Pro Pundits - Andy

The key FPL lessons I learned from Gameweek 1 of the new season

What have I learned from Gameweek 1? It’s the same every year. Don’t panic after just one Gameweek. Remember why you chose those players. If you can save a transfer that’s ideal.

All words of wisdom we heard in pre-season, which is why less than 24 hours after Gameweek 1 ending I’ve considered no transfers, one transfer and even a hit! Fantasy Premier League is truly back.

In this article I want to see if there’s anything we can take away from Gameweek 1. It should be noted that making rash decisions based on one Gameweek is often a fools game, but we should always try and spot what we can, especially this early on.

Everton

How Spurs and Everton's new signings fared in their FPL Gameweek 1 debuts

Lots was made of Everton’s sub-par performances during Project Restart. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.0m) didn’t score at all, and they looked as a whole, very poor as a team.

Fast-forward to signing a whole new midfield in Allan (£5.5m), Abdoulaye Doucouré (£5.5m) and James Rodríguez (£7.5m), and it’s suddenly a whole different story.

The midfield three, which included Allan, Doucouré and André Gomes (£5.5m) looked like it had been playing together for years, and Rodríguez looked like that player that some people probably haven’t seen play since the World Cup in 2014. He constantly caused Ben Davies (£5.0m) issues even without pace on his side, and with five chances created against a strong enough Tottenham Hotspur side, we should be taking note.

It’s also worth noting that Everton’s game plan was to seemingly target the side of Matt Doherty (£6.0m), with Rodríguez often playing balls out to Richarlison. With West Brom, Crystal Palace and Brighton up next it may be something they continue to try, although Tariq Lamptey (£4.5m) might have something to say about that in the Brighton game.

Just to quickly touch on Lucas Digne (£6.0m) as well. It was interesting to see that Rodríguez didn’t monopolise set pieces, and Digne was still on lots of corners and free-kicks, which is ultimately where his assist came from. He only created one chance in the game, but with more freedom against teams that don’t have a marauding full back like Doherty, he could still be a great option, especially with the new look midfield giving the defence more protection.

Sheffield United

Chelsea

I’ve been pretty vocal in my excitement for Chelsea players this season but it might take a bit longer for their new signings to gel together like Everton’s did. Without some of their key players being fit, I’m looking at your Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) and Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m), it may be more sensible to hold off on loading up too soon.

They beat Brighton 3-1 but it wasn’t convincing. The xG for the game was Brighton 1.05 v 1.22 Chelsea..

Reece James (£5.0m) rewarded owners handsomely, but I’m not expecting him to score a 20 yard goal every week. And the third goal was helped through a significant deflection.

It might be harsh but I also thought Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.0m) was at fault for the goal they did concede, and it wouldn’t be the first time. I think I’ll continue avoiding Chelsea defenders until a replacement comes in (which may be soon), despite their relatively good underlying numbers last year.

In attack to say Kai Havertz (£8.5m) didn’t look good would probably be an understatement. He created just one chance and had zero shots. It’s too quick to write him off, he’s a young player, playing in a new team, in a new league, but for owners it may be concerning with Liverpool (home) up next. When Pulisic and Ziyech are finally fit we should see Havertz move more centrally, rather than playing out wide and that should broaden his points potential.

I don’t think Havertz is necessarily a rush to sell, but the timelines on certain injuries to other players in the squad would help me if I had to make that decision. After Liverpool it’s West Brom, Crystal Palace and Southampton up next, so there’s certainly some promise there.

For any promise Havertz didn’t show, Timo Werner (£9.5m)  defintiely did. He managed five shots in the box, and also won the penalty. His speed in the transition from defence to attack will be huge, and playing off the shoulder against Liverpool could see plenty of counter attacking opportunities. Just an assist is hard to swallow for his 46.5% owners, but a goal looks to be right around the corner.

Liverpool

value-players-2020-21

This probably isn’t news to some, but the Liverpool defence is still pretty good, despite heavy transfers out for the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m)

Leeds United may have impressed and scored three goals, but this came from an xG of just 0.32. On another day Leeds may not have scored at all.

What was most worrying to me was Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) making another mistake and gifting Patrick Bamford (£5.6m) a goal. It’s easy to put those mistakes down to a league winning hangover, but we don’t have that excuse now and it’s something to monitor – hopefully just first game of the season rustiness. 

I don’t think we should have been expecting too many clean sheets from Leeds, Chelsea and Arsenal in the first three Gameweeks, players like Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) and Alexander-Arnold are long term holds after all, which is why the Leeds result doesn’t put me off when you look at the underlying numbers.

In attack, Mohammad Salah (£12.0m) owners can probably consider themselves a little lucky (I know I do), to have gotten two penalties in one game. Although it’s worth noting for a lot of people getting penalties for the same price as Sadio Mané (£12.0m) was key reason behind the pick.

From an “eye test” perspective Salah looked sharp, and any pre-season lack of form or sharpness was not to be seen. The same can’t be said of Mané who I thought looked poor at times with sloppy passing that broke down some attacks.

But when you look at the underlying numbers, both Salah (0.38) and Mané (0.27) had fairly similar npXG and it’s probably not worth panicking too much after just one Gameweek. Although for some people perhaps it’s just dawned on them that penalties can be very handy in FPL, and Salah is probably worth owning long term whilst they are the same price.

For more detailed information on every match played in Gameweek 1, please check out the Scout Notes articles written by David and Neale, linked below. These include in-depth analysis as well as some exclusive additional sections for Premium Members.

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 1

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3,219 Comments Post a Comment
  1. KAPTAIN KANE
    • 3 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Which of these 2 drafts do you prefer?

    A) 4-4-2
    Meslier
    Taa | DOHERTY* | DIGNE* | Lamptey
    Salah | Bruno | Rodriguez | Soucek
    Kane | Martial

    Steer | Kwp | Davis | BISSOUMA*

    B) 3-5-2
    Meslier
    Taa | Lamptey | JUSTIN*
    Salah | Bruno | Rodriguez | GREENWOOD* | Soucek
    Kane | Martial

    Steer | Kwp | TAYLOR* | Davis

    Thanks

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Digne great choice so A

    2. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A for me but I always like a big defence. It's fixtures aren't that great so triple up seems far too much. I'd swap KWP for Taylor in A though

      1. fish&chips
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        UTD's fixtures*

    3. Zilla
      • 2 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      a

    4. Najoman86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      B -352

    5. Ramsays Raw Steak
      • 3 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A

    6. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A but lose Doherty for Taylor and upgrade Greenwood to Rashford (if funds allow)

      1. Forever In Our Shadow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Or a chelsea mid.

        1. KAPTAIN KANE
          • 3 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          Thanks all

  2. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Which 1 move to make

    A Ings to Martial ( tonight as priced out if goes up as looks likely )
    B Alli to JRod

    1. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 3 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      I would do A, think he could well be a keeper for a long time

    2. Najoman86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A

    3. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      I'm considering both of those moves but think I'll save this week to give myself more flexibility and maybe a mini WC next week

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      B.

      The priority for transfers should be to remove underperformers to constantly be improving your team. Ings played the full 90 and had lots of chances. It more directly improves your team to do B.

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Look at it this way.

        A) Ings + JRod
        B) Martial + Alli

        I think A outscores B.

        1. dunas_dog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          Makes sense- do you think Martial JRod better option for -4 ?

      2. Boberella
        • 3 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        This

    5. Snevitz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      B because see above

    6. All about the galacticos
      • 5 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A - the alternative is unthinkable

      1. All about the galacticos
        • 5 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        i thought you meant "jay" rod, lol. Even so Martial > JamesR

        1. All about the galacticos
          • 5 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          However! for ten years jrod = jay rodrigues
          Surely you cannot take that away from the man after one game?!

    7. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A. Word it like this Martial or JRod. Not really a contest.

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Yeah but there's also Ings vs Alli which is also not really a contest.

        1. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          JRod though. What about Podence for 5.5. Looked good and cheap

          1. dunas_dog
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            9 days, 8 hours ago

            Podence not certain to be nailed but if starts v City coming in for ASM for me week 3

          2. Camzy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            9 days, 8 hours ago

            Prefer JamesR. Perfect next fixture. He showed enough in the last game. Also possibly on penalties.

            1. Forever In Our Shadow
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              9 days, 8 hours ago

              Got my J rods mixed up. Thought you meant the bloody Burnley one. 😀

              1. Forever In Our Shadow
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                9 days, 8 hours ago

                In which case I retract my BS and say go for it. Alli to J Rod.

  3. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    In how many hours do prices change?

    1. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 3 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      About 35 mins I think

    2. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      1.5 hours

      1. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Use to be around 9.30 our time in Perth Australia

      2. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 3 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        I thought it was 1:30am GMT?

        1. fish&chips
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          Yes but isn't it BST in that UK right now? (1 hour ahead of GMT)

          1. KAPTAIN KANE
            • 3 Years
            9 days, 8 hours ago

            Sorry yes you are right

        2. arndff_
          • 8 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          2:30 AM (GMT) till we turn the clock 1h back. Then, price changes happen @ 1:30 AM (GMT).

          1. KAPTAIN KANE
            • 3 Years
            9 days, 8 hours ago

            Sorry yes thanks

  4. Joyce1998
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    hows this looking??

    mccarthy
    trent, saiss, justin
    salah, sterling, bruno, klich
    jimmy, DCL, cwilson

    steer, alzate, taylor, mitchell

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      WC??

      1. Joyce1998
        • 4 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        yeah mate

        1. the dom 1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          Like the Stirling and Klich picks

    2. Boberella
      • 3 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Like it.
      Better nailed 4.5 options than Justin though i'd say?
      Lamptey, Ayling, Dallas to name a few

    3. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Like the front line.

  5. Ray In Bruges.
    • 7 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    TAA KWP Justin (Mitchell, Vinagre**)
    Fernandes JRod Auba ASM Traore
    Werner Ings** (Mitrovic)

    0.5 ITB, Anything worth a hit?

  6. arndff_
    • 8 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    a) Bruno DCL -4
    b) Havertz Martial

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 11 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A

  7. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    If you had to pick
    A) Salah>Bruno
    B) Auba>Bruno
    C) Save

    1. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      C

    2. Snevitz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      I'm doing c

  8. Disturbed
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Ings Alli > martial jrod for a hit?

    1. arndff_
      • 8 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Look ok

      1. HellasLEAF
        • 11 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        think yay

  9. HellasLEAF
    • 11 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Anyone else with 2 4.0 defenders in the team? Haven't ever historically gone 2 but it set my perfect team so on it at the mo.

    1. Ray In Bruges.
      • 7 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      So long as one of them is playing so you'll need Mitchell. Done it before with some success.

    2. Long ago I drew a walrus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Many of us had 3 last season, Lundstram Rico and someone else, Kelly?

      1. HellasLEAF
        • 11 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Yes on Mitchell and Strujik right now.

        1. George Agdgdgwngo
          • 11 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          Get Mitchell and Ferguson. One of them should always play

  10. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    A) Ings > Marital
    B) TAA/Son > Digne/Fernandes (Ings to Jimenez following GW)

    1. arndff_
      • 8 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Would you feel comfortable losing TAA? Especially if you don't own Robbo, going with a Liverpool-less defensive line would be risky.

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Certainly a risk, but CHE, ARS, (avl) and EVE don't look fab. Trent looked awfully rusty.

  11. yalala
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    When will they add Bale?

    1. Zim0
      • 2 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      September 29

      1. Forever In Our Shadow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        2021

  12. Ray In Bruges.
    • 7 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Ings to Martial for a hit? Already have Bruno...

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      I'd be tempted to hold and bring in Jimenez for Ings next GW instead.

      1. Ray In Bruges.
        • 7 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Was thinking this - thanks!

      2. mattk lfc
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Didn't realise how good the next 5 after City are for Wolves. I'll definitely be doing this

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      In for Penny in for a pound.

  13. OneMan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    De Bruyne & Calvert-L

    Or

    Kane & J Rod save 0.5 ??

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 11 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A. 100%. KDB potentially the best player in the game. DCL is the best value striker in the game (in my opinion)

  14. JURGENAUT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Any changes?

    McCarthy
    TAA // Doherty // Justin
    Salah // Auba // Havertz // ASM // Soucek
    Werner // Ings

    B: Steer // Mitchell // Brewster // Douglas

    Cheers!

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Doherty to Digne.

      1. Boberella
        • 3 Years
        9 days, 7 hours ago

        This, all day long

  15. Nightf0x
    • 5 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Which?

    A) ings to martial
    B) ings alli -4 to martial jrodriguez
    C) ings alli -4 to DCL rash

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      C

  16. Ruinenlust
    • 2 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Get KDB or Bruno???

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 11 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Bruno this week. Kdb next week

      1. Ruinenlust
        • 2 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        So get Bruno this week, and then sell Bruno for KDB next week?

        1. George Agdgdgwngo
          • 11 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          No keep Bruno. I’ll be doing Auba to KDB next week

        2. The Dance
          • 9 Years
          9 days, 8 hours ago

          no

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Both. Price rises imminent

  17. HUATSHOOTER
    • 3 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Rash is a nice differential i think? 9.5 and is place as midfield this season in fpl.

    Or everyone is on bruno?

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 11 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Always bruno

      1. HUATSHOOTER
        • 3 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        No money for him as i need sell son and doherty to get bruno

    2. OneMan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Has to be Bruno. He'll compete with any of the 11.5 and 12 mids this season.

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Rashford hasn't looked on-form since post-restart. Apparently looked a bit off the boil in the closed-doors friendly, too. Bruno or Martial for me.

  18. Klaren
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Could someone remind me what time the price changes take place please?

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Hour and a quarter.

      1. Klaren
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Thanks!

    2. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      its either in about 25 min or an hour according to last page

    3. Soto Ayam
      • 1 Year
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      2.30 UK time

  19. Joyce1998
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    g2g??

    mccarthy
    taa, saiss, jsutin
    salah, sterling, bruno, klich
    DCL, cwislon, jimmy

    steer, alzate, taylor, mitchell

  20. mlm
    • 2 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Son+Adams => Rodriguez+DLC??

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Just get one.

  21. Worsle90
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Any thoughts on my GW2 team?

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    TAA, Doherty, Bellerin (Mitchell, Amartey)
    Auba, KDB, Bruno, Harrison, Soucek
    Wilson, Werner (Brewster)

  22. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    From GW3, would you prefer Jiminez or Richarlison?

    Both good fixtures and potentially exciting teams.

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      I dont like the price of either TBH but i would go Jimenez for PKs

    2. FortunesAlwaysHiding
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Jimenez for sure

  23. sirmorbach
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Lads, good to go?

    Ryan (FUL)
    TAA (che), Doherty (sou), Dallas (FUL)
    Auba (c) (WHU), Salah (che), Greenwood (CRY), Harrison (FUL), Soucek (ars)
    Werner (che), Martial (CRY)

    KWP (TOT), Mitchell (mun)

  24. Nightf0x
    • 5 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Alli to greenwood ? Or he wont play ?

    1. RedAlpha10
      • 1 Year
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      With all the sancho rumours its best to hold off on Greenwood, maybe he plays the next gameweek but maybe not 3 or 4 depending on the news

  25. RedAlpha10
    • 1 Year
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Best 5.5m Midfielders?? except Soucek Podence and Saint Max, Thank you.

    1. FortunesAlwaysHiding
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Pedro Neto?

      1. Joyce1998
        • 4 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        klich/harrison

  26. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    A or B?
    A. Ings -> Martial
    B. Werner, Alli -> DCL, Bruno
    Ta.

    1. Nightf0x
      • 5 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Same

    2. Nightf0x
      • 5 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Alli will drop

  27. QPR CARIBBEAN
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    If JRod represents Colombia during the international break will he have to quarantine upon his return to the UK?
    Colombia v Venezuela 8 Oct
    Chile v Colombia 13 Oct

    1. Fudgy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Nah different rules for players

      1. QPR CARIBBEAN
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        9 days, 8 hours ago

        Thanks!

  28. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Anyone selling Salah this week. Feels crazy

    1. Joyce1998
      • 4 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      naah season keeper

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      Don’t do it

  29. Joyce1998
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    A- bruno + cwilson
    or
    B- willian + martial

    1. EgyptianKing
      • 2 Years
      9 days, 8 hours ago

      A

  30. EgyptianKing
    • 2 Years
    9 days, 8 hours ago

    Mates am I G2G?

    Ramsdale
    TAA; Robertson; KWP; Dier
    Auba (C); Salah; Son; ASM
    Mitro; Martial

    Cheers!