Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £19.99. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99. A FREE trial is now available during December.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. tbhogal
    • 11 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Fellow Son owners you starting him in case he starts ?

    1. sentz05
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      No chance he’ll start

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Got in Barnes with my freebie

      1. Bagheri Arce
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        This

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Yes

  2. Babelcopter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Keep Son or Barnes in (-4)?

    1. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Keep Sonny

  3. QUEN
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Son to Jota? (Mane covid)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Sounds okay for one GW

  4. Lallanalambanana
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Should I take a hit and sell Werner for Ings/Vardy? Or, should I give the underperformer one more week?
    Son >> Barnes is almost nailed on as my ft. Had an awful wildcard last week. I don't want to panic too much as I still think the team is strong but Werner has not passed the eye test in last two games.

    1. JIMMY764
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      I'd hold Son if I owned him, wouldn't be surprised to see him start this weekend. Not a huge fan of taking hits to swap strikers tbh.

      1. Lallanalambanana
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Thanks. Just writing a question here usually helps to see things more clearer. As I was writing that I thought about keeping Son and just selling Werner for Ings. Only slight problem is my midfield would be a little weak. Apart from Salah and KdB, my other 3 are Son (25%) Pondence (75%) and Jorginho (didn't play last game). Feels like I need a nailed on starter.

        1. JIMMY764
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Hmmm yeah that’s a fair one. I guess Son or podence is your priority then. I’ve done Martial to Ings this week with my ft. I also own Podence and I’ll be holding him again this week.

          I’d deffo hold Son as well if I owned, what’s the rest of your bench like? I have Taylor Lamptey and Bissouma so I’m happy with the defenders of podence is out again.

          1. Lallanalambanana
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            3 months, 25 days ago

            Team at the moment before transfers- Ryan, Martinez -- James, Saiss, Justin, Mitchell, Dunne --Salah, KdB, Son, Pondence Jorginho -- Werner, DCL, Jiminez.

            I just feel like Son > Barnes has to be done just for some more midfield certainty. Give Werner one more game. I can always get Son back later as well.

            1. JIMMY764
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              3 months, 25 days ago

              Yeah fair one, makes sense considering you also have podence. But yeah, I’d always be weary of taking hits to swap strikers. Always has the potential to really hurt. In the short term anyway. Yeah how the armband on? I can’t decide between KDB/Salah plus Jimenez is tempting me.

              1. Lallanalambanana
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                3 months, 25 days ago

                Thanks for helping me talk it out. Looks like I'll just do the Son to Barnes.
                In exactly the same boat with the captaincy. My head says KdB, My heart says Salah, my gambling gut says Jiminez 😀
                I'll leave that decision until tomorrow, but more than likely it's KdB. Good luck with whoever you choose.

  5. JIMMY764
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Had the armband set on Salah/KDB all week, but Raúl is luring me in. Anyone else tempted?

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Not after watching their last game no

    2. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Considered him, but does he ever get more than one goal?

      Once last season if I'm right.

      Salah or KDB are much more likely to haul.

    3. Riverside Red
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 25 days ago

      I'm going for Jimmy

    4. Klopp it
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      I had his as captain all week, but changed him the day to sterling, thank sterling is guna have a Big weekend

  6. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    How realistic is the worry that the season will be shut down/postponed/null and void?

    Are people trolling or is it a serious concern?

    I mean the Premier League has done a great job in minimising the cases thus far. If you consider the number of staff, officials etc involved in these games, the cases have actually been incredibly low.

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      At rank 4.5 million one can only hope for the best...or is it worst...

      1. Scots Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        I'm around 3.5m, so feel your pain. The usual relegation candidates are currently top of most my mini leagues

    2. Bennerman
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Bobb, are you there to take this one?

  7. JJeyy
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Salah without Mane last season:

    12 v Norwich H
    13 v Bournemouth A
    14 v WestHam A
    16 v Southampton H
    3 v Nor A
    18 v Brighton A

    Auto cap?

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      In fairness, all those opponents were a bit cack.

      1. JJeyy
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Think villa are better then all those defences of late, but are they good enough to stop this trend

    2. ZeBestee
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Thats strong stats. Makes me wanna consider..

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      For me yes

    4. HonestBlatter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Auto cap he is

    5. Rhodes your boat
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Very tempting but is he a better option than kdb?

  8. how now brown cow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Trump going into hospital. Must be red flagged.

    1. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Orange flag.

  9. Dele
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Right last question and then I'm done... pick one please!

    A) Coady, Barnes, DCL

    B) Robbo, Soucek, DCL

    1. F_Ivanovic
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      B

    2. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Dcl seems a bit irrelevant.

      B

  10. RossoneriHammer
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Should I wildcard or wait?

    McCarthy Nyland
    Justin VVD TAA Doherty Walker-Peters
    KDB Fernandes Saint-Maximin Perreira Soucek
    Adams Werner Wood

  11. Sir_Dunc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Are Soucek owners happy with Soucek?

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      If they werent they might not be soucek owners.

      1. Sir_Dunc
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        True. Perhaps a better question would have been, "how do ex-Soucek owners feel?"

        1. how now brown cow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          I own him. He's looked dangerous in all the hammers games even when the team is struggling.

    2. teneighty
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      I am. 🙂

    3. PartyPooper
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      yup nice 1st bench option I think at 5.0 for the coming weeks.
      After that you can easily play him each week. I think WHU are really underestimated at the moment...

    4. Bagheri Arce
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      I wish I owned him.

      Seems a dangerous pick at £5m and West Ham look decent (i.e. better than expected)

    5. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Higher non-penalty xG than Salah this season 🙂

    6. Sir_Dunc
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Thanks all

  12. Jonnyb40
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Podence in starting 11 ?

    • Will J 256
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Son to Barnes or Mahrez? For free by the way!

      1. Bagheri Arce
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        I did Barnes as better 2 fixtures and own KdB (c) and Foden so quite heavy on City as it is.

        I would go Mahrez personally if I didn't have Foden

    • HM2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Who to bench?

      a) Lamptey
      b) Saiss
      c) C. Taylor

      1. Bagheri Arce
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        C

    • Steirish
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Is it wise to captain a Liverpool asset who's to say that salah R anyone else won't test positive tomorrow after deadline?

      1. how now brown cow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Same goes for anyone else in the country.

        Nothing to say he caught it at the club.

        1. how now brown cow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Plus you wont get a bench cameo will you.

        2. QUEN
          • 2 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          But he trains daily with the club

      2. Bagheri Arce
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        It is not a risk as he will either play or not.

        I just don't rate Salah as a captain this week. Not even my Vice

    • Slitherene
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      McCarthy ¦ 0 ITB, 1 FT
      TAA - Coady - Justin - Taylor
      KdB - Salah - Jorginho - Son*
      Richarlison - Werner*
      ¦ Mitrovic - Bissouma - Ward

      1) Werner -> Ings
      2) Werner, Son -> Maupay, Sterling
      3) Save FT?

    • Klopp it
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Is it mad for me to start brewster against arsenal, that's in the hope he gets mins, or do I take the chance and play shaw against spurs? Known he will get 90 mins

      1. Bennerman
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        For me, that is Shaw by an emphatic margin.

        1. Klopp it
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Is it mad to believe if brewster got mins against arsenal he could score? I can't see nothing but a spurs win

      2. Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Not sure a) if he is eligible (press reports were no, but FPL haven't flagged him) and b) if he will come straight in as a starter - hasn't trained with the team

        1. Klopp it
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          There act very good points thank you

      3. lilmessipran
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        I dont think he is even eligible to play this gw

      4. All Hail K
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        According to Team News Sheffield missed the paperwork deadline for Brewster to make him eligible for the Arsenal game.

    • Coys96
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Bruno & Werner > Salah & Ings (-4)

      Like this, btw I don't need to do Werner to Ings to fund Bruno to Salah, but I think it might well be worth the -4.

      Thoughts?

      1. Slitherene
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Save

      2. Goonsquad245
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        I think it’s borderline insanity, but the game is about enjoyment!

      3. HonestBlatter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Go for it.

      4. Hulk Smash
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        I prefer just Werner to Ings this week

    • redsallstars
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Mane tested positive for covid 19

      1. kamdaraji
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        imagine if it was Salah

    • sentz05
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      A Barnes
      B Mahrez
      C J Rod

      1. Bagheri Arce
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        A or B

    • McGowan
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Brewster good shout for next week and future at 4.5?

      1. QUEN
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Yes I would get him

      2. Scots Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        I think so, even just to sit on the bench as an emergency sub

    • PartyPooper
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      So which CB of the last two weeks is making way for Tarkowski at Burnley? (Long or Dunne)
      I own Dunne and am thinking of playing him against Newcastle...

    • bench boost for every gamew…
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      A world class striker is not translating into points and satsing that og is easier to predict that teans get cs than a random plater getting attacking returns is what, eh.. One set piece against and wham cs gone. One shot on target, cs gone.

      1. bench boost for every gamew…
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Feck autocorrect

    • Nightf0x
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Bruno davis -4 to barnes ings ? y or n

      1. Bagheri Arce
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Who would you play instead of Davis as I assume he is benched, so it is really a case of Bruno + X vs Barnes + Ings

        1. Nightf0x
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Taylor & justin will both play instead of 1

          1. Bagheri Arce
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            3 months, 25 days ago

            Sorry mate, that still doesn't make sense. You can only at one of them surely.

            Anyway, Bruno and Justin (for example) could easily outscore Barnes and Ings but the latter is a stronger pair for this week

    • Little Red Lacazette
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Cap on Salah or Sterling?

    • Ted Bovis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      OMG Mane!!!

    • HurriKane
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Salah scored 8 goals and 4 assists in only 6 games last season when Mané didn’t start

      Salah(C) anyone?

    • damiang2233
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Best replacement for Son?

    • cnewman7
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      What to do? Worried about the 3 flags.

      1. Could just do Richarlison to Jimi for free?
      2. Also play Ryan over McCarthy given that KWP likely to come in?

      McCarthy
      Digne Justin Saiss
      Salah KDB Son* Podence*
      Werner Richa* Mitro

      Ryan KWP Bissouma Ferg*

    • QUEN
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Is son actually out guys? We didn’t actually get any news today or did I miss it

      1. how now brown cow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Mourinho said unlikely but not ruled out.

      2. Van der Faart
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Jose said Son is optimistic about his injury because of the type of person he is. So he wont rule him out