Ha!

            2. Jay Jay Okocha
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              Thought you meant Spanish league, obviously.

    3. BarryManilows
        1 month, 22 days ago

        His stats are grim

      • UnluckyXI
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Last season 4 goals, 9 assists in 27 games over 1890 mins.

        So I think in fpl terms maybe
        50pts playing
        16pts for Gs
        27pts for As
        I'll chuck in 10 boys

        So that's 103 which works out at 4.9 its per 90, probably a bit more per game if he gets subbed after 60 mins.

        If he replicates that 6.5 would be fair but given he's playing in a lower position team in a new league it should be lower

    4. Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      It's gradually dawning on me that every GW, including GW1, there's a real chance one asset in your squad is going to test positive for covid. It's therefore highly advantageous to keep a full active bench (even including the back-up keeper, ideally). We can get away from it in GW1 as we can make changes if we hear breaking news up to 90mins before the Fulham - Arsenal game, but after that it could cost you a late hit.

      In normal years, it's rare to call up your 2nd or 3rd sub, but I suspect for now we ought to take the new normal into account.

      1. Lukakus Unit
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Players are only testing positive now because they're coming back from vacation. Once they go back into their training bubbles, the likelihood of this happening will go down.

        Plus, Pogba was already a virus.

      2. Vertigo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I don't think there's single no-budget player worth owning anyway this year, bar Button (and only then if you own Ryan).

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Yes, Ryan-Button actually comes into play here. I'm thinking of leaning towards 4.5 defenders and 5.5 midfielders on the bench. Normally these would be deemed wasted cash, but this year maybe not.

          Fair point, LU, about holiday returnees. However, as I posted earlier, the condensed schedule will also lead to more injuries and rotation, and in addition the PL is about to reconsider the 5-sub rule, so there are numerous reasons to have a better bench this time, i think.

        2. Lukakus Unit
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Steer/Nyland should be an option the first 5+ weeks of the season.

          1. dunas_dog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Expect week 1

            1. dunas_dog
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              *Except

      3. Jay Jay Okocha
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Moreover, I'm anticipating a number of postponements / subsequent double game weeks. For that matter, I wouldn't be surprised if the league was temporarily suspended altogether.

        People are seriously underestimating the potential for scheduling chaos this season

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          I think all the midweek slots are occupied for DGWs in the first half of the season, unless teams get knocked out of cups promptly.

          As to your second point - that would be completely out of our control and unplannable. I'm trying to think pragmatically about what we can do to get an edge over less thoughtful rivals.

          1. Jay Jay Okocha
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Not planning an early WC is completely in our control and seems like a good place to start.

            And yes, I realize that the midweek slots are accounted for; that's exactly my point. We could see games postponed with no clear rescheduling date.

      4. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I'm gonna call wait and see on this one, I suspect the PL and clubs will make sure their valuable assets are available to play and remain disciplined as we saw during lockdown. Though I've got a fully playing bench so no issues there

    5. Sgt Frank Drebin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      It's interesting how unpredictable penalties are. It probably depends on the number of runs into opposition box but I think much of it is still due to pure randomness. Here is interesting site with penalties stats:https://www.myfootballfacts.com/premier-league/all-time-premier-league/premier-league-penalty-statistics/

      So when it comes to Fernandes if he keeps his rate of 0.2 non penalty xG and 0.2 xA per game we can expect around 8 goals and assists excluding penalties. Not amazing, but how many penalties can we expect? 14 again is almost impossible as it was an all time penalties awarded for a team in a single season record. Can't find what's a season average but let's say 6. He would then finish a season on 14 goals and 8 assists. That would result in 14x5 pts for goals + 24 for assists + 76 for minutes played (assuming he plays in all games), let's assume 13 CS points and don't know how to calculate bonus points but I think we can expect around 30 bonus points. So that gives 213 points. If United gets 8 penalties then he would get 223 points + let's assume 1 bonus point for every goal so 225. For 10 penalties that would be 237 points. However, don't know his historical penalties conversion so if we assume an average of 0.8 penalties scored that would make 4.8 penalties scored out of 6 penalties, 6.4 out of 8 and 8 out of 10. Adjusting for penalties missed that would make around (can we assume 2 bonus points lost per penalty missed? Don't know really but let's do it):
      201.4 points for 6 penalties
      210.8 for 8 penalties
      219 for 10 penalties

      I could have make some mistakes calculating though. Do you think those assumptions were fair? And most importantly do you think he is a good value for 10.5m if he gets between 200 and 220 points?

      1. Lukakus Unit
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Barring an injury, I think Bruno is a lock for 200 points, which makes him a definite buy at 10.5 IMO.

        1. gunthourinho
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          He isn't a lock if you compare him to other pricy options available and you can't have them all. Rushford offers great value as a mid, plus De Bruyne and Aubameyang will pick up more points for sure

          1. Lukakus Unit
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Aside from TAA, he's the only player under 11.0 I fully expect to get 200+ points.

            1. gunthourinho
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 22 days ago

              That's madness to say he is likely to get more points than De Bruyne or Aubameyang. In fact, I think Utd are in gor a poor season this year and their is a good argument to suggest he will find it far harder to pick up points as teams work him out. No surprise factor anymore.

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Bruno is an absolute lock in in my team and a little underpriced in my eyes

        1. Kobayashi
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Likewise.

      3. mynameisq
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I think we haven't seen the best of him from open play yet, he carries a massive goal threat. Don't forget utd were one of the only teams who basically had to play the exact 11 in every game after the restart which made them tired and start to lag

        Bruno is underpriced for sure and the penalties will definitely keep coming, even 7 for the whole season is enough to make him a great option

      4. Goonsquad245
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I like your analysis - sound reasoning. Remember though, he won’t play every minute of every game, so your goals/assists from open play might need to come down somewhat. Might be accounted for by ‘expected’ overperformance, but might not.

        Agree on the pens - 5/6 feels about right to me in terms of expectation.

        I’d expect him to be pushing 200 points this year - but that’s not good enough for me when you have other assets doing similar for cheaper and Salah/Sterling/KDB blowing him out the water in the captaincy stakes.

        1. Sgt Frank Drebin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Good points - that was more of a quick analysis - and I am sure it could be better made. It would be so good to know his xG and xA stats from Sporting but Understat doesn't cover Portuguese league unfortunately.

          Yeah I agree - when you account for captaincy he is probably much worse option than other premium players despite costing 1m or 1.5m less. Son and Rashford should imho pretty much match his total points in a season (barring injuries) and they cost 1.5m and 1m less.

          1. Goonsquad245
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Yeah I’m nitpicking more than anything - definitely well thought through analysis.

            Those were exactly the two I had in mind 🙂

    6. LarkyTown
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Good to have you back on here Mark

    7. Kobayashi
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 22 days ago

      If you already had Bruno, would you go for Jimenez or Martial up front?

      1. Lukakus Unit
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Do you like steady returns (Jimenez) or peaks and troughs (Martial)?

        United have the best schedule through week 11 (barring the blank in week 1), but they're a thin squad competing on two fronts while Wolves are only competing in EPL.

        1. pingissimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Martial is exceptionally consistent too. Has been for a couple of seasons anyway - blanks from injury but otherwise very consistent.

          Rashford is the in and out United option

        2. Kobayashi
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          That does seem to be the distinction between the two, so I'd probably say the peaks and troughs of Martial.

          Wolves are only competing in the EPL as you say, but I'm not sure how much the Doherty sale is going to affect them in terms of creativity, and Martial seems hungry for goals (judging by interviews, training clips and his general reaction at being substituted). Plus, it is easier to downgrade Martial from 9m to 8.5m if necessary!

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Martial for 2-3 and then I may swap to Jimenez for 4-7

    8. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Anyone know who the best rotating captain options are. Obv KdB and Fernandes look decent.

      The others?

      1. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        No such thing. But there is 'Upside Chasing'!

        1. Tamagotchi Massacre
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          the absolute pinnacle of gobblajook

    9. Rohirrims
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Brilliant to have this back, was always one thing i looked forward to reading in time between the site updated for a new gameweek.

    10. MarkFLR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      This was great and refreshing Mark 🙂 Perfect Saturday Morning pondering

    11. Chris_H
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Anyone else realised that with Sot vs Spurs and Chelsea vs Liv in GW2 they have a whole load of players in two games?

      I know it shouldn’t matter but it makes me want to rip my team up!

      1. Berbs
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Very much considering Werner to Martial.

        If Sheffield get Brewster, I could bench Bruno and do above move.

      2. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Don't care

        Though I would have 8 players playing

      3. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Nope

        May be on 4 only - 3 if I get bold on keeper

      4. FOO FIGHTER
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Wont be cleanies in Liv vs CHE but haul potential from attacking assets.

    12. vova
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Thoughts on Ziyech? I think he is a pretty good 'differential' as he will be the creative force in an attacking team with decent fixtures. I prefer him quite a bit to the alternatives at a similar price range. Greenwood is the only other clear alternative but he isn't fully nailed on IMO.

      1. Kobayashi
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        I've recently rebuilt my team to fit him. I think today's friendly will be a good chance to see him in action, but I included Ziyech in my Champions League fantasy team and he didn't disappoint. Given the pace of Werner up front, I expect him to be whipping in crosses to him all day as well as being on the majority of corners and free kicks.

        Plus if it doesn't work out, it's a relatively easy shift in that price bracket to Pulisic or Greenwood for example.

      2. Eat my goal!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Not really a differential at 22% ownership

      3. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Been in my team since day 1. World class creator in a dangerous and offensive Chelsea system that will score goals and has 3 easy fixtures in the first 4. Locked in

        1. Treadstone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Good stats in the Dutch league and a few good games in Europe does not make him World class imo.He could do really well but I think I'll wait and see.

        2. gunthourinho
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          He might not even start

      4. Super Saints
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Already owned by 22%, not really a differential

    13. zdrojo187
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Valencia confirm agreement with Leeds United over club record £30m transfer of Spain striker Rodrigo Moreno...Bamford benched...

      1. FOO FIGHTER
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        His stats really are not that great. I won't be rushing to get him.

      2. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Not necessarily, Leeds fan saying Rodrigo could go out to the wing. Bielsa prefers to trust his men early anyways

      3. gunthourinho
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        If anyone was pickingbamford anyway, they need their heads examining.

    14. fcsaltyballs
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      How’s this? Re the defence, WOL LEI AVL (2 out of 3) rotate really well, hence the selections... 0.5 itb

      McCarthy Nyland
      TAA Vinagre Justin Targett Johnson
      Salah Aubameyang Son Greenwood Armstrong
      Werner Mitrovic Brewster

      Thanks

      1. xHaTr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        That 0.5 ITB should be spent upgrading your defence a bit, could get Ben Davies over Justin

    15. Lukebeckett09
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Any changes to this?

      Ramsdale

      Davies-TAA-Dann

      Soucek-Son-Salah-Auba-Eze

      Kane-Mitro

      Nyland-Salina-lascelles-Brewster

      Any advice is appreciated

      1. Lukakus Unit
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Could be good, but who are you planning to swap Soucek to after GW1?

        1. Lukebeckett09
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Bench. Auba to Fernandes GW2, Soucek to Foden GW3?

          1. Lukakus Unit
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Could work. Ramsdale and Eze are a bit punty, but both have upside.

    16. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 22 days ago

      Leeds sign striker Edgar Cani on loan from Catania

      https://twitter.com/lufc/status/562274423378821120?s=21

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Under strengths you’ve put proof reading

        1. Inazuma X1
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Oops lol

          1. Inazuma X1
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Someone has to delete this, my bad

      2. Chandler Bing
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        Why are we talking about this? Suarez just moved to Barcelona.

      3. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        What's he like then?

    17. myskisonni
        1 month, 22 days ago

        A) Mout+Trent

        B) Alli+VVD

        1. Lukakus Unit
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          A. A. A million times A.

          1. Kobayashi
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 22 days ago

            A million plus one for A.

      • Shark Team
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 22 days ago

        My current plan for the midfield:
        Salah Auba Son Ziyech Soucek

        1.0m£ in the bank to do:

        Gw2: Auba to Fernandes(C)
        Gw3: Son to KDB

      • Nudger
          1 month, 22 days ago

          From GW3...
          A) Fernandes & Soucek
          B) Greenwood & Ziyech

          What do we reckon?

          1. Kobayashi
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 22 days ago

            A.

        • Kobayashi
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 22 days ago

          I've settled on a team I'm happy with (yes, I'll still be tinkering I'm sure), but the downside is that it requires two 4m defenders - currently Mitchell and Johnson - on the bench. Is this viable, or would one of them need to be at least 4.5m for cover?

          1. Andy_Social
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            Too risky for me. I feel I need 2 active benchies. With Johnson, look at his fixtures. From GW2 even if starts every game, he'll be lucky to come away with 0 points.

            1. Kobayashi
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 22 days ago

              That's true, but he would be on my bench throughout all of those fixtures barring any sudden injuries of course (apart from the opening GW vs Newcastle at home). I can't really find 0.5m I'd be willing to take from elsewhere at the moment, but will keep an eye on the upcoming friendlies and Community Shield to see if that changes anything.

          2. Chandler Bing
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            As long as you have at least 1 playing bench player (a 4.5 mid perhaps) and are willing to play your 3 main defenders week in week out, you're good to go.

            1. Kobayashi
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 22 days ago

              I do indeed, so that's good to hear at least!

        • SDC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Favorite article of the week. Missed it a lot. Welcome Back The Preamble. Welcome Back Mark 🙂

        • No Professionals
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          The good thing is, that at this rate I will have had every player in a draft, so I can sit there on the first day of the season agonising over the fact “I had him” every time someone scores or assists.

          1. Chandler Bing
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 22 days ago

            You, me and everyone else on this site brother

        • Chandler Bing
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 22 days ago

          Really want Doherty move to be finalized ASAP if he really is moving. Need to see him for at least one game before I choose to invest in him.