Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. nerd_is_the_werd
    • 1 Year
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Mane + Mitrovic --> Vardy + Barnes?

    Also considering fixtures and potential price rises/falls.
    This would be for a -8.

    1. nerd_is_the_werd
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Just realised I cannot make this move as there are already 2 Leicester players!!

    2. Pariße
      • 5 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      And no. Mane’s a wonderful pick

      1. Pariße
        • 5 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        lol I was actually serious, ignore

    3. D.Glynn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 17 hours ago

      Zaha?

  2. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
    • 3 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    McCarthy
    TAA - James - Lewis - Justin
    Salah - Sterling (C) - Barnes - Podence
    Ings - Jimenez
    Nyland - Brewster - Soucek - Ayling
    G2G?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Arise, Sir Firminoisbetterthanyou!

  3. Noah’s Ark
    • 7 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Thoughts on my wc team?

    Martinez
    Trent, Robertson, Castagne
    Salah, Kdb, Barnes, Trossard, Pereira
    Ings, Dcl

    Forster, Brewster, Ferguson, Dunne

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Brave . . I nearly did it today but I'm holding till after the transfer window and IB. . . .Robertson without Mane is a concern.

      1. Noah’s Ark
        • 7 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        Mane will be back for the next game though. Trying to look past one week on my wildcard.

        1. Bushwhacker
          • 1 Year
          21 days, 17 hours ago

          That's why I'm waiting for the transfer window to close and more to be known. . . even if it costs me this week.

    2. LSK
      • 2 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Good long term, but might miss out only having 1 City player this week.

      1. Noah’s Ark
        • 7 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        Yeah this week I probably will. No wolves against Fulham either. Will surely be an average week not having players from those teams but looking past the one week I suppose.

    3. McGurn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Good to see another Trent and Robbo combo. So tempted to ditch one but want to hold my nerve as both are gold long term

      1. Noah’s Ark
        • 7 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        Thanks McGurn. Good luck.

  4. barcaa7
    • 2 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Bottomed

    Son and 4.5 striker to .....................

    a-Barnes and DCL

    b-Trossard and Jimenez

    Thanks

    1. FPLSafety
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      A

  5. Sterling Archer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Hoping podence gets rushed in after the stuffing they got

    1. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      I reckon he will

  6. DycheDycheBaby
    • 5 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    I have exact funds to do this for -4, Son and 4.5 striker --> Barnes, Ings.

    Yay or nay?

    My other 2 strikers are DCL and Werner.

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      DCL, Werner and Brewster is a nice front line.

    2. Rhinos
      • 7 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      love the way you say 4.5 striker as though there's more than one option

    3. LSK
      • 2 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      who doesn’t play now that you’ve switched out a non-player forward for a playing one?

      But good moves in general

      1. DycheDycheBaby
        • 5 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        Soucek or Podence.

    4. DycheDycheBaby
      • 5 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      When I say 4.5 striker I obviously mean fodder (aka Davis for Aston Villa). Cheers

      1. Bushwhacker
        • 1 Year
        21 days, 17 hours ago

        Brewster isn't fodder ; he's potential.

  7. RubeRx
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    (A) Salah
    (B) Sterling

    Best Mane replacement?

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      KDB? Salah if so.

      1. McGurn
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        Yeah KDB (if not already owned) more reliable, the other more explosive if you like the ups and downs

    2. Rhinos
      • 7 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      whichever one you're captaining

  8. TSN
    • 3 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    bottomed

    Martinez (meslier)
    Digne - justin - TAA - ayling - dunne
    Salah - hamez (son, harrison, bissouma)
    Jimenez - Vardy - Wilson

    0.9 itb, 1 FT

    A. Keep it, save FT
    B. Son + wilson --> DCL + Zaha
    C. Son + wilson --> Kane + 5.8 mid
    D. Son + wilson --> KDB + 4.5 forward

    Thanks!

    1. barcaa7
      • 2 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      b with Barnes

  9. Gudjohnsen
    • 3 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    KDB or Salah captain?

    1. All about the galacticos
      • 6 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      kdb

    2. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      I'm swaying towards KDB as should be the more open game...but see below, struggling also

    3. The Dance
      • 9 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Been on KDB all week, now going with Salah, hiw he benefits from no Mane is inbelievably good.

      1. The Dance
        • 9 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        unbelievably*

      2. All about the galacticos
        • 6 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        i went the other way, as liverpool are less effective without mane

        1. The Dance
          • 9 Years
          21 days, 18 hours ago

          Really? I 've always noticed Pool being better with just Salah and no Mane?

          1. All about the galacticos
            • 6 Years
            21 days, 18 hours ago

            If either mane or salah out, the team as whole struggle more

            1. The Dance
              • 9 Years
              21 days, 17 hours ago

              not sure i agree there bud but different opinions 🙂

    4. HD7
      • 3 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Salah for me

  10. Kay317
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Bench one:
    A) Pereira
    B) Foden
    C) Podence

    Cap one:
    1) Salah
    2) KDB
    3) Calvert

    1. FPLSafety
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      A1

      1. Kay317
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        Cheers

  11. Bergkamps second touch
    • 1 Year
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Anyone see Semedo's performance for Wolves on his debut? Worth getting in? Got money for him or Coady

    1. Rhinos
      • 7 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      can't imagine he was amazing

    2. HD7
      • 3 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      I would also like to hear opinions about Semedo:)

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      2G, 3A in 80 appearances for Barca doesn't appeal

    4. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 16 hours ago

      He was awful. As a defender.

  12. The Dance
    • 9 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Well, this is me for a -4. Looking smooth here guys?

    Martinez
    Robertson - Saiss - James
    Trossard - Foden - Salah (c) - KDB (vc) - Fernandez
    DCL - Jiminez
    ____________________________________
    Forster: Dunne: brewster: Mitchell

    Chers fellas & good luck! Lets turn this dreadful season around!

    1. HD7
      • 3 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Yep

      1. The Dance
        • 9 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        Cheers bud! Good luck this gw

  13. wilson007
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Am I crazy or?

    McCarthy
    TAA Robbo VVD
    KDB Son Foden Zaha Barnes
    Jimi DCL

    Steer Taylor Brewster Mitchell

    1. wilson007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      This is my WC thoughts for next gw btw..

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 16 hours ago

      Crazy. Liverpool will not keep clean sheets this year, very few people will.

  14. Noah’s Ark
    • 7 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Amartey @4m played 90mins last game against Man City for Leicester. Who’s spot was he covering?

    1. Hakim Ziyech
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Just Tactical. Change of formation

      1. Noah’s Ark
        • 7 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        He could be my 4m def of choice if that’s the case. Dunne is going to have lost his spot to Tark and Mitchell will lose his spot also.

        1. Hakim Ziyech
          • 1 Year
          21 days, 18 hours ago

          Fair enough but Amartey isn’t nailed too. Hard to find a nailed 4m defender at the moment. Maybe Douglas might come good at some point

          1. Noah’s Ark
            • 7 Years
            21 days, 18 hours ago

            I believe he played in midfield though v city no? So if he plays he is potentially OOP or am I incorrectly saying that?

            1. Skonto Rigga
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 3 Years
              21 days, 17 hours ago

              Nah he was brought in as a third centre-half alongside Soyuncu and Evans, purely a change of system because of the fixture. Even if they do revisit that formation from time to time, you'd think there'd be little chance of him featuring in the future with Fofana brought in.

              1. Noah’s Ark
                • 7 Years
                21 days, 8 hours ago

                Thanks Skonto

  15. HD7
    • 3 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    WC team:

    Mccarthy
    TAA Semedo - -
    Salah KDB Zaha
    Jimi DCL -

    Button Mendy Mitchell Stephens


    A)Justin Dunne Vardy

    + Vardy
    - Dunne and even Justin are nailed in the long term

    B)Castagne Taylor Ings

    + Better balance in the team
    - Vardy is sacrificed

  16. Bleh
    • 3 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Best combo here on WC?

    Martinez Steer
    TAA Lamptey Mitchell XXX XXX
    Salah KDB Trossard 4.5 XXX
    DCL Ings XXX

    A. Robbo, Justin, Klich, Jimenez
    B. Castagne, James, Bruno, Brewster

    1. HD7
      • 3 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Tricky. Maybe A shorterm but B longterm

  17. LSK
    • 2 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Son to
    A) Rashford
    B) Greenwood
    C) Barnes

    1. The Dance
      • 9 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      From those options right now, Barnes. Could give Greenwood a chance though if you fel maverick enough.

      1. LSK
        • 2 Years
        21 days, 17 hours ago

        Thanks. Feel like both Utd assets will be great value as midfielders

  18. Pariße
    • 5 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Captain:
    A) Aubameyang (SHU) SPG: 1.3 CC: 1.3
    B) Salah (avl) SPG: 5.7 CC: 3.7 (shots per game and chances created)

    Obvious on paper but a couple of arguments go against it: first the sample is very small. Aubameyang had these (a bit better) stats last year and still managed to score more (indicating, by my theory, he is the best finisher in the league). The last argument is about the opponents, one is playing home one away and from what we have until now Villa ranks very high in defensive stats, and Sheffield ranks in the bottom.

    Anything to discuss or should I refer myself to the captain’s poll?

  19. Lignja
    • 3 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Son and 4.5m to Jimenez and 4.5m for hit? yes or no

    McCarthy
    Taa, Vinagre, Justin
    Salah, Auba, Kdb, Son, Podence
    Mitrovic, Wilson

    Mithell, Struijk, Davis

  20. Alex1995
    • 4 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    This lot g2g?

    McCarthy
    TAA Saiss KWP
    KDB(c) Salah Bruno Podence
    Ings DCL Mitro

    Steer, B Davies, Bissouma, Ferguson

    1. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Arise, Sir Alex1995!

  21. Joyce1998
    • 4 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    g2g??
    2 FT
    0.0 itb

    Mccarthy
    Taa, Saiss, Justin
    Salah, Kdb, Bruno, Klich
    Jimmy(c), DCL, Cwilson

    Steer, Alzate, Taylor, Mitchell

  22. The Littlest Robbo
    • 5 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Correct order?

    Starter - Taylor (new)
    Bench 1 - Lamptey (eve)
    Bench 2 - Mitchell (Che)

    1. Deeney-is-a-god
      • 4 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Have the same order

    2. Pariße
      • 5 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      yup

  23. Niho992
    • 2 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Changed C from KdB to Salah after Mane news. Am I overthinking?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 6 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

    2. El Presidente
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Probs

  24. Deeney-is-a-god
    • 4 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Son, greenwood-> fernandes, trossard (-4)?

    Think it will be worth it long term.

    1. The Dance
      • 9 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      i just brouht the same players in a few moments ago. Dunno if teh greenwod to fernandes move is a bit unnecessary though.

      1. Deeney-is-a-god
        • 4 Years
        21 days, 18 hours ago

        Yeah wonderingnif its just better to wait a GW. Did the son to trossard move now, and might just leave it at that

        1. The Dance
          • 9 Years
          21 days, 17 hours ago

          Yeh possibly, however fernandez is on set pieces, penalties as ya know. Trossard is a briliant acquisition to bring in this GW.

  25. Muscout
    • 1 Year
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Son to Mahrez as a 1 week punt before wildcarding?

    Rest of MF is Salah, KDB, ASM

  26. kamdaraji
    • 11 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Firmino better without Mane?

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      21 days, 16 hours ago

      No different.

  27. Ray In Bruges.
    • 7 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Start 2:

    KWP
    Justin
    Vinagre
    Mitchell

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      AB

  28. Somar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    2 Questions

    1)How long until price changes happen?

    2) Is Semedo nailed on?

    1. Noah’s Ark
      • 7 Years
      21 days, 18 hours ago

      Around 2 hours and yes

  29. Crispo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Can anyone tell me how to display the info below the players names as in the formation picture at the top of this article please?

  30. Noah’s Ark
    • 7 Years
    21 days, 18 hours ago

    Ings or Jimenez on WC? Only one of them I can’t go both.