Pro Pundits - Sam

Why I’m being patient with my FPL transfers after a disappointing Gameweek 1

Fantasy Premier League managers should exercise patience, even after a difficult Gameweek 1 for some.

It can be easy to make rash transfer decisions after one round of matches, but, if I do transfer anyone out, I will be doing it after much consideration in the cold light of day, and ensuring the change is made after upcoming midweek matches.

The gap between the first two Gameweeks is one of my favourite times of an FPL season. Blank Gameweek clubs aside, we now have a full set of data from the first round of fixtures, as well as a first look at the teamsheets for each club.

That has given us more information to rely on in terms of owning the right £4.0m defenders and £4.5m midfielders, as well as the right premium assets. 

At this stage, it would be very easy to panic. There are several big decisions to be made, even after just one Gameweek in the history books.

As I write this, Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) is owned by 33.9% managers worldwide, 66% of them are perhaps wondering how to fit the Egyptian King into their squads, or how to hold their nerve for one more week – and there is the return of both Manchester clubs to contend with.

Meanwhile, there were many in the Fantasy community planning to sell Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) ahead of Gameweek 3, but his goal and Arsenal’s performance at Fulham could make such a move harder than some might have imagined. Up next, the Gunners face a West Ham side that looked off-colour against Newcastle, so Aubameyang could conceivably be heading into Gameweek 3 on the back of two decent scores.

With so many of the dilemmas featuring the most expensive players in the game, Aubameyang, Salah and the Manchester assets, I am expecting chaotic FPL transfers this week, with plenty of price changes.

Ahead of Gameweek 2, the market comes into its own as managers make early moves to bring in players and avoid price rises. 

On Saturday, 10,000 brave souls sold Salah before he had even kicked a ball against Leeds. A further 1,000 of them jettisoned him during the game itself, an outing in which he scored a hat-trick and registered a 20-point haul. 

By half-time at Craven Cottage, Aubameyang was the sixth-most transferred-in, as well as being the third-most transferred-out player. Elsewhere, Son Heung-min (£9.0m) had suffered the loss of 3,000 managers by the time Crystal Palace hosted Southampton Saturday, despite not playing until the following afternoon.

A lot of this early chopping and changing of other managers does make it hard to stick to your strategy. In such circumstances, it is easy to second-guess yourself constantly, worried about being priced out of your must-have transfer.

There is no way to win FPL, or indeed lose it, during the opening couple of Gameweeks… but you can destroy your strategy by panicking and overthinking. 

The whole of pre-season was spent formulating a team that we believed would be the right one for the beginning of the campaign, not just for Gameweek 1. 

Players such as Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.5m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m), Sadio Mané (£12.0m) and Danny Ings (£8.5m) are not, all of a sudden, bad options because they blanked in Gameweek 1. These are the sort of players who showed last season that they can often return points.

Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) is a prime example of how luck can play a part in Fantasy. He managed just three penalty box touches at West Bromwich Albion, two of which were spot-kicks, which he converted. The Leicester man did not pass the eye test at all, yet he ended up as one of the highest-scoring forwards of the Gameweek. Sometimes the luck is with you, as was the case with Vardy owners in Gameweek 1, and sometimes it’s not. This trend will continue to oscillate throughout the course of the season, so do not be too easily disheartened. Premium assets are expensive for a reason and luck can turn in a heartbeat.

As for myself, owning Salah and Aubameyang for this opening weekend was a good decision; the rest of my players were complete let-downs. 

Like many of you, I am tempted to remove some players who failed to deliver in Gameweek 1. I could switch Che Adams (£6.0m) to Patrick Bamford (£5.5m) or Saint-Maximin to Daniel Podence (£5.5m), for example. However, these sorts of rash transfer decisions, based only on frustration and data from just one match, nearly always do more harm than good in the long-term.

During the build-up to Gameweek 1, I had a plan for my transfers and I intend to stay true to it. My FPL management style is the opposite of an upside-chaser. I am loyal to my FPL assets, I like to hold and roll transfers and give myself as much thinking time and data as possible to make my decisions with. 

Between now and the Gameweek 2 deadline, we have EFL Cup matches for Newcastle, West Ham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, West Brom, Fulham, Southampton, Leeds, Everton, Sheffield United, Wolves and Brighton – and Spurs are in Europea League action too. 

As far as I am concerned, each of these is another chance to evaluate a team and the busy schedule is another reason to wait until Thursday or Friday before making my transfers.

These midweek fixtures could all throw up potential injuries that could force FPL managers into another transfer, or even an unwanted points-hit if moves have already been made. I hate doing this, so I will remain as patient as possible.

But just because I want to take this approach with transfers, does not mean I won’t be making any at all. At this stage, I am not ruling out changes for Gameweek 2.

FPL lessons learned as Martial and Rashford outscore Fernandes

I planned to start the season with a Manchester United asset on my bench so that I was ready for their Gameweek 2 match against Crystal Palace. However, in the build-up to the Gameweek 1 deadline, there were doubts around Marcus Rashford’s (£9.5m) fitness, Bruno Fernandes‘ (£10.5m) potential need for quarantine, as well as uncertainty surrounding Mason Greenwood (£7.5m) in light of an ongoing Jadon Sancho transfer saga, and the youngster’s antics while on international duty with England. The number of unknowns surrounding Manchester United assets meant I did not feel comfortable deciding who to own a whole week ahead of their opening game of the campaign.

Coupling this dilemma with the high ownership of other similarly-priced assets convinced me to go with Son for a home meeting with Everton. This was a decision which, on paper, felt like the right one. Spurs had not lost a Premier League match against Everton since December 2012. Well, now the Toffees’ last victory against them came as recently as… last weekend. Even though Son has previously represented a viable investment, his wider role in Jose Mourinho’s team continues to disappoint the South Korean’s Fantasy owners, just as it did during Project Restart.

That said, Son was always in my team as something of a cash-cow, ready and waiting to be upgraded to a Manchester United asset at some point. Is Gameweek 2 too early to pull the trigger on such a move? This was something I was happy to consider before kick-off on opening day, on reflection, I am even happier to do now. But with so many players failing to impress in Gameweek 1, the difficulty comes in deciding who my priority transfers are.

'Out of position' Zaha scores as £4.0m defender Mitchell aids Palace clean sheet

Crystal Palace surprised me in their 1-0 win over Southampton. They were stronger defensively than we saw at the end of last season, Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) is playing up-front as an out-of-position FPL midfielder and new signing Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) impressed me when he came on for a nine-minute cameo. 

But I am making sure I remember this: all of my potential moves will be on hold until after midweek action. The last thing I want is to use a transfer, only to see someone else in my squad injured in the EFL Cup or Europa League.

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Sam FPLFamily <p>Fantasy Football Scout's General Manager. Half of the FPLFamily. Pundit on the FPL Pod, Fantasy Show and Sky Sports News&nbsp;</p> Follow them on Twitter

2,806 Comments Post a Comment
  1. nobwak
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    86 all out

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Must be a tough pitch ....

      1. Now I'm Panicking
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Green seemer

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          headingley

          Can't distinguish between pitch and ground 😆

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Congrats. Great score.

    3. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Congrats Nobwak 🙂

    4. edfiasco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Well done

    5. Doctor Evil
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      78 here

  2. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Was surprised to see Azpi on the bench?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He's been injured.

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        He maintained his record though.

        Freak of a professional !

  3. ZAWAd25
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Anything necessary or just save?

    McCarthy
    TAA Doherty Taylor Justin
    Salah Auba ASM
    Kane Werner Adams

    (Nyland Mitchell Bissouma Reed)

    1. Al-Chemy
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd say save. Just keep an eye on how Kane/Spurs do and be prepared to maybe move him to Martial/Vardy

    2. Cert
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Big risk not getting any united city players in

  4. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What to do here??

    McCarthy
    TAA Robertson Ayling
    Aubameyang Havertz Alli ASM
    Werner Vardy Adams

    Nyland Bissouma Mitchell Vinagre

    1. Alli >> Greenwood ??
    2. Havertz >> Rashford ??
    3. Save

    Thanks

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Why not save and see what happens with UTD first?

    2. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Dele to Hamez

  5. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Best bet here?? 1mitb

    A....save ft

    B.....havertz to James rodrigues

    Mccarthy steer
    Taa davies shaw (vinagre ferguson)
    Salah auba havertz asm (biss)
    Werner antonio Adams

    Thanks

  6. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    If you could captain anyone this GW who would it be?

    1. Flynny
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      auba

    2. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Bruno Penandes

      1. Coys96
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Same I think - exactly for that reason!

    3. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Tempted by Salah. Can't see anything else than goals at the Bridge

      1. Coys96
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Tbh same - Salah lower ceiling than Auba or Bruno I'd say tho

    4. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Auba or Martial probably. Bruno an option too.

      1. Coys96
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Can't get Bruno without a hit unfortunately. Was thinking of Ings to Martial or Kane & ASM/Pereira to Bruno & Watkins/Mitro (-4)

        Think I prefer the first, capping Tony

    5. MagicMessi
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Richarlison

      1. Coys96
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Like that

    6. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Auba or Bruno... Auba I think...

    7. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Aboomerang

      1. Coys96
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        It will come back to hit you in the face that one!

  7. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    On a WC...the current draft comes down to

    TAA in 4-3-3

    Or

    James R in a 3-4-3

    There is a lot of bad memories associated with losing TAA. Probably works in my favour in long term but James R is very tempting

    1. NULL-X-VOID
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      James nailedness is a concern

      1. Nightcrawler
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        James rod im referring too

    2. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      That 1 next to your name clearly highlighting your know-how

      1. Utopsis
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Jesus

  8. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Southgate has some decision to make regards his right backs for Euro 2020(1).

    Trent, Walker, Trippier, James.

    If James plays all season he’ll have to be knocking on the door.

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      And Lamptey x Good thing they can all play left back too apparently.

    2. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Trent top by a mile

    3. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      AWB too.

      Not that it's much of a decision. TAA is comfortably the best footballer of that bunch.

  9. NULL-X-VOID
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    realistic chances of R.James playing coming matches, once Azpi came on James's threat almost nullified

    1. NULL-X-VOID
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Thoughts?

    2. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Azpi is club captain and all but James brings a bit of dynamism when chelsea need to break teams down. Will be annoying rotation when chilwell is back fit, but for now James is lovely to have

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He could do in the short-term (Azpi RB, James LB), but Chilwell back soon.

      Almost worth it for his PPM when he does play...

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        With chilwell fit would you expect James to play the easier ones and Azpi in the tougher ones? Hate these kinds of questions so sorry but what u reckon x

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          You'd think but honestly it's had to predict. Azpi is still the more important player.

    4. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Until Chilwell is fit, he should be nailed. After that, hard to know, probably rotated.

      1. Klaren
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Sorry reply fail, this was meant to be a reply to the other Reece James post below.

  10. Firminooooo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Havertz looked completley lost. Think I will have to bench him for KWP or take a hit. Willian will surely outscore him with 4 points against WHU.

    1. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Willian has to do more than an assist vs West Ham to outscore him by 4 points or more. He could do it but it's not "surely".

  11. kennethrhcp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    All the talk of bruno needing to be back in uk for 4am some specific morning or would miss gmwk2: that's not an issue anymore right?

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nope

      1. kennethrhcp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers Tony

  12. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Middling score of 61, but pleased there's not loads of fires to put out.

    McCarthy
    TAA / Davies / Justin / KWP
    Salah / Aubameyang / Son / ASM
    Werner / Ings

    Steer // Bissouma / Mitchell / Brewster

    - McCarthy/KWP double-up a tad risky, but not the worst issue.
    - Son/Davies a concern, but decent fixtures & were sort of placeholders anyway. (i.e. Saiss)
    - Good performances by Mitchell & Bissouma
    - Brewster looking very likely to be loaned/sold to a Premier League team.
    - Ings > Martial still on.

    We move!

    1. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Replied on previous page:

      EXACT same team as me but I got 74 due to captaining salah

      My thinking is identical to yours - definitely stick with the plan and Do Ings -> Martial

      Question is who to start this week of Mitchell, Bissouma and KWP?

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Same question as me mate, we're too template lol.

        Currently have Bissouma starting as not sold on the SOU double-up next week, although the points potential isn't really there so it could change.

        Fancy United to score so probably benching Mitchell, but again could change.

    2. Silva’s Left Nut
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      very similar to my team. not fearful of getting punished by ings > martial?

  13. raff97
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Alli owners, whats your plan? Sitting on Alli+0.5ITB which earlier I planned for Haver/Puli but obviously not now. Do I just save for 1 more week and just slum out the TV loss?

    1. Lovren an elevator
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      going to wait. Still feel the same about him, and it hardly paid off for mourinho, taking him off at half time

  14. Lovren an elevator
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is Reece James nailed? I know he did well tonight, but Azpi seems like the better option at RB?!

    1. NULL-X-VOID
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      this

    2. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Weird one. Even if Azpi starts vs Liverpool, both might in back 5, don’t rule out James.

      GW3 will be the real clue with Azpi back fully fit.

    3. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Certainly isn't nailed.

    4. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I see Azpi LB and James RB vs pool, then the rotation kicks in hard when chilwell returns. May aswell take the James points while you can because he has a lot of avenues to get them from

  15. Budgies
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    stick or twist? Wish I’d gone with my gut, Everton and Toon have some hidden gems and both strengthened, Wolves will still be pretty solid and Liverpool’s won’t be as eager this year.

    My current team:

    McCarthy, Steer
    TAA, Saiss, Davies, Saliba, Mitchell
    Aub, Salah, Son, ASM, Bissouma
    Werner, DCL, Adams

    Proposed WC:

    McCarthy, Steer
    Saiss, Digne, James, Gabriel, Mitchell
    Bruno, Aub, Salah, ASM, Bissouma
    Jimenez, DCL, Wilson

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Madness

    2. HippY
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd personally stick

    3. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Stick for sure. A hit or 2 will have you happy (not that I'm saying its needed)

  16. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Keep Alli or take hit for JRod ?

    1. puhd
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Keep for one more? I wouldn’t take hits this early on

    2. PapaWengzz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Ive done it for a hit. Upside chasing vs WBA

    3. hshepherd
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm pondering the same move! Leaning towards taking the hit but will wait till the end of the week

  17. puhd
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Havertz out for Rodriguez or Greenwood?

    1. Nightcrawler
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Rod

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Hold

    3. Steirish
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Rod

  18. HippY
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thinking of keeping same team and saving the transfer, thoughts?

    Ryan
    Digne Justin Holding
    ASM Auba(C) Salah Son
    Jimenez Adams Werner

    (McCarthy KWP Soucek Mitchell)

    1. Hiroku
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Makes sense, no urgent concerns in that team at all.

  19. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Get Bruno in tonight!?

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm pretty sure I will

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Don’t see any of those teams playing a 1st choice 11 for any of those

    2. Steirish
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I did

  20. Rhodes your boat
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts here? 1.5itb

    McCarthy
    Taa Justin Holding
    Salah auba havertz asm soucek
    Werner ings

    Button Mitchell buur davis

  21. NULL-X-VOID
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    For all those who cracked 100, congrats, ending up on 73, R.James saved me

    1. Stephenpala94
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I got the exact same score wonder if teams are similar

    2. Nightcrawler
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      75 for me but not happy with team. Salah points basically. Wc pulled

      1. Stephenpala94
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Surprisingly no Liverpool players in my team

    3. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Same score for me.

  22. No Professionals
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Bog standard start

    McCarthy
    TAA Davies Holding
    Salah aubameyang ASM Soucek
    Kane Werner Adams

    Steer Mitchell Vinagre Davis
    1m itb

    Pretty set on kane to martial.

    Would you also do ASM to Willian or James for a hit?

  23. Stephenpala94
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    If James gets his bonus points I’ll end up on 73 this GW along with 3.5m I saved in the bank

  24. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Not a fan of hits but what about:
    Bruno + Harisson IN
    Havertz + Alli OUT

    Or just sell Alli for James?

  25. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Pulisic to Rashford
    Or
    B) Son to Bruno

    1. Toked
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Steirish
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

  26. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Who do you recon will perform better in the coming weeks - Bruno or Martial ??

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Bruno, but not for 1.5m more

    2. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Damn that’s hard

    3. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Will just go for Bruno out of fear,if Man.Utd get 10+ penalties(i cant see why not with that style) he should be close to 20 goals and 10+ assists.

    4. Steirish
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Bruno for me

  27. Steager
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    When are Alli and Harvetz likely to drop? need more time to think about the next move.

  28. Salarrivederci
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Really impressed by Brighton tonight.
    Lamptey looks world class, and rossard OOP seems nailed especially if Lallana is out (again)

  29. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    werner leg strapped with ice

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Cool

    2. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Sell sell sell!!!

    3. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      declares himself fit for liverpool

  30. School of Poch
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Martial and Ings probably safe from rising or falling tonight right? Only at 45 and 30 on FPLstats