Spot the Differential

The best FPL differentials to consider for the new season

The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

As always, we’ve selected three players with an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing, who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Christian Pulisic

Willian and Pulisic make case for Chelsea double-up with Norwich on horizon
  • FPL ownership: 6.6% (4.8% at the time of writing)
  • Price: £8.5m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: bha | LIV | wba | CRY | SOU

Despite a slow start, Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) enjoyed a fine first season at Chelsea, and hit top gear upon the Premier League’s resumption back in June.

The United States international contributed a combined eight goals and assists in just nine league appearances during Project Restart, and went on to score in the FA Cup final defeat to Arsenal.

That kind of output suggests a big campaign lies ahead.

In yesterday’s press conference, manager Frank Lampard confirmed Pulisic is in contention for Monday’s trip to Brighton, and with an ownership of just 4.8% at the time of writing, could be an explosive differential for those willing to gamble on him starting. Saying that, an appearance off the bench might not be the end of the world for owners, considering his ability to haul from limited minutes, as evidenced at Anfield last season.

The Blues’ opponents in Gameweek 1, Brighton and Hove Albion, head into the season with plenty of optimism themselves after a busy transfer window, though it’s worth noting they shipped 11 goals in just three home games against Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United during the restart, while doubts linger over their ability to keep things tight against the best attacking setups in the league. 

Following the arrivals of Kai Havertz (£8.5m), Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m) and Timo Werner (£9.5m), competition for places at Chelsea is fierce right now. However, we think this could have a positive effect on Pulisic, who could now take his game to another level and thrive alongside such quality.

James Ward-Prowse

  • FPL ownership: 4.7%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: cry | TOT | bur | WBA | che

James Ward-Prowse (£6.0m) may only have registered nine attacking returns last term, but with the Saints going from strength-to-strength, we’re backing the England international to kick on this season.

A product of the Saints academy, Ward-Prowse has become a vital part of manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s midfield unit, and played every minute of the club’s 2019/20 Premier League campaign. 

It has been suggested the departure of Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (£5.0m), and re-introduction of Oriol Romeu (£4.5m) to the starting XI, will give the Southampton captain a bit more freedom to get forward, which is encouraging, but there is no getting away from the fact his ability from set-pieces and delivery from wide areas is the main attraction.

Ward-Prowse whipped in a massive 72 crosses from Gameweek 30+ onwards, more than any other player, while his 20 shots ranked joint-ninth amongst midfielders. Add to that free-kicks, corners and a share of penalties with Danny Ings (£8.5m), and we think there is a lot to like here. 

After a disappointing start to last season, Southampton performed well once Hasenhüttl had settled on his 4-4-2 / 4-2-2-2 system. Their away form was only bettered by Liverpool and Manchester City, while just the Manchester clubs collected more points during Project Restart.

The Saints are unbeaten in their last five league matches on the road, and take on a Crystal Palace side in Gameweek 1 who have won just four games all calendar year, all of which bodes well for Ward-Prowse and Southampton’s prospects this weekend.

Dele Alli

  • FPL ownership: 3.3%
  • Price: £8.0m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: EVE | sou | NEW | mun | WHU

This season feels like a defining moment for Dele Alli (£8.0m), after another disappointing campaign last time round.

However, his performances under Jose Mourinho in the early weeks of his tenure offers hope he may be able to find his best level again. 

Under Mourinho’s stewardship, there was an immediate improvement in Alli’s output, which saw him go on a run of four goals and three assists in five matches, while his underlying statistics suggest he may be being overlooked.

Since Mourinho’s first game in charge, amongst midfielders, only Raheem Sterling (£11.5m), Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) and Sadio Mané (£12.0m) accumulated big chances at a faster rate. His expected goal data was also encouraging, and trumped that of team-mate Son Heung-min (£9.0m), despite seeing fewer minutes.

While I’m unsure how much we can read into pre-season, Alli’s displays have offered promise, having registered two assists in a 3-0 home win over Ipswich Town before scoring in a 4-1 victory at Reading.

Up first for Tottenham Hotspur is Everton. While the Toffees’ will no doubt look a much better unit with their new midfield recruits, it may take time for them to gel, while their poor away record last term saw them concede 35 goals – only five teams gave up more.

Heading into the new season, it is vital for Alli to keep himself fit and find a bit more consistency in his performances. If he can do that, while retaining an attacking midfield role, he could be in for a big season.

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2,172 Comments Post a Comment
  1. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Do you expect Castagne to start?I would like to get him in my team over Soy/Justin.

  2. JS27
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Think I'm all set bar one final defender pick...
    a - James Justin
    b - Reece James
    c - Rob Holding
    d - Michael Keane

    Leaning towards b but do fear for gametime? Rest of my defence is TAA, Saiss, Dallas and Mitchell

    1. Dele
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      B but he may not start

    3. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      If you go B, it’ll take up a Chelsea slot. Dangerous.

      1. JS27
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Werner + a midfielder if one becomes a standout? Doubt I'll be going for 3 attackers anytime soon so I don't think it's too much of a concern

    4. Brazooka
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      A

  3. JELLYFISH
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Chances of Saliba starting with Luiz out?

    1. JS27
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      From what I've read looks like it'll be a back 3 of Saliba, Holding and Tierney

      1. JELLYFISH
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I think he's worth a punt then - cheers

    2. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Huge chance, Sokratis also out.

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        This

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      But will he start from gw2 and the next? Probably not A 4.5 def we want to Spend our first FTs on, there’s always issues in the beginning

    4. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Likely

      decent player too

  4. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Final touches not fun question.

    For those who go 2 upfront, who is your choice for your 4.5 FW?

    As a fodder, one important thing to consider is overall ownership pecentage as a 0.1 price drop could be blocking a transfer with lack of fund.

    Vasilev

    1. JS27
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yeah if they're last on your bench I'd go for whoever has the lowest ownership to avoid that 0.1 drop. Same reason I'm not going with Nyland for my backup keeper

      1. DandyDon
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Hadn't considered this. Who are you going for. predicted lineups seems to suggest Steer is better at least?

        1. JS27
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I've got Walton in there as I've no plans to play whoever it is pre WC so just want to avoid the 0.1 drop. I may get very unlucky with injuries but it's a worthwhile risk imo

    2. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Ownership doesn't really matter. A low owned players requires less transfers out to drop than a highly owned player. It's percentage based.

      So probably Davis, because he has the best chance of gametime. Even getting 1 minute will prove to WCers that he's the best 4.5m.

      1. Ser Davos
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Good insight

      2. JS27
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        But surely those picking the highest scoring cheap players from last season are doing so under the assumption they'll play/score points this year and therefore be more likely to remove them if/when they don't? Whereas those picking the cheapest options who didn't register any points last season (aka the lowest owned ones) are expecting 0-1 points and therefore less likely to use a transfer on them?

        1. Clintymints
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          It can go either way. If Davis - the more likely of the others to get mins, gets any sort of return he will be in everyone's team for 4.5

          The majority of people won't have an fpl head on and just get him

          Or go with the slow burner low percentage, both ways have their merits

    3. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Davis

    4. BHA_Seagull
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Bissouma becoming a regular with Potter.
      The South Coast Pogba

  5. jason_ni
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I am thinking I'll end on something like this:
    Ramsdale (fodder)
    Robbo - TAA - KWP - Mitchell (Taylor)
    Salah - Auba - Alli (Soucek - Romeu)
    Werner - Wilson - Mitro

    Then down the road,
    Auba -> Sterling
    Alli -> Saka
    Mitro -> Martial

    But all future plans in the air until we see how they play.

  6. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    A DCL + soucek
    B adams + pereira

  7. SomeoneKnows
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    How likely is it that Son's price will drop or that Rashford's price will rise before GW2?

    Planning on doing Son + Salah > Rashford + KDB but want to delay it as much as possible in order to avoid a -4 hit

    1. DandyDon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Rashford will surely rise before wk 2 as no one will start with him. Same for many of the Utd and CIty players

    2. rnrd
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      before GW2?
      if you do your transfer sunday just after the spurs game, there's zero chance son drops and I don't think Rashford will rise beore the end of GW2 when a lot of people will sell Aubam

  8. imvs
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    is taylor (burnley) a safe option?
    or is there any other good option for 4.5m?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Think he’s the best, based on nailedness and Burnley’s defensive output last season

  9. FPL Brains
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Just a RP. Taken Auba/Salah out but thinking about the first 6/7 gameweeks instead.

    Just made some changes. Taking some risks but breaking the template. Let me know your thoughts:

    McCarthy
    Trent, Doherty, Justin, Mitchell
    Rodriguez, Soucek, Son
    Werner, Adams, Mitrovic

    Nyland, KDB, Fernandes, Taylor

    Crazy or clever?

    1. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Why not take a minus 4 or even a minus 8 in GW2 and play the transfer you want?

      Pretty strong odds that Auba and Mo get 4 or 8 points between them in my book. They also look captainable of course

  10. DandyDon
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Any ideas what the starting Arsenal defence will be??
    No Sokratis or Luiz we now know. I would have thought Holding will be good for the first few games as he usually looks solid (and i'd actually have him in ahead of Luiz and Sokratis anyway) when he plays but they have a couple of new signings that could play there not to mention this idea of Tierney playing in the back three to accomodate Saka.

  11. Pep's Money Laundry
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    The really isn't much value in midfield for players priced between 6m to 8m, I'm set on the idea of benching a Man U player and whilst Martial looks good value I can't find a decent mid priced midfielder to go with him.

    Which do you prefer here

    A. Martial & Barnes (or anyone upto 7.5)
    B. Adams & Fernandes (own Mitrovic)

    1. Alisson WondHaaland
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Ive personally gone with B

  12. OptimusBlack
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Who is better ?
    A- Doherty & Alli & Werner
    B- TAA & ASM & KANE

    1. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Trent Max Werner

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Okaay

  13. Cheeto__Bandito
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Everyone is sleeping on Villa defence... great numbers post lockdown and Martinez coming wow.

    1. pundit of punts
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Targett on my bench ready for gw 2 and 3.

    2. DandyDon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      could be good for the odd cleansheet. Think the reason people are sleeping on them is mainly the lack of fixture week 1 though!

    3. Jullepuu
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I already have Taylor and I need someone who plays gw1

  14. fpork
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I really don't understand people picking Havertz over players like Son, Salah, etc.? Why not just wait and see until after Liverpool match in GW2?

    1. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Risk innit

      He's that good and basically a younger KdB

    2. polis
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Havertz 8.5m Salah 12m

      Apples to oranges there.

      1. fpork
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Well, they are both typically one of three expensive midfielders you will own. For me, it will be Son, Salah and Auba. All proven. Putting Havertz into that mix will either hurt the rest of your team or replacing him with one of the above.

    3. DandyDon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Agree on Havertz. Werner however has shown in preseason and internationals he is good to go!

    4. ChuckN
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Because the human mind is hard wired to love shiny new things.

  15. Roy Rovers
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Saiss > 4.5 & Hendo > JWP?

    McCarthy
    TAA Saiss Justin
    Aubameyang Henderson Soucek Bissouma
    Kane Werner Ings

    Steer Mitchell Taylor Bruno

    After GW2 - Auba & Ings > KDB & Martial

  16. Clintymints
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Eww Dier

    Here's my first draft

    McCarthy 4.0
    TAA Dier Vinagre
    Salah Soucek Son Auba Havertz
    Werner Mitro

    Mitchell Douglas Davis

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Nice 5 Mid

      1. Clintymints
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yea can't see past it for week 1. I'll have a look at gw2 transfers for kdb/bruno etc... but I'd rather go all out in gw1 with an aggressive transfer plan as whatever plans you will have for gw2 will be torn up after the first game

        1. TeddiPonza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Bench too weak with Vinagre a rotation risk as well!

    2. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      You'll play Soucek post GW1?

      1. Clintymints
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Probably rotate with the defs, depends how the start goes

        not worried about the bench, need to see who the cheap lads to get in are first over the opening few games

  17. Rahul Tibrewala
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Will Saiss and Pulisic going to start ?

  18. AnyoneButLiverpool
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Does anyone know if Mark will post his team?

  19. MESSINHO
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Think I will settle on this:

    McCarthy - Steer
    TAA - Dier - Justin - Taylor - Mitchell
    Salah - Auba - Alli - ASM - Reed
    Werner - Ings - Mitro

    Only considering this for now:

    A) KWP
    B) Justin
    C) Lascelles

    What do you think guys? Cheers!

    1. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      B

      Very tidy side! Prefer Podence & Doucoure to ASM tbh. Cheap defence but it rotates really well!

      1. MESSINHO
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks dude! I think ASM is more attacking than Doucoure, and don't know if Podence really nailed. Is he? I don't ecpect too much from that 5.5 mid price bracket anyways tbh.

    2. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Good team. Have you got enough to do Ings>Martial in GW2?

      Of the defenders, I'm leaning C and he seems to rotate quite well with Taylor.

      1. Pegboy
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Maybe ASM>Soucek to facilitate.

        1. MESSINHO
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Thanks, but I'm going to leave that assessment after GW1. Can take a hit to get both Bruno and Martial, can save a FT, can go Werner -> Martial. It's a wait and see for me.

          1. Pegboy
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Fair enough. I do still think it's worth having 0.5 at least in the bank, even if you don't have a particular transfer in mind.

  20. Horlicks esq.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Sorry - from a few pages back. ToressMagic ™ Has he set up a new LMS league?

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      yeah

    2. Horlicks esq.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Any idea on the code?

      1. Roy Rovers
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        48n69x

  21. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Final part to my side:

    McCarthy | Nyland
    Trent | Dier | Justin | Vinagre | _____
    Auba | Pereira | Podence | ______ | _____
    Werner | Mitrovic | _____

    1) Digne, Bruno, ASM, Kane
    2) KWP, Son, H.Barnes, Martial

    Any help much appreciated!!!!

  22. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Areola becoming a better option than Ryan or Mc Carthy at 4.5 ?

    quality goal keeper

    1. polis
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      One word. Fulham.

    2. DandyDon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      at a worse team surely though!?

    3. ChuckN
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Nope. Fulham going to get hammered most weeks.

    4. OptimusBlack
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Am getting him

  23. jam sandwich
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    RMT

    McCarthy // Steer
    TAA - Dier - Justin - KWP // Ferguson
    Auba (c) - Salah (v) - Alli - Soucek // Bissouma
    Werner - Adams // Martial

    1. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Decent - will have to play Soucek most weeks though. Perhaps downgrade Alli so you can upgrade Soucek

      1. Pegboy
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Would Martial just come in for Soucek? I really dislike the midfield options

  24. adstomko
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Chances of Oli Burke starting with McBurnie?

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      super sub I reckon

    2. DandyDon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      unlikely week 1, managers like to give players who have been around longer another opportunity, ala Sharp first game. Imagine he'll creep into the starting line up after this. He did come of the bench for Scotland last week so is fit.

  25. imvs
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    is taylor (burnley) a safe option?
    or is there any other good option for 4.5m??

    1. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Taylor prob ok

    2. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yes, nailed

  26. Dacra
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Hows this look? Last minute dropping of Werner for Havertz...

    McCarthy (4.0)
    TAA - Doherty - Davies - Saliba - Mitchell
    Auba - Salah - Havertz - Alli (Bissouma)
    Adams (Martial, Davis)

    Becomes 442 from week 2, with likely switch out double Spurs def for a United def.

    1. DandyDon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I would have stuck with Werner. takes midfielders longer to get adjusted to a new team/system than a striker and Werner has actually played pre season with them anyway.

    2. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Wouldn't drop Werner

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Would you consider Doherty -> 5.0?
      Could strengthen your bench

      Looks good though!

      1. Dacra
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Hes likley getting switched out for a United defender 2nd game anyway 😀

  27. Jdpz
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Best midfielder 4.5m? Bissouma?

    1. Feed tha Sheep
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      That’s who I’m in

  28. Dacra
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Anywon have the LMS league code?

  29. SADIO SANÉ
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    think I'm gonna waste 25 quid on a 'talisman theory' XI on fanteam - anyone fancy thowing out some names?

    got Mitro, Pereira, Rodriguez, Auba, Vardy so far

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Shelvey set-piece monopoly?

      Any defenders on set-pieces?

    2. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Mitro, Pereira, Auba, Grealish, Wood, Richarlison, C.Wilson, Ings, Jimenez

      1. SADIO SANÉ
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        nice, cheers mate - Grealish and Wood are great ones, Ings too

  30. Dacra
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Havertz and Martial is a whole lead cheaper than Werner and Bruno...

    1. Jebiga
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      this