Pro Pundits - Sam

Why I’m being patient with my FPL transfers after a disappointing Gameweek 1

Fantasy Premier League managers should exercise patience, even after a difficult Gameweek 1 for some.

It can be easy to make rash transfer decisions after one round of matches, but, if I do transfer anyone out, I will be doing it after much consideration in the cold light of day, and ensuring the change is made after upcoming midweek matches.

The gap between the first two Gameweeks is one of my favourite times of an FPL season. Blank Gameweek clubs aside, we now have a full set of data from the first round of fixtures, as well as a first look at the teamsheets for each club.

That has given us more information to rely on in terms of owning the right £4.0m defenders and £4.5m midfielders, as well as the right premium assets. 

At this stage, it would be very easy to panic. There are several big decisions to be made, even after just one Gameweek in the history books.

As I write this, Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) is owned by 33.9% managers worldwide, 66% of them are perhaps wondering how to fit the Egyptian King into their squads, or how to hold their nerve for one more week – and there is the return of both Manchester clubs to contend with.

Meanwhile, there were many in the Fantasy community planning to sell Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) ahead of Gameweek 3, but his goal and Arsenal’s performance at Fulham could make such a move harder than some might have imagined. Up next, the Gunners face a West Ham side that looked off-colour against Newcastle, so Aubameyang could conceivably be heading into Gameweek 3 on the back of two decent scores.

With so many of the dilemmas featuring the most expensive players in the game, Aubameyang, Salah and the Manchester assets, I am expecting chaotic FPL transfers this week, with plenty of price changes.

Ahead of Gameweek 2, the market comes into its own as managers make early moves to bring in players and avoid price rises. 

On Saturday, 10,000 brave souls sold Salah before he had even kicked a ball against Leeds. A further 1,000 of them jettisoned him during the game itself, an outing in which he scored a hat-trick and registered a 20-point haul. 

By half-time at Craven Cottage, Aubameyang was the sixth-most transferred-in, as well as being the third-most transferred-out player. Elsewhere, Son Heung-min (£9.0m) had suffered the loss of 3,000 managers by the time Crystal Palace hosted Southampton Saturday, despite not playing until the following afternoon.

A lot of this early chopping and changing of other managers does make it hard to stick to your strategy. In such circumstances, it is easy to second-guess yourself constantly, worried about being priced out of your must-have transfer.

There is no way to win FPL, or indeed lose it, during the opening couple of Gameweeks… but you can destroy your strategy by panicking and overthinking. 

The whole of pre-season was spent formulating a team that we believed would be the right one for the beginning of the campaign, not just for Gameweek 1. 

Players such as Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.5m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m), Sadio Mané (£12.0m) and Danny Ings (£8.5m) are not, all of a sudden, bad options because they blanked in Gameweek 1. These are the sort of players who showed last season that they can often return points.

Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) is a prime example of how luck can play a part in Fantasy. He managed just three penalty box touches at West Bromwich Albion, two of which were spot-kicks, which he converted. The Leicester man did not pass the eye test at all, yet he ended up as one of the highest-scoring forwards of the Gameweek. Sometimes the luck is with you, as was the case with Vardy owners in Gameweek 1, and sometimes it’s not. This trend will continue to oscillate throughout the course of the season, so do not be too easily disheartened. Premium assets are expensive for a reason and luck can turn in a heartbeat.

As for myself, owning Salah and Aubameyang for this opening weekend was a good decision; the rest of my players were complete let-downs. 

Like many of you, I am tempted to remove some players who failed to deliver in Gameweek 1. I could switch Che Adams (£6.0m) to Patrick Bamford (£5.5m) or Saint-Maximin to Daniel Podence (£5.5m), for example. However, these sorts of rash transfer decisions, based only on frustration and data from just one match, nearly always do more harm than good in the long-term.

During the build-up to Gameweek 1, I had a plan for my transfers and I intend to stay true to it. My FPL management style is the opposite of an upside-chaser. I am loyal to my FPL assets, I like to hold and roll transfers and give myself as much thinking time and data as possible to make my decisions with. 

Between now and the Gameweek 2 deadline, we have EFL Cup matches for Newcastle, West Ham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, West Brom, Fulham, Southampton, Leeds, Everton, Sheffield United, Wolves and Brighton – and Spurs are in Europea League action too. 

As far as I am concerned, each of these is another chance to evaluate a team and the busy schedule is another reason to wait until Thursday or Friday before making my transfers.

These midweek fixtures could all throw up potential injuries that could force FPL managers into another transfer, or even an unwanted points-hit if moves have already been made. I hate doing this, so I will remain as patient as possible.

But just because I want to take this approach with transfers, does not mean I won’t be making any at all. At this stage, I am not ruling out changes for Gameweek 2.

FPL lessons learned as Martial and Rashford outscore Fernandes

I planned to start the season with a Manchester United asset on my bench so that I was ready for their Gameweek 2 match against Crystal Palace. However, in the build-up to the Gameweek 1 deadline, there were doubts around Marcus Rashford’s (£9.5m) fitness, Bruno Fernandes‘ (£10.5m) potential need for quarantine, as well as uncertainty surrounding Mason Greenwood (£7.5m) in light of an ongoing Jadon Sancho transfer saga, and the youngster’s antics while on international duty with England. The number of unknowns surrounding Manchester United assets meant I did not feel comfortable deciding who to own a whole week ahead of their opening game of the campaign.

Coupling this dilemma with the high ownership of other similarly-priced assets convinced me to go with Son for a home meeting with Everton. This was a decision which, on paper, felt like the right one. Spurs had not lost a Premier League match against Everton since December 2012. Well, now the Toffees’ last victory against them came as recently as… last weekend. Even though Son has previously represented a viable investment, his wider role in Jose Mourinho’s team continues to disappoint the South Korean’s Fantasy owners, just as it did during Project Restart.

That said, Son was always in my team as something of a cash-cow, ready and waiting to be upgraded to a Manchester United asset at some point. Is Gameweek 2 too early to pull the trigger on such a move? This was something I was happy to consider before kick-off on opening day, on reflection, I am even happier to do now. But with so many players failing to impress in Gameweek 1, the difficulty comes in deciding who my priority transfers are.

'Out of position' Zaha scores as £4.0m defender Mitchell aids Palace clean sheet

Crystal Palace surprised me in their 1-0 win over Southampton. They were stronger defensively than we saw at the end of last season, Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) is playing up-front as an out-of-position FPL midfielder and new signing Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) impressed me when he came on for a nine-minute cameo. 

But I am making sure I remember this: all of my potential moves will be on hold until after midweek action. The last thing I want is to use a transfer, only to see someone else in my squad injured in the EFL Cup or Europa League.

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2,806 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Inazuma X1
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Just looked at Chris McGowan's team and surprised he's having a shocker GW1 as well

  2. Silent Friend
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Dier or Davies or best 5M defender (not Saiss & Gabriel)?

    1. mynameisq
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Luke Shaw if he's 5.0 again

      1. TheBrazilianRonaldo
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Except Shaw will get injured after 3 games and you’ll burn a ft to get rid

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Reece James

  3. Quackadoodz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Anything to change urgently?

    Ryan (4.0 fodder)

    Digne, KWP, Justin (Mitchell, 4.0)
    Son, Salah, Zaha, (A)uba
    Werner, Mitro, DCL

    1.5 itb

    1. mynameisq
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      No, roll the transfer

      1. Quackadoodz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Cheers

    2. james61103
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Son to Bruno or Rashford

  4. pundit of punts
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Bottomed

    How does Ings + Mane > Martial + Salah for -4 sound? I think I need to correct the mane mistake quickly. Salah looked in great touch, has pens and price drops and rises for mane and Salah impending.

    Gives me -

    McCarthy
    Holding - Justin - Targett
    Salah - Aubameyang - Son - Havertz
    Martial - Richarlison - Wilson

    Steer - Bissouma - KWP - Mitchell

    Thoughts? 🙂

    1. HODGE
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Maybe havertz looked poor

    2. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      I dont mind this move, sound logic. Bit like getting an injection from the doctor - you dont like it but it has to be done and you'll be glad you did.

  5. KujaliaFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    What's the usual prognosis for a dead leg?

    Should I swap out Werner for Martial?

    1. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      He'll be fine

    2. HODGE
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Could easily be on the benches he won't be able to train most of the week

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Severe one is up to 2 weeks. He will be fine though

    4. Lazaretti
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      He is fine if you can continue and play full game it's not that bad

  6. g40steve
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Any changes needed, looking at Martial, Bruno, James Eve?

    McCarthy
    Trent, Egan, Robbo
    Auba C, Soucek, Son, ASM
    Vardy, Werner, Richarlison

    Steer, Mitchell, Reed, Burr

    .5

    1. Rolls-Royce
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Looks good to save the transfer.

  7. Rolls-Royce
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Team looks something like this after the pending Alli-> Rodriguez transfer. Trying to hold off WC as long as possible this season.

    Ryan
    TAA Davies Justin
    Salah Auba Rodriguez Soucek
    Martial Werner Adams

    Steer Bissouma KWP Mitchell.

    0.5 inb

    1. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Looks gtg

      1. Rolls-Royce
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        cheers mate

    2. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      All good

  8. Eat my goal!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Taa no longer essential?

    1. HODGE
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      No one is essential all season

    2. TheBrazilianRonaldo
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 10 days ago

      If I go what I thought pre-season, it is that Liverpool need to play their way back into form, TAA included. I’ve got him cause I caved from group-think and he is in the shadow of Saiss, Justin and James this week

  9. Kabayan
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    in your opinion, which one will get more points?
    A. Martial + Hames
    B. DCL + Bruno

    1. Sanchit
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      A

  10. PG
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    when will the FFS H2H League be updated chat?

    1. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Takes a while given thousands of teams.

      1. PG
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        So can I leave the league now? as they've mentioned in the FFS H2H League article.

        1. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Make sure you are in a division/league to be sure.

          1. PG
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 10 days ago

            This is my first time in FFS H2H League. Better I'll stay in league so that my entry is taken. Thank you.

  11. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Is Ferguson a better 4.0 option than Mitchell at Palace once the nice fixtures arrive in GW5?

    1. Sanchit
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Yes. Mitchell will be benched once PvA returns.
      Ferguson is rumoured to be a sure starter if fit.

    2. Rolls-Royce
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Too early to worry about those stuff imo

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        On WC so want to choose the right one for down the line

        1. Warby84
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          I looked as I’m in WC but on red flag so not worth it!! I’ll stick with Mitch for now

          1. Eat my goal!
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 10 days ago

            You really want to have that transfer for future

            1. Warby84
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 10 days ago

              Bench fodder so will rarely play

              1. Eat my goal!
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 10 days ago

                So get the injured player who has more longevity

                Alternatively pick buur and hope he breaks through

        2. Old Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          You're on a WC already? Gulp.

  12. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Son/Doherty - Bruno/Lewis -4?

    Thoughts please

  13. Raybigblue
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Had to wildcard no options

    please rate ,going to gamble on Lpool defence until bank money builds up or a forward is down graded

    McCarthy nyland
    Digne James Holding Justin 4.0
    salah Hames KDB ASM ,Bissouma
    Werner Martial Richarlason

    Thanks

    1. HODGE
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Werner could be out and Liverpool is a tough game

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Tempted by Martinez at Villa?

    3. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      My WC team would be Something like

      Mcc 4.0
      Vvd saiss James/shaw/Cast Taylor ferg/buur
      Salah auba Bruno soucek Bisso
      Dcl martial Wilson

      Auba to Kdb gw3

    4. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Asm>klich

  14. TheBrazilianRonaldo
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 10 days ago

    I don’t fancy West Ham or Spurs. Midfield looks a bit inflexible to get to value mids. 4 big players so I guess value ppm is upfront

    1. TheBrazilianRonaldo
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Reply fail

  15. Flynny
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 10 days ago

    Thoughts on this move?

    Davies, havertz and antonio to ayling Bruno and dcl - 8

    Could pay back instantly perhaps?

    Mccarthy steer
    Taa davies shaw (vinagre ferguson)
    Salah auba havertz asm (biss)
    Werner antonio Adams

    Thanks

    1. Flynny
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Ignore.....going mad...can't afford

  16. Vazza
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Which one of the following looks good -

      A. Ings to Jimenez (for free)

      B. Ings to Martial (for free)

      C. Havertz + Auba to Rashford + KDB (-4 hit)

      D. Dier to Saiss (for free)

      E. Do nothing and roll transfer

      1. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        b

      2. grumpyman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        E

      3. The Knights Template
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        B or roll

    • Hig1990
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Son & TAA to Bruno & Digne for s hit before bruno rise? Auba to KDB GW3

      McCarthy
      TAA, Davies, Justin, KWP, Ferguson
      Son, Salah, Auba, ASM, Bissouma
      Werner, Martial, Brewster
      £0.0 ITB

      1. TheBrazilianRonaldo
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Is it not wc in transfers distorting figure?

        1. Hig1990
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Hmm yeah, probably is but equally, I dont want to miss out. Originally planned to shift Salah but can’t after that hatrick lol

      2. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        could work. Risky tho

      3. The Knights Template
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        No

    • zLaTaN@uNiTeD
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Can anyone give me mark suthens team link?

      1. Eat my goal!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Page before

    • Charan77
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Good morning

      Is it worth doing Werner to martial?

      Already have Adams and Kane.

      Thanks

      1. The Knights Template
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        No.

        1. Charan77
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Why not?

    • sergioaguero67
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 10 days ago

      Luke Shaw to start?
      Please help

      1. mynameisq
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Yes

    • kobewan
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Ryan McCarthy

        TAA-Justin-B. Davies-KWP(Vinagri)
        Auba-Hames-Salah-Son(Bissouma)
        Werner-Mitro-(K.Davis)

        tweak or wait?

        1. The Knights Template
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Wait

      • Little Red Lacazette
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Does the Werner injury look serious?

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          No

        2. Shineonme
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Didn't look bad but I'm still doing werner > Martial. Never know how bad the injury is plus chelsea have a tough game and also Chelsea have good option replacements up front if they don't want to risk werner and Man utd have a nice home game against Palace. Thats my thinking on it anyway. I need a Man utd player and thats my only rout to one without 4-

      • Kakashi Of The Leaf
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Alli Ings> Richarlison Rashford (-4)??

        Have DCL

        1. mynameisq
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          To me that's gonna backfire but everyone else on here is doing something similar so up to you

      • Nailed Jesus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Havertz & Ings to:
        a) Bruno & Wilson
        b) Martial & Hames

        1. The Knights Template
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          A

      • Fodderx4
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Morning all. Happy with my team and start but have 1 issue. What hat do with Saliba? I have a good enough bench to cover but worried that he drops before the deadline and that. 1 can cause issues with other transfers. I wanted to save a transfer and already have Bruno and Taylor so have United cover.
        a) keep and save a transfer
        b) sell for Mitchell and save .5
        c) transfer to Holding (is he nailed?)
        d) transfer to Justin or another 4.5, who?
        Thanks.

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Moving to Mitchell or Holding, or even Justin, will cause another transfer in 1-2 weeks time. Why would a 4.5 defender dropping affect your transfer plans anyway?

        2. Ninjaa
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          If you've got a good team for this week keep it and have 2 fts next week.

        3. The Knights Template
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          A, you'll make some $$, you'll lose some $$. Don't waste a trade on this.

      • Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Jimi or Martial?

        1. The Knights Template
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Jimi

      • Ninjaa
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Front 3 of vardy Werner Adams. Was planning Vardy to Martial this gw but now im seriously considering Werner to Martial and giving him the armband. Thoughts please guys???????

        1. Pompel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          That's a tricky one. Hearing that Vardy looked poor apart from the penalties, so probably still him for Martial.

        2. The Knights Template
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Vardy had 3 touches in the box and 2 were penalties. Vardy to Martial, Sir Madfincha!

          1. Old Man
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 10 days ago

            Didn't your enjoy our 48 year old scoring twice then?

            1. The Knights Template
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 10 days ago

              Touche, Old Man, touche!

      • Old Gregg
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Hello,

        McCarthy
        Dier-Taa- Taylor-Egan
        Harertz-Ali*-Auba
        Adams-Werner-martial

        Soucek-Biss-Mitchell

        Which move please

        a) Ali > Hames Rod
        B) harvertz > H Rod
        C) Ali + H > H Rod + Bruno (-4)
        D) any recommendations?

        1. HVT
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          C

        2. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 10 days ago

          H Rod that's a new one... A

      • Ahtikullervo
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Half of my team failed miserably:

        Vinagre 0
        Bednarek 1
        Mitrovic 1
        Soucek 2
        McCarthy 2
        Havertz 2
        Foden no game
        Fernandes no game
        Steer no game

        Thank God there was another half of team and 102 points from GW1 is ok.

        1. The Knights Template
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Just terrible post, terrible. Dont be afraid to boast loudly when you do well.

      • HVT
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 10 days ago

        Havertz/Doherty > Bruno/Taylor -4?

        McCarthy
        (TAA/Doherty/Ayling/Justin/Mitchell)

        Is Taylor the best 4.5 for me?

        Thanks

        1. The Knights Template
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 10 days ago

          Man, I'd be keeping Doherty