Best Punts Gameweek 1

After a snappy seven-week break, the Premier League’s return this weekend is one that has been eagerly-anticipated by fantasy managers. The days of incessant tinkering, frustration at not quite having the willpower to remove Mo Salah from my squad and agonising over the 4.5m midfield bench fodder has certainly driven me crazy. So, instead of more chopping and changing of 15 fantasy players, I thought why not breathe some life into the old ‘Best Punt’ series.

For those on the site who weren’t around five or six years ago (boy, has the community grown!) or need a reminder, I’d pen a weekly article picking out three low ownership ‘punts’ for each Gameweek. These were the times when Jamie Vardy was owned by 1.3% and Glen Johnson was walking so TAA could run. You might also recognise my name from a series of Scout Reports over on the main site in 2015, or just from hanging around in the comments section over the years!

As the 2020/21 season looms large, I thought I’d dare to resurrect the Best Punts series, starting with this piece. Back in the day, I managed a sustained period of flukiness with reasonable success, so I’m hoping I haven’t lost the touch. I’ll see how it goes for a few weeks then ponder whether to cast the series back into retirement or plough on full steam ahead.

Keeping the same format, here are one defender, one midfielder and one forward, all with ownership under 3.0%, who could bring home the bacon this week.

Semi Ajayi 

Position: Defender

Price: 5.0m

Ownership: 0.5%

Plumping for a defensive asset from a newly promoted side this early on in the season is a brave move from any fantasy manager. Over the 2019/20 campaign, both risers Norwich and Aston Villa were bottom of the goals conceded table with a whopping 75 and 67 goals against respectively – Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United a rare anomaly from that trend. 14 clean sheets in 46 Championship fixtures last time out from West Brom may not convince fantasy mangers, but Semi Ajayi could offer up a decent differential in Gameweek 1.

Across his 42 Championship starts last time out, pointing to a certainty of minutes, Ajayi netted five times for the Baggies. The 6ft 3in centre-back boasts an aerial prowess and cuts a commanding figure in both his own and the opposition’s penalty box.

West Brom kick off their return to the top flight this weekend against a Leicester side who look to be a shadow of their former selves. After the return last season, the Foxes netted just six goals across the final six gameweeks, spurning chance after chance to see a shot to goal conversion rate of only 7.4%, the fourth-worst in the league. That was in no small part down to missing the injured James Maddison, but his return this weekend is marred by the sold Ben Chilwell and injured Ricardo Pereira – both full-backs who were vital in Brendan Rodgers’ side best attacking moves. Despite the unfavourable fixture on paper, Slaven Bilic’s squad may be hopeful of keeping Jamie Vardy & co. quiet this weekend, spurred on by conceding just one goal across two pre-season matches.

What’s more, with Jonny Evans suspended and ageing backup Wes Morgan even nursing a hamstring injury, there are worries at the back for The Foxes too. A towering Ajayi hungry for set-piece goals at home against a makeshift back four could cause problems.

Takumi Minamino 

Position: Midfielder

Price: 6.5m

Ownership: 0.6%

Liverpool’s pre-season form, or lack of, has been a constant source of headaches for fantasy managers. The Reds’ prime attacking assets in Mo Salah and Sadio Mané haven’t been at the races after a fruitful campaign last time out, and managers are wondering whether they justify their hefty 12.0 price tag.

Pre-season form is often little to go off – picking these punts is more of a stab in the dark than ever – but there is one sparkling midfielder in Jurgen Klopp’s side that has been turning heads. Takumi Minamino registered a goal against Arsenal in the Community Shield and a further two assists last time out against Blackpool at Anfield – a clash in which he was clearly the side’s man of the match. The tricky playmaker has been causing problems and getting both himself and others behind defences where Salah and Mané have struggled.

As a result, many Liverpool fans have taken to social media to call for the Japanese international to make Klopp’s starting XI against Leeds United this weekend, 76% of 845 participants in Anfield Agenda’s Twitter poll saying exactly that. Playing a role just behind the not-so-deadly Roberto Firmino, there’s little question that Minamino has the potential to return fantasy-goods if he’s on the pitch – especially against newly-promoted Leeds United. The big question is just IF he gets the minutes to do so. That said, the 25-year-old proved he can also deliver off the bench after that Community Shield goal, so at 6.5 he could be a risk worth taking.

Aaron Connolly 

Position: Forward

Price: 5.5m

Ownership: 0.6%

Picking Aaron Connolly in Gameweek 1 does seem like a sure-fire way to shoot myself in the foot, but I do think the promising 20-year-old could do the business for Brighton this season. Neal Maupay may be the favoured and most ‘nailed-on’ forward under rotation-happy Graham Potter, but it is Connolly who has proven the greater danger over recent weeks.

The striker netted the winner against Burnley on the final day of the season, picked up another two goals against Portsmouth in a secret friendly in August and won the penalty, thanks to some tasty footwork, which led to the Potters’ goal against this Gameweek’s opponents Chelsea on August 29th – a fixture in which Maupay saw a penalty saved. He’s fit and raring to go too, having played 90 minutes for Ireland against Bulgaria last week, for which he was praised for his work in the press. The big question is whether he will feature this weekend or not, much depending if Potter favours one or two up top.

What is likely is that the cut-price forward will get minutes of some sort against a Chelsea side who will still be learning each other’s names. Frank Lampard’s reformed outfit look set for a dazzling season with a team sheet to be rivalled, but with questions still there over just who will play, the team could take some bedding in. For that reason, even though The Blues seem like certain winners at The Amex on Monday, I see goals for both sides in the match. And it’s Aaron Connolly who has been amongst them recently.