Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Is this GTG for GW4?

    Martinez
    Robertson, Saiss, James
    Salah, KDB, Mahrez, Zaha, Podence
    Calvert-Lewin, Jimenez

    Forster, Lamptey, Mitchell, Brewster

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Yep

      1. Will J 256
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Thanks

    2. Stram Dunk
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I like it! Why Zaha?

      1. Will J 256
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Just for the brilliant run of fixtures after Chelsea! Hoping he gets something from this game, but more focused on long term with him!

        1. Stram Dunk
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Good option long-term!

  2. The Pep Revolution
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    What would you do with this team?

    Steer McCarthy
    Saliba Targett Mitchell Justin Egan
    KDB Son Fernandes Havertz Stephens
    Richarlison Ings Wilson

    Im looking at it and in some ways I think a wildcard might be needed to fix the defence as I have no bench.
    Im also thinking of maybe just doing Son and Havertz to Salah and Barnes for a 4 point hit.

    Can you please advise on what I should do? Thanks.

    1. kempc23
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I would wildcard, the defence is a mess

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      WC

    3. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      WC - lots of upgrades available.

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      WC.

    5. The Pep Revolution
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Thanks all

  3. kempc23
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Martinez Steer
    Robbo Digne Lamptey Cooper Ferguson
    Salah KDB Barnes Zaha Foden
    Ings DCL Brewster

    Short of cash on wildcard..... What do you think-

    A) TAA and Klich (or anyone sub 5.7)
    B) Digne and Zaha

  4. thepirates
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Extremly tempted by hits atm... hold off? Tinkering Robertson, Antonio and so on...

    McCarthy
    Shaw - TAA - Walker Peters - Justin
    Sterling - Fernandes - Salah
    Mitrovic - Adams - DCL
    Bench: Saint-Maximin - Mitchell - Bissouma

  5. Dannyb
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Current dilemma
    Dunno wether to ship out Mane now, wanted to shift Son and Werner to Vardy and Zaha/Barnes.

    1. schlupptheweek
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      It depends who's on your bench e.g. if you have a 4.5M attacking defender their probably worth playing even with a baddish fixture.

    2. Tcheco
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Why ship Mane?

      1. The Gambler.
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Has covid apparently

  6. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    If you had to start one of these 4? Currently on A...

    A) C. Taylor
    B) B. Davies
    C) Bissouma
    D) Mitchell

    1. Dannyb
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      A

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Thank you 🙂

  7. Tony Martial
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 24 days ago

    What would be your bench order from these 3? (Podence starting)

    Dunne
    Mitchell
    Burke

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I tend to fancy the attacker in these situations.

      Burke, Dunne, Mitchell

    2. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Burke, Mitchell, Dunne probably

  8. Garfield1001
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Play Doherty (mun) or KWP (WBA)?

    Also playing McCarthy

    1. Dannyb
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Kwp

    2. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Would still double up with KWP

    3. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Would double up on Saints. Likely to be 4-2 imo.

  9. schlupptheweek
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Can players who have left the premier league still decrease in price when they're transferred out?
    I have Vassilev who left Villa on loan so will probably have to do a -4 for for Brewster over the break.

    1. The Gambler.
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Yea

    2. teneighty
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Surely you bought him as perma bench fodder. Will you change formation and play Brewster every week?
      Not worth a hit I'd say.

  10. King Kohli
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Considering I'll be choosing a captain from these, which one would you drop on a WC?

    A. Salah
    B. Sterling
    C. Kdb

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Would probably drop Dhoni after today.

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        KDB season keeper but I'd prefer Sterling out of the two right now. Horrible choice to make but one of the City boys to go for me.

    2. schlupptheweek
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I'd be tempted with KDB considering how deep he might play (even with penalties). If you don't like the risk just go Salah and KDB, but Sterling is such low ownership for the goal potential!

    3. Klaren
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I think Sterling is the best captain choice this GW but he is also the player I’d drop in the longer term between the 3.

  11. Bishopool
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    a) Kane and Lundy -> Jimi and Barnes (-4 pts)
    b) Kane -> Jimi
    c) Kane -> Vardy
    b) stay with Kane

    1. Tony Martial
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      B

  12. Karan14
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Jimenez DCL Brewster frontline and invest the funds in midfield & double Pool def?

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      That is the plan from my side!

    2. Frucke
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I have dcl and maupay with double lfc def

    3. SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      thinking same but what about ings?

      1. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        I think I prefer to have Robbo over Ings plus another 1.5m to invest in midfield.

        1. SMOOTH
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          yeah im thinking along the same lines.
          trying to decide between:

          ings and 4.4 def vs foden and digne

          already have trent and robbo

    4. lilmessipran
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Yeah but Ings though?

      1. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Good option definitely. But I think he'll score similar to Robbo who's 1.5m cheaper.

    5. Easy Cheesy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Yep

    6. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Yes. Unless Ings keeps going then it’s a toss up between him and Jim

  13. Frucke
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Play Podence or Trossard?

    1. Avery78
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Podence and have Tross as your #1 on the bench

  14. Kizza_10
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Which option do you prefer ?

    A. Son out, Mahrez in

    B. Son & podence out, Zaha & H.Barnes in (-4)

    C. Son and podence out, H.Barnes & P.Foden in (-4)

  15. The_FF_King
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Anyone sticking with Werner one more week?

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      o/

  16. BadgersBoys
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Bit of help, please?

    A} Trossard
    B) Foden

  17. yiidddoo
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    A)Regulion Castange Foden Zaha Traore Vardy

    B) Kwp Justin Sterling Barnes Podence Ings

    Thoughts ???

  18. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    sorry for repost, got bottomed

    last decision on WC, please advise

    A. ings and 4.4 def
    B. Foden Digne

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Depends on the rest of your team but I like B

      1. SMOOTH
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        DIGNE taa robbo
        salah kdb barnes FODEN soucek
        dcl jiminez

        brewster lamptey mitchell

  19. TheDragon
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Is Davies -> Robertson (-4) worth it?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Long term yes

  20. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    A) GTG
    B) Son out for Mahrez/someone else -4

    Martinez
    Digne James Saiss
    Salah(VC) KDB(C) Son* Foden Podence*
    Jimenez DCL

    (Steer Justin Ayling Brewster) 0FT 1.7m

  21. Jones Town
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Best midfielder 6.1 or below? May be a 1 week punt if I wildcard next week...

    A) Trossard
    B) Soucek
    C) Other?

    1. SMOOTH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      podence maybe but i think digne probably better value

  22. Daniel - Go Granville
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Anyone considered Kane vs a second super expensive 2 mids? meaning keeping only 1 premium from city/liverpool in the mid

    1. ivantys
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Yes but I rather Vardy over Kane. Leicester look like they gonna score lots of goals as compared to spurs.

    2. Albrightondknight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      From GW5 is this rotation viable as at 11th player option
      Either Lamptey in a 451
      Or Brewster in a 352

    3. acidicleo
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Who to ship out?

      A) Martial
      B) Werner

      Already took 0.1 drop on both and both likely to drop again..

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        A

      2. The Senate
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        B or neither

      3. acidicleo
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Dont confident in either players this week..

    4. Easy Cheesy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      On WC. Mad to not choose brewster right? Fulham up first and will rise in price. Even if he is sht it can’t really backfire

      1. The Senate
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        If I was I would

    5. Redranger
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      More important transfer?
      A) Werner > DCL
      B) Davies > Lamptey (or another alternative)

    6. Dele
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Is it better to have...

      Robbo and 5.0 midfielder

      or

      5.0 Defender and Harvey Barnes

    7. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Is Jota worth a punt if Mane has covid?

    8. unitednations
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Just cant decide what to do with Son and Werner

      A: Save FT and reassess
      B: Son >> Barnes and give werner two home games
      C: Son + Werner >> Salah + Maupay (-4)...already have kdb/foden.

      I def want to have Salah by gw6 so either get him now or later

    9. nicecat
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Robbo - Keane - Justin - Mitchell - ???

      A) James
      B) Saiss