Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Boss Hogg
    • 11 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    For free:

    a. Werner to Jimenez
    b. JWP to Barnes
    c. JWP to Jota

    ???

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      All good transfers. JWP the priority. I’d get Grealish but Liverpool up next.

    2. JoeSoap
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      B 2 nice fixtures

    3. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      B Jota will be usefull for one GW

  2. Alex1995
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Salah or KDB skipper this week?

    1. JoeSoap
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      On KDB, potentially more goals in Leeds game

  3. JoeSoap
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Any changes on WC?

    McCarthy
    Justin, TAA, Dunne
    Salah, KDB, Trossard, Pereira
    Jimmy, Vardy, DCL
    Steer, Lamptey, Mitchell, Mendy

    1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Extremally risky defence. 3 players who may be dropped soon Mitchell Dunne and Justin. Additionally still slight potential risk that Lamptey go to Bayern

      1. JoeSoap
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Thanks. That is a worry and don't want to be spending transfers on defenders.

  4. Coys96
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Salah or KDB cap?

    1. OneArseneWenger32
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 14 days ago

      still kdb

  5. Goonsquad245
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    With that Mane positive test (which is terrible by the way) everyone will now stumble their way onto the best captain option of the week through the misguided belief that Salah will never deliver in away games with Mane and is god like without.

    Frustrating that he’ll be less of a differential.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Do you realise how needy you sound?

      1. kamdaraji
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        oh dear

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          agree

      2. Goonsquad245
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Salah non-owner?

    2. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Mane is my captain. Taking another hit to bring Auba(C)

      1. Goonsquad245
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Bad luck

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Nope. Villa's defense has been very strong and last season Pool struggled to break them down. I don't think this is the right captain whether Mane is fit or not.

      1. Goonsquad245
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Liverpool scored 4 goals in 2 games vs Villa last season. Imagine if they actually have a good game against them

    4. lilmessipran
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Is this Mo's mum?

  6. Arsenal97
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    12.4m for 5th mid and forward ?

    A) Jimenez Burke
    B) Maupay Podence
    C) Mitrovic Trossard

    1. McGowan
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Brewster and a more expensive mid?

      1. Arsenal97
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Zaha ?

      2. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        This

  7. Ramsays Raw Steak
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Mane got covid
    Jota in ?

    1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      For one week?

  8. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Club changed but no flag for Brewster. Maybe he is eligible for Arsenal - I was under the impression he wasn't registered in time...

    1. OneArseneWenger32
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 14 days ago

      he isnt available vs gunners

      1. Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Yeah I thought that
        Bit of a bad error on FPL's part then?

  9. El Fenomeno R9
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Build up nicely for null and void soon...expecting November

  10. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    LIV without Mane, Salah will mop up the points?

  11. Jon Walter's Hatty
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Surely Klopp is next he is forever cuddling Sadio

    1. kamdaraji
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      will all the pool players have to self isolate?

      1. Jon Walter's Hatty
        • 7 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Who knows, just have to keep the tests going as regularly as possible

  12. Catastrophe
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Bench order right chaps?

    Bissouma (eve)
    Mitchell (che)
    Brewster (ars)

    Cheers

  13. Zim0
    • 2 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Anyone else from Liverpool have covid?

  14. SM001
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Son to Barnes or Jota (With Mane now out) ???

  15. Greenbackbøøg…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Is Godrey gonna replace Keane or Mina?

  16. Cookie Kid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    A) Werner to Ings, play AWB (free)
    B) Werner, AWB to Vardy, Justin (-4)
    C) Werner, AWB to Ings, Castagne (-4)
    D)o nothing

  17. Coys96
    • 3 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Bruno & Werner > Salah & Ings (-4)

    Like this, btw I don't need to do Werner to Ings to fund Bruno to Salah, but I think it might well be worth the -4.

  18. Tinmen
    • 7 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Folks debating over KDB and Salah captain, but surely Jimmy is the best pick this week ?

    1. F4L
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Jimmy is the best if you just want a captain return.

    2. McGowan
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      On Jimenez atm but KDB and Salah is tempting me...

  19. sergioaguero67
    • 5 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Vardy or Barnes?
    Please help

    1. Coys96
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Barnes

    2. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Barnes

  20. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Id be surprised if the season makes it through October without a shutdown

    1. F4L
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      would never happen, a shut down benefits nobody.

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Like it didn't happen last time? 😉

        1. F4L
          • 6 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          😛
          Happened last time to increase capacity for NHS and because relatively little was known about the virus.

          1. Tinkermania
            • 1 Year
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Remember he is talking about the league shutting down not the country.

            1. F4L
              • 6 Years
              3 months, 14 days ago

              Fair enough, but again who would that benefit?

              The virus will be around for a while, putting everything on hold won't change that.

    2. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Football is pretty much on shutdown already

  21. Drip Doctor
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Does anyone have a sauce for the Mane news?

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      You?

    2. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Liverpool's own Twatter

    3. ZeBestee
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Its there on their official twitter handle

    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Stay classy, Drip.

    5. Earwicker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      BBC

    6. Bennerman
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      You were being a tool about it earlier though, in fairness

      1. Drip Doctor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        I was trying to help people enjoy their Friday evening, Breaking the news early so they could make decisions and relax for the rest of the evening. Now, they are at home, in their boxers, at 10:20pm, deciding whether or not to sell Mane, whether or not to switch the captaincy to Salah. What a life.

    7. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      It was some bloke called Boomer i think

    8. Olson
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Haha I came here just to see you gloat

      You should get an extra bonus year to add to your ten

      1. Drip Doctor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Should get promoted to to the scoutcast, bye Jonty.

    9. He Kane He Saw He Conquered
      • 10 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Ketchup?

  22. Dele
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Soucek the best 5m option?

    1. Gazzz
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I'd say so

    2. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      He or Solly March

  23. Rhodes your boat
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    I know a lot will be asking the same question after mané news so here we go! Who to captain?

    A) kdb
    B) salah

    1. ZeBestee
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Wont complicate it, KDB easy.

  24. sentz05
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    What shall I do with Son? JRod or Mahrez?

    1. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Hamez safe option Mahrez if starts higher ceiling

    2. Zrinkec
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Barnes

    3. gomez123
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      1) Sterling
      2) Salah
      For the armband

      1. COLLIN QUEEFER
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Sterling

      2. ZeBestee
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Sterling. You wont get a better gameweek to captain him in a long time

      3. Coys96
        • 3 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        1

        1. gomez123
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          thanks all

    4. Tony Martial
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Everyone going with Salah then (c)?

      1. kamdaraji
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        no

    5. Ady87
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      If you own Son and Podence what are you doing this week?

      £1.2m ITB, 1FT

      McCarthy
      James Saiss Taylor (Lamptey Mitchell)
      Salah SON KDB Greenwood (PODENCE)
      Jimi DCL Mitro

      Son > Havertz worth a punt this week?

      1. Rains of Castamere
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        I'm starting both with Shaw Klich on the bench

        I think podence plays but not son

    6. damiang2233
      • 11 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Any update on Podence or Lacelles fitness?

      1. sentz05
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        News is that Lasceles has a hammy

        1. damiang2233
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Out for how long?

    7. Van der Faart
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Werner to

      A) DCL
      B) Jimmy

      A obviously frees up extra funds for elsewhere

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Both ideally, but B between the two give penalties and fixtures.

      2. Sir_Dunc
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        DCL for me, but go with your gut.

    8. Tony Martial
      • 2 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      What would be your bench order from these 3? (Podence starting)

      Dunne
      Mitchell
      Burke.

      1. ZeBestee
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Same