Pro Pundits - Mark

How I’ll try to keep pace with the new smart thinkers in FPL this season

When I returned to Fantasy Football in 2006, a statistics fetish and the quest for one-upmanship over my rival Granville inspired this website and underpinned some high ranks in Fantasy Premier League. I got myself a flying start, an early advantage.

Almost fifteen years later, the pitch has been levelled. 

I have to admit, when Fantasy Football Scout became my universe, I buried my head and shut out the social media powered community that grew up around me. I built walls and obsessed about protecting what I had, forgoing likes and subscribers to keep my roof intact.

Now free of those concerns, I was shocked when I reared my head to look around. Both the depth and breadth of the FPL community is extraordinary, the amount of information and data being shared openly overwhelming. 

Eight million managers make a high rank that more difficult to achieve, but the explosion of new voices spraying knowledge and opinion far and wide raises the bar with each passing season. 

Metrics

Back in the day, I was among a few hundred who wandered trance-like down supermarket isles deliberating a four-point hit. Now there are thousands extending loo breaks to unfeasible lengths of time while they compare Sadio Mané (£12.0m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) for touches in the box. Like myself all those years ago, they have spreadsheets, irritated partners and an insatiable drive to succeed: a triple threat.

I need to raise and change my game if I’m to remain in their company. 

Too long in the tooth and arrogant to be told the latest do’s and don’ts or ten tips for success, I know the mechanics of the game and how to bend them to my advantage. To really improve, I need to look hard at myself, analyse my methods and learn from mistakes. 

I’ve always hurried away from FPL failure. I’m almost ashamed that dismal Gameweeks spark family tension in garden centres, so why would I ever dwell on every error? I bury mistakes to maintain an equilibrium. Forget that bad transfer, move on, greet the next deadline as a liquor to quickly drown my sorrows. 

That changes now. I should see my mistakes as an opportunity to learn more about how I play, to identify my favourite error traps and the bias at play when I run my eye over Match of the Day highlights or Goals Imminent tables.

Thanks to an almost catastrophic campaign in 2019/20, I have plenty to pick apart. I’ve learned to enjoy looking back and attempting to fathom my thought process behind each bad decision. But that’s just a post mortem; I need to attack this new season with this same analytical mindset. 

I have to be more inquisitive as each Gameweek rolls by, question and challenge each decision I make and develop methods that reveal a clear choice that I’m happy to take, not just one I’ve convinced myself is correct by brute-forcing fuzzy numbers and rose-tinted eye tests.  

You might have noticed that psychology is a popular buzzword right now, an emerging theme in the community that can be conveniently tucked away in a bulging box file labelled “overthinking”. 

But I’m convinced that something is afoot. When Magnus Carlsen, the world’s finest Chess player, hits the FPL top 100, we need to stop in our tracks and consider that there could be a new breed among us. 

I reckon your average Grandmaster spends more time pondering King to G7, rather than King to centre forward. So I might have the edge on Magnus when it comes to thinking time, I may even have more knowledge and data at my disposal. 

But does Magnus employ a logical method to his decisions and keep bias and emotion in check? Does he indulge in bouts of introspection and analysis of his judgement calls? Does he read all those psychology threads on Twitter with a knowing smile?

He’s the best chess player in the world. He does all the above and has a team of advisors doing it for him while he sleeps. 

These days everyone can get a glut of knowledge, information and data in their timeline with relative ease. But to work out how best to process it, how you learn to separate luck from skill and focus on improving the input, not dwell on the output, that might just be the new marginal gain. A fresh route to success.

After last season, I’ll give anything a go. 

Magnus must be petrified.  

Best players by position:

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

1,076 Comments Post a Comment
  1. It’s gonna Ben Mee
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    What 5.0 Chelsea defender will get most minutes?

    1. Nanoelektronicar
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      James.

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Am steering clear, will be rotation galore.

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Tilva

  2. MrCloppity
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    McCarthy
    TAA Soyuncu Walker- Peters Doherty
    Auba Mane Saka ASM Son
    Kane

    Button, Brewster, Davis, Johnson.

    0.5 ITB

    Auba for Fernandez GW 1 into 2
    Doherty to AWB Gw 2 into 3
    Son for debuyne 3 into 4

    GTG?

    1. Sharkytect
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Ooh, mane instead of salah. Any reason?

      I wouldn't plan transfers beyond gameweek 2 - anything can happen

  3. Tommy Tynans Left Shin Pad
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Is it me or is it really tricky to get a balanced, flexible squad? I have been away for a few days so I can reset myself, but now I'm.bqxk to exactly where I was last weekend!

    To start with, 2 questions:

    1. Son and Mitro or Soucek and Kane (currently on S&K)
    2. Any early 'nailed' 4.0 defs?

    Time is ticking!
    Thanks all

    1. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Not a fan of Soucek tbh so son and mitro out of those options.

      Apparently ben johnson 4m west ham defender has a decent chance of playing, apparently Ryan Fredericks is injured at the moment.

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I thought it's pretty easy to get a balanced team as long as you are not BBing.

      Soucek and Kane at start.

    3. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Common question that can only be answered when your team set up is known.
      Kane gives you an opportunity to move for Kun/Werner later and Son gives opportunities to a host of mids (Ziyech etc)

      1. Tommy Tynans Left Shin Pad
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks all. Food for for thought for sure

  4. lekalatch
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts here?

    McCarthy
    TAA Vinagre Justin Targett
    Salah Pulisic Son
    Vardy Ings Mitrovic

    Nyland Greenwood Stephens Ferguson

    0.5itb.
    Planning on getting Martial for Ings gw2. Then playing 3-4-3, getting Greenwood in for any of the 4.5 defs.

    1. Tommy Tynans Left Shin Pad
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Prefer Ziyech over Pulisic and Jimmy over Ings, but that's personal preference I think

      1. lekalatch
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Feels like Pulisic is a more safe option early season. But could be wrong. Pre-season will tell.

        Planning on Ings just first game anyway, Palace away. Jimmy has sheffield away. Tough choice

        1. Eze Really?
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Pulisic injured?

    2. Visionaries
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Ings overpriced imo. Rather swap Vardy & Ings to Kane and whoever

  5. Cert
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    RMT:
    McCarthy
    TAA Vinagre KWP
    Mane Auba ASM Ziyech Son
    Mitrovic Ings

    Bench: Martin Davis Douglas Taylor

    After GW1 Son + Mane to Fernandes + KDB

    1. Limbo
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      1m ITB?

      1. Cert
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yup

        1. Limbo
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Guessed so - I've planned something v.similar - Salah + Son GW2.

  6. zdrojo187
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    My Team without Liverpool defender...

    McCarthy
    Saliba,Vinagre,Justin
    Aubameyang,Son,Salah,Pereira
    Kane,Werner,Mitrovic

    Nyland,Taylor,Mitchell,Bissouma

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      That defense is awful. It's a no from me but good luck!

    2. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I like that it’s different. If Spurs start hot you’ll be flying.

    3. Limbo
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      TAA was 4th highest scoring player in the leage last season. For £7.5m he's still better value than any other big hitter. Whatever way you look at it, it's just impossible to ignore his and Robbos value.

  7. Holteenderinthesky
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    How we looking?
    Mccarthy
    TAA, Vinagre, Bednarek, Justin
    Salah, Mane, Auba, ASM
    Werner, Mitro
    Cheap Bench

    0.5 in the bank,
    Mane>Fernandes gw2
    Auba>KDB gw3
    Leaves me 2.5m to spend elsewhere

    1. SAY MY NAME
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      that's the exact team i had apart from bednarek was KWP, now switched to team a couple of posts down, i like it, might still be what i go with

      1. Holteenderinthesky
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Don't love Bednarek just a placeholder till I properly look at others. If Saliba starts today I'll probably end up going with him. But I like the team with some easy swaps planned

        1. SAY MY NAME
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          yeah the mids definitely allow flexibility

  8. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Huge game for iverpool today

    Hard to see them retianing the title if they lose. Would be a massive blow to their confidence

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      lol. this is a glorified friendly especially this season because teams have had barely any preseason.

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        So u think they will win the title

        1. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          No but I don't think winning or losing the CS will have any bearing on how they do this season.

          I think Liverpool could even finish 3rd this year if Chelsea or MUN have a good season. Motivation is a huge thing. And now that they've won the league, it's hard to see them having the motivation to retain it.

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      More likely to be a warm-up game, doubt Liverpool are taking this seriously.

    3. yousunkmybattleship
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Correction.

      Friendly for Liverpool today. Trent and others won’t be risked / will rested, no one will read much into the result. Whoever wins will have a small confidence boost, whoever loses won’t really care.

  9. SAY MY NAME
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    My first RMT, forgive me 🙂

    McCarthy
    TAA / Vinagre / KWP / Justin
    Salah / Auba / Ziyech / ASM / Son
    Werner

    Nyland / Johnson / Davis / Wickham 1.5 ITB for Son > Fernandes gw2, auba > KDB gw3 is the plan

    1. Holteenderinthesky
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Least we think the same, that was basically the team I've just changed from except I went with Mitro instead of 1.5m

      1. SAY MY NAME
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        🙂 i may go back with mitro, it basically came down to mane + mitro, or ziyech + son + 1.5

  10. Hangman Page
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Great article, I’ve missed the “Preamble”.

    It’s true there’s so much information out there and so much “advice.” It’s almost impossible to have an original thought in FPL now and the optimal GW1 team is more or less solved already.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I suspect FPL managers like Magnus don't spend a lot of time on twitter (could be wrong, I don't know), so I suspect the challenge is filtering the wheat from the chaff and maybe even ignoring the opinion of others entirely and relying on stats? The latter would be such a shame as we'd lose the FFS community if we all did that.

      Perhaps the compromise is in recognising a group of contributors that give reasoned advice? You then have something to chew over if you at first don't agree with their with their answer.

      1. Hangman Page
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I tend to ignore FPL “experts” and focus on facts. I like the articles here and on The Athletic and stats too, but there’s no substitute for watching as much live football as you can - that’s how you get ahead imo.

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Yes, I almost used the term "eye test" but noticed it was on the Top 10 of disliked FPL terms 😀

          1. Hangman Page
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            I can see we’re going to get on =)

  11. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    H.Barnes in a 4141

    Them early fixtures...

    Get him in!

    1. Flaming Flamingo
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Just a heads up, Iheanacho and Albrighton had more minutes than Barnes post-lockdown

      1. Coys96
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Change of system , they're now back to playing a 4141

        1. Flaming Flamingo
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Ah okay, still not sure I trust Rodgers to remain consistent if they aren't winning though

      2. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Barnes wagon derailed then...

  12. wanny180
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Hiya
    Been toying and dont really want to go to template.
    saving free transfers for week 3 to see how and what mcity and mutd set up like.
    please give your thoughts on this team for the 1st 2 week set up.
    many thanks
    McCarthy
    TAA KWP Hegazi
    Auba Salah Alli Periera
    Werner Mitrovic Ings
    Nyland Justin Douglas Stephens

    Cheers

    1. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Looks sweet.

      1. wanny180
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        cheers

  13. Twisted Saltergater
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    It's so great to have Mark back and writing articles; a Saturday morning pre-amble, no less!

    "I reckon your average Grandmaster spends more time pondering King to G7, rather than King to centre forward."

    😆 😆

  14. Kalou
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Is it wise to cover %ownership at the start of the season, or is this something to look at after x amount of gameweeks. Thoughts?

    1. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Just ignore it altogether and pick who think will get the most points imo.

      Less attention I pay to others the better I find I do.

    2. Third Eye Vision
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Depends on how your team’s performing, doesn’t it? If your funds are spread differently and you’re racking up the points with players that have a lower ownership then surely it doesn’t matter.

      I guess I only really consider it when transferring a player out rather than when I’m bringing someone in, i.e. I’d maybe hold on to someone highly owned if they’re out for a game or two. Mind you, saying that, you often have value tied up in higher-owned players anyway.

  15. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    1) Werner, Armstrong
    2) Ings, H.Barnes

    Have Ziyech

    1. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      2 but Pereira/JWP over Barnes

    2. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      1

    3. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      1

  16. Bubz
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Looking forward to some football today. Kind of wish Chelsea had won the FA cup though! Would have been nice to see the new signings.

    Any Auba goals today and he will be owned by 99% of fpl 😆

    1. Flaming Flamingo
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Hopefully he does then 🙂

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Auba through the centre will be enough for 98% ownership 🙂

      I'm interested to see if Nketiah has a starting role.

    3. Andy'81
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Tour de France starts, Belgian GP qualifying and the community shield, best days sporting calendar for a while, hope it continues.

  17. marcus2704
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on triple Liverpool defence?

    Gives me this team in a 3-4-3

    McCarthy
    TAA - VVD - Robertson (Vinagre, Douglas)
    Auba - Son - ASM - Soucek (Stephens)
    Kane - Werner - Mitro

    1. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yep like it.

  18. Sim Simma
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Mourinho to shackle Doherty's attacking runs ?

    1. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Didn’t shackle Aurier’s however 4-4-2 isn’t going to allow him the freedom of a true wingback.

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Doherty to shackle Aurier's runs, more like 🙂 Doherty should have free reign to get forward while Ben Davies is on the other side to tuck in, so he could play as a RWB if needed. He'll just be more defensively minded in picking the times to get forward probably.

    3. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      We just don't know yet how much Doherty is going to attack. Only time will tell if he is worth that extra million. So I think I'll just wait and decide later whether I want him or not (with WC perhaps). There was a time when B Davies had good season also. What has happened to him?

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Mourinho.

  19. Botman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Chance Leicester: Justin nice loft pass in for Vardy.

  20. mark@22
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Does anyone plan on keeping aubameyang with de bruyne and salah?
    Or move aubameyang for
    A. Rashford
    B. Greenwood

    1. sunzip14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Depends on Utd's GW2 performance and Auba's performance in the first 2 GWs

  21. Urchin
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Rate my team please.
    Thank you!

    1. Sharkytect
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Perfect

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Unreal.

    3. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Spectacular

  22. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Vardy looking good, you love to see it

  23. richmoore1604
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Watching the Leicester vs Sheff Wednesday friendly. Justin playing well at rb, created a chance, had a shot and had 4 or 5 touches in the box in the first 25 minutes. Thomas playing as well, at lb.
    Schmeical
    Thomas/Soyuncu/Morgan/Justin
    Praet/Mendy/Teilmans
    Barnes/Vardy/Albrighton
    Mendy playing very deep, almost a 3rd cb at times with Justin n Thomas playing pretty much as wing backs.
    Currently 0-0 but Vardy looks fresh and hungry

  24. Morrissey1986
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    McCarthy

    TAA
    Vinagre
    Justin

    Salah (C)
    Auba
    Alli
    ASM

    Ings
    Mitrovic
    Werner

    Bench Ryan, Johnson, Gordon, Ayling or Charlie Taylor

    What needs to change I think I’m set on punting on Alli.

    1. sunzip14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I think the formation needs to change for pleasing the eyes 😛 Otherwise, team looks good to me except vinagre+Justin (could be risky).

      1. Morrissey1986
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Who would you advise defensively over them in the 4.5 bracket?

  25. sunzip14
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    A gives a playing bench as well but most seem to suggest Doherty over Mitro. 1 vs 1 maybe Doherty will outscore Mitro but a playing 4.5 defender could come very handy time and again? So, which is better?

    A) 4.5 defender +Mitro
    B) 4.5 forward+ Doherty

  26. Shamboy
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Rate my Team please

    Ryan
    TAA Egan Vinagre
    Salah Traore Soucek Auba
    Varfy Ayew Kane

  27. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Leicester playing the 4-3-3, interesting and better for Vardy and Barnes. Wish Maddison was back though

  28. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Anything glaringly wrong with this draft? Been somewhat settled on this for a few days now.

    McCarthy / Nyland

    TAA / Vinagre / Saliba / Justin / 4.0

    Auba / Salah / Son / Soucek / 4.5

    Werner / Ings / Mitrovic

    Will aim to get KDB GW 3 and a Man U asset in place of Son early on.

  29. Rolls-Royce
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    "I reckon your average Grandmaster spends more time pondering King to G7, rather than King to center-forward." -Mark Sutherns

  30. @persecuted_by_mods
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Wes Morgan hamstring, on comes Darnell Johnson? Not even listed on fpl

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Wes is a liability these days - we should replace him pronto.