Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    KDB to Jota(c)?

    1. Boss Hogg
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Not a chance.

      1. HuttonDressedasLahm
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Was joking 🙂

        1. Boss Hogg
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Oh.

    2. schlupptheweek
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      You know that your joke will score a load of pöints

  2. Boss Hogg
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    a. Werner to Jimenez
    b. JWP to Barnes

    ???

  3. UshFPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Mane with covid, (c) Salah it is

    1. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Mane with Covid, 1-1 final sore it is.

      1. UshFPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Wouldn't be too bad if Salah gets the goal!

    2. Uncle Gamst
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Salah might start with symptoms tomorrow or Sunday

      1. UshFPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        In that case he wouldn't play at all and my vice will get it

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Same here

  4. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Who scores more in gw 4+5? Plan is to def have salah by gw6

    A: Salah + Maupay/Antonio
    B: Sterling + Maupay/Antonio...already have KDB and Foden
    C: Barnes + Werner....

  5. beetlejuice
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Mane reported as positive. Source TV

    1. Galza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      How many followers does this TV bloke have?

      1. beetlejuice
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Not many

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Justice for Drip Doctor

    3. Seanigula
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      LFC confirmed it

  6. Uncle Gamst
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Is it worthwhile doing?

    a) Martial > Jimenez
    b) The above plus Fernandes > Sterling for -4, to take advantage of his potential points against Fulham...even though Fernandes seems to have has point potential, regardless of how United perform
    c) Vinagre > Justin, Lamptey or Saiss/Coady and keep my United players

    McCarthy,
    TAA, Davies, KWP
    KdB, Fernandes, Rodríguez, Soucek,
    DCL, Werber, Martial
    Button, Bissouma, Vinagre, Mitchell

  7. Teror
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Martial >

    A. DCL

    B. Ings

    1. Slitherene
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Save

    2. ...al
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Ings

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Probably save

  8. Slitherene
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    McCarthy ¦ 0 ITB, 1 FT
    TAA - Coady - Justin - Taylor
    KdB - Salah - Jorginho - Son*
    Richarlison - Werner*
    ¦ Mitrovic* - Bissouma - Ward

    1) Werner -> Ings
    2) Werner, Son -> Maupay, Sterling
    3) Werner, Mitrovic -> Wilson, Ings
    4) Or should I roll the FT?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      2

    2. Dream Killers 2.0
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      2

  9. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    a. Sterling(c) -4
    or
    b. JRodriguez

    1. Dream Killers 2.0
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I like A.

  10. Dream Killers 2.0
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Any thoughts on this team? 0.3m in bank and 1 FT.

    Ramsdale
    TAA, Robertson, KWP, Vinagre
    Salah, KDB, Havertz, Podence
    Werner, DCL

    Nyland, Mitchell, Bissouma, Davis

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Werner to Jimenez

  11. ...al
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Jota C

    (for some)

  12. Flynny
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Mane out makes salah a better captain option, right?

    Worth switching from kdb to Salah?

    Or keep on kdb who has had the armband all week? Thanks

    1. UshFPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Think I'm gonna switch to Salah

      1. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        I'm not sure i want the heartache of switching and seeing it go wrong....

        1. UshFPL
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Don't get sentimental over it. Pick the player with the best points potential. This news means Salah should be the focus of Liverpool's attack, though Jota will bring more balance than the likes of Origi playing ahead of Mane

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Yeah, just switched from KDB to Salah

    3. ...al
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Not for me. Absolutely nails KdB captain for me

      Sterling if you got

  13. FPL_trail_runner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 24 days ago

    So -4 looks on

    Y/N?

    Rash to Barnes ..will def do

    Then maybe 2mor

    Keane to Robbo.

    Everton without Allan will concede most likely

  14. mattk lfc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Take a hit to bring in Jota? hmmm

    1. OneArseneWenger32
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 24 days ago

      huge differential and early in the season is worth a punt

  15. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Mane and Trent were both left out of the squad for the Carabao cup. Trent may have it too.

    1. UshFPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Surely the test results would have been back at the same time?

      1. panda07
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        It's the player's choice if it gets announced

    2. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      no news on him just yet

      1. panda07
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        He was named in the England squad so maybe not

  16. Jealous Viper
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Without Mane, Salah has 15 G + A in 9 matches. Looking awfully tempting
    Might switch from Sterling.

    1. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      If Mane played in those games, could there have been 2 or 3 more goals in those particular matches? Possibly.

    2. FPL_trail_runner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Mane tended to miss the easier games

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Exactly

  17. Niho992
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    KdB to Jota done

  18. Messien19
      1 month, 24 days ago

      A) Barnes + Brewster (Bench)
      B) 4.5 Mid (Bench) + Maupay + 0.5 ITB

    • Jonflamingo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Its on official Liverpool account now. Mane out with covid confirmed

    • wildnothing
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Save ft and gtg?

      Martinez
      VVD Digne Saiss
      Sterling KDB Zaha Barnes Foden
      Jimenez DCL

      Steer Mitrovic Lamptey Dunne

    • OptimusBlack
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Salah C ?

    • McGowan
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Which 2 to start?
      A)Foden (Leeds A)
      B)Podence (Fulham H)
      C)Wood (Newcastle A)

      1. F_Ivanovic
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        A + B

    • JAYPEE
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      A) Robertson, Dunne, Stephens, Ings

      Or

      B) TAA, Lamptey, Klich, Bamford

      1. F_Ivanovic
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        A, help below?

    • Zim0
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Why is richarlison given as an example for when u say don't get someone just for penalties but for open play as well? His open play is his main appeal.

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        No idea, he’s a great option.

      2. HuttonDressedasLahm
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        I’d rather have him than DCL, but other fires to fight

    • F_Ivanovic
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Activated WC earlier in the week and been settled on my team but starting to have some minor doubts about it.

      Martinez/4.0

      Robbo/TAA/Lamptey/Dunne/Mitchell
      Salah/KDB/Podence/Pereira/4.4
      Jimenez/Ings/DCL

      I had double pool defence from the start and really want to keep it but I don't like the idea of having 2 4m defenders that may be out of the team very soon (with Dunne potentially out this weekend) Ideally would like a 4.5 defender to rotate with Lamptey which I could do with a downgrade on Podence to Soucek.

      I guess the qn is double pool defence or spread the cash of TAA onto my other defenders?

      1. JAYPEE
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        I think you need to spread the money across the defence. Either drop Robbo or TAA. And upgrade a midfielder and a defender if possible

      2. schlupptheweek
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Good team, I know Dunne will increase in price this week but he is very unlikely to start short and long term with Tomkins back (and Mee soon). You might need an extra 4.5M defender with the way the season is going for security. Maybe downgrade Podence or Pereira to Soucek or Diangana to upgrade Dunne to someone like Ayling.

        1. F_Ivanovic
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Thanks. Podence to Soucek is something on my mind but the next 4 fixtures are too tempting to take the punt. I was thinking of around week 8 going Podence to Soucek then and then upgrade my defence then. Alternatively I could downgrade TAA in a few weeks time and that would also give me some cash to play with.

      3. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Downgrade Podence to Soucek or Solly March

    • Ready Manager One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Which of (1) Jimi or (2) DCL for Werner on 1 FT?

      1. F_Ivanovic
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Jimi for fixtures. Could get DCL later? Help above please?

    • AA
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      The article suggests a 5-3-2. Ridiculous. Find the reasoning for a 4-3-3 strange as well.

      1. Zim0
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Yeah 5-3-2 is a horrible formation usually and even worse right now with the lack of clean sheets

      2. Goonsquad245
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Fábio is a far better FPL player than you or I.

        There is a disconnect in midfield with lots of good highly priced options and not many good mid or lower priced options. Value in defence is always better early season with lower TVs.

      3. ...al
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Yep. Especially with f@ck all clean sheets.

        Absolutely not.

    • TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I did Trump>Mane yesterday. Cant believe it

      1. Keep Calm and Play On
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Poor decision imo Trump was dropping fast and was already looking at getting replaced

      2. ...al
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Need to get this post flagged

        We have a winner

      3. Rains of Castamere
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Sad!(io)

    • Keep Calm and Play On
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Son to Jota anyone?

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        why not

      2. OneArseneWenger32
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 24 days ago

        yes

    • Chucky
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Mane getting infected news true guys?? What about TAA and Salah?

      1. Earwicker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        BBC reporting it.

      2. G00LI0
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Yeah seems so.

      3. Chucky
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        cheers guys.. salah TC locked...