Spot the Differential

Jesus still offers reliable differential potential ahead of FPL Gameweek 3

After a disappointing start in Gameweek 1, we’re back on track having tipped Timothy Castagne (£5.6m) and Raheem Sterling (11.5m) last week.

This time, we’ve selected three differentials who are already off the mark this season, including two forwards who hit double figures last term, and a midfielder who we think is a viable alternative to community favourites Daniel Podence (£5.6m) and Phil Foden (£6.5m), without the rotation worries.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Gabriel Jesus

  • FPL ownership: 3.0%
  • Price: £9.5m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: LEI | lee | ARS | whu | shu

With Sergio Agüero (£10.4m) still recovering from a knee injury, Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) looks set for an extended run in Manchester City’s starting XI, which hands FPL managers a potentially explosive differential option.

Having undergone knee surgery back in June, Pep Guardiola confirmed last week that Agüero is yet to train with his team-mates and will require longer than other players to get back up to speed – potentially up to two months.

In his absence, Jesus will most likely be tasked with leading the line, and his statistics from last season highlight just how influential he can be. 

His 101 shots, 92 of which arrived inside the box, and 34 big chances ranked second amongst all forwards, while of those who played a significant number of minutes, only Agüero could improve on his 0.78 expected goals (xG) per90. Despite, at times, being wasteful in front of goal, it demonstrates his ability to consistently get into good shooting positions.

Jesus was on the scoresheet in Manchester City’s first match of the season in Gameweek 2, as he returned deep into injury time in a 3-1 win at Wolverhampton Wanderers. Interestingly, Guardiola paired Rodri (5.5m) and Fernandinho (5.5m) up at the base of his midfield, with Foden, Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), Sterling and Jesus in front in a flexible 4-2-3-1, and it worked rather well. The Brazilian’s link up play, work rate and physicality stood out, while his two shots in the box matched that of Foden and De Bruyne.

Currently owned by just 3.0% of FPL managers, Jesus is a big differential who can provide a medium-term solution till Agüero returns from injury.

Matheus Pereira

  • FPL ownership: 2.5%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: CHE | sou | BUR | bha | ful

Matheus Pereira (£6.0m) lit up the Championship last season, and finished the campaign with a total of eight goals and 16 assists.

116 chances created – more than any other player – and 111 shots over 42 appearances highlights his importance, but how will he fare in the Premier League?

Well, so far, pretty well, and it’s been a testing couple of weeks for newcomers West Bromwich Albion.

Already, Pereira has been involved in both of his side’s goals. He provided an assist for Grady Diangana’s (£5.5m) opener against Everton and also scored a superb free-kick in the same match. He also leads the way amongst team-mates for shots, chances created, final-third touches and take-ons, while offering multiple routes to points via set-pieces.

Last season, as the standout player in Albion’s attack, Pereira operated either as a number 10 in a 4-2-3-1 or out wide in a 4-3-3. However, this season, manager Slaven Bilić has mainly, and somewhat surprisingly, opted to use a back three system, which has seen the playmaker drift infield from his starting position on the right, with wing-back Daniel Furlong (£4.5m) offering width down that side. Whether or not this is a long-term solution, or simply to combat tough opposition, time will tell.

A Gameweek 3 home encounter at home to Chelsea is followed by a promising run of fixtures which sees the Baggies take on Southampton, Burnley, Brighton and Hove Albion and Fulham, and while this weekend’s matchup isn’t ideal, it’s worth pointing out the Blues have given up more chances down their left-side than any other zone in the opening two Gameweeks.

The likelihood is that West Brom will struggle this season, but if they can get Pereira on the ball often enough, they’re sure to create chances and score goals.

Chris Wood

using-the-top-10000-ownership-to-increase-your-fpl-rank-andys-article 7
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £6.5m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: SOU | new | wba | TOT | CHE

2019/20 was the third season in a row that Chris Wood (£6.5m) has scored double figures in the Premier League.

The focal point of Burnley’s attack hit 14 goals in 29 starts, while only three forwards in the entire division registered more than his 31 big chances.

What’s particularly impressive is that he accumulated those numbers off of a modest 65 shots on goal, of which 41 arrived at Turf Moor, where he thrived and scored 64% of his goals.

Having finished the season strongly with goals in each of his last three appearances, Wood has continued from where he left off, as he found the back of the net in The Clarets’ first match of the season at Leicester City, logging three shots in the box and a further two big chances.

Burnley’s tenth placed finish last term possibly hasn’t been talked about enough. After a run of four defeats around the New Year, they lost just twice in 16 games, one of which was against Manchester City, and the other on the final day of the season.

Looking ahead to the weekend, Wood could find some joy against Southampton if they continue with their high defensive line. The 28-year-old loves to operate on the shoulder of the last man in an attempt to stretch the game. It resulted him in being caught offside more times than any other player last season, which is something he discussed in a recent interview with The Athletic: “It really doesn’t bother me, getting caught offside, because I know that the one time that I don’t, I’ll be in on goal.”

The closer Wood is to goal, the more dangerous he becomes, and ahead of a home tie against a vulnerable Saints defence, is a tempting differential.

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £19.99. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/894/history”

1,040 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Chung8
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    On WC A or B

    A)
    Martinez ( Nyland)
    TAA Robbo Lamptey Mitchell James
    KDB Son Hamez Podence Bissouma
    DCL Werner Ings

    B)
    Martinez ( Nyland)
    TAA Castagne James Saiss Mitchell
    KDB Son Hamez Podence Bissouma
    DCL Werner Jesus
    0.3 ltb

    1. LC1
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      B

    2. Lindelol
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      A

    3. HulkyPunter BloodBath
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      B

    4. Gleys11
        2 months, 4 days ago

        A

    5. Flynny
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      On wildcard:

      A.....robbo and reece james

      B....trent and Charlie Taylor

      Thanks

      1. LC1
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        A

      2. The Red Devil
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        B

      3. K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        I am on A

      4. Gleys11
          2 months, 4 days ago

          B

      5. TeddiPonza
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        On wildcard

        Martinez Forster
        Saiss Lamptey Justin CTaylor Mitchell
        Salah KdB Son Podence Burke
        Werner DCL Jimenez

        Got 1,2m in the bank. Any suggestions?

        A. Podence to Foden
        B. Justin/CTaylor to Reece James
        C. Upgrade Martinez
        D. Save in bank for a rainy day
        E. Something else

        Thanks!!

        1. LC1
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Justin to Castagne or upgrade Taylor to James?

      6. money face bandwagon
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Salah -> sterling?

        1. tokara
          • 6 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          No?

      7. theswallow1965
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        W/C dilemma now with KDB. Bought him in early at 11.5
        Is it safer to switch to Sterling? Trouble is it will cost me 11.6 to buy KDB back!
        Grrrrrrrr

        1. Chandler Bing
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          What happened to KdB?

          1. IRBOX ⚽
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Decapitated apparently

          2. Gandalf
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Knock to back of his head and was down for a few mins. Distortion per Pep but if slight concussion would need to sit out the weekend

          3. Amey
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Cook hit him with his elbow to beck of his head/neck apparently.

        2. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          2 months, 4 days ago

          I switched to Sterling, not worth the risk but let's see what news arrives. N

        3. Bubz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Keep KDB

        4. Gleys11
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Keep

        5. FPL_Hazards
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Any news on Marcal / Vinagre?

          1. avfc82
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Not yet, Nuno press conference at 1pm.

          2. xHaTr
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            No offense to Marcal but him being out for 3 months would be mightily convenient

            1. avfc82
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Yeah, you just know Semedo will move to left-back tho and heap more misery on us Vinagre owners!

        6. quayle99
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Struggling with the captain choice out of these

          A. Salah
          B. KDB
          C. DCL
          D. Martial
          E. Auba

          1. avfc82
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            I'm on Salah.

            1. Flair
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Not worried about Tierney locking down Arsenal's left flank?

              1. avfc82
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Nope, feel pretty confident this one will come off, Salah is an animal at Anfield.

          2. xHaTr
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            B

            Cant remember the last time KDB blanked at home

            1. Flair
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Newcastle after the restart I think

              He's such a fraud in that free 8 position

              1. xHaTr
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Think that might be Fodens this weekend

                1. Flair
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  Hope so, but if Foden partners KDB - assuming he plays - both are free 8s and not a 10

          3. IRBOX ⚽
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Mo Salah, Mo Salah!

          4. Amey
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            When in doubt, Salad.

            Although KDB is safe option too IMO as if he's concused won't be in team anyways.

          5. Gleys11
              2 months, 4 days ago

              B then A

          6. Ask Yourself
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Jonny Evans is back for Leicester. Their defence is not as calamitous as initially feared

            1. tokara
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              evans is shitty

          7. LewanGOALski
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Apparently Arkadiusz Milik is close to coming to Premier League.
            Tottenham, Everton and Newcastle are in talks with his agent.

          8. CrouchDown
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Sterling or Werner for captain?

            1. Amey
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Timo

            2. Miguel Sanchez
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 4 days ago

              Sterling

            3. Gleys11
                2 months, 4 days ago

                Werner

            4. shiraz
                2 months, 4 days ago

                toying with the idea of a salah-less squad

                McCarthy (Nyland)
                Ake-TAA-Saiss (Lamptey, Mitchell)
                KDB-Son-JRod-Mount (Anguissa)
                Werner-DCL-Jim

                Risky?

                1. HulkyPunter BloodBath
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 6 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  Rather have sterling over salah then.switch will be easier

                2. The Knights Template
                  • 7 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  Too much shiraz?

                3. Gleys11
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    Im going Salahless. Always a risk.
                    Could do TAA to Robbo, Ake to 5.0 but all personal choices and what you have looks fine.

                4. klopptimusprime
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  Reckon G2G?

                  Martinez
                  Robbo \ Saiss \ Mitchell
                  Salah \ KDB (C) \ JRod* \ Podence
                  DCL \ Jimi \ Jesus
                  __________________________________________
                  Forster \ Burke \ Lamptey \ Justin/Taylor 0.2ITB

                  *Barnes might come in GW4

                  Cheers guys

                5. Lxnzini
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  Morning fellow WCers
                  Settled on this would appreciate some feedback

                  1. Miguel Sanchez
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    It's a bit light

                  2. Viper
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    Not enough players for my liking

                    1. Lxnzini
                      • 4 Years
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      Hahaha yeah could be in trouble. 1 second will post again

                      1. Viper
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        2 months, 4 days ago

                        It's only fair I comment on it 🙂

                  3. IRBOX ⚽
                    • 3 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    10/10

                  4. The Knights Template
                    • 7 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    Translucent team?

                6. TimoTime
                  • 1 Year
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  What is better?

                  A) Havertz + DCL

                  B) Podence + Werner

                  B would mean I have no Everton cover in my team.

                  If I went with A, I probably would have Werner in for Jesus anyway, but going straight with B means I line up with Jesus + Werner off the bat for GW3

                  1. The Knights Template
                    • 7 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    A

                7. DaddyPig
                  • 6 Years
                  2 months, 4 days ago

                  Good morning all! Quick one.
                  Who would you rather have playing each week on a WC?

                  A) Werner and Lamptey
                  B) DCL and Foden

                  Thank you so much!

                  1. Viper
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    B

                  2. HulkyPunter BloodBath
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 6 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    B given dcl will get upteen service

                  3. Warby84
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    A

                  4. The Knights Template
                    • 7 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    A

                  5. Gleys11
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      B

                  6. Do I Not Like Orange
                    • 8 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    How does this WC look? Have left 1.4 ITB to bring in an extra City player next GW.

                    Martinez Forster
                    TAA Robbo Saiss Lamptey Mitchell
                    KDB Son Jrod Podence Burke
                    Werner Jimmy Mitro

                  7. Viper
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    Any reason why I can't view the captain poll?

                    I submitted my vote (KDB) but it just said thanks for voting with no results?

                    1. Warby84
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      Submit —-> previous comments

                      Kev 19%
                      Werner 16
                      Salah 11
                      Son 10

                  8. Sgt Frank Drebin
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    Will Justin even lose his place in the starting eleven once Perreira is back? Won't Perreira replace Castagne on the right side?

                    1. Viper
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      Castagne can play both sides & looks a better player than Justin

                    2. avfc82
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 10 Years
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      Long term, I expect Pereira will play right, Castagne left, sounds like it's a few weeks off happening tho.

                    3. Bubz
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      Castagne and Perreira are both way better than Justin

                    4. Jullepuu
                      • 1 Year
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      They bought Castagne for big money. He won't get benched if he continues to perform well

                    5. skodaole2
                      • 8 Years
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      Nobody can say for sure. Maybe the attacking potential Castagne and Justin showed in the first two games may make Rodgers use one of them as OOP in the flank. We do not even know when Pereira will be ready to start a game so will keep Justin and Castagne in my team until something changes

                  9. Dannyb
                    • 3 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    Hows this no pool wc looking? Like im gonna be in trouble
                    Guita
                    Saiss Castagne James
                    Sterling Son Zaha Hamez
                    Werner Jesus Jiminez
                    Steer Mitchell Dunne Anguissa
                    0.5itb

                    1. TimoTime
                      • 1 Year
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      Looks good

                      However, Zaha to Podence for example surely allows you to bring in a Pool defender? Pool defence + Podence probably outscores Zaha + one of you current defenders imo

                  10. meechamspowders
                    • 9 Years
                    2 months, 4 days ago

                    a) castagne, Zaha & jesus
                    b) vvd, son & mitro

                    1. Gleys11
                        2 months, 4 days ago

                        B, but depends on the rest of the team.

                    2. The Red Devil
                      • 5 Years
                      2 months, 4 days ago

                      Pick a combo, on WC
                      A- Pope Lamptey Rodriguez
                      B- Ryan VVD Zaha
                      C- Guaita Digne Zaha

                      Currently on B

                      1. Viper
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        2 months, 4 days ago

                        C I think

                      2. Gleys11
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          I have B also and not planning to change

                      3. Kuzser
                        • 3 Years
                        2 months, 4 days ago

                        What's the best way to spread 30.9m across 4 players to complete WC?

                        Also, do you think double Wolves attack(Podence and Jiménez) is too much?
                        1) Son Zaha Podence -Werner (*Robbo instead of TAA)
                        2) Son Foden Podence - Werner
                        3) Son Podence - Wood Werner
                        4) Zaha Havertz - Wood Jimenez
                        5) Foden Barnes - Werner Jimenez (*Robbo instead of TAA)

                        Martinez
                        TAA Saiss Taylor
                        KdB Salah XXX XXX
                        Dcl XXX XXX

                        Bench: Justin Mitchell, Burke/Brewster, 4.0

                      4. CrouchDown
                        • 8 Years
                        2 months, 4 days ago

                        Will Foden start at the weekend?

                        1. Fudgy
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 1 Year
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          Just spoke to Pep and he said maybe

                          1. Gooner Kebab
                            • 8 Years
                            2 months, 4 days ago

                            Definitely maybe

                            1. Miguel Sanchez
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 4 Years
                              2 months, 4 days ago

                              What's the Story?

                        2. Miguel Sanchez
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 4 Years
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          50/50 I'd say

                        3. Warby84
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 5 Years
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          I think Mahrez will get a game vs his former club..

                      5. Lfcni1986
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 2 Years
                        2 months, 4 days ago

                        Ryan
                        Boly Saiss Holding
                        Zaha Son(C)Salah Rashford
                        Jiminez Jesus Mitrovic

                        Walton Lampty Jageilka Helder Costa

                        Thoughts?

                      6. The Truth Is...
                        • 4 Years
                        2 months, 4 days ago

                        My team is a bit different to what ive seen on here but im after some constructive criticism please.

                        Pope
                        Taa James KWP
                        Salah KDB Fernandes Pereira Costa
                        Jimenez Wilson

                        Subs Peacock Farrell..Mitchell..Buur..Davis.

                        Thanka in advance

                        1. The Knights Template
                          • 7 Years
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          Why is it a bit different?

                      7. Pépé Pig
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 2 Years
                        2 months, 4 days ago

                        Final decision on WC -

                        A) Robbo + JRod

                        B) Semedo/Castagne + Son

                        1. The Knights Template
                          • 7 Years
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          A

                        2. Gleys11
                            2 months, 4 days ago

                            A

                        3. xHaTr
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 2 Years
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          Current captain poll results, given many are struggling to see them:

                          KDB - 19.6%
                          Werner - 16%
                          Salah - 11.5%
                          Son - 10.8%
                          Kane - 5.9%

                        4. Flair
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          Considering Lampard's tendency to choose the form players, I wonder if this is how he'll lineup.

                          Abraham
                          Werner - Havertz - Mount

                          Not sure what this means for Timo, he does like playing next to a fellow striker but Abraham is far from the target men he's used to playing with, however his linkup against Barnsley was very impressive. Him or Jesus will go down to the wire!

                          1. Miguel Sanchez
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 4 Years
                            2 months, 4 days ago

                            I can see this being the front four tomorrow

                        5. Lxnzini
                          • 4 Years
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          Thoughts on below WC chaps?

                          Martinez
                          TAA Saiss James
                          Salah KDB Foden Podence
                          DCL Jimi Werner
                          Nyland Lamptey Mitchell Anguissa

                          Am tempted to bring son in place of one of the FWDs and all play 352 is all.

                          1. Flair
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            2 months, 4 days ago

                            Basically the template

                          2. The Knights Template
                            • 7 Years
                            2 months, 4 days ago

                            Arise, Sir Lxnzini!

                        6. Tosa86
                          • 3 Years
                          2 months, 4 days ago

                          My draft for WC:

                          Ryan - Martinez
                          TAA - Digne - Castagne - Saiss - Mitchell
                          Son - Zaha - Jrodz - Costa - KDB
                          DCL - Jimmy - Mitrovic

                          ItB:0.9

                          any suggestion/feedback?

                          1. The Knights Template
                            • 7 Years
                            2 months, 4 days ago

                            Admittedly I looked quickly, but didn't see Salah.