Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. anish10
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Is Dunne nailed?

    1. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Absolutely not

  2. MattysFantasyFooty
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    On wildcard which is better?

    A) Jiminez, Rodriguez, Stephens, Justin (Playing 3-4-3)
    B) Brewster, Foden, Barnes, Robertson (Playing 3-5-2)

    1. dylano21
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B

    2. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B

    3. SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B

  3. PL Ball
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Any Thoughts?

    McCarthy
    Saiss, Shaw, AA (Walker-Peters, Mitchell)
    Salah, Mahrez, Greenwood, Son (Bissouma)
    DCL, Mitro, Werner

    1FT. 1.3 ITB

    A) Mitro + Son ==> Brewster + KDB (-4)
    B) Son ==> Anyone up to 10.3
    C) Play Walker P, Save FT.

    1. dylano21
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B

    2. Seanigula
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Shaw to Castagne or Digne in there somewhere

  4. Tony Martial
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 25 days ago

    What to do???

    Martinez
    Saiss VVD Lamptey
    Salah KDB Podence Mahrez
    Kane Jimenez Wood.

    Forster,Dunne,Mitchell,Burke.

    1. Good Times
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Hold

    2. motty47
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Really good team for this week, surely no need for a xfer

  5. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    WC this sad lot or something else? Got 1.3 ITB, 0 FT

    McCarthy,Nyland
    TAA,Davies,Mitchell,Buur,Justin
    Salah,Sterling,James,Podence,Bisouma
    Werner,Jimenez,Mitro

    1. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Looks fine to me, not sure why you’d want to WC

      1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        1. I had like 30 points last GW haha kinda traumatized
        2. Don't like Davies,Mitro,Lodence injured...

        1. FourLokoLeipzig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          I’ve got Mitro (could easily score) and Davies (might play, and Mitchell’s a decent sub). Podence could do great if he starts, and he probably won’t cameo at least. Def no WC if they’re your main worries!

          1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Hm true. Don't have DCL but can't have them all right

  6. Hart-ake
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Podence owners, what are you doing?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Starting

    2. The Gambler.
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Starting

    3. Whiskerz
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Playing him

    4. Good Times
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      In the lineup, hoping for the best. Lamptey to come

    5. dshv
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Leta gooooo 12 points

  7. TomSaints
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Apologies for doubting those early tonight about mane. Thought it was rubbish and called it out, but clearly some people are in the know

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      There's just as much nonsense often 'rumored' to be fair.

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 25 days ago

        I will always ask and find reliable source. Naive to believe any post you see.

    2. UKG
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Liverpool account tweeted it??

      1. TomSaints
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Well obviously they did now! I’m talking a few hours ago / yesterday

      2. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Yes, that's when we believed it, not before.

    3. Seanigula
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Rumor now circulating that Shaqiri has dwarfism

      1. Wolves Ay We
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Not noice

      2. Bennerman
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Probably think about the sensitivities of your posts, Seanigula.

        Perhaps read up on that and other stuff your future self might mock.

        1. Seanigula
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          He doesn’t actually have it and has managed to be a professional athlete, so it will be ok

          1. Bennerman
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 25 days ago

            Oh.

            Dear.

      3. Hey_Arnold
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Haha. Be careful the left brigade have just finished filming the new Starbucks adverts and are on your 6.

    4. Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Yep. Always best to say nothing until a story is confirmed one way or the other.

    5. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      It just looked and felt legit... but it’s so hard to tell. Pleased for owners that they got confirmation at least

    6. Bennerman
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      I will say well done to Tomsaints for coming back and offering a mea culpa, something that should just be good manners but I've never seen here, well done

      1. claretparrot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        +1

  8. Boss Hogg
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    I reckon it’s Timo-time this weekend.
    Finally.

    1. The Senate
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      he can't keep on just not scoring (a formerly-scared non-owner)

    2. dshv
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Waiting for him too

    3. Seanigula
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Timo-time was last season in Fantasiche Bundesliga

  9. Mulla
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Which looks better lads ???

    A) Vardy + Neto

    B) Ings + Barnes

    Cheers

    1. Werner Bremen
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      1

      1. Werner Bremen
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Reply fail. B

    2. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B

  10. Disco Stu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Play

    A Pereira

    or

    B. Foden

    1. Mulla
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B

  11. UKG
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Best defender for 5.3?

    Saiss or James I am thinking off.

    Have TAA, Mitchell, Justin, KWP

    Thanks

    1. Tree House
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      I think Saiss

  12. TheCurseOfRaheem
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Who's the best 4.5 mid at the minute? On Wildcard and was happy with Reed but wasn't in the squad last game..

    1. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Dale Stephens 4.4?

    2. Boss Hogg
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Bissouma.
      He can kick a guy in the face whilst looking the other way. That’s got to count for something.

    3. Mulla
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Dale Stephens at Burnley is 4.4 if it's a 5th mid your after

    4. Konstaapeli
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Go with Stephens and save 0.1

    5. Sir_Dunc
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Burke

  13. Lignja
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    what to do with this team?

    McCarthy
    Taa, Vinagre, Justin
    Salah, Auba, Kdb, Son, Podence
    Mitrovic, Wilson

    Mithell, Struijk, Davis

    a. Son, Davis to Jimenez, 4.5m mid (change to 343) -4
    b. save and risk not having 11 players

  14. Oggle22
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Svae FT?
    Mccarthy
    TAA KWP Taylor
    Salah KDB Bruno Rodriguez Ceballos
    Martial Mitrovic

    Nyland Mitchell Saliba Davies

    Debating Bruno and Martial to Sterling and Ings?

    1. motty47
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Wouldn't be keen to drop bruno yet, but martial could become Dcl? Ceballos is kind of dead weight

  15. Trondero
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Saint maxim to Neto, Podence or Trossard?

    1. OneDennisBergkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      I would do Trossard

    2. enrico.palazzo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Trossssss

  16. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Who to cap Salah or Jimi and why?

    1. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Jimenez. It's Fulham.

    2. The Gambler.
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Salah if you like to be a sheep, Jimenez if you have b@lls

    3. TomSaints
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Pre mane news, there were tonnes of reasons not to (c) Salah.

      Away from home / villa improved defensive form and close games last season. I still think it’s a close game but easy double digits got Salah =[

    4. dshv
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Kdb

  17. The Gambler.
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Hate making transfers around price rises and falls.

    But I’m forced into a -4 for Son out, to avoid losing 0.2-0.3m over International break, with his replacement likely to rise.

    1. motty47
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 25 days ago

      He may be back this weekend? And certainly good chance back after int break, so you may not need to lose any money if you hold. I would right now if I had him

      1. tsm
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        mourinho didn't rule him out of sunday game with manu

    2. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Huh, who would you replace him with for a hit?! Only worth it for Salah / KDB / Sterling imo

  18. Roy Rovers
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Who gets the C?

    A - Ings
    B - Jimmi
    C - KDB

    1. Flynny
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      c

    2. Zalk
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B or C for me, might do a coin toss because I have no idea which one

    3. BrazilianGooner
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B

  19. TSN
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Zaha or barnes?

    1. SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      barnes

    2. Konstaapeli
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Zaha

    3. COLLIN QUANER
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Wilfred

    4. BrazilianGooner
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Zaha.

    5. motty47
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Barnes

  20. Flynny
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Captaincy question seems to be this.

    What is greater. Villas news found defensive resilience. Or the impact on salah of no mane

    Having had armband on kdb all week, not sure I can swap now.....

    1. Zalk
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Regarding Villa, they might still have a good defence but consider this: They've played two sides, one who can't score and one who can't defend.

      1. TomSaints
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Their record end of last season was ok too. Plus Liverpool struggled in both fixtures last season.

        Salah without mane seems to go superhuman though. Very scared not owning him

      2. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        But their defensive improvement goes back to the post lockdown games . Need to look at those games too

        1. Zalk
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          I don't know. Post lockdown Palace were atrocious and United were glorious.

    2. motty47
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Surely pool without mane are a worse team, and therefore thus negatively affects salah. Kdb has been my cap all week, and theres no need to change because city Leeds will have goals

  21. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    A. ings 4.4 def
    B. Foden Digne

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      B if you have to play both.

      1. SMOOTH
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        well for startings argument we can make the 4.4 a 4.5

    2. Tcheco
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Ings

  22. Van der Faart
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    -4

    Wilson and Werner to DCL, Jimi is a no brainer right?

    1. SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      was a better idea 0.5M ago

      1. Van der Faart
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Yeah I wish I'd done it 2 weeks ago but stubbornness killed me

    2. Epic Fail ⚽ 墅
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      I'm considering Werner (c)

  23. Obi Wan Elokobi
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    This season should just be a write off. Winter months more and more players will catch corona and it’s going to get ridiculous. Arteta alone caught it in March which pretty much forced a lockdown. What’s different now. I’m not going to go on about the disease but we either play season accepting it’s there or cancel it

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Arteta caught it when the world was in panic mode and very little was known about the disease.

      Think it'll take an extreme number of cases before the league is cancelled.

      1. kamdaraji
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        agreed

  24. Tcheco
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    A. Klitch

    B. Neto

    1. BrazilianGooner
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      A for pens

    2. motty47
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Soucek

  25. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    LiveFPL seems to be down.

    Any other sites which can give me league ownership stats?

      1. Scots Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Undying gratitude.

        1. Zalk
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          Happy to help 🙂

  26. enrico.palazzo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Is son to Bruno the move? 1.5
    ITB. Anyone else up to 10.5 that you would go for?

  27. UKG
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Is there any risk of other pool players being in contact with Mane and testing positive before the game? - might look elsewhere from Salah (c) ?

    1. COLLIN QUANER
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Probably yes

    2. Epic Fail ⚽ 墅
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Of course.

    3. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      I am sure they have all been thoroughly tested and re-tested....and re-tested.

  28. thepirates
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 25 days ago

    Castagne & Barnes or Robbo & Antonio

    1. Tcheco
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      the former

  29. MuelNado
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Played Wildcard which I'm regretting but need advice. Gone with Trossard, Townsend, Mane, De Bruyne, Fernandes - Mid

      Jiminez, Calvert Lewin, Bamford - Strikers

      Can anyone suggest a better combo for the money? I know Mane's out but that's only for one game. Son in for De Bruyne? Sterling?

      1. Zalk
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Looks like a good squad to me, I wouldn't change anything.

        1. kamdaraji
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 25 days ago

          when did u play the wildcard? last week?

      2. Hey_Arnold
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 25 days ago

        Salah over Mane. For obvious reasons if only one game. Rest os fine.

    • g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 25 days ago

      Thoughts?

      A Son > Mahrez
      B Delap > Brewster

      Martinez
      Robbo, Saiss, James,
      KDB, Sterling, Podence, Zaha, Son
      DCL, Jimenez,

      Steer, Lamptey, Mitchell, Delap

      .7