Learning from the Great and the Good 20/21 – Gameweek 4

“Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

Turn and face the strange

Ch-ch-changes

There’s gonna have to be a different man”

I’ll let you into a trade secret, I normally write these ramblings with a flagon of coffee the morning after the Gameweek finishes, it gives me chance to take stock over the events of the weekend and calmly analyse the performance of The Great And The Good.

With a clear head I hope to offer an insight here, a pun there and maybe a lesson or two learnt from some of the more prominent FPL managers.

Yet, I’ve woken up this morning still not quite able to make sense of the fantasy carnage that has unravelled, we thought Gameweek 3 was an anomaly but Gameweek 4, with a wicked sense of one-upmanship, has taken it to a different level.

I’ve had to ask Mrs Greyhead to slap me a couple of times to check I wasn’t still in an FPL nightmare, which she did with great relish I should add, and I’ve even given my coffee a suspicious sip in case it was laden with something stronger than caffeine.

So, it is with this sense of disbelief that I turn to The Great and The Good to see if they can shine any light on what on earth we can expect next as we turn and face the strange world of the 2020/21 season.

The Great and The Good are the Scouts Neale Rigg and Joe Lepper, Pro Pundits (Mark Sutherns, Az, Lateriser, Fabio Borges and Tom Freeman ), FPL “celebrities”, FPL General,  Magnus Carlsen and finally from the Hall of Fame we have Ville Ronka, Matthew Jones and Sean Tobin

OVERALL PERFORMANCE

A week of mixed fortunes but Fabio is making a mockery of the mayhem, scoring 81 points and hitting his third green arrow to move him up to 28,000.

His patient approach, he kept Son despite the Mourinho mind games, along with strong captaincy picks and a slice of luck this week as Bissouma came off his bench sees him set a strong early-season pace.

Fabio handed the armband to Salah this week for the third time this season and it was the Mo captainers who won the day this Gameweek as both Magnus and Tom were amongst the leading scorers.

Ville Ronka was the biggest riser with James Rodriguez, Salah and Saiss helping him to a 694,000 green arrow, with the highest team value he looks poised to continue his climb as long as can start nailing his captain picks and get over his love/hate relationship with Son.

A nod to Mark who is the only one to own Grealish and his twenty-four points against Liverpool helped one half of the Black Box double act to a green arrow. Talking of green arrows well done to Lateriser who has now started his ascent of a very large mountain aided by his Sterling armband.

WILDCARD

Is there a new maverick in town? Joe, traditionally a more conservative manager, surprised us all by playing his Wildcard the week before the international break.

Not only did the timing break with convention but in keeping with the new normal, he placed his decision-making inside his own bubble keeping the squad selection away from public scrutiny until it’s release into the world on Saturday morning.

There are ten changes made with the majority being cosmetic until you get to his forward line which has been transformed with Martial, Werner and Adams cast aside for the mouth-watering trio of Calvert-Lewin, Ings and Jimenez.

All very smart moves, unless you count the omission of Watkins and Wilson, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted they would have been the two strikers to hit double figures this weekend.

The other sign that Joe may be undergoing a Bowie-style reinvention towards being a maverick is the absence of Mo Salah and the inclusion of Harvey Barnes, all very un-Joe like but I suppose sacrifices were needed to keep that double Liverpool defence, which looked to be the only certainty in this season until Adrian turned up and conceded seven to make us all question even this conviction.

The full moves are below:-

IN – Martinez, Steer, Justin, Lamptey, Sterling, Barnes, Stephens, Calvert-Lewin, Ings, Jimenez

OUT – Ryan, Walton, Dier, Walker-Peters, Salah, Podence, Bissouma, Martial, Werner, Adams

TRANSFERS

This is a summary of the transfers for this week :

Az – Jimenez, Semedo (Martial, Davies)

Fabio Borges – James (Justin)

Joe Lepper – Wildcard

FPL General – Calvert-Lewin (Mitrovic)

Lateriser – No transfers

Magnus Carlsen – Jimenez (Werner)

Mark Sutherns – Calvert-Lewin, Jimenez (Werner, Adams)

Matthew Jones – Robertson, Jimenez (Doherty, Werner)

Neale Rigg – No transfers

Sean Tobin – No transfers

Tom Freeman – Jimenez (Martial)

Ville Ronka – Barnes (Son)

*transfers out are in brackets

Jimenez was the priority transfer with Az, Mark and, pause for an audible gasp, Matthew taking a hit for the Wolves forward who was bound to score against that ropey Fulham defence.

The other player to join Mark’s squad in that hit was Calvert-Lewin which was more successful as his dream start continued with another goal to take him to 37 points already this season. FPL General was able to capture the Everton man, who has risen to 7.6 million now, without the need for a minus four.

The stormy relationship between Ville Ronka and Son continues as he sold him again this week, remember he released him prior to his four goals against Southampton, and history repeated as the South Korean recovered from his “injury” to brace again.

TEMPLATE

The template for The Great and The Good is as follows with the number in brackets showing how many teams in which they appear:-

Steer (6), Button/McCarthy/Martinez (4)

Alexander-Arnold (11), Walker-Peters (7), Mitchell (7), Robertson (5), Justin/Digne/Lamptey/Ayling/James (4)

De Bruyne (12), Salah (10), Podence (6), Bissouma/Soucek/Foden/Rodriguez (4)

Jimenez (9), Calvert-Lewin (7), Werner (6)

The Great and The Good template reflects the confusion amongst the managers with very few certainties across their squads.

New faces this week were Jimenez who must start delivering with some nice fixtures ahead and Robertson arrives but there must be doubts around a double Liverpool defence if their high line continues to be breached as easily as it was by Villa.

TEMPLATE-BUSTERS

During times of uncertainty sticking to the template can be a source of comfort, knowing at least that there is a shared suffering when your players with high ownership fail to perform.

Live FPL, built by Ragabolly, is a fantastic tool and incredibly addictive for those wanting to check their ranks live as the action unfolds but it also provides a comparison of your squad against the template.

Therefore, I thought it of interest to see how the squads compare against the template as measured by Live FPL, bearing in the mind the usual guidance is a 50-70% match to allow for a balance of ownership and differential.

The majority sit between 60-65%, so far so good but the big outliers are Lateriser with 34%, no surprise due to his template busting reputation, but also Az, Joe and Matthew who sit around 50%. You expect Az to be there but have the former dullards Joe and Matthew changed their ways?

CONCLUSION

Lots to ponder over the international break with many of us wondering whether we need to change our ways and adapt to the unpredictable campaign. Should the dullard become the maverick? Should we simply ignore fixtures and focus just on form or just wildcard and hope for the best?

Before we start to reinvent ourselves, I would cast your eye to the top of The Great and The Good table. Fabio hasn’t changed his approach – he has stayed patient, kept faith in his squad and stuck with the mantra, if in doubt always go with Mo.

Maybe the only change we need to make is to be a bit more like Fabio.

Anyway, that’s all from me for now and remember don’t have nightmares. Will be back next week where I will cast my eye over the Community teams who have dared to challenge The Great and The Good. Enjoy the break!

For those affected by any of the topics raised in the above article then you can find me on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Greyhead19