Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Goodison Gladiators
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Such a lucky team, hate seeing this

    1. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      ?

    2. Little Red Lacazette
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Which team?

      1. Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Fabio Borge, the one in the article

  2. E25
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Which one and why for next 5-6? Have Podence.
    A) Ings
    B) Jimenez

    1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Jimenez better fixtures

    2. Sir_Dunc
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Jimenez

    3. Hulk Smash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Ings

      1. E25
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Why?

  3. Tinkermania
    • 1 Year
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Is it just me then that thinks Mane's positive makes Liverpool's task even tougher without one of their talisman's? Blinkered by last season's easy matches that Mane missed?

    1. Drip Doctor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      I've been in touch with my source and he'd like an apology from you.

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        3 months, 25 days ago

        An apology for asking for a source? It will happen all the time and has happened many times before.

        1. Drip Doctor
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          You know what you said, i'll see you in court.

  4. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Hope mane is ok.

    Does this make Salah a better captain pick ?

    Am on kdb as it stands

    Thanks

    1. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Make's Liverpool very unlikely to win.

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Very unlikely??

      2. claretparrot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Hilarious

    2. Rhodes your boat
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Struggling to make this decision myself

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        3 months, 25 days ago

        The odds for 1-1 draw have been cut.

  5. Roy Rovers
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Who gets the C?

    McCarthy
    TAA James Justin
    Bruno KDB Bissouma Soucek
    Jimmi Werner Ings

    Button Podence Taylor Mitchell

    1. Sir_Dunc
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      KDB is the safe pick

  6. Shineonme
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    So its true Mane is out the weekend. What a blow.

    1. Ted Bovis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      A blow for you or for him?

    2. kamdaraji
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      yes. does this make Salah a better or worse captain shout?

      1. Shineonme
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Better I'd say

  7. Goodison Gladiators
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Son goals were a fluke

    Double Soton defence was a massive gamble

    Justin wasnt guaranteed to start

    Hate this about fantasy football

    1. how now brown cow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      What are you on about?

      1. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Complaining about Fabio's team I think

        1. how now brown cow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          What's the complaint? That someone else is doing better than him?

          1. Stormbringer22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            3 months, 25 days ago

            Seems like it, yeah.

      2. Slitherene
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Mane's positive report maybe?

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Given that OP is an Evertonian, I doubt that he would be complaining about Mane's positive Covid test

  8. Little Red Lacazette
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    All set?

    McCarthy
    TAA Justin KWP
    Salah Sterling(C) Bruno Costa
    Werner Wilson Mitro

    Nyland Lamptey Bissouma Mitchell

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Gtg

  9. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Jota to slot straight in for Mane.

  10. Chucky
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 25 days ago

    Best 5.1 m def to get? thanks
    Saiss or James

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      James

      1. Chucky
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        cheers

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Saiss

  11. zman575
      3 months, 25 days ago

      will vinagre start this weekend guys.

      also whos a better option this week and going forwards. vardy or sterling??

      1. UshFPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        I think he'll either start or not play at all so I'm playing him

      2. Sir_Dunc
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        He is apparently set to join Olympiakos on loan

    • More Cowbell
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 25 days ago

      Best Son replacement?

      1. Little Red Lacazette
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Depends on cash on hand and your team.

      2. Shineonme
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        barnes

    • nerd_is_the_werd
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 25 days ago

      What to do with Mane?
      Obv a blow, but is it worth the -4 for another player or wait for international break for a comeback?
      Have Mitrovic 1st on bench.

      1. Fiqz Fariss
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        play Mitro

      2. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Play Mitro

      3. zman575
          3 months, 25 days ago

          play mitro. mane got covid at the best possible time. 2 weeks break is the perfect amount of time for him to recover for the merseyside derby and not risk getting injured on international duty lol

      4. JURGENAUT
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Guys, please choose one of the two:

        Team A)

        McCarthy
        TAA / Robbo / Justin / Lamptey
        Salah (C) / KDB / Zaha
        Jimenez / Ings / DCL

        B: Forster / Mitchell / Burke / 4.5

        0.2 ITB

        Team B)

        McCarthy
        Robbo / Justin / Lamptey
        Salah (C) / KDB / Zaha / Barnes
        Jimenez / Ings / DCL

        B: Forster / Soucek / Mitchell / Dallas

        0.1 ITB

        Appreciate all replies guys, thanks! 🙂

      5. Gazzz
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        If I swap TAA to Robbo I can replace a 4m Def. Who would you swap first?

        On WC

        Martinez Steer
        TAA James Lamparty Mitchell Dunne
        Salah Sterling KDB Klich Stephens
        DLC Jimenez Brewster

        1. Sun Jihai
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Dunne is done

          1. Gazzz
            • 8 Years
            3 months, 25 days ago

            Got 4.7m - KWP seems like the best option

          2. Olson
            • 6 Years
            3 months, 25 days ago

            Is this actually the case?

            1. Gazzz
              • 8 Years
              3 months, 25 days ago

              Tarkowski is back now I think

      6. Fiqz Fariss
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        will chilwell play this week? Thinking Davies > Chilwell for free

        1. how now brown cow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          I cant see why not

      7. Slitherene
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        1) Werner -> Ings
        2) Werner, Son -> Maupay, Sterling
        3) Save FT?

        1. Shineonme
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          3

      8. TeddiPonza
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Chances of Mahrez starting? Want to punt on him as Son replacements, but perhaps Barnes or JRod are more safe picks.

      9. HonestBlatter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        When was Mane last time training with the team?

      10. baines is god
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        I have 2 FT's and genuinely no idea what to do. I heard Vinagre is about to leave and probably won't play tomorrow. But he's 4.4 mil and annoyingly I don't have any money in the bank so only playing options are Mitchell, who'll lose his place to PAV after the international break and Dunne who could lose his place to Mee.
        I don't want to not use a transfer and waste one!

        Nyland McCarthy
        Robertson TAA Shaw Dier Vinagre
        Stephens Mount Salah Romeu Podence
        Vardy Ings Kane

        Other options include
        A-Shaw > Coady
        B Kane > Jimenez
        C Kane > DCL and Romeu > Barnes

        Thoughts much appreciated!!

        1. UshFPL
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Definitely do not sell Kane! Sell Shaw, Mount or Vinagre

      11. kamdaraji
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Mane has about double the ownership of Sterling!

      12. Van der Faart
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Talk me out of this -8

        Werner, Wilson, Son
        To
        Barnes, DCL, Jimenez

        1. how now brown cow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          I'm a werner seller and I'm worried he could score big this week, plus son not 100% out.

          Nice picks though.

      13. Tony Martial
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        What would be your bench order from these 3? (Podence starting.)

        Dunne
        Mitchell
        Burke

        1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Burke first

      14. Krafty Werks
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Mane > ?

        A - Salah
        B - Sterling

      15. QUEN
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        In my 5 minutes dilemma thanks to you guys and the news I have concluded news

        son will prob only be out this one week. Hold the transfer and my team value boys and girls

        If you must move for one week then Jota is your man

        Ima going to hold for IB and have two transfers

      16. tractorjess
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Midfield a bit of a mess.

        Auba Costa Mane Saka Lemina

        Already used my FT.

        So two Qs

        Saka --> a) H. Barnes or b) Zaha ?

        And Mane --> KDB or hold (considering Lemina wont play)

      17. Tcheco
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Mane to:

        A. Salah
        B. KDB
        C. Other

        My current midfield is Mane Sterling Barnes Klitch

        1. Coys96
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          A, cap Sterling

          1. Tcheco
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 25 days ago

            That's what I'm on atm. Was so chuffed about Mane being a differential 🙁

      18. Captain Vantastic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Guys is Saiss nailed on?

        1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Not sure after his last performance against WHU

      19. GloryManUnited
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        People acting like Salah is the best captain choice...

        Just sitting back with Sterling (C) locked in chuckling.

        1. Olson
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          I own sterling but wouldn't be chuckling. Remember when he burned managers week upon week last year

      20. Dele
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 25 days ago

        Is a Robbo + TAA double up looking a popular move?

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Very popular. Wish I'd done that on my WC last week

        2. how now brown cow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          Had them since the off. If I was WC now I might lose one.

          More clean sheets would be nice.

        3. drughi
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 25 days ago

          will have by gw 6