Pro Pundits - Sam

Why I look to the underlying stats rather than FPL points for early-season transfers

FPL Family’s Sam explains how player stats help her decide whether to stay loyal to a Fantasy asset early in the season.


Transfer strategy and planning is one of the biggest parts of Fantasy Premier League management in the first few Gameweeks of the season.

There are always some players who come from nowhere to embark on a fantastic run, regardless of fixtures. This season, players like Patrick Bamford (£5.8m) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.4m) seem to be falling into that category.

With these players, it makes sense to move early and benefit not only from their form and FPL points but also from price rises and therefore valuable improvements in team value.

However, there are others who have made an excellent start to the season and returned good early points for their managers but who haven’t necessarily had the history of consistent FPL returns. This makes many experienced Fantasy managers wary and question whether they are a wise investment in the long term or whether they are a transfer waiting to happen in a few weeks when the purple patch ends and their returns falter. 

For me, Alexandre Lacazette (£8.5m) may very well fall into this category, which potentially explains why his ownership is still very low even though he has returned seven points in each of the opening three Gameweeks of the season.

Separating the long-term picks from those that have short-term potential and those that we should avoid altogether can be a challenge, especially when this is coupled with decisions on players that you own already and would have to make way for one of these in-form assets. 

During pre-season, I was hugely impressed with Che Adams (£5.9m). He was eye-catching with his attacking returns, positioning, partnership with Danny Ings (£8.4m) and general all-round match fitness and attitude. Fast forward to Gameweeks 1 and 2 and Southampton really struggled to get going. At this stage, Adams took a price drop as many managers looked to make the move away from a Southampton team who seemed off-kilter.

However, a look through the Premium Members Area suggested that actually, it wasn’t necessarily an easy decision and that the underlying stats were there to support maintaining the faith in Adams. Maybe, just maybe, transferring him out was premature. 

Adams’ expected goals (xG) tally across the opening two Gameweeks suggested he was incredibly unlucky not to have returned. His xG currently is sitting at 1.28 for the 2020/21 season, his expected goal involvement (xGI) is 1.52, and he ranks very highly in Joe’s ‘Goals Imminent’ table – so his underlying stats suggested he is worth some loyalty.

He has had 89 touches so far this season, registering a touch every 2.7 minutes, with a goal involvement of 50% and a successful take-on percentage of 100%. His total of six goal attempts is more than Anthony Martial (£8.9m) with two, Roberto Firmino (£9.4m) with four, and level with his much more expensive teammate Danny Ings (£8.4m) and Jamie Vardy (£10.0m).

Adams finally returned in Gameweek 3, registering his first assist of the season as Southampton bounced back from their defeat by Spurs in Gameweek 2. That wasn’t before he had taken a price drop ahead of the game against Burnley, however. 

It can be very easy at the start of the season to look at players like Adams and “rage-transfer” them out for others in the same price point that have performed well or indeed to take hits and redistribute money to upgrade these players.

This is when the Premium Members Area really comes into its own for me, as purely looking at points scored isn’t often reflective of the way the season has started for the player – so there is potential that you lose a player before they come good.

werner-replacements 2

The aforementioned Vardy is an example of this. On paper, he is a perfect FPL asset with five goals so far. However, those five goals have come from just six shots, and four of them were penalties. When you look at Vardy’s xG of 3.60 he looks like a fantastic option, which with the level of penalties awarded this season he is. However, his non-penalty XG is just 0.45 and that is far lower than we would expect for a player of his price tag.

Looking closely at the underlying stats alongside the eye test is essential for ensuring the right transfers. It does seem easier to stay loyal to players who sit in the value bracket, however the underlying stats for the early Gameweeks applies to the premium assets just as much.

Going into Gameweek 1, the lack of clarity around Manchester United in terms of transfers and player fitness meant that I made a last-minute decision not to start the season with Bruno Fernandes (£10.5m) or Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) on the bench and instead bring in Son Heung-min (£9.0m) for Spurs’ opening game at home to Everton. At the end of that Gameweek, I decided to ignore the underlying stats for that Everton game and make my preplanned transfer, which was to swap Son for Fernandes. This was a big mistake. Son scored four goals in Gameweek 2 against Southampton, whereas Fernandes blanked versus Crystal Palace.

For me, this taught me a valuable lesson both in terms of flexibility and not being afraid of going against the original planning. 

The eye test and Premium Members Area comparisons have always been a vital part of the way that I manage my FPL team but I often use it more for the budget and mid-priced options. 

The Son fiasco has made me aware that underlying stats are just as important for the premium players as they are for the cheaper options. Overall, missing out on Son’s haul hurt but it proved to me that loyalty pays off – so long as the stats back up the decision to hold.


Lessons Learned from FPL Gameweek 3

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566 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hotdogs for Tea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    How is James Egersdorff getting on this season? any one have a link to his team ?

    1. Daniel - Go Granville
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      feel free to watch the wire, way better content than egersdof

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        just want to see his team really, don’t watch podcasts ... life is too short and you can never get that time back 🙂

        1. Honourvolley
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          1.7m OR and a 34 point WC team last GW (not alone)

          ID: 259780

  2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Good to go?

    Martinez
    Digne James Saiss Justin
    Salah KDB Foden Podence
    Jimenez DCL

    (Steer Son* Ayling Brewster) 0FT 1.7M

    Considering DCL for the armband

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Looking good - smart hold on Son but would be tempted to put him in the XI in case it is just Jose mind games.

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Cheers bud!

  3. Pukki Blinders
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Captain Sterling or Jimi?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Sterling a nice option, much prefer him to KDB this week

    2. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Sterling is by far the best (C) option this week IMO

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 26 days ago

        90 mins in the cup makes me worried he gets subbed off early if they are up though... though I don’t think Pep would take that risk given their loss last week

        1. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Not sure him playing 20 minutes less makes that much of a difference, could have hit a brace by then.

    3. NABIL - 1 season 1der
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      S

  4. French Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Any injury update on Podence?

    1. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Pressers today and tomm mate

      1. Daniel - Go Granville
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Great wire Lateriser, please keep it up.

        P.S. Sterling captain again?

      2. French Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        watched the past two pods, great work - Thank you to all 3 of you for your contribution

        1. Lateriser 12
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          thanks both and yes dan 🙂

  5. NABIL - 1 season 1der
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    A. Play Kane and Soucek
    B. Kane & Gordon out for Ings & Foden (-4) and bench Soucek

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 26 days ago

      A

      1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Thanks man

    2. Honourvolley
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      A

      1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Cheers

  6. Flair
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Dias at 5.5 is so appealing, only issue is locked out of triple MCI attack and if the decrease in CS (overall) continues. Laporte should fix that though, our CS record with him last season was outstanding. Semedo -> Dias at GW10 on the cards

    1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Is he a goal threat like Ake? Ake is such a great header of the ball

      1. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 26 days ago

        9G in 91 Portugese League matches so I'd assume he is. Useful with the immense amount of corners we win.

        1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Cheers man. If he nails a spot, looks like a shoe in for me

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Does he start with Ake Laporte around though ?

      1. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Definitely starts over Ake, not sure why people believe he's a threat to Dias. Dias-Laporte as the main CB partnership with Ake backup to Laporte, Stones/Ferna backup to Dias.

  7. Cometh The Aouar...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 26 days ago

    Morning people

  8. Joey Tribbiani
      1 month, 26 days ago

      Bamford doesn't seem likely to rise before saturday, wanted 1 more price rise out of him before switching to Jimenez.
      Should I do Bamford -> Jimenez (-4), really want him for FUL, or should I just play Patrick against Man City?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Jimenez has quite a low ceiling so prob not worth the hitc

        1. Joey Tribbiani
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Just had a look at his 19/20 PL stats. He got double returns in only 3 games last season, City away (2 assists), City home (1 goal, 1 assist) and Southampton away (2 goals). So I think I've made my decision, thanks.

      2. Riders of Yohan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        With £2.5m ITB & 0FT, do I take a hit for Son out:

        A) Sterling
        B) Bruno
        C) Mahrez
        D) Barnes
        E) hold

        McCarthy
        TAA, KWP, Justin
        Son, Salah, KDB, Hamez, Soucek
        Adams, Jimi

        Nyland. Taylor, Mitchel, Brewster

      3. The Overthinker
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        When is Brewster joining another pl club? He is taking up my 3rd Liverpool spot !!!

        1. Pukki Blinders
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Needs to be before the 5th, gotta agree personal terms with SHU

      4. riot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        Hope Richarlison's alright. Too afraid to see how much DCL has risen

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Carlo was talking up his chances of playing on Saturday and Richarlison does have a very good (minimal) injury history

      5. Jackson99
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        McCarthy
        TAA Doherty Justin
        Zaha Son KDB Salah James
        DCL Mitro

        Steer Lamptey Mitchell Davis

        Which is the best option:
        A) Son to Barnes for -4
        B) Son to Mahrez for -4
        C) Play Lamptey

        Cheers!

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          C - Son could be back for GW5, possibly even this GW

      6. Shaw Manc Redemption
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 26 days ago

        I'm feeling the DCL pressure with Ings, Jimi and Mitro up top. He'll be 7.5 by tomorrow morning. Oh well.

      7. Zrinkec
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Salah
          Auba
          Jimmy
          Ings

          Who for captain?

          1. Pukki Blinders
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Ings

          2. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Auba or Ings

          3. Flair
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Auba

        • NABIL - 1 season 1der
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          So if Rich is out this weekend, who will probably start in his place?

          Hopefully not Siggy since I fancy Hames to take the next PK

          1. riot
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Gordon potentially

            1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              My 5th mid! 😀 bigger hope now

          2. Pukki Blinders
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Probably Iwobi

            1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Yeah could be.

          3. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Iwobi

            1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Cheers

        • Atimis
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Thinking Jim (c) may be the best bet ?

          McCarthy
          TAA/Justin/Vinagre
          Salah/KDB/Bruno/Foden/Podence
          Jim/DCL

          Steer/Davies/Mitchell/Brewster

          1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Nah, one of your biggies in midfield

          2. riot
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Unless you're really doubtful on KDB/Salah away it's hard to look past one of them. On KDB personally

          3. Atimis
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Ain't KDB and Salah homeboys?

            1. Reyson
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              just stick to Jimmy, am sure we gonna overtake the rest

        • The Head-Ake
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Took a hit and eventually ended up with this. Thoughts? 🙂

          McCarthy
          Lamptey | Justin | TAA | Walker-Peters
          Mahrez | Salah | Havertz | KDB(c)
          Werner | DCL

          Martin | Bissouma | Mitchell | Davis

          1. Malinwa
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Looks decent!
            Only Werner is a doubtful case for me...

          2. NABIL - 1 season 1der
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Big or bust this week. GL

        • Malinwa
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Need to start all over again after Rich injury... Could use some advise here!

          A/ Rodriguez - Bamford - Harrison
          B/ DCL - Barnes - Townsend

          Martinez
          TAA - Justin - Saïs - James
          KDB - Salah - ?
          Ings - Jimenez - ?

          Bench: Steer - ? - Mitchell - Anguissa

          1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            DCL Barnes Trossard

            1. Malinwa
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Or DCL - Barnes and upgrade James > Castagne ?

              1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 26 days ago

                Hold James

        • Silent Friend
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Why are you captaining KDB?

          He is a homeboy, all of his double digits points last season came at home.
          1 penalty + 1 lucky assist so far. City is a mess at the moment, they looks hopeless in the last EPL game (never see them like that). Dont let the game vs Burnley reverse effect you...

          1. n14mul
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            I guess you missed the game last season when he tore arsenal up at the Emirates?

            1. n14mul
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Not to mention they play Leeds who are wide open at the back

          2. Camzy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Home and away is one of the most annoyingly touted trends in FPL.

            First off, home advantage doesn't seem to be much of a thing this season with 18 of 28 games being won by the away side, secondly, these home/away conclusions aren't even correct. You need multiple seasons worth of data to be sure they exist for individual players.

            Take Liverpool for example. Mane scored 18/22 goals at home in 18/19. Salah last season became the homebody, scoring all but 4 goals at home. And because of recency bias, people are drawing wild conclusions like captain Salah at home and Mane away after two games that followed this pattern. This season in particular, it means almost nothing.

            1. NABIL - 1 season 1der
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              This. Wish I captained Kane in GW2

              1. Camzy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 26 days ago

                The only thing I think we can conclusively say is that 'teams' have a slight advantage playing at home and are more likely to get a positive result.

                Beyond that, trends like Salah will do better at home is due to the fact that Liverpool won 18 of 19 games at home last season. When Liverpool win, Salah is more likely to score... Same for Mane.

                1. All Hail K
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 26 days ago

                  I agree with this but also have to consider that some teams change their strategies home and away which can favour some players over others.

          3. The Fed
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            - The guy is the best player in the league
            - Plays for the most explosive offense that scored over 100 goals last season
            - Plays advanced as the number 10
            - On penalties, direct freekicks, indirect freekicks, corners
            - Up against a Leeds team that will press high and allow spaces

          4. Pukki Blinders
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 26 days ago

            The hype around KDB is ridiculous, Sterling much better

            1. Camzy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              I sort of agree. If I had both I think I'd rather captain Sterling.

            2. The Fed
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Sterling has a higher chance of scoring, but KDB has a higher chance of goal involvement. Both goods options as captain this week.

              1. Pukki Blinders
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 26 days ago

                Sterling has the haul potential which makes him a better caption option imo

                1. tokara
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 26 days ago

                  Already exploded last night

                  1. Flair
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    1 month, 26 days ago

                    He's no longer due

        • Cojiro
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          A) Son and Werner to Sterling/KDB and Ings -4
          Or
          B) Son to Mahrez

          1. Malinwa
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            A

          2. RichRover
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            A, with Sterling?

        • Johan Queef
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          1FT and deciding whether to make aggressive moves or put out fires this week. A poor start so any help appreciated!

          McCarthy (Steer)

          Trent, Robbo, Taylor, Davies* (Mitchell)

          Salah, KDB, James (ASM*, Bissouma)

          Werner*, Mitro, Adams

          A) Davies -> Lamptey, James, Wolves

          B) ASM -> Podence/Trossard

          C) Werner -> Jimmy

          D) Werner & ASM -> DCL & Barnes (-4)

          My playing style is quite patient so leaning towards A or B but please send any advice my way!

        • BHA_Seagull
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Going to ship out Grealish this week.
          7.5 ITB
          Who do you go for?
          Currently on Barnes

          1. Concrete
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Why are you getting rid?

          2. waltzingmatildas
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            He's on my watchlist to bring in!

        • Concrete
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Adams or Kane to DCL for a hit isn’t worth it is this week is it?

          Int break coming up, then Liverpool ....

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            No, not worth a hit unless you are sure DCL hits a brace this weekend and Adams and Kane definitely blank.

            1. Concrete
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Cheers...my thinking too. Kane and Adams odds off getting returns must be high

        • Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 26 days ago

          Really like Lacazette as an option but somehow don't think I'll ever end up owning him. Very quietly going under the radar round here.

          1. Concrete
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Uncertainty about his future maybe putting people off?

            1. Concrete
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Ings to Lacazette an easy move if and when...

            2. Joey Tribbiani
                1 month, 26 days ago

                I can guarantee he stays, very happy at Arsenal from the interviews I've seen and his buddy Auba signing contract + Atletico Madrid got their striker in Suarez and Juve got Morata, 2 teams who were interested in him

          2. Reyson
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            capt jimmy anyone?

            1. Miguel Sanchez
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              High floor, low ceiling. After last week's captaincy blanks that is no bad thing.

              1. Reyson
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 26 days ago

                vs fulham.. haha am sure 2 goals at least

            2. Concrete
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Him or KdB

          3. waltzingmatildas
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 26 days ago

            Crazy to be without DCL/Richarlison right now? Would mean losing Werner, or downgrading one of mids to upgrade Adams/Wilson.
            0.4itb 1ft

            McCarthy Button
            TAA James Ayling CTaylor Mitchell
            Mane KDB Bruno Soucek Bissouma
            Werner Adams Wilson

            1. All Hail K
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              You know it doesn't matter when you transfer out Werner, he'll score a brace that week.

          4. Gatekeeper22
              1 month, 26 days ago

              McGinn second best long term 5.5 after podence?

              1. Pukki Blinders
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 26 days ago

                Nope Soucek is 1st

            • French Gooner
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Is going DCL Captain this week "Maverick" instead of KDB / Salah?

              1. waltzingmatildas
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 26 days ago

                The form he is in, who knows! But Brighton are looking good.

                1. pingissimus
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 26 days ago

                  Good in attack - but loose and error prone at the back.

              2. Camzy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 26 days ago

                Definitely maverick. I wouldn't because of the potential absences of some of his teammates.

            • cnewman7
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              Reckon this team needs a wildcard?
              Or can I just get away with a FT or maybe a -4?

              McCarthy
              Saiss Digne Justin
              Salah KDB Podence* Son*
              Werner Richarlison* Mitro

              Ryan KWP Bissouma Ferg*

              1. Concrete
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 26 days ago

                Leave the WC now....usually better to press the button on Saturday after the deadline for risers and fallers)

                Isn’t break coming up too

                I’m waiting for the data to settle and for teams to be fit and in a routine before playing mine

                1. Concrete
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 26 days ago

                  Int*

            • BHA_Seagull
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 26 days ago

              whats the news on Richarlison ?
              Front 3 of him Kane and Jimenez.
              Could siwtch to DCL but like him as differential.