Pro Pundit Teams

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

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2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hulk Smash
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    A - Pulisic to Ziyech and roll a FT
    B - Saïss to

    1. Hulk Smash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      A - Pulisic to Ziyech and roll a FT
      B - Saïss to 5.2m def
      C - both but only 1 FT after international break

  2. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 8 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Grealish over Zaha for next 4-6 GW's?

    1. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Grealish 100%

      1. OneArseneWenger32
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 months, 6 days ago

        emotionally grealish but zaha has the fixtures to back it up

        1. DannyDrinkVodka
          • 1 Year
          5 months, 6 days ago

          Zaha always seems promising 5-6 GW in......it never works out

  3. Dr. Ante Pavlovic
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Would you rather have Semedo vs Leicester away and Soton at home or Masuaku(-4) who plays Fulham and SHU next two gameweeks?

    1. Hulk Smash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      I'd stick with Semedo as Masuaku isn't nailed if West Ham switch to a back four

  4. Old Bull
    • 7 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Ings to Bamford for -4 Yes or No?

    1. Garth Marenghi
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Not for me

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Not unless you have no bench.

  5. DycheDycheBaby
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Martinez
    Kilman, Cresswell, Chilly
    Son, Salah, Grealish, Zaha
    Kane, Ings, DCL
    Forster, Bissouma, Konsa, Saiss

    1FT. 0.6itb. Pick one:
    a) Save FT for the IB. Bench Ings, play Bissouma.
    b) Ings --> Wilson/Bamford
    c) Ings --> Jiminez
    c) Bissouma/Ings --> Ziyech/Brewster for -4

    1. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Ings -> Wilson

  6. boroie
    • 2 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Really have no idea what to do here... please help

    2FT, 0.0 ITB

    McCarthy
    TAA Chilwell Reguillon* KWP
    Son(VC) Salah Sterling Prodence
    Kane(C) Wilson

    Nyland; Kilman Brewster Bissouma

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 6 days ago

      I'd just stay where you are ; its a good team.

      1. boroie
        • 2 Years
        5 months, 6 days ago

        Surely may as well use one of the 2 transfers I have though.

        A - Downgrade TAA to leave myself with cash to manouvre next week

        B - Get rid of Reguillon due to potential doubt this weekend plus awful fixture list after this GW

        C - Get rid of Sterling due to poor form

        D - other

  7. Kasper the ghost keeper
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Play one
    A) Justin
    B) Taylor
    C) Saiss

    1. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Have A and B and starting A

  8. MattysFantasyFooty
    • 7 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    TAA to Chilwell or Bellerin?
    Jiminez to Werner or Vardy?

    1. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Chilwell Werner

  9. COK3Y5MURF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Which pair?

    A) Chilwell + Martial
    B) Zouma + Werner

    1. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      A martial could be a great captaincy pick for GW9

    2. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      B, simply because you can't trust united at the moment.

      1. Bushwhacker
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 6 days ago

        This

    3. Rondon9
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      B

    4. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      B

  10. Rondon9
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Hey gents I need some help

    Martinez
    Robbo TAA Semedo
    Salah Grealish Son Podence
    Kane DCL Bamford

    4m - Lamptey Mitchell Reed

    1.1m ITB

    A Robbo/TAA -> Chilwell (roll other FT)
    B Robbo/TAA Podence -> Bowen/Ziyech 2FT

    Cheers

    1. Rondon9
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      B is with Chilwell as well 😛

  11. AnfieldLad
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Wow Chilwell's rising fast. I didn't think he'd rise tonight, but looks like he will?

    1. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      He was around 60 a few hours ago. I've just done the transfer to bring him in

      1. AnfieldLad
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 months, 6 days ago

        Yeah I'm doing it now

    2. Dele
      • 4 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Is he rising?

  12. Dele
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    2FT should I transfer Robbo & Dunne >>> Chilwell & Cresswell

    1. AnfieldLad
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Depends how good you backline is but probably just Robbo -> Chilwell and have 2FT over IB for me

      1. Tonyawesome69 WC31 & FH…
        • 2 Years
        5 months, 6 days ago

        +1

  13. Pickle juice
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Werner or grealish for next 4/5 gameweels ???

    1. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      I actually think Grealish for the extra value

  14. Puyol Pants Up
    • 6 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    What to do here?

    Johnstone, 4.0
    TAA, KWP, Dallas, Targett, Lamptey
    Salah, Sterling, Grealish, Barnes, 4.5
    Kane, DCL, Maupay

    2 FT, 0.0 ITB

    Barnes to Bowen a good move here?

    1. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      perhaps wilson for maupay but he does have a good fixture this gw if he plays, toss up really could swap a defender out

  15. MattysFantasyFooty
    • 7 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Who are the biggest priorities to get rid of, I have two free transfers with 0.4 in the bank

    TAA
    Saiss
    Justin
    Mitchell
    Trossard
    Jiminez

    1. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Jimenez for me, followed by Saiss

    2. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Trossard

  16. Dr. Ante Pavlovic
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Where can I find the pressers schedule?

  17. Pukkipartyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Why are everyone allways so scared of hits here? If u take a hit it dosent matter If u dont win it back straight away. If u bring in player thath has 3-5 good gws then so what, if its for a hit.

    I have taken -4 / -8 and even -12 this season and im about 400k overall. Not good but not toi bad, and same time my team value is over 104.5m wich will help on future.

    Im trying to say, -4 here and -8 there isnt end of the world.

    1. Dr. Ante Pavlovic
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Agree

    2. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 6 days ago

      104.5?!! That is remarkable

    3. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      This manager disagrees with your strategy. 😉

      https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/2935529/history

      1. Pukkipartyy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        5 months, 6 days ago

        Yeah surely its best not to take hits 😀 but It isnt so bad how people here allways talk. "For -4 are crazyyy" If u know what i mean.

      2. Major League Shocker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 6 days ago

        His history shows one prior season with 4.8m OR.

        Surely he set up a number of different teams, some of which are doing quite badly?

        1. Ógie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          5 months, 6 days ago

          Yeah it is suspect when you see something like that alright but without any proof lets give him the benefit of the doubt.

          Hopefully fpl do scrutinize managers especially those in the higher echelons for cheating the game.
          Imo they should introduce life bans for that kinda thing.

          1. Major League Shocker
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            5 months, 6 days ago

            They should, but they don't. At the end of last season they deleted about 0.01% of the teams ahead of me, moving my rank up a negligible amount. If they hadn't deleted the early #1 for the racist comment, no one would have noticed.

    4. MattysFantasyFooty
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      i agree with you until you said -12, you're incredibly lucky to get away with those kind of hits unless you have a tonne of injuries. At the best of times I don't like -8s but over the season i do tally about 28 to 40 points worth of hits.

      1. Pukkipartyy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        5 months, 6 days ago

        The week i took -12, was for the Spurs boys and scored i 91pts. Ofc u need to be smart with the transfers.

        1. MattysFantasyFooty
          • 7 Years
          5 months, 6 days ago

          true but -12 isn't about being smart at that point it's incredible risk especially at the start of the season where if you get it wrong you're climbing your way back to where you were. More often than not a -12 hit will not pay off it's far too risky.

        2. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          5 months, 6 days ago

          The problem is, you can't get it right all season. So many hits backfire horribly. And once you get an ideal team, you need to give them time to realize their equity.

  18. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Do you guys happen to know if Chilwell will rise tonight? Currently on 90.2 on FPL statistics!

    1. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Yep

  19. Pickle juice
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    No love for reece James ???

  20. Luggy10
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Opinions please...
    Both pairs 16.7m
    A. Zaha & Wener
    B. Zyech & Msrtial.

    Thanks.

    1. Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      A for me

      1. OneArseneWenger32
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 months, 6 days ago

        rashford and bowen

        1. Luggy10
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          5 months, 6 days ago

          Rash & Bowen both mids.
          Need 1 mid & 1 striker.

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      A just

  21. Gandalf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Gw8: Havertz to one of Zaha/Grealish

    Gw9: hold

    Gw10: Jiménez + Burke > Antonio + Grealish/Zaha.

    Sound ok? Which of Zaha (LEE, bur) or Grealish (ars, BHA) to get in first for next 2 gameweeks?

    Current team:
    4.5 4.0
    TAA Chilwell Zouma Justin 4.0
    Salah Son Havertz Soucek Burke
    Kane Jiménez Wilson

    1. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Greals

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Get Grealish, keep Grealish.

      Easy decision.

  22. Bobby Digital
    • 3 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Team in good shape? Any fires that I need to put out in the near future?

    McCarthy Steer
    Robbo Dier Chilwell (Mitchell Douglas)
    Salah Son Podence Barnes (Bissouma)
    Werner Vardy Mitro

    1.9itb and 0ft. WC intact.

  23. Pépé Pig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Who scores more this week:

    A) Cresswell (FUL)
    B) Werner (SHU)

    1. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Werner

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      B

    3. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Timo

      1. OneArseneWenger32
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 months, 6 days ago

        aaron..chelsea will win but sheff wont concede many

  24. Luton_Fan
    • 11 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Team
    Martinez
    Robbo*, lamptey, kwp
    Son, salah, sterling, trossard, grealish
    Bamford, kane
    Subs: dallas, kilman, brewster

    2fts. About to pull trigger on:

    robbo to chilwell
    Trossard to zaha

    Yay or nay?

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Yay

      1. OneArseneWenger32
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 months, 6 days ago

        good moves

        1. Luton_Fan
          • 11 Years
          5 months, 6 days ago

          Thx.just know robbo and tross will explode once i sell

  25. Oliver Tockman
    • 6 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Is Lampard holding a presser before tomorrow’s deadline? Cheers

  26. La Roja
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    How’s she looking?

    Martinez
    Lamptey* Robby Coufal Zouma
    Ziyech Son Salah
    Kane Jimmy DCL

    Forster Barkley Justin Burke

  27. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Do you guys think Pulisic will drop tonight? On 72.3 at the moment on FPL statistics? Sorry quite knew to how the price system works.

    1. Will J 256
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      5 months, 6 days ago

      *new

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Nope

  28. Puyol Pants Up
    • 6 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Is Jared Bowen a good pick?

  29. Luton_Fan
    • 11 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Yep

    1. La Roja
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Nope

      1. OneArseneWenger32
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 months, 6 days ago

        why not?

        1. Luton_Fan
          • 11 Years
          5 months, 6 days ago

          Not sure

  30. Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    5 months, 6 days ago

    Looking okay? 0FT 1.6 ITB. Saiss likely next out.

    Martinez (Steer)
    Robbo Coufal Lamptey (Saiss Mitchell)
    Salah Son(c) Ziyech JRodriguez Podence
    Kane DCL (Davis)

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      5 months, 6 days ago

      Looks good