Spot the Differential

In-form FPL differential Watkins set for favourable fixture run after Foxes test

Gameweek 4 saw one of our differential picks, Leandro Trossard (£6.0m), deliver for his owners, while former column favourites Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and Ryan Fraser (£5.9m) also registered attacking returns.

There’s no shortage of candidates to consider this week, either.

This time, we’ve selected differentials from Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Manchester United, who we like the look of for Gameweek 5 and beyond.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Ollie Watkins

Making Sense of the Chaos 1
  • FPL ownership: 3.5%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: lei | LEE | SOU | ars | BHA

Ollie Watkins (£5.9m) has got off to a flying start at Aston Villa, having arrived in Birmingham last month for a club-record fee of £28m.

After scoring in a pre-season friendly against Manchester United, he has since bagged a goal on his debut against Burton Albion in the Carabao Cup and hit a hat-trick in the 7-2 win over Liverpool. It’s now five goals in six games in all competitions, and you get the feeling he’s just getting started.

The 24-year-old, who scored 26 goals in the Championship last term, has very few weaknesses to his game. He is a quick, strong and extremely hard-working forward, who is equally comfortable holding up the ball or offering a threat in behind. The breakdown of last season’s goals also backs up his all-rounder tag: 16 were scored from inside the penalty area, eight from inside the six-yard box, with two coming from long-range. He is also capable with both feet – he netted 10 with his right foot, seven with his left foot and eight with his head.

Since making his debut in Gameweek 2, Watkins ranks joint-fourth for shots in the box, joint-second for big chances and third for chances created amongst forwards, which suggests points will arrive from both goals and assists.

He now faces a Leicester City defence that has conceded seven goals in their last three league outings, and may be without key centre-back Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.5m). The real appeal, however, lies in what’s to come, with an appealing schedule that runs right up until Gameweek 15.

Priced at just £5.9m, Watkins was recently labelled “undefendable” by Jürgen Klopp. If he can now kick on and build on that performance against Liverpool, he may well be the pick of the budget FPL forwards.

Vicente Guaita

  • FPL ownership: 4.6%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: BHA | ful | wol | LEE | bur

After arriving from Getafe in summer 2018, Vicente Guaita (£5.0m) has gone on to establish himself as one of Crystal Palace’s most influential players.

The 33-year-old was the Eagles’ stand-out performer last season, combining 10 clean sheets with 16 bonus points and 27 save points. As a result, his total of 137 points was bettered by only six goalkeepers.

Although far from the most attacking of teams, Roy Hodgson has done a good job making Palace one of the most organised sides around. His players are well drilled and understand their roles, which has ensured a steady stream of clean sheets over the years.

This season, a win against Southampton on the opening day was followed by another victory at Manchester United, which showcased their defensive qualities and threat on the counter-attack. Even in the defeat at Everton there were positives. However, their 4-0 defeat at Chelsea last time out felt like a throwback to their terrible form during Project Restart. Still, six points on the board, considering their schedule, is a good enough start.

Palace welcome Brighton and Hove Albion this weekend. The M23 derby is usually a tight affair, with the last three league meetings separated by one goal or fewer. After that, their fixture run looks promising, with a decent-looking sequence of matches right up until mid-December.

Guaita’s numbers consistently rank amongst the best goalkeepers in the league, and with his outstanding shot-stopping ability, he could be a nice differential for those on the lookout for a new keeper.

Mason Greenwood

should-we-be-planning-for-manchester-united-fpl-attacking-players 5
  • FPL ownership: 5.0%
  • Price: £7.3m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: new | CHE | ARS | eve | WBA

Having made a huge impact towards the end of the 2019/20 season, Mason Greenwood’s (£7.3m) reclassification to a midfielder by FPL was met with widespread enthusiasm in the community, and understandably so.

He netted five times in just eight league starts post-lockdown, helping Manchester United secure a top-three finish and Champions League football.

However, so far this season, things haven’t quite gone to plan.

Greenwood, a product of United’s academy, has made four appearances for the Red Devils, with his only goal contributions arriving in the Carabao Cup. Playing out on the right wing, he has often looked isolated, leading him to snatch at shots when he has had an opportunity.

An error of judgement with England resulted in Gareth Southgate leaving him out of his latest squad, which has meant he has been able to rest these last couple of weeks, and the hope is now that the break will have done him good, providing the physical and mental respite needed.

This weekend, a trip to Newcastle United gives United the chance to get back on track, and with Anthony Martial (£8.8m) and Edinson Cavani (£8.0m) unavailable, we could see Greenwood leading the line as a central striker. Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) and Odion Ighalo (£6.3m) are other options but it would seem to make sense that Greenwood is moved to play in his natural position with either Daniel James (£6.4m) or Juan Mata (£5.9m) playing from the right.

A skilful forward who has excellent finishing abilities, Greenwood can become a top number nine in years to come, and if given an opportunity to put forward his credentials this weekend, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him get on the scoresheet.


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475 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Tsparkes10
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    Kane, Son, Grealish in for Werner, Kdb, Burke (-8) too much?

    1. Kakashi Of The Leaf
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Werner could come good.

      1. Mr. O'Connell
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Lol

    2. AnfieldLad
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Way too much for me. KDB -> Son

  2. Kakashi Of The Leaf
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    With KDB out any City midfielder outside of Sterling that could be nailed?

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Mahrez?

      1. Kakashi Of The Leaf
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Ferran? Bernardo?

  3. Top Lad Dakes.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    Would you punt on Bale in for hit for KDB?

    Or prefer a Chelsea mid? Got Son Salah Hamez..

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 12 days ago

      In a similar situation. I wouldn't go for Bale personally just yet, however, I am seriously considering KDB to Pulisic for a -4

    2. Hart-ake
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Debating Pulisic or Bale in. In both cases, it feels too early to be going there, but with basically no bench (Lamptey flagged + others), might be forced into it.

      Bale surely comes off the bench this week.

  4. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    Sterling fit to play then?

  5. Pedram
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    Is KDB really out or Pep is playing mind games again?

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Who knows. You getting him out for a hit, for free, or keeping?

      1. King Kun Ta
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Have to get him out for -4.....did an early Bruno -> Son! Bummer!

      2. Pedram
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        I early transferred him out for Son.

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Ah, you did well then! 🙂

  6. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    That KDB > Son early move last week looks much less rash than it did at the time.

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Should have done that myself in hindsight. Transformed Werner to Son with my 2FTs instead and now having to deal with KDB for a hit

  7. Flynny
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 12 days ago

    Hi all. 3.7mitb. 1ft. What to do here please?

    Martinez
    Taa saiss james (Mitchell lamptey)
    Kdb salah foden podence (burke)
    Jiminez dcl watkins

    A.....Kdb to son for free

    B.....Kdb and podence to sterling and son - 4

    1. Gomolon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Podence or Foden to Son

  8. Fit_to_drop
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 12 days ago

    Finalsing my WC

    Can have one of these:
    a. Robbo / Hamez / Grealish
    b. Castagne / Salah / McGinn

    which do you prefer?

    1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      B as it has Salah

    2. Zrinkec
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Salah is the man.

    3. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Pick one to play

      A) Pulisic
      B) Brewster

      1. sully29
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        A

      2. Fit_to_drop
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Id go A. Lampard has already seen his other squad members. Now he has to start looking at the likes of Pulisic and Ziyech.

      3. Rains of Castamere
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        B

    4. Bobby_Baggio
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Morning all. 2FT and 1.7m ITB. Thinking Mitro > DCL or Lewis > Saiss or Both?

      McCarthy
      Davies - TAA - Justin
      KDB - Hamez - Salah - Podence
      Ings - Mitro - Jimenez

      (Martin) - Lewis - Johnson - Stephens

      1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        DCL and save

        1. tim
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Did Mitro to DCL myself this week.

      2. Bobby_Baggio
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        cheers both - should of done DCL sooner but wanted to wait.

    5. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Any particular reason not to do KDB, Podence, Werner > Salah, Son, Brewster (-4)?

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 12 days ago

        No reason. I'd do it.

    6. Atimis
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Worth keeping 0.5ITB on WC or upgrade e.g. 5th mid/def?

      Currently my bench would be like: Lamptey, 4.4mid, 4.0def

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Lamptey *should* cover you but he has limped off in a couple of games and isnt the strongest looking guy. For that reason, i dont have him as sub #1. I prefer to go with someone who always plays.

    7. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 12 days ago

      Can't believe I'm considering Kdb to Jorginho...

      But it allows Brewster to Kane next week. Already own Son.

    8. Zrinkec
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Kane Salah or Son for captain? Damn such tough vall.

        1. Fit_to_drop
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 12 days ago

          1 or 3

      • crazysidz
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        grealish or barkley??

        1. rnrd
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          give it a week and the leicester game to see and assess imo

        2. Fit_to_drop
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Easy. Grealish.

      • Michelle Davin
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        A) Sterling & Tossard
        or
        B)Hames & Zaha

        Thanks

        1. JONALDINHO
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          A

      • waltzingmatildas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        KDB to Mané instead of son too risky?

        1. Baines on Toast...
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          not at all

        2. sully29
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Whether it will work out or not I have no idea but I wouldn't say it's too risky.

        3. waltzingmatildas
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Cheers guys. Going to do it. Think I'll be wcing next gw anyway so can fix it if it's a mistake

      • ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Run for the Son, little one

        1. Bun Rab L3D2
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          You're an outlaw once again.

          1. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Was starting to think I was the only old git on here today 😉

      • Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        KDB replacements, know i should just get Salah but tempted to get Pulisic this GW and Salah next.

        1. Puntillimon
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          But risky but could pay off

          1. Puntillimon
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Bit risky*

          2. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Involves an extra -4 next GW too.... hmmmm

        2. Hart-ake
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Just go straight to Salah.

      • Make United Great Again
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        KDB & Ings OUT

        Pulisic & Kane (C) IN

        Anyone else make these moves?

        1. Hart-ake
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Quality moves.

        2. Original Pirate Material
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Like it

      • manu4life99
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        A) KDB > Sterling (-4)
        B) Hold (Mitchell Bissouma KWP bench)

        McCarthy
        TAA Dallas Justin
        Salah KDB* Son Rodriguez
        Jiminez DCL Watkins

        steer mitchell bissouma kwp

      • The Mantis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        I require help for 1 defender spot in my WC team, 5.3 ITB

        Guaita (Button)
        Saiss / Robbo / ? (Dallas / Mitchell)
        Jrod / Son / Salah / Grealish (Bissouma)
        Wilson / Kane / DCL

        Thanks

        1. Jimjam
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Would you be tempted to downgrade Guaita to Martinez/Ryan/McCarthy and then get Chilwell/Castagne as that 3rd defender?

          1. The Mantis
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Maybe, but I wanted someone from Palace because of their run of fixtures

        2. Firmino
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          Lamptey

      • thehodge
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        I just know when I’m drinking later that I’m going to bring in Bale for KDB for -4... and I’m not even mad at it

        1. Puntillimon
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          I’m tempted to bring bale in for triple spurs Attack.....!

      • Bishopool
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Weird feeling, but I still dont want to WC..

        McCarthy
        TAA Egan Mitchell (AWB, KWP)
        KDB Salah Barnes Podence (ASM)
        Jimi Rich Mitro

        a) WC
        b) KDB -> Son
        c) KDB and Rich -> Kane and Son (-4pts)
        d) Do nothing! Stick with KDB being differential.. and i cant believe im saying it

      • Jimjam
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Final WC decision:

        Martinez
        Robertson, Saiss, Chilwell
        Salah, Son, ???, Rodriguez
        ???, DCL, Maupay

        (A) KDB, Wilson/Watkins
        (B) Kane, Grealish

        1. royals forever
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          B

        2. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 12 days ago

          KDB injured mate

          1. Jimjam
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            Ah - thanks! I suppose same question, but Sterling instead of KDB then!

        3. Fit_to_drop
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 12 days ago

          B. You can always go back and KDB is not going to hurt if its only for 2-3 games. He is out for 1 of them anyway.

      • Fit_to_drop
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Guaita or Martinez on WC folks?

      • royals forever
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Who would you sell first out of

        Werner
        or
        Ward Prowse

        Any ideas would be welcomed

      • Kane Lane
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Thinking KDB to Bale putting cap on him for minus 4?

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          May as well, could be out longer than a week too, by the sound of it.

      • Firmino
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 12 days ago

        Surely KdB out makes every other City asset worse also?

        1. tuvok
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 12 days ago

          You would think so. City did win the league in 2019 without him though, he was injured for most of that campaign. More worrying for City though is if Aguero isn't fit yet, and Jesus has been confirmed out, David Silva's gone... it's quite a lot of problems beyond KDB

          1. Brosstan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 12 days ago

            That season they had Sane who is better than all their attacking players bar kdb

      • JollyGoodYellows
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 12 days ago

        With KDB out would you just move him out for Son? I know I have some fires to put out in defence but will sort next week with a hit.

        Mccarthy (Button)
        TAA Davies Justin (Holding Mitchell)
        Salah KDB JRod Soucek (Bissouma)
        DCL Werner Ings