Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. IRBOX ⚽
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Fulham are rubbish. Really wish Brentford were up. Saìd Benrahma is so good and would be a joy to watch in the premier league

    1. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Brentford should have been up. Their useless playoff for 3-6th is nonsense.

    2. Boo Ya Ka Sha
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      It is pretty sad. If only Brentford won when it mattered. Fulham got very very lucky.

    3. The Ra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nonsense talk.

  2. Bleh
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Final WC team. Any thoughts/suggestions much appreciated.

    Martinez Steer
    TAA Robbo Justin Lamptey Mitchell
    Salah KDB Trossard Klich 4.5
    Jimenez Ings DCL

    1. Easy Cheesy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      GTG. On a WC and I wasn’t convinced on tross/ klick/ ings vs. Barnes/ foden/ brewster but good either way.
      Double liv/ kdb/ salah/ dcl for the long haul hopefully!

      1. Bleh
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks! Looking at Jimi, Klich > Bamford, Pulisic in a few gameweeks, let’s see how they get on.

    2. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Need Chelsea with Pulisic and Ziyech imminent return

      1. Bleh
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yep, see above comment. Will wait for Pulisic form and Jimi’s fixtures to turn before pulling the plug.

    3. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I've gone Justin and Klich -> Kwp and Podence

      Otherwise matching wc.

      Brought trossard and Lamptey on for Foden and Dunne since Dunne is pretty much dead weight now. Would've liked to keep Foden for this round and get Trossard the next but it is what it is.

      Good luck with your beast of a team mate 😉

      1. Bleh
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers, yeah it’s a toss up between KWP and Justin at the mo. I think Justin is slightly more dangerous going forward but KWP saves me 0.2, which could be crucial for future price hikes etc.

        1. sminkypinky
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          My thoughts exactly

    4. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      very good but Mitchell & Justin should be replaced.

      1. Bleh
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks, took the advice of Smikypinky above and switched Justin to KWP. Kept Mitchell though.

    5. Chachi
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I WCd almost the same team but you seem to have almost 1 extra million budget than me. (James, Foden and Maupay instead of Justin/Klich/Jimenez).
      Did you take early hits in previous gameweeks?

      1. Bleh
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Really? My team value is only 101.0

  3. Gunners in Haaland
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Lamptey or Brewster first on the bench?

    1. Rhinos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Brewster can't play so doesn't matter

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Exactly

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers

    3. Boo Ya Ka Sha
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      haha. just asked that

  4. ivantys
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    How is Son still 9.0

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Tonight will see a lot of price drops for popular players

  5. 23bshumaker
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on Jimmy Dunne? Is he nailed on or is it just due to injuries in the squad?

    1. Rhinos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      He's about as nailed as Liam Delap

      1. 23bshumaker
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Lol okay... I thought it was odd, just checking

        1. Rhinos
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Not impossible he could keep his place whilst Mee out but far more likely Long will start. Tarkowski fit now and looks like he's staying

          1. Amey
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Yeah ... Burnley refused a lot of bids so they seem adamant on keeping him. Makes my Taylor pick look good 🙂

            Tark back means the defense would be solid.

    2. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      He's filling Tarkowski spot for a while so maybe last 1-2 GWs

  6. HNI
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Scout Picks including Neto has made me unsure on Podence. Who is more likely to play, him or Son?

    1. Rhinos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      eenie meenie miney mo

    2. Urchin
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Scout picks has kind of restricted itself with so many bells and whistles. Limited budget, team restrictions and all.
      What you get in the end is not the best team tailored for the GW.
      Just my opinion

    3. FPL ElasticO
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think if Podence is not playing then this will make Jimenez less appealing.
      Son will not play Mourinho is playing mind games with United....

    4. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Son will be out for a while, hamstring could take out one person for a month or two so Podence is the one likely to play

      1. Rhinos
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        if it was ever a hammy

    5. Live Lad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Scount Picks have been poor this season, despite practically having a wildcard every week!

    6. Boo Ya Ka Sha
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      nobody knows. but at least there is some evidence that podence was in 1st team training this week. idk if that's the case for son.

  7. FPL ElasticO
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    As reports suggest that Mane is COVID positive?
    Is this make Salah a better captaincy option?

    1. Rhinos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yes unless he's been licking Mane's face

    2. da Beeeez
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yes. strong stats for Salah in games without Mane in last year. already a strong play, and now stronger.

    3. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nope, last season without Martinez and solid defense, Villa only concede 2, but now with a stronger back, I think could easily end 0-0 or 1-1

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        They played SHU & Fulham.

        Pool is different gravy altogether

      2. ivantys
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Jota could limit his chances too since he doesn't pass like him.

    4. Bleh
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’ve got my armband on Salah atm.

    5. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'm captaining Ings. That fixture seems prime for a hatty.

    6. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Better than Mane for sure (smile)

  8. davies
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A) KDB Cooper

    B) Sterling Taylor

    1. Rhinos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A on a wc B for this week

      1. davies
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yes on wc

        1. Rhinos
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          also if you're a gambler Alioski same price as Cooper and will be playing left wing today. Cooper obviously the better long term pick though

  9. jdp219
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Son > ... 10.5 to spend, but would be a hit a -4.

    1) Bruno - pens
    2) Barnes - funds for upgrading Davis later
    3) Hamez - no eve cover currently
    4) Foden/Mahrez

    Already have KDB, Salah, Ings, Jim.

    1. Rhinos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold. Spuds have great fixtures

    2. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bruno

    3. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Who's first on the bench?

      1. jdp219
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Mitchell and Davis

    4. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold

  10. Rhinos
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I get that people don't wanna bench a 9m asset but Spuds have great fixtures incoming and Bale will start playing soon. Surprised so mant selling given he's not been ruled out

    1. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Easy to buy back when you own Salah+KdB+Sterling

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If anything, red arrows on FPLstats makes people feel urge to sell

    3. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d be gobsmacked if he plays before IB!

    4. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bale coming in is the thing that's putting me off.

      1. sminkypinky
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I exaggerate ofc but his form has been dismal of late.

        Also I'm looking at Ings+Podence -> Brewster + Son when Sou and Wol fixs turn. Now Danny is a must and Podence could be excellent value.

        1. Rhinos
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          you can't say it's not intriguing though

          1. sminkypinky
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            True

  11. King Kun Ta
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    And the armband goed to....

    A Bruno
    B KDB
    C DCL
    D Salah
    E Jimi

    Ta and GL lads!

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not easy. Between Kdb and Jimmy for me, can’t decide

    2. sminkypinky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mine hasn't moves from B all week. Mind you if I had Raheem...

    3. da Beeeez
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Salah (c), KDB (vc)

    4. King Kun Ta
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks for the feedback! Mostly between Salah & KDB....i like to cap a midfielder pointwise.

    5. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KDB for me - doesn't feel a tough choice either

  12. Tripleh123
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Team this week. Gtg?

    Martinez
    Robertson Justin Saiss
    Salah Zaha KDB Barnes
    Ings Jimenez DCL

    Steer Taylor Burke Mitchell 0.2 itb

    Advise on who to captain? Torn between Salah and Ings.

    1. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KDB for cap - there's going be lots of goals in that game

  13. eboeagles
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Headache. Already taken a hit. Take another one for -8 to get Salah or Sterling in for Mane? Too late in the week to WC. 1.7 ITB or hold

    Ryan
    TAA Justin James
    Podence KDB(c) Zaha Biss
    Ings Jimenez DCL

    Nyland Mane Mitchell Braitwaite

    1. Bobby's Teeth
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would take another hit. Bissouma would get you a 1 or 2 pointer at best.

  14. Steiner
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Midfield Madness?

    McCarthy
    Vinagre, Justin, Trent
    KDB C, J Rod, Salah, Greenwood, Bruno
    Calvert-lewin, Brewster

    Meslier, Davis, Saliba, Douglas.

  15. Boo Ya Ka Sha
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Brewster or Lamptey for the first bench spot?

    1. Boo Ya Ka Sha
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      never mind

  16. Boo Ya Ka Sha
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who else is going Salah (c)?

  17. Squeazy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    How do I get the pitch view that Fábio has in his article? With the next five fixtures listed under each player?

  18. aleksios
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which two?

    a) Jrod
    b) Barnes
    c) Zaha.

    Thanks.

  19. Up the tics
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Shall i save FT or take Werner out for Ings or DCL

    1. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      save

    2. Bobby's Teeth
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would do Werner to Ings

    3. Quan MisTaka
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I did werner to ings. Arguments for saving of course but also chase west brom and fullham

  20. Bobby's Teeth
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Team for GW4 is locked.

    Martinez
    TAA Castagne Masuaku
    Raz KdB Barnes Neto
    DCL Jimi Ings

    A bit concerned about No Mo, but it's away and it's Aston Villa and I have a big couch to hide behind. What do you legends think?

  21. Green O' The South
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Patience is indeed the lesson. Went tinker happy pre season removing Salah hours before kick off. Panic carded week two getting rid of Kane. Werner for a hit GW3. Result inevitably worst ever start!

  22. zman575
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    my current wildcard team is

    mccarthy forster
    james justin saiss dunne mitchell
    kdb sterling salah foden barnes
    dcl brewster jimenez

    cant decide between sterling and vardy especially now with maddison back.

    i could drop sterling to vardy and save 1.5 mil to upgrade defence to lamptey and taylor etc or i coud drop sterling to zaha next week and get taa/robbo back. idealyl want one liverpool defender for gw 6.

    if i go sterling over vardy like current above team brewster seems a much better 4.5 bench option than burke.