Football Index

Unpredictable start to the FPL season making Football Index decisions hard to call


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Six matches into the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season and it’s fair to say that many managers are not happy.

The football has been so unpredictable, and the results so varied, that finding players producing consistent returns, week in, week out, has proved… tricky.

In fact, it’s boiled down to owning Harry Kane. Or Son Heung-min. And ideally both.

Even FPL experts have been left, at best, bemused.

So imagine what it’s like for someone trying to use FPL to guide his moves in another setting, Football Index.

In case you’re still not sure, Football Index (FI) is a kind of stock market where people use real money to bet on football.

You buy shares in individual players whose value can rise or fall depending on their performance both on and off the field. I’m new to FI and it’s beginning to show.

I’m still in profit, but it’s a figure in decline at present with the widespread unpredictability the season has brought so far.

Dividends – money paid out for the performance or media profile of my players – have been my saviour. Without them, I’d be making a loss right now.

I need to shake up my portfolio. Bring in new faces.

The problem is, only two of the seven players I currently own shares in would make me a profit if I were to sell.

It’s not like these players are doing badly. I own FI shares in three of the top 10 FPL forwards – Danny Ings, Raul Jimenez and Callum Wilson.

All three have had solid starts to the season, scoring four goals apiece. But it’s beginning to dawn on me that solid just doesn’t cut it on FI.

Traders don’t look just for solid performances. They consider many other factors that have an impact on the Index. It’s a bit like the FPL tendency towards knee-jerk decisions that some managers can’t help but display. Slow and steady might win the race, but crash, bang wallop is also a strongly adopted approach on FI, with big haulers paying out big dividends and attracting big trader interest.

As a result, I have three players in good form who would make me a loss if I were to sell them today.

And the less said about Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the better.

My long-term bet in the Arsenal forward’s value has gotten off on the wrong foot, as Mikel Arteta continues to flirt with the idea of turning the Gunners into a David Moyes-like unit so intent on stopping the opposition that they forget how to actually play.

It’s a notion so dull that even Moyes doesn’t subscribe to it anymore, although Frank Lampard is another who seems to be getting a massive kick out of clean sheets.

Which means that another in my portfolio, Mason Mount, is just not cutting it at the moment with his reduced playing time.

He and Aubameyang are getting close to being sold now. The former should make me a profit, while the latter will not. At all. His sale will hurt, but it really needs to be done with Arteta’s current gameplan.

Then I can look to Fantasy Football Scout Premium Members Area and try to find the next big thing with the form and fixtures to direct my strategy on FI.

But it’s not going to be easy. The three teams with the best upcoming schedule are Crystal Palace (drab), Everton (squad issues) and Aston Villa (bubble burst?).

Chelsea and Manchester United are up there too and have Champions League football to offer the prospect of a tidy midweek dividend for decent performers.

But their players aren’t cheap and, as mentioned, Lampard’s current flirtation with owning a fleet of parked buses has compromised the otherwise excellent pedigree of his attackers.

Whatever I end up doing is likely to come with a short-term loss. But, with the bigger picture in good shape.


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389 Comments Post a Comment
  1. abaalan
    • 4 Years
    26 days, 4 hours ago

    2 free transfer, 0 ITB. Dont really know what to do and also dont want to waste a transfer, any ideas?:

    Martinez, 4.0
    Chilwell, Saiss, KWP, Lamptey, Mitchell
    Salah, Pullisic, Son, Grealish, Soucek
    Kane, Jimenez, Maupay

    Maupay is only one i really would like to lose

    1. thegaffer82
      • 9 Years
      26 days, 4 hours ago

      Maupay > Bamford looks a very easy swap to me. Then bank the other for next week. Nice team!

      1. abaalan
        • 4 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        THanks!!
        Bit worried that Bamford will just be a flash in the pan. (Not that Maupay has done much since i owned him)

    2. ajay_kl +42
      • 9 Years
      26 days, 4 hours ago

      Maupay to Bamford?

    3. Whiskerz
      • 7 Years
      26 days, 4 hours ago

      Additional to the Bamford option, you could downgrade Soucek to free up funds for future moves. To a playing 4.4

  2. Fozzyb34r
    • 5 Years
    26 days, 4 hours ago

    Jamez -> Pulisic for free? Got 2 FT so want to use one of them. Go for this or is there anyone better, got 8.8 ITB

    1. No Professionals
      • 3 Years
      26 days, 4 hours ago

      8.8itb?!

      8.8?!

      8

      Point

      8?!??

      1. Fozzyb34r
        • 5 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Haha slightly wrong from me. 8.8 to spend on a mid

        1. No Professionals
          • 3 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          ah ok, thought you were insane.

        2. No Professionals
          • 3 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          you must have a more urgent transfer than removing Hamez. what is your team?

  3. thegaffer82
    • 9 Years
    26 days, 4 hours ago

    Thinking I may just save my transfer this week and then do some kind of a mini-WC for a -4 next week and remove Podence, Justin and TAA. But, some part of me thinks I should improve my first XI for this week by using my FT. Would be interested to know what others would do with my team?

    .................Martinez
    .......TAA - Justin - Saiss
    Salah - Son - Pulisic - J-Rod - Podence
    ..........(K)ane - DCL
    Bench: Brewster - Lamptey - Mitchell
    1FT & 0.7ITB

    A) Save FT
    B) Podence > Barkley
    C) Justin > Ayling
    D) TAA > Chilwell (bank 2.3m for upgrades next week)

    1. Ohhhhh Gary Macca!
      • 6 Years
      26 days, 4 hours ago

      D

    2. Black Knights
      • 8 Years
      26 days, 4 hours ago

      I also have TAA, Podence, and 2 FTs and feel like i keep both or change both.

      I'd begun leaning towards keeping but if Antonio is fit, i'm not so sure. Would love to just change Podence but i have nothing itb so i'm changing a cheap defender to a WHU one.

  4. robt
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    26 days, 4 hours ago

    My team;

    McCarthy (Steer)
    Robbo Saiss Chilwell (Dallas Mitchell)
    Salah Zaha Pulisic Grealish JRod
    Kane DCL (Brewster)
    (3-5-2)

    I have 2 FT but 0 ITB. Very tempted to burn 1 FT and have 2 for next week. Never burnt a FT before but quite happy with team for 1 GW and want to keep 2 FT for next GW as fixtures turn. What am I missing??

    1. thegaffer82
      • 9 Years
      26 days, 4 hours ago

      Don't burn the transfer.

      I'd swap Steer out rather than burn. It's doubtful, but there is a small chance you might want 3 Villa this season (Martinez, Konsa/Mings, Barkley, Grealish & even Watkins look decent picks).

      Steer > Forster maybe?

      1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
        • 4 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        I'd agree, Forster probably gonna rise in price as well

      2. Carlton P
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        This

      3. robt
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Great shout, thank you.

  5. BarryManilows
      26 days, 4 hours ago

      Whoever has cards captain him this week he will haul massively

      1. BarryManilows
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          *Vardy

        • thegaffer82
          • 9 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          who?

      2. Dacra
        • 6 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Podence to Rashford for free?

        Was going to free up cash from defence and get Bruno with 2x FT next week, but could just get Rash now instead?

        1. DA Minnion
          • 8 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Worth a shot.

        2. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
          • 4 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Sounds good

        3. thegaffer82
          • 9 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Nice amount of cash you've got banked there.

          That's about as good a transfer as there is. Podence unlikely to punish you, and Rashford is probably in the form of his life right now

      3. JenkoJunko
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Afternoon all! Just looking for some advice on this lot....

        Steer Mcarthy
        TAA Justin Mitchell Tierney Enda
        Salah Foden JRod Barnes Bissouma
        Werner DCL Bamford

        Messed up big time last GW as didn't realise there was a Friday night game so missed deadline! Stinker! I was going to WC. So... got 2FTs and 3.3 ITB.

        Still WC? Who would you look to get rid of? What forward makes way for Kane? Many thanks, any advice welcome as not had a good start at all! Thanks and GL.

      4. DA Minnion
        • 8 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Fulham and West Brom on pay per view on Monday night. Should be paying people to watch it not charging.

        1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
          • 4 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          😆

      5. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
        • 4 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        What to do here?
        McCarthy (Steer)
        TAA Saiss KWP(Justin)(Mitchell)
        Salah Son Grealish Hamez (Bissouma)
        Kane Ings Maupay

        1ft,0.2 itb

        A) Maupay to Bamford/Antonio
        B) TAA to Chilwell

        If I save then I'll probably do A and B both next week anyway.

      6. Tmel
        • 9 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Martinez
        James Saiss TAA
        Podence Salah Son Foden
        Kane DCL Jimenez
        (Steer Burke Lamptey Mitchell)

        1.3ITB & 2FT

        a) James > Chilwell
        b) Podence > Barkley
        c) Burke > Soucek
        d) James & Podence > Coufal & Grealish

        1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
          • 4 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Podence to Bowen maybe?

        2. thegaffer82
          • 9 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          a) looks tasty

      7. fakelund
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Struggling with who to start at the back this week... I know Coufal is playing Liverpool, but my gut is telling me to start him... thoughts?

        Currently on:

        Martinez
        Chilwell - Coufal - Saiss
        Zaha - Barkley - Son - Trossard - Salah (c)
        DCL - Kane

        (4.0 - Brewster - Konsa - Lamptey)

        1. The Road to Turfdom
          • 4 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Would start Konsa

        2. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
          • 4 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Have to start Konsa

          Why captain Salah if you think Coufal will do well? assist chance?

          1. fakelund
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Assist chance, yeah. Not expecting CS from Coufal, Konsa or Lamptey really...

            1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
              • 4 Years
              26 days, 4 hours ago

              Well CS are unpredictable these days anyway but you gotta play the odds and Villa surely have the best chance among those 3 so Konsa imo and he even has goal threat himself.
              But if you have a serious gut feeling about Coufal then I can understand!

      8. You've got red on you.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Do you think I should use this week's transfer for:

        a) Trossard ----> Bowen/Barkley/someone else

        b) Rodriguez ---> Grealish

        c) -4 Trossard + Rodrigues/Jimenez/DCL ---> Grealish + 6.9mid/7.5for/6.5for

      9. faux_C
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Maupay to Antonio - a week too soon?

        1. Hansel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Yes

      10. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Is Rashford playing up top or out wide? Any change likely with Martial back

        1. You've got red on you.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Hard to say whether United will keep the diamond. Seems a different formation every week.

          1. Hansel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            OK, thanks

      11. thegaffer82
        • 9 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Haven't managed to watch many WHam games this season - just caught them on MOTD only.

        How's Bowen looking? Is he a genuine goalscoring threat? Or do you think his 3 goals so far are a bit anomalous?

        I'm asking because I'm lining up an exit strategy for Podence and have only 6.3 to spend on a replacement...

        Currently on Barkley, but I've been burned by him in both an Everton and a Chelsea shirt. Is Bowen a better option?

        1. PogBruno
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Bowen no brainer with the fixtures coming up

        2. You've got red on you.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Bowen has been recommended to me by a lot of people on here for my Trossard replacement.

        3. HashAttack
          • 3 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          1 goal and 4 assists in 900 minutes last season and that was when he was bedding into the team

      12. PogBruno
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        26 days, 4 hours ago

        Why does every team (or most) seem to have a go at Liverpool and thus leave gaps at the other end for thier attackers, and the same teams look like staying deep and park against likes of city and United?

        Is it because of the way Liverpool is setup?

        1. thegaffer82
          • 9 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Because Liverpool DF are there to be got at right now.

          The teams in the Prem spend a long time scouting teams and working on strategy, so I'm sure it's not a coincidence.

          Villa certainly did well out of it!

        2. afcblegend
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Do you mean just this season? I think it's more to do with the teams each has played if you compare Liverpool vs City.

          Last couple of seasons I would say most teams had the same tactics against both - sit deep and pray for a goal on the counter.

          1. Nomar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            26 days, 3 hours ago

            Last season against Liverpool pre-lockdown it was just pray, and hope they went easy on you.

      13. Zlatan F.C
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Would you do Podence to Pulisic this week or Brewster to Antonio next week? 3.3m in the bank 1FT

          Martinez
          Robbo Saiss James
          Salah Son Foden Grealish Podence
          DCL Kane

          Forster Lamptey Brewster Ferguson

          1. You've got red on you.
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Brewster to Antonio

        • JURGENAUT
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Transfer thoughts?

          McCarthy
          Robbo / Saiss / Justin
          Salah / Son / Zaha / Grealish
          Kane / Ings / DCL

          Forster / Lamptey / Mitchell / Stephens

          0.2 itb.

        • jam sandwich
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          good to go? 1FT 0.6ITB

          Martinez
          Robertson - Chilwell - Saiss
          Salah (c) - Son (v) - Pulisic - Rodriguez
          Kane - DCL - Bamford

          Steer - Bissouma - Lamptey - Branthwaite

        • Bumbaclot
          • 9 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Hi guys best option here??

          Ryan
          Trent/Justin/targett
          Salah/kdb/son/podence
          DCL/Watkins/Werner

          Button/Dallas/kwp/soucek

          A. Werner and kdb to Kane and rashford
          B, Werner and Trent to Kane and chillwel
          C. Any other option anyone can think of

          1. You've got red on you.
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Werner and Podence ----> Bamford + Rashford

          2. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            I wouldn’t take werner out for the next few got good fixtures

        • Wolves Ay We
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          A) Foden and Fernandes
          B) Grealish and Rashford

          Which pair would you rather have?

          1. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            I’d say B then if Grealish isn’t performing get Foden instead of him

        • Ninjaa
          • 9 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Current front 8
          Salah Son Podence Jwp fodder
          Aguero DCL Adams

          1 ft. Obviously Aguero the priority to get out but for who???. Money no object.

          1. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Downgrade aguero this week then upgrade one of podence or JWP next gw

          2. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Your gonna want city players for GW10 onwards so I’d look at bringing in a city mid

        • JURGENAUT
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Transfer thoughts?

          McCarthy
          Robbo / Saiss / Justin
          Salah / Son / Zaha / Grealish
          Kane / Ings / DCL

          Forster / Lamptey / Mitchell / Stephens

          0.2 itb

          1. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            I’d sell zaha cause I don’t trust him but he is getting points so far this season and has good fixtures

            1. moz_1983
              • 8 Years
              26 days, 4 hours ago

              "he is getting points so far this season and has good fixtures" - sounds like a good reason not to sell him!

              1. Kloppcorn
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                26 days, 4 hours ago

                I just don’t trust zaha mate, he’s getting points atm but wouldn’t be suprised if he blanks for the next 5

          2. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            I’d probs bring Foden in for him

        • diesel001
          • 4 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Interesting that Lundstram has rejected a new contract at Sheffield United. Is he deserting a sinking ship? Wonder if anyone has let him / his agent know they want to sign him.

          1. Fit_to_drop
            • 1 Year
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            I think he feels a bit shortchanged that Wilder went out and bought a direct back-up/replacement for him when he (Lundstram) had played out of his skin for most of last season and was one of their leading players. Personally, I don't blame him.

          2. Le Bluff
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Heavily linked with West Ham.

        • ChickenTikkaMoSalah
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Martinez (Button)
          Robbo,Konsa,Kilman,Chilwell (Lamptey)
          Salah,Son,Pulisic,Grealish(Bissouma)
          Kane(C),DCL (Brewster)

          0.5 ITB, 1FT.

          Am I gtg?

          1. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Looks good to go mate save the transfer

        • vandebeek
          • 3 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          My team:
          Ryan
          TAA Chilwell Saiss
          Podence Salah Son Foden Havertz
          Kane DCL
          (Forster, Brewster, Lamptey, Ferguson)
          1FT, 1.0M itb
          A)Ryan to Mendy(others below 5?)
          B) Ferguson to Kilman
          C) keep

          1. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            B looks like Kilman has nailed down his spot until Jonny returns

        • Fit_to_drop
          • 1 Year
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Anyone fancy Rashford? They have a decent run from Arsenal onwards.

          I've been watching him closely prior to last nights hat-trick and he was starting to show a return to form.

          1. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            I’m deffo looking At him, saving my transfer this week to be able to do a double switch to bring him in

            1. Fit_to_drop
              • 1 Year
              26 days, 4 hours ago

              Exactly my move too. Cant take him this week.

          2. Le Bluff
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Looking at him or Bruno for GW 9 Wildcard.

          3. afcblegend
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Not for me but I think he's a good differential for a few weeks vs De Bruyne/Salah.

            1. Fit_to_drop
              • 1 Year
              26 days, 4 hours ago

              I see him outscoring both of those during that time anyway.

          4. HashAttack
            • 3 Years
            26 days, 3 hours ago

            Tempted to upgrade Hames to Rashford - good differential with just 7.5% ownership

        • Disturbed
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Best option under 4.8m to complete this defence? Was thinking Kilman but not sure how nailed he would be long term.

          Martinez Forster
          Robbo lamptey Dallas xxxx branthwaite

          1. Fit_to_drop
            • 1 Year
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Nathaniel Clyne at 4.5m. Has fixtures, now form and is cheap.

            1. Le Bluff
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              26 days, 4 hours ago

              Eh?! Looks like he's competing with Ward and Mitchell for that RB spot. Far from nailed.

              1. Kloppcorn
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                26 days, 4 hours ago

                Mitchell has been playing lb

              2. Kloppcorn
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                26 days, 4 hours ago

                But I agree isn’t nailed

              3. Fit_to_drop
                • 1 Year
                26 days, 4 hours ago

                Ward has been the weakest of the FB's at Palace this season. TM is a left back.

          2. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            I’d go Kilman mate cheap as chips, when he loses his spot which I don’t think for a while you can always transfer him out

            1. Fit_to_drop
              • 1 Year
              26 days, 4 hours ago

              Too many defensive options at Wolves at present (eventhough i own Saiss and Kilman since week1). For a defender in the 4.5-4.8 bracket, you want him playing.

              1. Kloppcorn
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                26 days, 4 hours ago

                Why would Nuno drop Kilman when their playing so well defensively? When Jonny comes back he’ll probably be dropped but he ain’t back for a while

        • makaveli70
          • 6 Years
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Play 1:
          KWP or Dallas

        • Fit_to_drop
          • 1 Year
          26 days, 4 hours ago

          Team and bench selection correct here? Cheers.

          GK: Martínez
          DEF: Saïss Robertson Chilwell
          MID: Zaha Son Salah Grealish
          FWD: Calvert-Lewin Kane Bamford

          BENCH: Forster Kilman (CRY) Mitchell (wol) Bissouma (tot)

          1. Kloppcorn
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            26 days, 4 hours ago

            Kilman in for zaha wolves are very good defensively

            1. Fit_to_drop
              • 1 Year
              26 days, 3 hours ago

              Cheers. I had Kilman and Saiss in for the game against NEW last week and was 3 mins away from a double clean sheet. But its risky so i dont mind hedging a bit this week on Zaha.