Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. IRBOX ⚽
    • 3 Years
    17 days, 11 hours ago

    Fulham are rubbish. Really wish Brentford were up. Saìd Benrahma is so good and would be a joy to watch in the premier league

    1. ivantys
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        Brentford should have been up. Their useless playoff for 3-6th is nonsense.

      • Boo Ya Ka Sha
        • 5 Years
        17 days, 9 hours ago

        It is pretty sad. If only Brentford won when it mattered. Fulham got very very lucky.

      • The Ra
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        17 days, 8 hours ago

        Nonsense talk.

    2. Bleh
      • 3 Years
      17 days, 11 hours ago

      Final WC team. Any thoughts/suggestions much appreciated.

      Martinez Steer
      TAA Robbo Justin Lamptey Mitchell
      Salah KDB Trossard Klich 4.5
      Jimenez Ings DCL

      1. Easy Cheesy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        17 days, 11 hours ago

        GTG. On a WC and I wasn’t convinced on tross/ klick/ ings vs. Barnes/ foden/ brewster but good either way.
        Double liv/ kdb/ salah/ dcl for the long haul hopefully!

        1. Bleh
          • 3 Years
          17 days, 11 hours ago

          Thanks! Looking at Jimi, Klich > Bamford, Pulisic in a few gameweeks, let’s see how they get on.

      2. Nightrain_
        • 4 Years
        17 days, 11 hours ago

        Need Chelsea with Pulisic and Ziyech imminent return

        1. Bleh
          • 3 Years
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          Yep, see above comment. Will wait for Pulisic form and Jimi’s fixtures to turn before pulling the plug.

      3. sminkypinky
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        I've gone Justin and Klich -> Kwp and Podence

        Otherwise matching wc.

        Brought trossard and Lamptey on for Foden and Dunne since Dunne is pretty much dead weight now. Would've liked to keep Foden for this round and get Trossard the next but it is what it is.

        Good luck with your beast of a team mate 😉

        1. Bleh
          • 3 Years
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          Cheers, yeah it’s a toss up between KWP and Justin at the mo. I think Justin is slightly more dangerous going forward but KWP saves me 0.2, which could be crucial for future price hikes etc.

          1. sminkypinky
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            17 days, 10 hours ago

            My thoughts exactly

      4. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        17 days, 10 hours ago

        very good but Mitchell & Justin should be replaced.

        1. Bleh
          • 3 Years
          17 days, 4 hours ago

          Thanks, took the advice of Smikypinky above and switched Justin to KWP. Kept Mitchell though.

      5. Chachi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        17 days, 4 hours ago

        I WCd almost the same team but you seem to have almost 1 extra million budget than me. (James, Foden and Maupay instead of Justin/Klich/Jimenez).
        Did you take early hits in previous gameweeks?

        1. Bleh
          • 3 Years
          17 days, 4 hours ago

          Really? My team value is only 101.0

    3. Stram Dunk
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      17 days, 11 hours ago

      Lamptey or Brewster first on the bench?

      1. Rhinos
        • 7 Years
        17 days, 11 hours ago

        Brewster can't play so doesn't matter

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          17 days, 11 hours ago

          Exactly

      2. Stram Dunk
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        17 days, 11 hours ago

        Cheers

      3. Boo Ya Ka Sha
        • 5 Years
        17 days, 9 hours ago

        haha. just asked that

    4. ivantys
        17 days, 11 hours ago

        How is Son still 9.0

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          17 days, 10 hours ago

          Tonight will see a lot of price drops for popular players

      • 23bshumaker
          17 days, 11 hours ago

          Thoughts on Jimmy Dunne? Is he nailed on or is it just due to injuries in the squad?

          1. Rhinos
            • 7 Years
            17 days, 11 hours ago

            He's about as nailed as Liam Delap

            1. 23bshumaker
                17 days, 11 hours ago

                Lol okay... I thought it was odd, just checking

                1. Rhinos
                  • 7 Years
                  17 days, 11 hours ago

                  Not impossible he could keep his place whilst Mee out but far more likely Long will start. Tarkowski fit now and looks like he's staying

                  1. Amey
                    • 2 Years
                    17 days, 10 hours ago

                    Yeah ... Burnley refused a lot of bids so they seem adamant on keeping him. Makes my Taylor pick look good 🙂

                    Tark back means the defense would be solid.

            2. Nightrain_
              • 4 Years
              17 days, 11 hours ago

              He's filling Tarkowski spot for a while so maybe last 1-2 GWs

          2. RECKLESS
            • 7 Years
            17 days, 11 hours ago

            Scout Picks including Neto has made me unsure on Podence. Who is more likely to play, him or Son?

            1. Rhinos
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 11 hours ago

              eenie meenie miney mo

            2. Urchin
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 11 hours ago

              Scout picks has kind of restricted itself with so many bells and whistles. Limited budget, team restrictions and all.
              What you get in the end is not the best team tailored for the GW.
              Just my opinion

            3. FPL ElasticO
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              17 days, 11 hours ago

              I think if Podence is not playing then this will make Jimenez less appealing.
              Son will not play Mourinho is playing mind games with United....

            4. Nightrain_
              • 4 Years
              17 days, 11 hours ago

              Son will be out for a while, hamstring could take out one person for a month or two so Podence is the one likely to play

              1. Rhinos
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 11 hours ago

                if it was ever a hammy

            5. Live Lad
              • 5 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              Scount Picks have been poor this season, despite practically having a wildcard every week!

            6. Boo Ya Ka Sha
              • 5 Years
              17 days, 9 hours ago

              nobody knows. but at least there is some evidence that podence was in 1st team training this week. idk if that's the case for son.

          3. FPL ElasticO
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            17 days, 11 hours ago

            As reports suggest that Mane is COVID positive?
            Is this make Salah a better captaincy option?

            1. Rhinos
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 11 hours ago

              yes unless he's been licking Mane's face

            2. da Beeeez
              • 11 Years
              17 days, 11 hours ago

              yes. strong stats for Salah in games without Mane in last year. already a strong play, and now stronger.

            3. Nightrain_
              • 4 Years
              17 days, 11 hours ago

              Nope, last season without Martinez and solid defense, Villa only concede 2, but now with a stronger back, I think could easily end 0-0 or 1-1

              1. Amey
                • 2 Years
                17 days, 11 hours ago

                They played SHU & Fulham.

                Pool is different gravy altogether

              2. ivantys
                  17 days, 10 hours ago

                  Jota could limit his chances too since he doesn't pass like him.

              3. Bleh
                • 3 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                I’ve got my armband on Salah atm.

              4. Over Midwicket
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                I'm captaining Ings. That fixture seems prime for a hatty.

              5. FALSE PROFIT
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Better than Mane for sure (smile)

            4. davies
              • 6 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              A) KDB Cooper

              B) Sterling Taylor

              1. Rhinos
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                A on a wc B for this week

                1. davies
                  • 6 Years
                  17 days, 10 hours ago

                  Yes on wc

                  1. Rhinos
                    • 7 Years
                    17 days, 10 hours ago

                    also if you're a gambler Alioski same price as Cooper and will be playing left wing today. Cooper obviously the better long term pick though

            5. jdp219
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              Son > ... 10.5 to spend, but would be a hit a -4.

              1) Bruno - pens
              2) Barnes - funds for upgrading Davis later
              3) Hamez - no eve cover currently
              4) Foden/Mahrez

              Already have KDB, Salah, Ings, Jim.

              1. Rhinos
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Hold. Spuds have great fixtures

              2. Christina.
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Bruno

              3. sminkypinky
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Who's first on the bench?

                1. jdp219
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  17 days, 10 hours ago

                  Mitchell and Davis

              4. Over Midwicket
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Hold

            6. Rhinos
              • 7 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              I get that people don't wanna bench a 9m asset but Spuds have great fixtures incoming and Bale will start playing soon. Surprised so mant selling given he's not been ruled out

              1. Christina.
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Easy to buy back when you own Salah+KdB+Sterling

              2. Amey
                • 2 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                If anything, red arrows on FPLstats makes people feel urge to sell

              3. HMC
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                I’d be gobsmacked if he plays before IB!

              4. sminkypinky
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Bale coming in is the thing that's putting me off.

                1. sminkypinky
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  17 days, 10 hours ago

                  I exaggerate ofc but his form has been dismal of late.

                  Also I'm looking at Ings+Podence -> Brewster + Son when Sou and Wol fixs turn. Now Danny is a must and Podence could be excellent value.

                  1. Rhinos
                    • 7 Years
                    17 days, 10 hours ago

                    you can't say it's not intriguing though

                    1. sminkypinky
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 9 Years
                      17 days, 10 hours ago

                      True

            7. King Kun Ta
              • 5 Years
              17 days, 10 hours ago

              And the armband goed to....

              A Bruno
              B KDB
              C DCL
              D Salah
              E Jimi

              Ta and GL lads!

              1. HMC
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Not easy. Between Kdb and Jimmy for me, can’t decide

              2. sminkypinky
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Mine hasn't moves from B all week. Mind you if I had Raheem...

              3. da Beeeez
                • 11 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Salah (c), KDB (vc)

              4. King Kun Ta
                • 5 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Thanks for the feedback! Mostly between Salah & KDB....i like to cap a midfielder pointwise.

              5. Mambino
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 9 hours ago

                KDB for me - doesn't feel a tough choice either

            8. Tripleh123
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Team this week. Gtg?

                Martinez
                Robertson Justin Saiss
                Salah Zaha KDB Barnes
                Ings Jimenez DCL

                Steer Taylor Burke Mitchell 0.2 itb

                Advise on who to captain? Torn between Salah and Ings.

                1. Mambino
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  17 days, 9 hours ago

                  KDB for cap - there's going be lots of goals in that game

              • eboeagles
                • 3 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Headache. Already taken a hit. Take another one for -8 to get Salah or Sterling in for Mane? Too late in the week to WC. 1.7 ITB or hold

                Ryan
                TAA Justin James
                Podence KDB(c) Zaha Biss
                Ings Jimenez DCL

                Nyland Mane Mitchell Braitwaite

                1. Bobby's Teeth
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  17 days, 9 hours ago

                  I would take another hit. Bissouma would get you a 1 or 2 pointer at best.

              • Steiner
                • 8 Years
                17 days, 10 hours ago

                Midfield Madness?

                McCarthy
                Vinagre, Justin, Trent
                KDB C, J Rod, Salah, Greenwood, Bruno
                Calvert-lewin, Brewster

                Meslier, Davis, Saliba, Douglas.

              • Boo Ya Ka Sha
                • 5 Years
                17 days, 9 hours ago

                Brewster or Lamptey for the first bench spot?

                1. Boo Ya Ka Sha
                  • 5 Years
                  17 days, 9 hours ago

                  never mind

              • Boo Ya Ka Sha
                • 5 Years
                17 days, 9 hours ago

                Who else is going Salah (c)?

              • Squeazy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                17 days, 9 hours ago

                How do I get the pitch view that Fábio has in his article? With the next five fixtures listed under each player?

              • aleksios
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                17 days, 9 hours ago

                Which two?

                a) Jrod
                b) Barnes
                c) Zaha.

                Thanks.

              • BIELSA
                • 5 Years
                17 days, 9 hours ago

                Shall i save FT or take Werner out for Ings or DCL

                1. Mambino
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  17 days, 9 hours ago

                  save

                2. Bobby's Teeth
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  17 days, 9 hours ago

                  I would do Werner to Ings

                3. JimJoshBoy
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  17 days, 8 hours ago

                  I did werner to ings. Arguments for saving of course but also chase west brom and fullham

              • Bobby's Teeth
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                17 days, 9 hours ago

                Team for GW4 is locked.

                Martinez
                TAA Castagne Masuaku
                Raz KdB Barnes Neto
                DCL Jimi Ings

                A bit concerned about No Mo, but it's away and it's Aston Villa and I have a big couch to hide behind. What do you legends think?

              • Green O' The South
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                17 days, 8 hours ago

                Patience is indeed the lesson. Went tinker happy pre season removing Salah hours before kick off. Panic carded week two getting rid of Kane. Werner for a hit GW3. Result inevitably worst ever start!

              • zman575
                  17 days, 7 hours ago

                  my current wildcard team is

                  mccarthy forster
                  james justin saiss dunne mitchell
                  kdb sterling salah foden barnes
                  dcl brewster jimenez

                  cant decide between sterling and vardy especially now with maddison back.

                  i could drop sterling to vardy and save 1.5 mil to upgrade defence to lamptey and taylor etc or i coud drop sterling to zaha next week and get taa/robbo back. idealyl want one liverpool defender for gw 6.

                  if i go sterling over vardy like current above team brewster seems a much better 4.5 bench option than burke.