Pro Pundit Teams

Loss aversion and why we hold on to underperforming players in FPL

In my previous article, I discussed the difficulties we often find in transferring out players who have been performing well, even when it might appear beneficial for us to do so. 

However, sometimes we hold on to players too long even when they’re not doing well. This article is the Part One of a two-piece series that will consider the possible causes for that behaviour and how we might overcome them to make better transfer decisions.

Loss Aversion

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias in humans that describes our tendency to fear losses more than we value gains. Specifically, scientific studies have shown that we fear losses approximately twice as much as we value gains. 

This probably explains why we’re reluctant to take hits on players who are unlikely to ‘explode’, but it also goes some way to explaining why we hold on to underperforming players too long.

Arguably the number one source of anxiety among Fantasy managers comes from transferring a player out who you suspect might suddenly start scoring, something that always seems to happen. 

The hundreds of thousands of managers who transferred Timo Werner (£9.3m) out ahead of his two goals and assist in Gameweek 5 can probably relate to this feeling. It is, essentially, a feeling of points lost. Because we anticipate this feeling, we fail to act as a result.

Warped Reality

In reality, players we transfer out probably don’t score nearly as often as we think, we just remember the instances when they do, thus mentally inflating their frequency. It also doesn’t necessarily become a bad action to have removed a previously underperforming player, just because that player suddenly decides to start scoring that Gameweek.

While it might feel like this kind of thing is a matter of luck, one of the key skill elements of FPL is identifying the contextual factors that influence whether a player will score or not. 

Taking Werner as an example again, he had been previously playing out of position on the left wing and a move to the central striker position seemingly improved his prospects. However, he was also playing against a Southampton team who played a high defensive line, something that suits pacy players like Werner. 

Therefore, if either or both of these conditions are removed, it’s possible that Werner will go back to underperforming. The skill, therefore, is figuring out what conditions are important to the prospects of a player, and whether they will be consistently present.

If the conditions that contributed to a player’s sudden change in form are not sustainable, managers who transferred them out should not lose sleep over their decision, particularly if it enabled a move to an alternative with better long-term prospects. The spectre of this occurring should also not deter a manager from making a move if it makes objective sense based on whatever standards they employ to make their decisions.

It’s not because of you

Most importantly, although it might feel like it, a player did not start scoring because you transferred them out. That kind of ‘magical thinking’ can quickly sabotage a Fantasy manager’s season as it removes logic and objectivity and puts events firmly into the hands of chance. 

Stick to your trusted methods and, if they happen to fail you one Gameweek, console yourself with the knowledge that it absolutely, definitely, happens to everyone.

In Part Two, I’ll be discussing the ‘Endowment Effect’, coffee mugs, and why we sometimes prefer our low performers to others’ high performers.

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1,687 Comments Post a Comment
  1. aaroncfc
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Bench one:
    Chilwell
    Reguilon
    Digne
    Kilman
    Foden
    Barkley

    1. Jönny
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Probably Reguillon

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Kilman or Chilwell

    3. aapoman
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Kilman

    4. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Chilwell

    5. aaroncfc
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Thanks guys

  2. ZoumasBloomers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Anyone think KDB wasn’t really injured and Pep was just giving him the rest he’d asked for?

    1. Maddamotha
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      No

    2. The Handsome Hunk
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Do you think he would start this weekend ? Is it good to hold him?

    3. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Zero chance

    4. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Possibly, I dont think the injury was too bad if he was cycling with the Belgian squad the next day

    5. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      If Pep wants to rest or bench/sideline you, he doesn't need to lie about it. He's already known for doing it and is currently doing it to some players (Zinch and Bilva, Mendy warming up)

    6. Bubz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Nah

  3. Jönny
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    All good to go?

    Martinez (Steer)
    Robertson, Saiss, Lamptey (Kilman, Struijk)
    Mane (c), Son, Foden, Harrison (Poveda)
    Aguero (vc), Kane, DCL

    1. No Totti No Party
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      WC ?

      1. Jönny
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Yep

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Not convinced with the Harrison and Poveda picks. Nice captain pick

      1. Jönny
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Leeds fan... I think for 4.4, unlikely to need him, has looked good coming off the bench.

        And I like Harrison, plus have team loyalty making me want at least one Leeds attacker just because I've never been able to pick them before!

        1. No Totti No Party
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Harrison playing to deep for me, maybe risk with Lookman ?

          1. Jönny
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Really? I haven't noticed that so much when watching him... he was pushed back a bit in the second half against Wolves, and to be fair I would slightly worry about losing minutes to Raphinha going forwards, but in the other games he has been very attacking.

            1. No Totti No Party
              • 9 Years
              1 month, 2 days ago

              he helps a lot in the back imo

              1. Jönny
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                1 month, 2 days ago

                True.. I think they all do at Leeds.

                Didn't realise Lookman was only 5.0... I will have a look, man.

                Thanks for the input.

  4. Ze_Austin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    The league's current worst defences according to big chances conceded in last FOUR matches are Man U (14), Liverpool (12), Man City (11) and Arsenal (10, joint 4th with West Brom and Fulham)

    Bottomed, so reposting

  5. ZoumasBloomers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Sat with Mitchell and Taylor (Mitchell starting). Sell Taylor for Lamptey and bench Mitchell?

    1. The Handsome Hunk
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Wait for a week.

      1. The Handsome Hunk
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Would sell Mitchell before Taylor.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 2 days ago

      If FT, just save

  6. Feed tha Sheep
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Would generally never take a hit for a defender but I have wanted to get Davies out for three weeks now and never have a FT to do so. It prob won’t come off this week but should over next few..would be someone up to 4.9...thoughts please? Otherwise will have to play Mitchell...

    1. No Totti No Party
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      I did a hit for Kilman, chasing price and points 🙂

      1. Feed tha Sheep
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Have saiss so would prob be for Villa def or Lamptey..just not sure if worth a -4?

    2. Jönny
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      I think taking hits for the long term is sensible. Playing Mitchell this week not the worst, but he may not start - depends on your other defenders, but Lamptey could be a good move if you don't already have him.

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 2 days ago

        This for me - make sure the player is nailed and has good upcoming fixtures

        1. Feed tha Sheep
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Villa def or Lamptey?

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Targett and use the money elsewhere

    3. Ze_Austin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Konsa

  7. drughi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Mccarthy
    TAA Robertson Lamptey
    Jrod* Salah(C) Son Grealish
    Watkins Kane DCL

    Forster Ayling Soucek Douglas

    Was all set on saving transfer before jrod news. What to do now ? still save ?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 2 days ago

      save, good bench

  8. farmerfat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Mane to outscore Salah this weekend?

    1. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Let me check my crystal ball

      1. farmerfat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Let me know the results 🙂

        1. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Haha

          I back Mane but fear that Salah gets a pen

      2. tiltkamp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Jota probably taking most of Manes minutes this week

        1. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Nope

          1. tiltkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Icing his knee when subbed off vs Ajax. — Jota look magnetic when he came on. — SHU playing with two left feet.. just a hunch Jota sees more gt than him

    2. ZeBestee
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      I think it's probably Salah's gameweek.

    3. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Yes

  9. Maddamotha
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Best Palace defender to pick on WC? Ward?

    1. Crystal Alice
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Cahill until PVA back

  10. Bezdon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Hold J Rod and have to play Bissouma this week

    OR bring in Foden (or another) before inevitable price drop on Jamez

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Hold

    2. cheeky moses
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Got a similar dilemma. I don't fancy downgrading Hames. For me it's an upgrade or hold.

      1. Bezdon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Thanks for the advice both.

        Yeah I’d have 8.8 to spend...havertz/mahrez/etc not floating my boat yet and can’t reach premium. I’ll leave it, use the double transfer to free funds and upgrade if needed next GW

  11. Crystal Alice
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Pereira > Zaha -4
    Y/N

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 2 days ago

      No - Pereira on set pieces and can provide an assist to the two CB.

  12. cheeky moses
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    need some advice here,

    A) Hames and PVA > Bruno and Kilman (-4)
    B) Hold, play Bissouma and hope PVA gets a start

    1. Indpush
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Hold and play Hames with Bissouma on the bench

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 2 days ago

        +1

      2. cheeky moses
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        cheers

  13. Indpush
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Have Reguilon, PVA, Saiss, Chilwell, Kilman playing three at the back.

    Who am I starting this week?

    1. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 2 days ago

      R, S, K

    2. aaroncfc
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Similar predicament to me, I have Digne Chilwell Reguilon Kilman to pick from. Kilman probably favourite for the clean sheet out of those but the attacking returns potential of the others makes the decision really tough! Currently I’m benching Kilman.

    3. Dosh
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      That's a hard one, surely you could bench another mid?

      1. Indpush
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        My mids, Son, Salah, Grealish, Zaha with Jorginho first on bench

    4. Ronniie
        1 month, 2 days ago

        First three.

      • Tonyawesome69
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Difficult one. The only nailed players are Reguillon and Chilwell. Other 3 might start.

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Other 3 might not start

    5. El Magico5
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Anyone else not saying a word about fpl in their group chats until 6:35pm? Will be a few boneheads who forget!

      1. No Totti No Party
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Yeah 😀

      2. Von Lipwig
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        haha, evil genius

      3. Bubbles1985
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        100%!!

      4. Rolls-Royce
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Most people are being spoon-fed about deadline reminders. Probably won't matter much.

    6. Dark Side Of The Loon!
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Which defender between 4.5 to 5.5 would you recommend only on the basis of attack potential? Have Lamptey and Dallas as of now in that bracket.

      Thanks a lot!

      1. ElliotJHP
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        KWP likes to get forward for the saints.

        I have got one eye on Bellerin as a potential Trent downgrade in a couple weeks time.

        West Ham boys - Masuaku/Cresswell/Coufal look like good options too

        1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          I am looking at Bellerin too. Or even Tierny. How about Reguilon?

          1. ElliotJHP
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Yeah Reguilion is a great shout, I don't think I will go there myself as I will be looking to change GW8 and Spurs fixtures change for the worse shortly after.

      2. Tonyawesome69
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Creswell and Keane

    7. ElliotJHP
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      Shame tonights game is a PPV, should be a good watch.

      Don't think PPV will last this current batch of fixtures tbh, hasn't seemed to be too popular

    8. balint84
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      A) play ASM from bench
      B) sell Rod to Zaha for a hit

      Hw long James Rod will be out?

    9. Zenith UK
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 2 days ago

      I made this wildcard team this week;

      Martinez
      Chilwell, Lamptey, Kilman
      Salah, Rashford, Son, Rodriguez, McGinn
      Kane, DCL

      Steele, Cresswell, KWP, Brewster (0.3M itb)

      However it now seems that Rodriguez is out for at least one week. My bench for this week isn't exactly suited to replace Hamez so do I one week punt someone and if so, who? This does however mean losing 0.1M on him as he's 8.0 right now and my sell value is 7.9

      Thoughts please?

      1. tiltkamp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Hold and play Brewster

        1. Zenith UK
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          I did think about this (even though he's third on my bench)

      2. Podorsky
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 2 days ago

        I am in the exact same position. Thinking on doing a 1 week punt on Zaha, has a good fixture, on penalties etc.

        1. Zenith UK
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          I'm feeling this option quite a bit, appreciate that

    10. Zlatan F.C
        1 month, 2 days ago

        Guys what do i do with this team? 5.5m in the bank 1FT

        Martinez
        Saiss Robbo Lamptey
        Salah(c) Foden Son Grealish Podence
        DCL Jimenez

        James Brewster Ferguson

        1. Gooner Kebab
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Brewster to Kane?

          1. Zlatan F.C
              1 month, 2 days ago

              Not enough. Could do Brewster and Podence to Kane and Bissouma (-4)

          2. tiltkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Podence > Bruno

            1. Bubbles1985
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 2 days ago

              This.

        2. Teror
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Which 5.5 mid to get on wildcard? Podence or Harrison?

          1. tiltkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Harrison

          2. FISSH
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Just get soucek

          3. Wiseman Resistant ⚽⚠
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Saka

        3. Gooner Kebab
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Need a 4.5 def to replace Dunne (have Lamptey and Taylor)

          a) Targett
          b) Konsa
          c) Ayling
          d) Dallas

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Targett (Konsa is 4.6)

        4. FISSH
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Which player do I start?

          A) Dallas (avl)
          B) Chillwell (mun)
          C) bissouma (WBA)

          1. Bubbles1985
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 2 days ago

            B

          2. Tonyawesome69
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 2 days ago

            C

          3. Pukkipartyy
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 2 days ago

            b

        5. Bubbles1985
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 2 days ago

          Squad

          Martinez
          TAA Lamptey PVA
          Son Sterling(vc) Salah(c) Barkley
          Jimenez DCL Brewster

          Forster Ayling Soucek Masuaku

          I have 0.1itb left with 0ft

          Thoughts please?

          Cheers!

          1. Gooner Kebab
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 2 days ago

            gtg

          2. Tonyawesome69
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 2 days ago

            GTG

          3. Bubbles1985
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 2 days ago

            That's what i thought!

            GL!

          4. tiltkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            1 month, 2 days ago

            PVA back this week?

        6. TNB
            1 month, 2 days ago

            Pick one:

            A) Castagne (Arsenal away)
            B) Mitchell (Fulham away)

            1. Tonyawesome69
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 2 days ago

              Castagne - nailed to start

            2. Gooner Kebab
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 2 days ago

              B if he plays

          • parkin' the bus
              1 month, 2 days ago

              Barkley or Trossard, and why?

              1. Bubbles1985
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 2 days ago

                Barkley - greedy fukker

              2. Zenith UK
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 2 days ago

                Neither. McGinn

            • Flair
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              1 month, 2 days ago

              Why, just why is Lampard playing Pulisic on the right... is it that difficult to play your best LW at LW? Baffling manager.

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 2 days ago

                Loves Mount

              2. lilmessipran
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 2 days ago

                To accomodate Mount I suppose, that should inevitably change once ziyech is fit to start possibly even this week

                1. Pukki Party
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 2 days ago

                  Lampard would fit Mount in a front 3 even if he had the options of playing C Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski and Mo Salah.

                2. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
                  • 9 Years
                  1 month, 2 days ago

                  Should be accommodating pulisic over mount every day

            • Pukki Party
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 2 days ago

              Anything worth a transfer or gtg? 0.9itb 1ft. Starting 11 and bench correct? Thanks

              Martinez
              TAA Robbo Ayling
              Salah Son Pulisic Trossard
              Jimenez DCL Watkins

              Button Soucek Lewis Taylor

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 2 days ago

                GTG

                1. Pukki Party
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 2 days ago

                  Cheers.

            • stu92
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 2 days ago

              A) Hold Mings (0.1 value in him, hoping for another price rise)
              B) Get Konsa
              C) Get Targett

              On a wildcard so can go any one.

            • thomashl
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 2 days ago

              Final WC draft – what's wrong with it?

              Martinez
              Chilwell Robbo Kilman Lamptey
              Son Salah(c) Grealish
              DCL Watkins Kane
              (Verrips - Bissouma Cresswell Rodriguez) 0.3 itb

              1. thomashl
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 2 days ago

                Watkins –> Antonio in GW8 is the plan.
                Quite fancy a two-week punt on him with those fixtures

                1. Pukki Party
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 2 days ago

                  Nice team, i also punted on Watkins last week with Antonio transfer in mind.

                  1. thomashl
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 3 Years
                    1 month, 2 days ago

                    Thanks mate! At least I like the look of the team now, whereas I hated it before, haha.

              2. stu92
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 2 days ago

                Looks good, will get points. Would maybe go Maupay etc over Watkins if you already have Grealish but don't htink you can afford.

                1. thomashl
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 2 days ago

                  Cheers mate. Yeah, Maupay is just out of reach unfortunately.
                  For two weeks I'm not that bothered, might be a differential double up.

                  Bring the gameweek on!!

              3. Tonyawesome69
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 2 days ago

                Looks fine to me

                1. thomashl
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 2 days ago

                  Ah, relieved to hear that, thanks!

              4. Zenith UK
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 2 days ago

                Triple Villa is my only concern

                1. thomashl
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 2 days ago

                  See what you mean, but Watkins is only a two week punt, will bring Antonio in for GW8 (if fit ofc).

                  The alternative is going down to Brewster, but wouldn't quite know how to spend the money as I would want to keep Rodriguez anyways.

                  1. Zenith UK
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 2 days ago

                    Makes sense mate, we've both completed our WCs this week with 0.3M left 🙂

                    1. thomashl
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 3 Years
                      1 month, 2 days ago

                      That's a good omen, bruv!

            • MrCloppity
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 2 days ago

              Pereira out
              Barkley in
              -4?
              Thoughts

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 2 days ago

                No