Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. JURGENAUT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    3 months, 14 days ago

    A) TAA | Burke | 4.5 mid
    Or
    B) Dallas | Barnes | Soucek

    1. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      TAA/barnes/soucek and fiddle elsewhere

      1. JURGENAUT
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        3 months, 14 days ago

        I've tried. Has to be one of those 2 options, I assume B?

        1. The Knights Template
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Yes

    2. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Better 🙂

      1. JURGENAUT
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Aha thanks 🙂

  2. JJeyy
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Werner needs to deliver tomorrow to stop this imminent fall

    1. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Even if he does, grossly overpriced. Ings and Jimmy will match him over the season and you’ll save £1m

      1. MattysFantasyFooty
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        This especially when he's out on the left wing effectively even less output from over there as well

    2. The Mandalorian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      The team doesn't look set up for him to succeed right now hence I sold

  3. _Ninja_
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    1.4m ITB. Son -> Barnes -4 yay or nay? Would prob bring Son back for Foden/Podence after IB.

    Martinez
    Robbo Saiss RJames
    Salah KDB Podence Foden Son
    DCL Jimenez

    Forster Lamptey Mitchell Brewster

    1. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Nah

  4. JONALDINHO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Mane to Sterling(-4)?

    1. SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      yes, sterling (C) better

      1. JONALDINHO
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Do I captain salah or sterling ?

    2. _Ninja_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Yeah i would

    3. cutch
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Yes if captain

    4. Deulo10
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Yes.

    5. RUUD!
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Not for me

      1. RUUD!
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Not seen the news, apologies

    6. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Yes and Captain too

  5. CHARLIE HULL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Best 4.5m midfielder?

    1. The Littlest Robbo
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Stephens at 4.4

    2. cutch
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I've got Anguissa

  6. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    A. ings lamptey (robinson stephens on bench)
    B. Foden Digne (lamptey brewster on bench)

    1. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A

    2. Deulo10
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A

  7. Dynamic Duos
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Ashley Barnes not nailed at Burnley anymore?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Didnt know he even existed!

  8. Ibralicious
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Salah (C) for sure now with the Mané news? The focal point of Pool attack.

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Firmino?

    2. cutch
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Not necessarily. There are a lot of good options this Gw. Just choose him if you feel like it.

    3. Deulo10
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Great option, but I still think KDB is the better choice...hope I'm not wrong..

  9. Deulo10
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Son and Werner --> Sterling and Ings (-4)?

    1. Ibralicious
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Don't remove Wernet now. Might as well keep for tomorrow since you've sustained one price drop already

  10. RUUD!
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    I never like taking hits never mind on a defender but is Doherty to Robbo worth -4? Have TAA

    1. Ibralicious
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Not if you have Taa it is not. Save the -4, Doherty might get an assist or two and prove you wrong

    2. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Considering the same, but Doherty fixtures are decent, and he’s actually been getting in really good positions. Looks like he’ll play his favoured RWB too, with Reguilon at LWB.
      Think he’ll start ticking soon.

  11. Ibralicious
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Is this bench order correct?

    (Mitchell - Bissouma - Davies)

    I know Davies is 5.0 but with 3 blanks in a row against easy opponents, there is nothing we can really expect against United from him)

    Cheers!

    1. Dele
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Got a feeling Reguilon may start on Sunday!

      1. Ibralicious
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        In place of Davies?

        1. Dele
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Yeah! Davies played on Thursday night, and Reguilon was pretty impressive against Chelsea.

      2. Ibralicious
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        I thought Davies is a CB, with Reguilon on the LWB

      3. Van der Faart
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Think so too.

  12. Dele
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Can I lock in and go to sleep... G2G?

    Martinez,
    TAA, Robbo, Lamptey
    Salah, KDB(c), Hames, Podence, Soucek
    Kane, DCL

    Peacock, Brewster, Ayling, Mitchell

    1. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Sweet dreams, Sir Dele.

    2. Kitsune
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Good morning from Japan! Nice team.

    3. Ibralicious
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Nice team GL

  13. An Geafar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Hi lads,

    A. Foden and brewster

    Or

    B. Burke and maupay

    Thanks in advance

    1. Dele
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A

      1. An Geafar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Cheers

    2. Garam MOSALAH
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A

  14. OleBall
      3 months, 14 days ago

      https://www.vbet.co.uk/pre-match#/Soccer/England/34094/17014594

      Offering odds on fantasy points match ups

    • Garam MOSALAH
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      What will you do ?

      A) Son > Rashford
      B) Son + Werner > Bruno + DCL (-4)
      C) Son + Mitro > Barnes + DCL (-4)

      1. The Knights Template
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Do you honesy think a hit is necessary here?

      2. Drizz ✅
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        B

      3. Kitsune
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        C

    • Noah’s Ark
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Liverpool to struggle this week. 1-0 win

      1. kamdaraji
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Captain TAA?

        1. HMC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          No way sans Mane

      2. Drizz ✅
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Salah VC then?

    • ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Bench 1:
      Bruno vs Spurs
      Foden & KDB vs Leeds
      JWP & Adams vs WBA
      Jimi vs Fulham
      DCL vs Brighton
      Zaha vs Chelsea

      At the moment I'm benching Bruno just because I think Mourinho will play a tight game and could easily be nil-nil.

      1. Dreaming of glory
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Zaha, jwp then foden.

        If ur gonna bench bruno best to just sell him otherwise u arent playing the game right

        1. ViperStripes
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Woudl play Bruno every week, but this week eveyrone else has better fixtures and most are on form & penalties too.

      2. Mauricios Cappuccino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Clear JWP for me. Why is Jimi, DCL, KDB even on the list?

        1. ViperStripes
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          On the list, because when you give only a select few players, people ask "isn't there anyone else you can bench" so gave full attack force.

          1. Mauricios Cappuccino
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Fair enough. I see the thought process with Bruno but penalties swing it.

        2. ViperStripes
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          JWP has better stats than several of the others and play WBA this week.

      3. Kitsune
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Bench JWP, Adams or Foden. Could be a tight game as you predict but with Bruno scoring a penalty to make it 1-0 in the 90th minute, taking the 3 bonus points. Bruno is very important to that team. Zaha is too and Chelsea look error prone in defense.

      4. Jimbo-Jones
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        JWP / Adams for me.
        I know it’s West Brom but you’ll kick yourself if you don’t bench your cheapest players in this situation.

    • boroie
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A - Son to Havertz
      B - Davies to James

      1. ViperStripes
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        B

    • Feed tha Sheep
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Foden or Mahrez to transfer in?

      1. ViperStripes
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Foden - cheaper and allows more balanced team

    • Hryszko
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Who is my best captain choice this week out of this lot?

      1. Jimmy
      2. DCL
      3. Ings
      4. KDB
      5. Salah

      1. The Knights Template
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        4

      2. Dynamic Duos
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        5

      3. ViperStripes
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Captain Poll says KDB - are 3000+ votes not enough for you and you need just one more?

        1. Ibralicious
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Captain poll was before Mane news

          1. ViperStripes
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            He hasn't listed Mane and KDB is top, so you think all those KDB voters woudl have voted differently?

      4. Drizz ✅
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        1

    • Whats the Mata?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Which combo does well in the coming weeks? (Have Semedo and no Pool defense)

      A. Harvey Barnes + Robertson
      Or
      B. Son + Saiss

      Cheers.

      1. The Knights Template
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        A

      2. Tcheco
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        A

    • Nightf0x
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      davis bruno -4 to ings barnes, bench taylor/justin ?
      Or
      Roll ft, start taylor justi

      1. Drizz ✅
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Roll

      2. The Senate
        • 2 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Start Bruno and Justin, bench Bavies

    • SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      A. digne soucek
      b. saiss trossard

      1. Drizz ✅
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        A

    • Tony Martial
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Now I’m stuck..

      (C)?

      KDB
      Salah
      Jimenez

      1. Drizz ✅
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        C

      2. dshv
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Kdb

      3. Dynamic Duos
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Salah

      4. ViperStripes
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        See my post above about captains

    • zman575
        3 months, 14 days ago

        question 1 - sterling or vardy

        question 2 captain sterling or kdb

        1. Drizz ✅
          • 9 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Sterling, KDB

        2. ViperStripes
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          See above re captains

          1. zman575
              3 months, 14 days ago

              i think your point about kdb is probably because most people dont own both. not many own sterling so will instantly go kdb. ive got to choose between kdb sterling and jimenez lol

        3. Muscout
          • 1 Year
          3 months, 14 days ago

          McCarthy
          TAA, Doherty, Vinagre
          Salah (c), KDB, Son, ASM
          Werner, DCL, Mitro

          Steer, Bissouma, Mitchell, Buur

          0.4 itb 1 free transfer, Son to who? May WC next week

          1. Drizz ✅
            • 9 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Son to Traore

          2. The Knights Template
            • 7 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Arise, Sir Muscout!

        4. yiidddoo
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          any thoughts on my WC team...

          Mccarthy

          Vinagre Justin Digne
          Periera Salah Sterling Traore
          Vardy Ings Jiminez

          any thoughts appreciated

          1. Mr. O'Connell
            • 8 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Vinagre about to be sold
            Justin may not be a long term pick
            Pool defender?

        5. Werner Bros
          • 5 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          GTG? Already took a -4

          McCarthy
          TAA Justin Taylor Davies
          (c)KDB Salah Zaha Podence
          Jimi Werner

          Nyland Mitchell Bissouma Davis

        6. MASTER ROSHI
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Have Son and Podence in starting 11, Bench is Taylor,Lascelles,Bissouma - struggling to not take Son out for Barnes but it does feel like it might be a wasted transfer if Son only misses one gw, would you...

          A) Son > Barnes
          B) Let Taylor/Lascelles come off the bench and keep Sonny

          1. Drizz ✅
            • 9 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            B

          2. Tcheco
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            A

            You'll want Barnes for GW5 as well so it's not that much of a waste

          3. Jimbo-Jones
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            B. He might play, and you might want him back for those fixtures after IB.

        7. Jimbo-Jones
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Start Doherty (mun) or Soucek (lei)?

          1. Drizz ✅
            • 9 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Sou

          2. The Knights Template
            • 7 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Soucek