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Moving Target

Concerns over Chelsea’s goalkeeping position dents Chilwell’s FPL appeal

Ben Chilwell’s (£5.5m) move from Leicester City to Chelsea could make him an appealing Fantasy Premier League option for the coming season – once he fully recovers from injury.

An attack-minded left-back who has plenty of pace without being blisteringly quick, his move should add greater balance to the Chelsea defence in an area where they have struggled, with Emerson Palmieri (£5.0m) and Fantasy favourite Marcos Alonso (£6.0m) failing to really convince in that position.

While not posing the same menace as Alonso or any other premium option, his attacking output has grown modestly in each of the last three campaigns: from two returns in 2017/18 to six in 2019/20.

With the attacking options available at Chelsea this season in the form of Timo Werner (£9.5m), Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) and Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m), this should increase Chilwell’s potential as an FPL asset for 2020/21.

Chelsea lacked consistency in their defensive performances last season and this has been a key focus area for Frank Lampard’s recruitment drive this summer.

The arrival of Chilwell, as well as an experienced head in Thiago Silva (£5.5m), ought to strengthen Chelsea’s defensive unit and should increase the appeal of the Blues’ backline – although question marks still exist over who lines up between the posts.

Last season

Last season Chilwell was part of a Leicester defence that conceded 41 goals, considerably fewer than the 54 that Chelsea let in during the course of the campaign.

Chilwell and his old defensive partners also kept more clean sheets than the Blues managed (13 v nine).

However, Chelsea did concede fewer shots than Leicester, both inside and outside the box, and fewer efforts on target and big chances.

The difference in the number of goals conceded and the clean sheets kept was, as we hinted earlier, partly due to who was between the posts for each club: Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.0m) had by some distance the worst expected goals prevented total of any Premier League goalkeeper.

While it would be unfair to lay the blame solely at Kepa’s door, the acquisition of a new, more reliable number one or a sudden upturn in form from the Blues’ much-maligned goalkeeper would make investing in Chelsea’s defenders that bit more appealing.

Alonso vs Emerson vs Chilwell

Emerson started 13 games last season, in comparison to 15 for Alonso and 27 for Chilwell.

Emerson delivered no attacking returns in any of his 13 starts and just one clean sheet and his increasingly erratic displays led him to be overlooked for much of the second half of 2019/20.

Alonso faired better in his sporadic showings, registering four goals, four assists and seven clean sheets in his 15 appearances.

When he played, he was a force to be reckoned with: his average points per match of 5.6 was better than any FPL defender in the campaign just gone.

In comparison, Chilwell banked three goals, three assists and nine clean sheets, averaging 4.2 points per match in the process.

The expected goal involvement (xGI) statistics for the three left-backs last season is an interesting point of comparison.

Alonso’s xGI-per-90-minutes figure (0.30) was right up with the best of the FPL defenders, with Chilwell’s some way back (0.15) – and even behind Emerson’s (0.19).

Over the course of the whole of last season and despite the three goals, Chilwell’s expected goals (xG) figure didn’t even reach one (0.98) – contrast that to Alonso (2.62), who played over 900 fewer minutes than his new positional rival.

It’s important to stress that Alonso is a bit of a freak of nature from an attacking viewpoint and Chilwell does, if not posing too much of a goal threat, offer the possibility of assists, having ranked joint-fifth for chances created among FPL defenders.

Clean Sheet potential

During Frank Lampard’s first season in charge at Chelsea they finished tied 11th in the league for clean sheets kept.

This was the major weakness in the Chelsea team last season and left-back was a real problem area, with Emerson fading badly, Alonso not suited to a back four and Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.0m), while deputising ably, not offering much convincing threat going forward when he did fill in.

Chilwell, in theory, should be a decent compromise in being more naturally attack-minded than Azpilicueta but more solid defensively than Alonso.

Having said that, Chilwell’s tackle success rate was the second-worst of Chelsea’s four left-back options and he won a smaller percentage of his aerial duels (only just) than any of them.

Chilwell was at least an improvement on Alonso and Emerson in terms of clearances, blocks and interceptions per 90 minutes, as well as recoveries.

Conclusion

Chelsea’s inability to keep clean sheets has been recognised as an area of weakness and Lampard has resolved some of the concerns that Fantasy managers had by bringing Silva and Chilwell into the Chelsea fold.

Once fit, the England left-back should be more of a natural fit than Azpilicueta on the left-hand side of the Chelsea defence and a defensive improvement on Alonso.

While Chilwell’s goal threat isn’t a patch on the Spaniard’s, he ought to relish the prospect of linking up with a new-look and potentially potent attack.

Whilst the potential is there, it should be noted that a large percentage of the goals Chelsea conceded last season were from goalkeeper errors or a lack of command – something that was not much of a factor at Leicester.

Chilwell and the Chelsea defence in general could, therefore, be frustrating FPL assets to own if nothing is done to rectify the goalkeeping situation.

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483 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bobby Digital
    • 3 Years
    18 days, 19 hours ago

    Rashford could rack up some points from midfield. Anyone agree?

    1. Daniel S., FPL Veteran
      • 11 Years
      18 days, 19 hours ago

      If he gets in shape than yes

    2. Evans
      18 days, 5 hours ago

      If you look at his numbers from last year then add in more points for clean sheets and goals he could be a goldmine long as he's rested after his time off

  2. Daniel S., FPL Veteran
    • 11 Years
    18 days, 19 hours ago

    Bruno Fernandes: "I hear people saying 'ah, he only scores from penalty kicks', but a little while ago, I saw the statistics and, except for penalties, only Kevin de Bruyne has a higher involvement in goals than me in England when it comes to midfielders."

    1. Lindelol
      • 2 Years
      18 days, 19 hours ago

      yeah alright buddy

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      18 days, 19 hours ago

      He could've scored more from open play imo. Had a couple of chances per game. Or that's what my eye-test says.

    3. Egg noodle
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      18 days, 5 hours ago

      But this 'goal involvement' includes penalties. Can't tell if he is trying to reaffirm or contradict the assertion that he is a penalty merchant.

      1. Egg noodle
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        18 days, 5 hours ago

        Oh sorry he did say 'except for penalties'. Don't know which stats he's been seeing, it's certainly not the ones in the members area.

  3. SAY MY NAME
    • 3 Years
    18 days, 19 hours ago

    Any advice on this team please?

    McCarthy
    TAA / Doherty / Vinagre
    Auba (c) / Salah (vc) / ASM / Soucek
    Kane / Werner / Mitrovic

    Nyland / KWP / Mitchell / Bissouma

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      18 days, 19 hours ago

      Template. Good.

      1. SAY MY NAME
        • 3 Years
        18 days, 19 hours ago

        cheers

    2. unclesbasement
      18 days, 19 hours ago

      Had the same team a while back, its decent but theres not much flexibility in the midfield.To elaborate,soucek has horrible gameweeks after gw1 so it would be difficult getting any points from him so you might end up playing an extra defender instead. Also you want to have two high value players(10-12m) and then a mid range value player (6-8m) in that midfield so you can move from one player to another easily(flexibility) .
      Also what is your plan for the next gameweeks?

      1. SAY MY NAME
        • 3 Years
        18 days, 18 hours ago

        plan was salah>bruno gw2 (or maybe kane>martial), auba>kdb gw3, then using kane as a cash cow once the chelsea mids (i don't see too many options in the mid price mids who i think have massive potential at this point) have played a couple of games and shown who might be best, for me the flexibility is in having couple of expensive mids and couple of expensive forwards who can become whoever i want , can't see anything in middle range of mids that i'll really want, and if someone came up i've got the cash cows to be able to do that with 2 fts

  4. unclesbasement
    18 days, 19 hours ago

    Opinions on my team...any changes i should make?
    Mccarthy(martin)
    Justn,TAA,Vinagre,KWP(Mitchell)
    Salah,Auba,Ziyech,Armstrong(Bissouma)
    Werner,Kane(Davis)

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      18 days, 19 hours ago

      No, looks good. I'd wait on Ziyech and see how badly he's injured.

      1. unclesbasement
        18 days, 19 hours ago

        How can I bring in bruno in the coming gameweeks...who should i transfer out to bring him in

        1. Bobby Digital
          • 3 Years
          18 days, 18 hours ago

          Don't know. I'll see what happens. Building a team for the next 5-10 GWs and will adjust accordingly when time comes.

  5. Eat my goal!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    18 days, 18 hours ago

    Roman is going to have high demands of lamps this year, can he cut the mustard!

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      18 days, 18 hours ago

      Given the money they've spent anything less than 2nd, a decent CL run and probably a Cup would be a total failure. I'm a bit perplexed how this all fits with FFP . . . .I guess UEFA will have to investigate.

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 1 Year
        18 days, 18 hours ago

        They had a transfer ban remember...and sold hazard. Over the last 2 years their net sum spent is lower than a lot of elite clubs

  6. greenybne
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    18 days, 17 hours ago

    Anyone else tempted to pretty much ignore GW1 and just have the United/Coty assets from the start?

    All these planned transfer make me nervous, and with their low ownership I think your hand will be forced to take hits because of price rises.

    Most people plan to move to KDB, with good reason, I had him all last season. But is Sterling being overlooked? 4% ownership surely means his price rockets if he gets off to a flyer? £12+ by GW4?

    1. Flaming Flamingo
      • 4 Years
      18 days, 17 hours ago

      I'm doing the opposite, but it could be worthwhile if you already know which players you are going to own. Especially if you are planning to hold your WC beyond the first few GWs.

      1. greenybne
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        18 days, 17 hours ago

        Yeah I typically try to hold my WC for as long as possible

    2. stamboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      18 days, 16 hours ago

      How does the price change work exactly? Is it based on a set number of transfers or ownership percentage changing?

      1. greenybne
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        18 days, 14 hours ago

        Basically yes. I’m not sure if the mechanics but price increases or decreases with ownership.

  7. xHaTr
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    18 days, 17 hours ago

    Who's more nailed, Adams or Armstrong?

    1. Flaming Flamingo
      • 4 Years
      18 days, 17 hours ago

      Armstrong probably

  8. Evans
    18 days, 5 hours ago

    Nobody going for the differentials? Going with this reckon its got some hidden gems in nobody seems to be talking about...

    Ryan/McCarthy
    Coleman/Davies/Bertrand/Struijk/Holding
    Auba/Alli/Traore/Salah/Bissouma
    Werner/Ings/Nketiah