Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bobby_Baggio
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Which do you prefer to fill the gaps please?

    McCarthy
    Davies - Justin - _______
    Salah - Podence - KDB - Hamez
    Jimi - Ings - _______

    Lewis - Johnson - Stephens

    A) TAA + Mitro
    B) Saiss + Vardy

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A

    2. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      B, just because fulham are beyond useless

  2. enrico.palazzo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    A)!Son > Mahrez
    B) Son > Bruno

    1.5 iTB. For free

    Thanks

    1. All Hail K
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A . Just did that myself.

      1. enrico.palazzo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Thanks - if you could afford B though would have you done that?

        1. All Hail K
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Not a fan of ManU form so far. Bruno got lucky last game.

          1. Zim0
            • 2 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            And he'll get lucky 20 more times 🙂

  3. MattysFantasyFooty
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Which one?

    Barnes or Rodriguez

    1. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Have DCL*

    2. enrico.palazzo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Barnes but I don’t like either

      1. MattysFantasyFooty
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        How come? Who are you looking at in that bracket?

        1. enrico.palazzo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Probably the best for that price bracket if that’s were you’re set

    3. TheCurseOfRaheem
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I like Barnes for the next few. Both good options though. Carlo's comments about Rodriguez' fitness after the international break is a worry though.

      1. Zim0
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        What's wrong with his fitness?

        1. MattysFantasyFooty
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Think he is coming back late as the colombia game is closer to everton's next fixture

          1. Zim0
            • 2 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Oh just for the liverpool match? That's fine

    4. Zim0
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I'm getting barnes next week myself (maybe greenwood if united dont sign anyone).

  4. Mr. O'Connell
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Own Son and Podence (Saiss and Foden too - not nailed).

    My bench is Brewster, Dunne and Mitchell.

    I probably need to transfer Son out, right?

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Just noone I want long term (except Soucek).

      1. Abaddon
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Then don’t transfer him out

  5. Stand By Mee
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Bench order right?
    1 - Ayling MCI
    2 - Bissouma eve
    3 - Mitchell che

    1. FULLSERVICECOVER
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Got same bench. Had Mitchell swapped with ayling

    2. Mr. O'Connell
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Think so yeah

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      231

  6. Sloane426
    • 1 Year
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Start Taylor or ASM?

  7. tsm
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Def Q to play this week, have mcarthy in goal

    1. jwp(WBA)
    2. mitchel(che)

    1. tsm
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      typo kwp(WBA)

    2. TheCurseOfRaheem
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      KWP has the better game and more attacking threat. Would go with him no doubt.

      1. tsm
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        cool ta!

  8. FULLSERVICECOVER
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Money no object,midfielders of choice this week excluding big 3 of salah kdb sterling?

    1. Stand By Mee
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Auba against SHU at home. Bt so hard to fit in.

    2. TheCurseOfRaheem
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I like:

      Auba, Barnes, Pereira

    3. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Auba

  9. More Cowbell
    • 11 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Why did Vardy not make the Scout Picks?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Won't get 2 pens every game

    2. TheCurseOfRaheem
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Must be just down to three other cheaper options having a good fixture too.

    3. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      48 years old

    4. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Awful player and awful pick. The casuals will get caught out soon

  10. Jonny HOW SON?
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    I should get rid of Bavies right?

    1. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      yes

    2. Epic ⚽ 墅
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I'm not.

    3. Bobby_Baggio
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Looking at same. Would be for -4 tho

    4. Jonny HOW SON?
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Thinking of Saiss as replacement

    5. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Yes

    6. TheCurseOfRaheem
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      If you're relying on him then yeah

  11. TeddiPonza
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Lamptey and Burke good enough bench cover for Son and Podence? Considering whether to switch Son to Mahrez/Barnes or save transfer..

    1. COLLIN QUEEFER
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I'd save the transfer

  12. PL Ball
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Mitro ==> Jimenez/Vardy for -4

    Yes or No?

    1. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Depends on the other move really. Defo would be open to it though

    2. TSN
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Vardy yes

  13. damiang2233
    • 11 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Son & Werner out! KDB & DCL in??

    1. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Looks decent

    2. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      No brainer

    3. mrelpea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Hell yeah!

  14. Abaddon
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Evening

    Werner to...
    A) Jimenez
    B) DCL
    C) Keep

    Already have Ings

    1. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Both are good long term, but this week Jimi

    2. COLLIN QUEEFER
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      C but if you do decide to make the transfer A

      1. Abaddon
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Yeah. Sure Werner could score. But suddenly he is a negative oop. And not on penalties.

    3. pitstop1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      C

    4. mrelpea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Jimenez. Those wolves fixtures for next 4 gam weeks are great

  15. Pépé Pig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Best option?

    A) Son -> HBarnes (-4) allowing me to do Vinagre -> Robbo next week (no Pool def atm)

    B) Keep Son, and play Vinagre (and hope Marcal is still injured)

  16. RossoneriHammer
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Wildcard or wait?

    McCarthy Nyland
    Justin VVD TAA Doherty Walker-Peters
    KDB Fernandes Saint-Maximin Perreira Soucek
    Adams Werner Wood

    1. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Wait a week

  17. The Train Driver
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    These no Mane news makes me consider Salah C instead of KDB...

    1. Tony Martial
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Yep same

    2. COLLIN QUEEFER
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I'd keep in on KDB

      1. The Train Driver
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Probably will but Salah is tempting...

  18. Tony Martial
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Kane ➡️ Ings!?

    1. TSN
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      No

    2. TheCurseOfRaheem
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Think you need to look at it over the next few and look at what the funds are bringing in,

      Ings has the better game this week but Kane has West Ham at home next week and a couple of good games after that.

    3. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Depends what the 2m does.

  19. TSN
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Thoughts Please

    Martinez (meslier)
    Digne - justin - TAA - ayling (dunne)
    Salah - hamez - zaha (Harrison, bissouma)
    Jimenez(C) - Vardy - DCL

    GTG?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Prefer to see a second big hitter in midfield

  20. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Do you guys think Mahrez will start?

    1. baines is god
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      a lot of people on here don't, but my gut instinct is he will. Torres still on bench

    2. COLLIN QUEEFER
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Yeah

      1. kamdaraji
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        yes

        1. Will J 256
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Thanks very much!

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Yes

    4. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Walker Dias Laporte Mendy

      Rodri Fernandinho

      De Bruyne

      Bernado Sterling Torres

      1. kamdaraji
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        no way

    5. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Increasingly reliable

  21. baines is god
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Lamptey, Justin or Coady

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Think u would want to play Justin and coady if possible? Lamptey can be benched..

      1. baines is god
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        i meant to transfer in

        1. FPL_Motty
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Coady in that case, or saiss. Justin may lose place in a couple gws - lamptey also great but defensive fixtures not the best right now

  22. Catastrophe
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Bench order right chaps?

    Bissouma (eve)
    Mitchell (che)
    Brewster (ars)

    Cheers.

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Looks good

  23. osceola31909
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Sorry if already asked, but I just logged on. Is Mane the only Liverpool player out due to Covid?

    1. The Train Driver
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Only news about him so far...

    2. Sir_Dunc
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      and Thiago too

    3. Sloane426
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Thiago also

    4. FantasyHero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Believe they said a few other players as well but havent named other than the 2. Salah is very likely not one who has to isolate tho.

  24. The Mandalorian
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Liverpool lose two big players to Covid. Can't think of any other clubs that have lost key players.

    1. El Fenomeno R9
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Depth most important this season

    2. Epic ⚽ 墅
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Liverpool have only lost 1 key player.

    3. Bennerman
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Point being?

  25. Sloane426
    • 1 Year
    3 months, 14 days ago

    ASM still injured?

    1. TheCurseOfRaheem
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Bruce said he's fine

  26. El Fenomeno R9
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Who scores more without (C) when all healthy?

    A) KDB + Foden

    B) Son + Pulisic

    1. COLLIN QUEEFER
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Probably B

    2. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      B

    3. TheCurseOfRaheem
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Over how many weeks?

      Think Foden will get rotated once players start coming back so B for me.

      1. El Fenomeno R9
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Long term,want to do KDB + Foden > Son + Pulisic after IB

        1. FPL_Motty
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Why would you want Kdb out at any stage long term? He's never leaving my team, learnt that lesson the hard way last year

    4. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A. Foden to get rotated but Pulisic to get injured again

      1. El Fenomeno R9
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Yeah thats the worry,or he will get reduced minutes.
        Maybe Havertz if he show more

    5. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      B

  27. waldo666
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    1 FT and 1.5 ITB, thoughts appreciated.

    Ryan
    TAA Vinagre Lascelles
    Salah KDB Bruno JWP
    Jimenez Mitrovic Wilson

    (Nyland Bissouma Mitchell Douglas)

    A) Mitrovic to DCL
    B) Sort Douglas
    C) Something else
    D) Save

  28. boroie
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Son to ....?

    First player to 3 votes wins...

    1. osceola31909
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Barnes

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Salah

    3. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Mahrez

    4. COLLIN QUEEFER
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Son

    5. The Littlest Robbo
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Son

    6. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Bogle

    7. kamdaraji
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Mahrez

    8. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Xhaka

    9. Origi-nal
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Mane

  29. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    TAA confirmed no covid?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      No players are confirmed no covid that I'm aware of

  30. Fero1905
    • 1 Year
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Martinez
    TAA Saiss KWP
    Salah KDB Barnes Zaha
    Jimenez DCL Mitrovic

    Steer Lamptey Dunne Anguissa

    2.1 ITB

    I Plan brewster for Mitrovic after this GW and than barnes or Zaha to Bruno.

    Any better ideas6?